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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 8, 2019 7:46:58 GMT -5
He's been here for about 2 weeks. He has the three longest Red Sox homers this year. Just 4 poops, he had three at Pawtucket that were longer than his longest at Boston.
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Post by ramireja on May 8, 2019 13:44:37 GMT -5
Some Chavis excitement here courtesy of Bleacher Report:Obviously, Chavis can't account for all of this, but he certainly seemed to spark some excitement, optimism, confidence throughout the lineup. His HRs have been a thing of glory. "Its a beautiful thing."
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on May 10, 2019 2:51:33 GMT -5
Lots of discussion in the game threads.
But here's a good one: since Chavis's debut, there have been 46 balls hit in MLB with a projected distance of 435' or more, by 38 different players. Chavis has 4 of them. Ketel Marte has 3, and Gary Sanchez, Jorge Soler, and Nelson Cruz have 2 (but both shorter than Chavis' shortest). Chavis has the 6th longest, 3 of the 26 longest and 4 of the 36 longest. Sanchez is the only guy who has a longer longest homer and a longer second-longest.
I figured that was the case about the game threads, I just haven't been paying as much attention to those lately as the B's and C's are in the playoffs. Glad to get this conversation going though. Love those stats on distance, is that based on exit velo? Exit velo plus launch angle. Backspin isn't explicitly factored in, but it's a product of swing path combined with both of those, so it may well be only a small extra factor.
Here's my analysis from the game threads, on 5/5, followed by a new analysis of his 0/10 "slump."
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The book on Chavis is that he has a hole in the top of the zone.
On 76 pitches in the middle and lower third of the zone:
56 swung at (.737) 45 made contact (.804) 29 AB with a 1.138 SA.
On just 17 pitches in the top third:
8 swung at (.471). That's 2 swings on 8 with less than 2 strikes, and 6 for 9 with 2 strikes. 1 made contact (.125) 7 AB with a single.
So that's definitely his weakness; he actually has a higher SA on all pitches outside the zone (.273).
But he seems to know it, given that he's actually taken more pitches there with 2 strikes than swung at pitches with less than 2.
He swings at far fewer pitches on the outer third (10 of 27, .370) with a .600 contact and 6 TB in 5 AB. He's taken 6 of 7 pitches in the upper outer ninth of the zone, so he seems to be smartly selective on outside pitches in general. The hole is really just up, and middle or in.
The thing is, if you aim for those two sectors and miss high ... he's swung at just 4 of 13 pitches (one for an out).
If you miss to the outside, as mentioned, he takes the strike 6 of 7 times, and if you miss inside, he's swing at just 2 of 6 and fouled them off.
If you miss low into the middle of the zone, that's 31 pitches, 28 contact, 15 AB with a 1.000 SA.
It's quite possible that his hot start is partially a function of not facing pitchers with good enough command to successfully attack his weakness. However, BP has him facing pitchers just 3% below average (most guys have faced even easier pitching).
And how big a weakness is it, if a) he can hit everything else when he's going good like this, b) you can only exploit it if you get to 2 strikes, and c) you have two of the 9 zone sectors you have to hit, and if you don't elevate enough, you're dead meat?
Was he underated as a prospect because scouts would see him look bad on these pitches, and didn't consider how much of a weakness it really constituted? Keith Law was very low on him, and if he happened to see a game where he fanned twice on a pitch on this spot, he could come away thinking, well, that's an obvious hole that MLB pitchers will just exploit. But, no, actually, they really can't.
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A bit more on Chavis: in the actual weak spot (up in the zone, and middle or in), he's only seen 1 pitch with 0 strikes and taken it, has swung at 2 of 3 with 1 strike, and swung at 5 of 6 with two strikes. That tells you that opposing pitchers are waiting till 2 strikes to attack him there, which also tells you that they don't think they can throw it there consistently. The risk of throwing to that spot and failing to elevate sufficiently is only worth taking if you can get an out.
So the key to his success so far has been his ability to destroy pitches that miss low to his weak spot.
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ALL NEW!
An analysis of his 0/10, 2 BB in his last 3 games.
He's seen 12 pitches in his hot zone and swung at 10, getting called out on a low-inside sector pitch. He's swung and missed twice, both times for K's. He's fouled off 5 pitches, popped up, grounded out, and hit a ball to LF that's a homer 96% of the time that the wind knocked down for an out.
