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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 3, 2018 6:09:33 GMT -5
If Chavis can be an average-range LF with an above-avg arm and plays avg to soli-avg defense, with a .260/.350/.500 line, I’d probably be OK with that, depending on what it takes to extend JBJ. I really think we all take Jackie’s defense for granted, to an extent. There’s a lot to be said for having three CFs in the OF. OTOH, Chavis at $500K to $1.5M over 3-4 years instead of paying JBJ 3/$45M or 4/$60M if he rediscovers his offensive form of ‘16...probably a good place to save money. It’s going to be tough in 2020 when they need to reset the lux tax. Going to be some really tough choices, and I’m gonna miss some of the guys who leave, especially those from this homegrown core. Wow you'd be OK with a guy that would be what a 4 war player? Says every team in Baseball! If Chavis can find a dang position, I'd view him a lot differently and almost untouchable. Here's to hoping LF is the one that actually works out for him. He's still valuable as a DH, but the Sox can't replace JDM's bat, so they'll probably need to find a way to keep him in Boston as a DH. Finding a position might be the key in keeping Chavis in Boston versus selling high on him as a trade chip.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 3, 2018 14:24:51 GMT -5
CF. JBJ is the one who eventually goes. If Chavis can be an average-range LF with an above-avg arm and plays avg to soli-avg defense, with a .260/.350/.500 line, I’d probably be OK with that, depending on what it takes to extend JBJ. I really think we all take Jackie’s defense for granted, to an extent. There’s a lot to be said for having three CFs in the OF. OTOH, Chavis at $500K to $1.5M over 3-4 years instead of paying JBJ 3/$45M or 4/$60M if he rediscovers his offensive form of ‘16...probably a good place to save money. It’s going to be tough in 2020 when they need to reset the lux tax. Going to be some really tough choices, and I’m gonna miss some of the guys who leave, especially those from this homegrown core. Yeah I too would be ok with Chavis being a borderline top ten OF in baseball.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 3, 2018 17:31:54 GMT -5
Wow you'd be OK with a guy that would be what a 4 war player? Says every team in Baseball! If Chavis can find a dang position, I'd view him a lot differently and almost untouchable. Here's to hoping LF is the one that actually works out for him. He's still valuable as a DH, but the Sox can't replace JDM's bat, so they'll probably need to find a way to keep him in Boston as a DH. Finding a position might be the key in keeping Chavis in Boston versus selling high on him as a trade chip. You seem to be taking this that Chavis is soo bad everywhere he plays they just keep trying to find a new position. I think that is wrong! More like his bat is so good and we have a stacked line-up they are trying to find a way to get him into the line-up. Even if there's no room, if he can play the OF, 3B, 2B,1B, and DH he can be a weapon next year. For a guy that seems to be so worried about D, didn't you say we should sign Daniel Murphy? I guess I'm just confused because current day Murphy is setting the bar really low for 2B D. He was - 18 DRS in 71 games last year at 2B.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2018 18:02:15 GMT -5
Yeah he's not a great defensive 3B but I'm not sure he's such a butcher there that he NEEDS to move. The issue is more that they're not going to have to look hard to find someone better there, putting more pressure on the bat. His best bet is probably to learn to play a few positions adequately, allowing him to fit in as needed.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 3, 2018 19:52:07 GMT -5
If Chavis can find a dang position, I'd view him a lot differently and almost untouchable. Here's to hoping LF is the one that actually works out for him. He's still valuable as a DH, but the Sox can't replace JDM's bat, so they'll probably need to find a way to keep him in Boston as a DH. Finding a position might be the key in keeping Chavis in Boston versus selling high on him as a trade chip. You seem to be taking this that Chavis is soo bad everywhere he plays they just keep trying to find a new position. I think that is wrong! More like his bat is so good and we have a stacked line-up they are trying to find a way to get him into the line-up. Even if there's no room, if he can play the OF, 3B, 2B,1B, and DH he can be a weapon next year. For a guy that seems to be so worried about D, didn't you say we should sign Daniel Murphy? I guess I'm just confused because current day Murphy is setting the bar really low for 2B D. He was - 18 DRS in 71 games last year at 2B. I want Murphy so he can play first base for the Sox.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 3, 2018 20:29:06 GMT -5
I can't believe that the JBJ haterz are still alive and want to ship him out of town! It's just mind boggling. I think I may be JBJ's biggest defender on the board, and I think they may well need to trade him next winter, going into his walk year, to stay under the tax limit after extending Xander and Sale. One way to do that is with a Chavis / Mookie / Benny OF.