He's seen 1 pitch to his weak spot, with 0 strikes, which he took.
He's seen 1 pitch to his unfavored zone (outside third), which he took.
He's seen 40 pitches outside the zone and swung at 12. He's missed just 3, all with less than 2 strikes. He's grounded out twice and fouled off 7 pitches.
Of the 28 pitches outside the zone that he took, three were on ball 3, but only two of those were called ball 4. The third, on a 3-2 count, appeared to have been called a strike. Another 11 were on 2 strikes, and he was called out on one of those as well.
So this was 1/8, HR, 3 BB (and one incomplete) without wind and bad umpiring. Which is an 864 OPS.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 12, 2019 8:45:51 GMT -5
I figured that was the case about the game threads, I just haven't been paying as much attention to those lately as the B's and C's are in the playoffs. Glad to get this conversation going though. Love those stats on distance, is that based on exit velo? Exit velo plus launch angle. Backspin isn't explicitly factored in, but it's a product of swing path combined with both of those, so it may well be only a small extra factor.
Here's my analysis from the game threads, on 5/5, followed by a new analysis of his 0/10 "slump."
----
The book on Chavis is that he has a hole in the top of the zone.
On 76 pitches in the middle and lower third of the zone:
56 swung at (.737) 45 made contact (.804) 29 AB with a 1.138 SA.
On just 17 pitches in the top third:
8 swung at (.471). That's 2 swings on 8 with less than 2 strikes, and 6 for 9 with 2 strikes. 1 made contact (.125) 7 AB with a single.
So that's definitely his weakness; he actually has a higher SA on all pitches outside the zone (.273).
But he seems to know it, given that he's actually taken more pitches there with 2 strikes than swung at pitches with less than 2.
He swings at far fewer pitches on the outer third (10 of 27, .370) with a .600 contact and 6 TB in 5 AB. He's taken 6 of 7 pitches in the upper outer ninth of the zone, so he seems to be smartly selective on outside pitches in general. The hole is really just up, and middle or in.
The thing is, if you aim for those two sectors and miss high ... he's swung at just 4 of 13 pitches (one for an out).
If you miss to the outside, as mentioned, he takes the strike 6 of 7 times, and if you miss inside, he's swing at just 2 of 6 and fouled them off.
If you miss low into the middle of the zone, that's 31 pitches, 28 contact, 15 AB with a 1.000 SA.
It's quite possible that his hot start is partially a function of not facing pitchers with good enough command to successfully attack his weakness. However, BP has him facing pitchers just 3% below average (most guys have faced even easier pitching).
And how big a weakness is it, if a) he can hit everything else when he's going good like this, b) you can only exploit it if you get to 2 strikes, and c) you have two of the 9 zone sectors you have to hit, and if you don't elevate enough, you're dead meat?
Was he underated as a prospect because scouts would see him look bad on these pitches, and didn't consider how much of a weakness it really constituted? Keith Law was very low on him, and if he happened to see a game where he fanned twice on a pitch on this spot, he could come away thinking, well, that's an obvious hole that MLB pitchers will just exploit. But, no, actually, they really can't.
----
A bit more on Chavis: in the actual weak spot (up in the zone, and middle or in), he's only seen 1 pitch with 0 strikes and taken it, has swung at 2 of 3 with 1 strike, and swung at 5 of 6 with two strikes. That tells you that opposing pitchers are waiting till 2 strikes to attack him there, which also tells you that they don't think they can throw it there consistently. The risk of throwing to that spot and failing to elevate sufficiently is only worth taking if you can get an out.
So the key to his success so far has been his ability to destroy pitches that miss low to his weak spot.
------
ALL NEW!
An analysis of his 0/10, 2 BB in his last 3 games.
He's seen 12 pitches in his hot zone and swung at 10, getting called out on a low-inside sector pitch. He's swung and missed twice, both times for K's. He's fouled off 5 pitches, popped up, grounded out, and hit a ball to LF that's a homer 96% of the time that the wind knocked down for an out.
He's seen 1 pitch to his weak spot, with 0 strikes, which he took.
He's seen 1 pitch to his unfavored zone (outside third), which he took.
He's seen 40 pitches outside the zone and swung at 12. He's missed just 3, all with less than 2 strikes. He's grounded out twice and fouled off 7 pitches.
Of the 28 pitches outside the zone that he took, three were on ball 3, but only two of those were called ball 4. The third, on a 3-2 count, appeared to have been called a strike. Another 11 were on 2 strikes, and he was called out on one of those as well.
So this was 1/8, HR, 3 BB (and one incomplete) without wind and bad umpiring. Which is an 864 OPS.
Meant to say thank you for all your hard work.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 12, 2019 10:56:10 GMT -5
I believe he passed it with at least a week to spare. We should have him for 6++ years. Oh okay, good because I don't see him going down to Pawtucket at any point now that he's up here and producing. Assuming he doesn't go back down, they have the extra year but he would be a super two and get four years of arb. That said, he needs to pull out of this slump, now 0 for 18 with 8 K and 5 BB in 23 PA, to stay up.
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Post by jimed14 on May 12, 2019 11:02:59 GMT -5
Oh okay, good because I don't see him going down to Pawtucket at any point now that he's up here and producing. Assuming he doesn't go back down, they have the extra year but he would be a super two and get four years of arb. That said, he needs to pull out of this slump, now 0 for 18 with 8 K and 5 BB in 23 PA, to stay up. I will say that the walks make his slump a lot more palatable. He did barely miss 2 HR yesterday on foul balls. He doesn't look like he's lost at the plate right now despite the slump.
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Post by telson13 on May 12, 2019 11:17:34 GMT -5
He's been here for about 2 weeks. He has the three longest Red Sox homers this year. Just 4 poops, he had three at Pawtucket that were longer than his longest at Boston. I’m so unbelievably juvenile that your small spelling error brought me incredible joy (and a very funny, very gross mental image).
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Post by grandsalami on May 12, 2019 15:13:39 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 12, 2019 16:45:34 GMT -5
Chavis is humble and he wants to be great.
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Post by grandsalami on May 12, 2019 17:56:28 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on May 12, 2019 18:19:18 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on May 12, 2019 19:27:12 GMT -5
Hopefully this is the start of him breaking out of his slump.
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Post by telson13 on May 12, 2019 20:53:31 GMT -5
I’ve been thinking a bit more about the Dan Uggla comp. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3442&position=2BOffensively, I really think it’s probably pretty accurate. I’m obviously surprised at Chavis’s huge leap in walk rate, but it’s really starting to look sustainable. Certainly, it seems unusual for a career 8% BB hitter to just up and double that, but if you include his AAA time, he’s at 129 PA, so well past stabilization. And the k rate has fluctuated and been fairly high, but not egregiously so. Uggla was typically in the 11-12%/mid-20s %, so pretty much where Chavis is. OTOH, Chavis is probably a bit faster (statcast makes a lie of the “40” speed tool on fg, as 27.7 ft/s puts Chavis in the 55-60 range for speed tool), and he’s certainly a more all-fields hitter than Uggla, who relied on pulling the ball for his power. Both his speed and ability to go middle-oppo (not the mention hard contact) bode well for Chavis in terms of having a BABIP edge. Uggla was roughly league-average (around .300), but Chavis could be closer to a true-talent .310-.320, depending on how his approach evolves. I think there’s a reasonable chance he hits for consistently higher average than Uggla, with similar (or even slightly higher) walk and K rates. Uggla wasn’t bad at 2b early on, but he was pretty rough towards the end (in his early 30s). An important thing to remember is that Dan Uggla didn’t make MLB until he was 26; Chavis is here at 23. So while Uggla essentially arrived in his offensive prime and had only a short time to defensive decline, Chavis has time to improve both. I’ve been pleased with Chavis at second so far, and it might be smart for the team to treat that as a long-term position. The arm might be wasted a bit but it’s an apparent need. Shifts should cover up any range inadequacies (actually seems ok to me), so really it’s about footwork and transfer skills. If he puts the sort of work in there that he does on hitting, we’re golden. COF experience has value, although I’m pretty sold on Duran as the future CF and obviously am dying for a Mookie extension, so it’d probably just be as a fill-in. Again, though, that has very significant value. I think it’s exciting to see what a leap in hitting Chavis has made this year, *and* passable defense at a position of need, knowing he’s got a number of years of development ahead. He’s a terrific development success story at just the right time, and when the system looked thin.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2019 21:19:01 GMT -5