It's pretty clear that he'll never be the starting 3B on this team, with Devers ahead of him and Dalbec behind him. So the question becomes: is he more valuable as trade bait, in LF, or at 1B?
FWIW, Clay Davenport's Peak Translations project him to be a solid-average hitter as a corner OFer, a bit below average as a 1B. You're not going to have a potential All-Star at every position, and he looks like he'd be an adequate solution in LF as a rookie, for no money.
A better scenario is that he makes enough progress defensively at 3B for some team to see him as a big-time solution. The bat plays much better there, of course. If he can get to be an average defender, he's a first division starter.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 4, 2018 13:12:36 GMT -5
Yeah, saying that Bradley may be traded in the next couple years at this point is more an acknowledgment that they're not going to be able to keep this core together forever.
Consider that Mookie ($10.5M), Bogaerts ($7.05M), JBJ ($6.1M) and, ERod ($2.375M) alone are projected to jump from costing $26.025M this year to $43.3M next year. Sale, Porcello, Bogaerts are all free agents after 2019. There's going to be an opportunity for a league minimum guy like Chavis at some point if he earns it. Question, as we're discussing, will be where, and that's going to depend a lot on who stays and who goes, and that's why at this point, gaining versatility may be his best bet.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 5, 2018 19:34:55 GMT -5
If Chavis can be an average-range LF with an above-avg arm and plays avg to soli-avg defense, with a .260/.350/.500 line, I’d probably be OK with that, depending on what it takes to extend JBJ. I really think we all take Jackie’s defense for granted, to an extent. There’s a lot to be said for having three CFs in the OF. OTOH, Chavis at $500K to $1.5M over 3-4 years instead of paying JBJ 3/$45M or 4/$60M if he rediscovers his offensive form of ‘16...probably a good place to save money. It’s going to be tough in 2020 when they need to reset the lux tax. Going to be some really tough choices, and I’m gonna miss some of the guys who leave, especially those from this homegrown core. Wow you'd be OK with a guy that would be what a 4 war player? Says every team in Baseball! Benintendi put up 4.3 WAR with superior defense and much better base running. I’d guess that season from Chavis would probably run around 3.5 fWAR. And yeah, that’s about what they’d need to make up for the loss of JBJ’s production and the ripple effect on the OF defense. We’re talking about *the specific condition in which it makes sense to trade JBJ* during their competitive window.