I’ve been thinking a bit more about the Dan Uggla comp. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3442&position=2BOffensively, I really think it’s probably pretty accurate. I’m obviously surprised at Chavis’s huge leap in walk rate, but it’s really starting to look sustainable. Certainly, it seems unusual for a career 8% BB hitter to just up and double that, but if you include his AAA time, he’s at 129 PA, so well past stabilization. And the k rate has fluctuated and been fairly high, but not egregiously so. Uggla was typically in the 11-12%/mid-20s %, so pretty much where Chavis is. OTOH, Chavis is probably a bit faster (statcast makes a lie of the “40” speed tool on fg, as 27.7 ft/s puts Chavis in the 55-60 range for speed tool), and he’s certainly a more all-fields hitter than Uggla, who relied on pulling the ball for his power. Both his speed and ability to go middle-oppo (not the mention hard contact) bode well for Chavis in terms of having a BABIP edge. Uggla was roughly league-average (around .300), but Chavis could be closer to a true-talent .310-.320, depending on how his approach evolves. I think there’s a reasonable chance he hits for consistently higher average than Uggla, with similar (or even slightly higher) walk and K rates. Uggla wasn’t bad at 2b early on, but he was pretty rough towards the end (in his early 30s). An important thing to remember is that Dan Uggla didn’t make MLB until he was 26; Chavis is here at 23. So while Uggla essentially arrived in his offensive prime and had only a short time to defensive decline, Chavis has time to improve both. I’ve been pleased with Chavis at second so far, and it might be smart for the team to treat that as a long-term position. The arm might be wasted a bit but it’s an apparent need. Shifts should cover up any range inadequacies (actually seems ok to me), so really it’s about footwork and transfer skills. If he puts the sort of work in there that he does on hitting, we’re golden. COF experience has value, although I’m pretty sold on Duran as the future CF and obviously am dying for a Mookie extension, so it’d probably just be as a fill-in. Again, though, that has very significant value. I think it’s exciting to see what a leap in hitting Chavis has made this year, *and* passable defense at a position of need, knowing he’s got a number of years of development ahead. He’s a terrific development success story at just the right time, and when the system looked thin. If Chavis can continue to be serviceable at least at 2b, that would be a huge boost to the Red Sox, not just for 2019 but going forward. I'd be surprised (like just about everybody else) if Pedroia was a real option at 2b going forward. Perhaps Chatham can be a regular 2b, but he might just be a utility type, but Chavis not being restricted to a 1b gives the Sox options in the future. Say Dalbec can continue to cut the Ks down to a reasonable rate given his power, that opens up an infield corner for both Devers and Dalbec. I think that's potentially a big deal. But in the present, his ability to play 2b cannot be understated. I remember wondering if he could handle it and I don't know how the defensive metrics read. My impression is that he's serviceable if the bat is producing you can a big net positive at the position, which is totally a position of need. The starting pitching, obviously, has been night and day difference since the start of the season as has the defense, but if you're inclined to (I know it doesn't really make sense to), the real spark that lit the turnaround for this season lies at the feet of Michael Chavis. He was a breath of fresh air at a time when they badly, badly needed it. I really don't that that can be understated either.
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Post by marrcus on May 12, 2019 21:34:28 GMT -5
If FO wants something important at the MLTD it will be nice Chavis has a significant OPS against ML pitching to point to. Adequate fielder with a good attitude as well.
I'm not suggesting he be moved just that he's shown some things this spring that will look better than aaa stats.
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Post by soxfansince67 on May 12, 2019 21:45:03 GMT -5
I'm sold. Pencil him in at 2nd for a long time. We can keep hoping on Pedey, but he won't be the same. If Dustin can play now and then, great - his presence on the bench has to be a positive (unless the nagging injury makes him a drag to have around). Keeping Chavis means...Nunez? Or Pearce? become expendable. With CVaz catching fire, even Sandy hitting, offense is not a problem - and Chavis' defense has been a surprising plus.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 12, 2019 22:39:46 GMT -5
I'm sold. Pencil him in at 2nd for a long time. We can keep hoping on Pedey, but he won't be the same. If Dustin can play now and then, great - his presence on the bench has to be a positive (unless the nagging injury makes him a drag to have around). Keeping Chavis means...Nunez? Or Pearce? become expendable. With CVaz catching fire, even Sandy hitting, offense is not a problem - and Chavis' defense has been a surprising plus. At this point, with Pedroia, I really don't anticipate him being able to play consistently or even semi-consistently without constant problems to his knee. I kind of expect him, at some point sooner than later, to have more knee issues pop up and miss time. Honestly at this point, my only real hope for him, is that he's back in September when rosters expand, and he has a hot two or three games and gets his lifetime batting average back up to .300. It was there until this season. I think he was like 3-20 and it dropped to .299. I'd like to see him wind up at .300 and retire, and stay in the organization as a coach or something, be a Red Sox lifer.
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Post by grandsalami on May 12, 2019 22:46:35 GMT -5
I don’t see pedroia as the type of person who just leaves baseball when he retires.
He will be a coach or talking head.
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Post by telson13 on May 13, 2019 0:43:13 GMT -5
I’ve been thinking a bit more about the Dan Uggla comp. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3442&position=2BOffensively, I really think it’s probably pretty accurate. I’m obviously surprised at Chavis’s huge leap in walk rate, but it’s really starting to look sustainable. Certainly, it seems unusual for a career 8% BB hitter to just up and double that, but if you include his AAA time, he’s at 129 PA, so well past stabilization. And the k rate has fluctuated and been fairly high, but not egregiously so. Uggla was typically in the 11-12%/mid-20s %, so pretty much where Chavis is. OTOH, Chavis is probably a bit faster (statcast makes a lie of the “40” speed tool on fg, as 27.7 ft/s puts Chavis in the 55-60 range for speed tool), and he’s certainly a more all-fields hitter than Uggla, who relied on pulling the ball for his power. Both his speed and ability to go middle-oppo (not the mention hard contact) bode well for Chavis in terms of having a BABIP edge. Uggla was roughly league-average (around .300), but Chavis could be closer to a true-talent .310-.320, depending on how his approach evolves. I think there’s a reasonable chance he hits for consistently higher average than Uggla, with similar (or even slightly higher) walk and K rates. Uggla wasn’t bad at 2b early on, but he was pretty rough towards the end (in his early 30s). An important thing to remember is that Dan Uggla didn’t make MLB until he was 26; Chavis is here at 23. So while Uggla essentially arrived in his offensive prime and had only a short time to defensive decline, Chavis has time to improve both. I’ve been pleased with Chavis at second so far, and it might be smart for the team to treat that as a long-term position. The arm might be wasted a bit but it’s an apparent need. Shifts should cover up any range inadequacies (actually seems ok to me), so really it’s about footwork and transfer skills. If he puts the sort of work in there that he does on hitting, we’re golden. COF experience has value, although I’m pretty sold on Duran as the future CF and obviously am dying for a Mookie extension, so it’d probably just be as a fill-in. Again, though, that has very significant value. I think it’s exciting to see what a leap in hitting Chavis has made this year, *and* passable defense at a position of need, knowing he’s got a number of years of development ahead. He’s a terrific development success story at just the right time, and when the system looked thin. If Chavis can continue to be serviceable at least at 2b, that would be a huge boost to the Red Sox, not just for 2019 but going forward. I'd be surprised (like just about everybody else) if Pedroia was a real option at 2b going forward. Perhaps Chatham can be a regular 2b, but he might just be a utility type, but Chavis not being restricted to a 1b gives the Sox options in the future. Say Dalbec can continue to cut the Ks down to a reasonable rate given his power, that opens up an infield corner for both Devers and Dalbec. I think that's potentially a big deal. But in the present, his ability to play 2b cannot be understated. I remember wondering if he could handle it and I don't know how the defensive metrics read. My impression is that he's serviceable if the bat is producing you can a big net positive at the position, which is totally a position of need. The starting pitching, obviously, has been night and day difference since the start of the season as has the defense, but if you're inclined to (I know it doesn't really make sense to), the real spark that lit the turnaround for this season lies at the feet of Michael Chavis. He was a breath of fresh air at a time when they badly, badly needed it. I really don't that that can be understated either. I agree with nearly everything you’ve said here, particularly that the team’s reversal of fortune (related to quality of play, mostly) coincided with Chavis arriving. I think it goes far beyond stats; maybe they just needed to be reminded to be hungry. I like Chatham, have since he was drafted, mostly because I think he becomes a solid-average MLB defensive SS. That’s not a common thing, at least as far as having adequate offense. I’m encouraged by Chatham’s continued health, and the BB rate improvement despite moving to AA. I think he ends up with a 50-55 hit tool, and if he’s a 50-55 defensive SS that’s not starter material on this team with 30-35 game power, but it does