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Post by telson13 on Nov 5, 2018 19:57:51 GMT -5
If Chavis can be an average-range LF with an above-avg arm and plays avg to soli-avg defense, with a .260/.350/.500 line, I’d probably be OK with that, depending on what it takes to extend JBJ. I really think we all take Jackie’s defense for granted, to an extent. There’s a lot to be said for having three CFs in the OF. OTOH, Chavis at $500K to $1.5M over 3-4 years instead of paying JBJ 3/$45M or 4/$60M if he rediscovers his offensive form of ‘16...probably a good place to save money. It’s going to be tough in 2020 when they need to reset the lux tax. Going to be some really tough choices, and I’m gonna miss some of the guys who leave, especially those from this homegrown core. Yeah I too would be ok with Chavis being a borderline top ten OF in baseball. I’d be ecstatic with it, in a vacuum. My point is that moving Benintendi to CF probably hurts the defense significantly, meaning steps down in both CF and LF. JBJ is a 2.5 WAR player. I think they’d need Chavis to approximate Beni’s 122 wRC+, since his defense and baserunning (especially) would be steps down, or be roughly a 3.5-WAR player. Of course, there’s always the consideration of return, so they could theoretically get back MLB talent rather than prospects and make up the difference that way. But for me to *be OK with trading JBJ and installing Chavis in LF*, yeah...that’s the point of the exaggerated slash line. It was intended to be somewhat tongue-in-cheek, because he’s never thrown up a 0.090 IsoD. My point was, I’d want superior production if they moved JBJ early. He’s reliable but not spectacular overall, and has a synergistic effect on their OF defense. That reliability (like Porcello’s) has added value to a team in win-now mode.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 6, 2018 2:45:23 GMT -5
Wow you'd be OK with a guy that would be what a 4 war player? Says every team in Baseball! Benintendi put up 4.3 WAR with superior defense and much better base running. I’d guess that season from Chavis would probably run around 3.5 fWAR. And yeah, that’s about what they’d need to make up for the loss of JBJ’s production and the ripple effect on the OF defense. We’re talking about *the specific condition in which it makes sense to trade JBJ* during their competitive window. I guess I don't get that, Bradley has only had one season over that war total, I use bwar. Yea you'd downgrade D, but your offense would see a major uptick. Benintendi likely increases his war at CF. You'd would be talking about an upgrade, a rather big one. Not a break even type deal, just adding more offensive and less D.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 6, 2018 6:32:20 GMT -5
Maybe Chavis is the FO Pearce replacement. Plus more. There is no way Pearce signs for one year. I wondering who is the closer. I don’t feel good about this idea of Barnes or Brasier. I noticed in the playoffs Brasier has trouble getting swings and misses. The best one was Kelly. They all can get strikeouts but I am talking consistingly.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 6, 2018 11:45:05 GMT -5
Maybe Chavis is the FO Pearce replacement. Plus more. There is no way Pearce signs for one year. I wondering who is the closer. I don’t feel good about this idea of Barnes or Brasier. I noticed in the playoffs Brasier has trouble getting swings and misses. The best one was Kelly. They all can get strikeouts but I am talking consistingly. Yeah, agree with this. If we lose Kimbrel, closer is vacant. Brasier was a find, but I think overworked as the season went on. Barnes is either great or has control issues...not yet the near guarantee shutdown guy. Britton would be a get and maybe save us a few million bucks. Kelly has a rare arm. Keep him until at least mid-season or trade deadline to allow any minor league guys to emerge. I am a little concerned with Chavis' wrist injury as it has long persisted...tendon, ligament? ..If so, related to past PED? Pearce has been on a lot of teams. He has found a home. Two years would be ok with me.
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Post by jimed14 on Nov 13, 2018 13:04:47 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 26, 2018 11:45:52 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Nov 29, 2018 23:51:35 GMT -5