make him a very useful, low-cost utility option. In another thread UMass and I were talking about the benefits of a still-productive farm sans star power, and I think Chatham may end up being a good example of that. A 40-45 role player saves spending on a guy like Nunez, or trading Buttrey for Kinsler, and there’s serious value in that. I’m disappointed that he continues to show no fence power, but at least he’s hitting doubles. It may arise later, say 40-45 game. He’s a pretty big guy. With the MLB club’s star depth, they don’t really “need” to produce stars right away, they have a few years. So safe, low-cost depth is key. I definitely have huge concerns about Dalbec, but obviously the power, arm, and defense seem real. With Devers entrenched, there’s no rush for Dalbec and it’s not a serious problem if he doesn’t pan out. I’m starting to lean towards Chavis actually being a minor star (maybe a 3-4 WAR player who has a couple years over 5?), which is a huge thing for a team on the brink of a salary crunch, and with a “thin” system. Dalbec, I believe, has that sort of upside (maybe 90th %ile outcome?) or even more...as a complete package with 30-40 HR potential and plus defense, he might be a Matt Chapman/Craig Nettles lite. So while the likelihood is low, if he *did* pan out, it would really be something. Again, tho, it’s icing on the cake, especially if Chavis keeps doing this. And while I think Dalbec’s floor is AAAA slugger and occasional fill-in callup (and frankly, 50th %ile outcome 2nd-division starter 1-2 WAR player...his outcome curve is wide but skews low, IMO) that he plays defense and can hit a few bombs while taking a walk...well, that’s useful depth too. Whatever the case, he’s gonna have to *force* Rafi off 3b. Given the recent outstanding success of the Sox PD team re: positional players, I think it’s fair to dream on Dalbec but not plan on him. But if he does force Rafi off 3b, I think he’ll do it in a huge way, with stellar D and silly-looking TTO stats despite BAs in the .230-.260 range. I can’t say enough about what a boon Chavis has been. He’s basically looking like the 90th-95th %ile outcome from his breakout at Salem. That one of the weakest systems (by CW) in the game produced such a player at a key time (both season and long-term team-building-wise) takes a lot of pressure off a “need” to do so again in the next couple of years. After the Sale and Bogey extensions, there’s come to be lots of roster certainty, despite the obvious elephant in Mookie. But the only real “requirement” for the farm this year and next is simply progress. There’s sufficient depth at the MLB level and in AA/AAA that feeder function isn’t really crucial right now. Replacing Mookie is essentially impossible, so I don’t really concern myself with it. But it makes it much easier to keep him if the Sox can produce their own replacements for guys like Pearce, Nunez, Porcello, etc. And Chavis is a HUGE step in providing that low-cost production. I love watching JBJ play, but I’m fully prepared to see him leave if the $8-10M saved means Mookie sticks around. And when the team has a guy like Duran hanging around...well, all he needs to do is be average, and Mookie gets paid. It’s looking very much like he’ll be more than capable of that. And I’m starting to think that Chavis as a 45-50 FV now looking like a 55-60...well, Duran might surprise, too. With the MLB club as deep as it is, role player/45 is enough. This team can handle losing JBJ and replacing him with Duran, even if they lose a win or two. But Duran’s toolset and current skills suggests a *floor* of 4th OF. That alone, on a team as deep as the Sox, is enough to start in CF. Going from a 2.5 to, say, 1 WAR player is not a critical loss. And beyond that is just bonus territory. Thing is, most of Duran’s somewhat narrow outcome curve is in that bonus territory. 50th %ile is probably league-average CF. That means basically no lost production but a $8-10M cost savings. It’s very encouraging to think of the domino effect this might all have on the long-term viability and competitiveness of the core. And it’s almost scary when you realize that another Chavis surprise out of Duran, Darwinzon, Mata, Houck, Feltman...even Ockimey or Lakins...guys at the upper levels, on the verge...well, ”ok” (40-45 FV) keeps the team roughly as good, but surprises...they could make the team *much* better. And this is a damned good team already.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,784
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Post by mobaz on May 13, 2019 7:36:13 GMT -5
Kinda been kind of stated but if Chavis keeps it up I think one of chatham/dalbec becomes trade bait this summer if we have a hole (which we might not).