Benintendi put up 4.3 WAR with superior defense and much better base running. I’d guess that season from Chavis would probably run around 3.5 fWAR. And yeah, that’s about what they’d need to make up for the loss of JBJ’s production and the ripple effect on the OF defense. We’re talking about *the specific condition in which it makes sense to trade JBJ* during their competitive window. I guess I don't get that, Bradley has only had one season over that war total, I use bwar. Yea you'd downgrade D, but your offense would see a major uptick. Benintendi likely increases his war at CF. You'd would be talking about an upgrade, a rather big one. Not a break even type deal, just adding more offensive and less D. That may actually be true re: Benintendi (I think the issue, since those WAR defensive components, at least for fg, involve positional bonus/penalty calculations based on positional value). I’m honestly not sure what happens to his overall value if he goes from “GG caliber” in LF to middling in CF. You’re actually probably right though that the real drop in his defensive quality relative to other players would still be less than his positional adjustment difference. I’m not sure though, that the overall drop in combined OF defense could be appropriately accounted for by just looking at individual player values. Maybe I’m overstating the need for Chavis to hit. If he’s a solid-avg regular with good offense (.270/.330/.470) and average defense (I don’t think Benintendi has the arm for RF, meaning Mookie stays in RF), it might be adequate. I do think there’s substantial value in cost savings, since the $10-12M AAV saved obviously has some WAR value attached to it with upgrading another position via FA, plus the potential for some meaningful return from a JBJ trade. I mean, going back to Jon Gray, JBJ would be ideal for CO. So I’m probably overstating what Chavis would need to do to move the needle significantly positively for the Sox to make a big move like this. FWIW, I can’t resist going back and posting this: www.milb.com/milb/news/toolshed-arizona-fall-league-lessons-from-statcast/c-259766764Chavis has bat speed, power, probably an average hit tool, average speed, and a plus arm. He crushes the ball (keep in mind he’s the only guy on that list last fall with two appearances, and he only had ONE game there)...and he came back looking pretty good this year. IDK what the PED suspension was for...the Kopech oxillofrine thing is stupid, and there’s minimal scientific evidence that it makes any difference. So if it was something like that, I don’t have any concerns going forward with Chavis. I do think it makes a lot of sense to get him LF (and RF, since he has the arm) time. If he continued to hit in MLB the way he has the last two years in the minors, and can play a corner passably well (average, or even fringy but with a plus bat), he could force the issue. He may not have a defensive home yet, but I think his bat is the real deal. The suspension made him somewhat forgettable, but I think he’s still a very legit prospect.
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Post by Addam603 on Jan 28, 2019 22:37:18 GMT -5
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Post by sparkygian on Feb 8, 2019 13:42:39 GMT -5
I can't recall the last time a #1 prospect on many lists of Sox prospects rankings was so surrounded by seeming disinterest. Obviously starting last season a half-season behind almost every other prospect was devastating for Chavis, and certainly snuffed out much of the excitement his previous season created. Still, the muted, scarce interest in him for a #1 prospect over this offseason has been a little strange, and I can't really recall the last time this happened, in my memory at least.
I'm sure the excitement of the possibility of a repeat Series win has a lot to do with the quietness surrounding Chavis, along with the position uncertainty and fit on the current Sox team. Still, there seems to be zero interest in him from other teams. Even teams like San Diego, who has plenty of trade assets, and are rumored to be looking for a long-term 3b solution, apparently hasn't shown any interest in him which just seems odd. He showed he could handle AAA pitching. He's definitely athletic enough to show some potential postional diversity.
For a #1 prospect, he, along with Swihart, just seemed to be buried underneath all the excitement of the Kopech/Moncado/Devers/Benintendi era created. Like Swihart, who at least created a lot of offseason trade rumors at his peak prospect time, I fear that he's going to be lost in the focus of going for a championship now, along with the position logjam and uncertainty. Having a Hamels over the last few years would have been nice, rather than having Swihart just dangling in nowhere land because of a logjam of talent ahead of him on the roster and win now aspirations. I hope the same thing doesn't happen to Chavis; he's not getting any younger.