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Post by James Dunne on May 13, 2019 7:39:50 GMT -5
Yeah, that next name on the list is the worry, right? Middlebrooks is now the prototypical guy who came out on fire and then couldn't make the adjustment. And the little wrinkle with both Chavis and Middlebrooks replacing a once-star player whose injuries had made them unreliable gives it some uncomfortable symmetry.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 13, 2019 8:37:04 GMT -5
If Chavis can continue to be serviceable at least at 2b, that would be a huge boost to the Red Sox, not just for 2019 but going forward. I'd be surprised (like just about everybody else) if Pedroia was a real option at 2b going forward. Perhaps Chatham can be a regular 2b, but he might just be a utility type, but Chavis not being restricted to a 1b gives the Sox options in the future. Say Dalbec can continue to cut the Ks down to a reasonable rate given his power, that opens up an infield corner for both Devers and Dalbec. I think that's potentially a big deal. But in the present, his ability to play 2b cannot be understated. I remember wondering if he could handle it and I don't know how the defensive metrics read. My impression is that he's serviceable if the bat is producing you can a big net positive at the position, which is totally a position of need. The starting pitching, obviously, has been night and day difference since the start of the season as has the defense, but if you're inclined to (I know it doesn't really make sense to), the real spark that lit the turnaround for this season lies at the feet of Michael Chavis. He was a breath of fresh air at a time when they badly, badly needed it. I really don't that that can be understated either. I agree with nearly everything you’ve said here, particularly that the team’s reversal of fortune (related to quality of play, mostly) coincided with Chavis arriving. I think it goes far beyond stats; maybe they just needed to be reminded to be hungry. I like Chatham, have since he was drafted, mostly because I think he becomes a solid-average MLB defensive SS. That’s not a common thing, at least as far as having adequate offense. I’m encouraged by Chatham’s continued health, and the BB rate improvement despite moving to AA. I think he ends up with a 50-55 hit tool, and if he’s a 50-55 defensive SS that’s not starter material on this team with 30-35 game power, but it does make him a very useful, low-cost utility option. In another thread UMass and I were talking about the benefits of a still-productive farm sans star power, and I think Chatham may end up being a good example of that. A 40-45 role player saves spending on a guy like Nunez, or trading Buttrey for Kinsler, and there’s serious value in that. I’m disappointed that he continues to show no fence power, but at least he’s hitting doubles. It may arise later, say 40-45 game. He’s a pretty big guy. With the MLB club’s star depth, they don’t really “need” to produce stars right away, they have a few years. So safe, low-cost depth is key. I definitely have huge concerns about Dalbec, but obviously the power, arm, and defense seem real. With Devers entrenched, there’s no rush for Dalbec and it’s not a serious problem if he doesn’t pan out. I’m starting to lean towards Chavis actually being a minor star (maybe a 3-4 WAR player who has a couple years over 5?), which is a huge thing for a team on the brink of a salary crunch, and with a “thin” system. Dalbec, I believe, has that sort of upside (maybe 90th %ile outcome?) or even more...as a complete package with 30-40 HR potential and plus defense, he might be a Matt Chapman/Craig Nettles lite. So while the likelihood is low, if he *did* pan out, it would really be something. Again, tho, it’s icing on the cake, especially if Chavis keeps doing this. And while I think Dalbec’s floor is AAAA slugger and occasional fill-in callup (and frankly, 50th %ile outcome 2nd-division starter 1-2 WAR player...his outcome curve is wide but skews low, IMO) that he plays defense and can hit a few bombs while taking a walk...well, that’s useful depth too. Whatever the case, he’s gonna have to *force* Rafi off 3b. Given the recent outstanding success of the Sox PD team re: positional players, I think it’s fair to dream on Dalbec but not plan on him. But if he does force Rafi off 3b, I think he’ll do it in a huge way, with stellar D and silly-looking TTO stats despite BAs in the .230-.260 range. I can’t say enough about what a boon Chavis has been. He’s basically looking like the 90th-95th %ile outcome from his breakout at Salem. That one of the weakest systems (by CW) in the game produced such a player at a key time (both season and long-term team-building-wise) takes a lot of pressure off a “need” to do so again in the next couple of years. After the Sale and Bogey extensions, there’s come to be lots of roster certainty, despite the obvious elephant in Mookie. But the only real “requirement” for the farm this year and next is simply progress. There’s sufficient depth at the MLB level and in AA/AAA that feeder