Between what's already happened to Swihart, and Castillo (for obvious different reasons, but he's capable of playing at MLB level, and if Sox could eat some of his contract it would be nice to see him play for another team, even if it was just getting a little Int'l signing money in return), adding Chavis to those two would kinda suck.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 8, 2019 15:58:31 GMT -5
I can't recall the last time a #1 prospect on many lists of Sox prospects rankings was so surrounded by seeming disinterest. Obviously starting last season a half-season behind almost every other prospect was devastating for Chavis, and certainly snuffed out much of the excitement his previous season created. Still, the muted, scarce interest in him for a #1 prospect over this offseason has been a little strange, and I can't really recall the last time this happened, in my memory at least. I'm sure the excitement of the possibility of a repeat Series win has a lot to do with the quietness surrounding Chavis, along with the position uncertainty and fit on the current Sox team. Still, there seems to be zero interest in him from other teams. Even teams like San Diego, who has plenty of trade assets, and are rumored to be looking for a long-term 3b solution, apparently hasn't shown any interest in him which just seems odd. He showed he could handle AAA pitching. He's definitely athletic enough to show some potential postional diversity. For a #1 prospect, he, along with Swihart, just seemed to be buried underneath all the excitement of the Kopech/Moncado/Devers/Benintendi era created. Like Swihart, who at least created a lot of offseason trade rumors at his peak prospect time, I fear that he's going to be lost in the focus of going for a championship now, along with the position logjam and uncertainty. Having a Hamels over the last few years would have been nice, rather than having Swihart just dangling in nowhere land because of a logjam of talent ahead of him on the roster and win now aspirations. I hope the same thing doesn't happen to Chavis; he's not getting any younger. Between what's already happened to Swihart, and Castillo (for obvious different reasons, but he's capable of playing at MLB level, and if Sox could eat some of his contract it would be nice to see him play for another team, even if it was just getting a little Int'l signing money in return), adding Chavis to those two would kinda suck. Well the main thing with Chavis is that the Sox really have no use whatsoever for him in the majors at this point. I think that lessens the excitement a little
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Post by sparkygian on Feb 8, 2019 18:38:47 GMT -5
I agree, so that's why I hope that he doesn't get lost in the grey area between AAA, and no place on Sox roster. It's probably time for him to be getting time at the MLB level if he's going to continue to get better, assuming his numbers at AAA last year weren't a fluke. I'm not saying that it's going to hurt him to spend more time at AAA, since he just got there last year, and it sounds like he needs more time to work on his game, esp. on defense side. It just worries me that he doesn't have an obvious home in Boston, yet very little rumblings about any other team sensing that and trying to pry him loose. Kind of depressing that the Sox's #1 prospect, arguably, isn't drawing much attention from media as far as rumors about other teams being interested.
Guess I got spoiled seeing Sox have three prospects in top 10 in all of MLB just a couple of years ago, instead of having only one in lower half of top 100 like this year. Would be nice to see him get flipped for younger talent if he's not needed on Sox this year instead of him potentially getting hurt and seeing his stock plummet like Swihart's situation a couple of years earlier. Don't want Sox to give him away for a reliever, ala Bagwell, but a trade for lower division prospect in a position of need would seem to make sense, if that were possible.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 8, 2019 18:49:02 GMT -5
I agree, so that's why I hope that he doesn't get lost in the grey area between AAA, and no place on Sox roster. It's probably time for him to be getting time at the MLB level if he's going to continue to get better, assuming his numbers at AAA last year weren't a fluke. I'm not saying that it's going to hurt him to spend more time at AAA, since he just got there last year, and it sounds like he needs more time to work on his game, esp. on defense side. It just worries me that he doesn't have an obvious home in Boston, yet very little rumblings about any other team sensing that and trying to pry him loose. Kind of depressing that the Sox's #1 prospect, arguably, isn't drawing much attention from media as far as rumors about other teams being interested. Guess I got spoiled seeing Sox have three prospects in top 10 in all of MLB just a couple of years ago, instead of having only one in lower half of top 100 like this year. Would be nice to see him get flipped for younger talent if he's not needed on Sox this year instead of him potentially getting hurt and seeing his stock plummet like Swihart's situation a couple of years earlier. Don't want Sox to give him away for a reliever, ala Bagwell, but a trade for lower division prospect in a position of need would seem to make sense, if that were possible. I don't think it's a problem that he'll probably spend the bulk of the year in AAA. Like you said he hasn't had much experience in AAA ball and he has a lot of defensive work to do, especially at 1b where he's inexperienced and 1b is where the clearest path to the major leagues are. He could become the 1b in 2020 as both Moreland and Pearce are free agents and not likely coming back. So it's not like he's trapped with no chance to establish himself on the Red Sox. Of course if his defense at 1b is terrible and 2b is something he can't be passable at (another avenue if Pedroia has health issues), then he becomes a guy who could be dealt for a useful and necessary reliever to help the pen come July. I know you don't want that to happen, but Chavis isn't exactly Bagwell and the reliever the Sox would target might have more service time and be younger (Andersen was about 37 or 38 at the time of the deal). Chavis is projected to be a second division regular. Bagwell's power might have been a surprise to some, but his hit tool was off the charts, unlike Chavis. That said, I hope the Sox don't have to resort to dealing Chavis in a deal for a reliever. Maybe he'll take to 1b and rake in AAA and be a very viable option for 1b for a few years until Casas is ready.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 10, 2019 21:05:03 GMT -5
I can't recall the last time a #1 prospect on many lists of Sox prospects rankings was so surrounded by seeming disinterest. Obviously starting last season a half-season behind almost every other prospect was devastating for Chavis, and certainly snuffed out much of the excitement his previous season created. Still, the muted, scarce interest in him for a #1 prospect over this offseason has been a little strange, and I can't really recall the last time this happened, in my memory at least. I'm sure the excitement of the possibility of a repeat Series win has a lot to do with the quietness surrounding Chavis, along with the position uncertainty and fit on the current Sox team. Still, there seems to be zero interest in him from other teams. Even teams like San Diego, who has plenty of trade assets, and are rumored to be looking for a long-term 3b solution, apparently hasn't shown any interest in him which just seems odd. He showed he could handle AAA pitching. He's definitely athletic enough to show some potential postional diversity. For a #1 prospect, he, along with Swihart, just seemed to be buried underneath all the excitement of the Kopech/Moncado/Devers/Benintendi era created. Like Swihart, who at least created a lot of offseason trade rumors at his peak prospect time, I fear that he's going to be lost in the focus of going for a championship now, along with the position logjam and uncertainty. Having a Hamels over the last few years would have been nice, rather than having Swihart just dangling in nowhere land because of a logjam of talent ahead of him on the roster and win now aspirations. I hope the same thing doesn't happen to Chavis; he's not getting any younger. Between what's already happened to Swihart, and Castillo (for obvious different reasons, but he's capable of playing at MLB level, and if Sox could eat some of his contract it would be nice to see him play for another team, even if it was just getting a little Int'l signing money in return), adding Chavis to those two would kinda suck. I think there are several differences here between Chavis and past #1 prospects in the system that account for the phenomenon you describe. For one thing, Chavis is far from being the consensus #1 prospect right now. Chavis is #1 on our list and MLB Pipeline's, but BA has Dalbec #1 (Chavis at 2), Fangraphs has Casas #1 (Chavis at 3), and Keith Law has Darwinzon #1 (Chavis at 5). Without having MLB's updated list yet (coming Feb. 18), Darwinzon and Casas have higher aggregate rankings across the 4 lists than Chavis does (and it's not just because of Law's ranking of Chavis - BA has Casas at 5 and we have Darwinzon at 4). There are tiers that will be interesting to look at in a week with MLB's list out, but no clear-cut #1 by any means. And there's not a lot of excitement about him compared to past studs because he's just not as good of a prospect. He's #79 on the MLB list, but that's for top 100 lists. To compare to one guy you mention, when Swihart was the #1 prospect in the system (for us at least) during the '14-'15 offseason, he was a consensus Top 20 prospect in the game across multiple lists. And finally, there's the concept of ranking versus projection. Even taking the current Chavis, if you took him now and plugged him into, say, they 2015 season-opening list that Swihart topped for us (and Moncada topped for others), he'd have been somewhere between 6 and 8 behind Swihart, Moncada, Owens, Margot, and Devers, and ranked in the same tier as Rodriguez and Johnson. As it was, he was 9th on that list after his modest-but-solid GCL debut. And this is the biggest thing - not all #1 prospects are equal just like not all #10 prospects are equal. If he were projected to be a future all-star, I think the excitement would be raised proportionally. But he doesn't have that projection, so he doesn't have that level of buzz.
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 11, 2019 12:19:15 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 11, 2019 12:26:06 GMT -5
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Post by Addam603 on Feb 11, 2019 15:54:16 GMT -5
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Feb 12, 2019 2:03:09 GMT -5
Lol. Speak of angels and hear the flutter of their wings.
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