function isn’t really crucial right now. Replacing Mookie is essentially impossible, so I don’t really concern myself with it. But it makes it much easier to keep him if the Sox can produce their own replacements for guys like Pearce, Nunez, Porcello, etc. And Chavis is a HUGE step in providing that low-cost production. I love watching JBJ play, but I’m fully prepared to see him leave if the $8-10M saved means Mookie sticks around. And when the team has a guy like Duran hanging around...well, all he needs to do is be average, and Mookie gets paid. It’s looking very much like he’ll be more than capable of that. And I’m starting to think that Chavis as a 45-50 FV now looking like a 55-60...well, Duran might surprise, too. With the MLB club as deep as it is, role player/45 is enough. This team can handle losing JBJ and replacing him with Duran, even if they lose a win or two. But Duran’s toolset and current skills suggests a *floor* of 4th OF. That alone, on a team as deep as the Sox, is enough to start in CF. Going from a 2.5 to, say, 1 WAR player is not a critical loss. And beyond that is just bonus territory. Thing is, most of Duran’s somewhat narrow outcome curve is in that bonus territory. 50th %ile is probably league-average CF. That means basically no lost production but a $8-10M cost savings. It’s very encouraging to think of the domino effect this might all have on the long-term viability and competitiveness of the core. And it’s almost scary when you realize that another Chavis surprise out of Duran, Darwinzon, Mata, Houck, Feltman...even Ockimey or Lakins...guys at the upper levels, on the verge...well, ”ok” (40-45 FV) keeps the team roughly as good, but surprises...they could make the team *much* better. And this is a damned good team already. The hope is that Dalbec is the one because that ceiling could be huge, but yeah, there's a chance he's never more than a guy hitting .185 whose inability to make contact is a killer and limits the number of ABs you get him. As somebody else mentioned (James I believe) he could wind up trade bait - and I do suspect that's the case, although I hope not. As I see it, IF and the big IF is health - if all 5 starters are healthy and the Sox don't feel inclined to have to jump into the Bumgarner sweepstakes, that means they spend their trade currency for relief help. I would hope a Bobby Dalbec doesn't get traded for a Shane Greene type (I have a feeling that's who the Sox will target in July given Dombrowski's familiarity with him and that he's having a good season thus far). Chatham, as you pointed out, is excellent insurance. Perhaps he can play 2b regularly and be a solid if not spectacular player - and there's the chance that he's around to play SS if Bogaerts declines defensively sooner than anticipated, which I don't think is the case, and like you said, perhaps he's a useful bat off the bench taking on that Nunez role, but with actual useful defense, and yeah - that prevents the next Buttrey/Kinsler deal. If Dalbec doesn't develop or gets dealt, then yes, it's possible Chavis winds up at 1b instead of 2b and Chatham winds up at 2b as opposed to Devers and Dalbec manning the corners (Devers at 1b?) with Chavis handling 2b. I would hope the Sox keep both possibilities open and that they don't have to make a trade we rue to strengthen the pen on July 31st. Like you said, a guy like Chatham can have a lot of value, even as a bench player.
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Post by dmaineah on May 13, 2019 8:51:42 GMT -5
With Nunez back & Holt on the way Chavis should go to the Outfield. An Outfielder is what the team needs most. There are plenty of Middle Infielders in the system for 2B, Nunez, Holt, Lin, Hernandez, Chatham....The team (when healthy & moving forward) needs another Outfielder who can hit, not another 2B
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Post by soxcentral on May 13, 2019 9:31:56 GMT -5
With Nunez back & Holt on the way Chavis should go to the Outfield. An Outfielder is what the team needs most. There are plenty of Middle Infielders in the system for 2B, Nunez, Holt, Lin, Hernandez, Chatham....The team (when healthy & moving forward) needs another Outfielder who can hit, not another 2B I can't believe you're actually suggesting we bench Beni or Betts!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 13, 2019 9:41:58 GMT -5
With Nunez back & Holt on the way Chavis should go to the Outfield. An Outfielder is what the team needs most. There are plenty of Middle Infielders in the system for 2B, Nunez, Holt, Lin, Hernandez, Chatham....The team (when healthy & moving forward) needs another Outfielder who can hit, not another 2B Let's see. Holt has had vision problems and has shoulder issues right now. Nunez can't really hit or field. Pedroia can't be counted on to be healthy. So why does Chavis have to move off 2b again? Oh yeah, your secret distaste for JBJ. Well, it's not like we've ever seen JBJ not hit before and then put together a hot streak, all while playing excellent defense. Nah.
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