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Post by Coreno on Jun 7, 2017 13:05:20 GMT -5
My fear with Chavis moving to 2B is that he's Dan Uggla
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nomar
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Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on Jun 7, 2017 14:47:30 GMT -5
My fear with Chavis moving to 2B is that he's Dan Uggla I'll take Dan Uggla under his rookie deal/team control. He was pretty darn good back then.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 7, 2017 15:11:38 GMT -5
My fear with Chavis moving to 2B is that he's Dan Uggla I'll take Dan Uggla under his rookie deal/team control. He was pretty darn good back then. 20.3 fWAR in his first 6 seasons, hell yes. 190 home runs too which is pretty crazy.
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Post by Coreno on Jun 7, 2017 16:14:32 GMT -5
I mean offensively he was good in his 20s, yeah. But obviously the question is defensively, which Uggla was never good at, and at times a trainwreck.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jun 13, 2017 20:48:05 GMT -5
Always seems like there’s that guy in Salem who rakes his way to Portland and gets promoted at the ASB. Forgive me if I miss one but I don’t get paid for this.
JBJ (2012) 67G .359/.480/.526 - 3HR Xander (2012) 104G 0.302/0.378/0.505 - 15HR (at 19 y/o) Garin Cecchini (2013) 63G 0.350/0.469/0.547 – 5HR Mookie (2013) 51G 0.341/0.414/0.551 - 7HR Same Travis (2015) 66 GP .313/.378/.467 – 3HR Andrew Benintendi (2016) 34G 0.341/0.413/0.563 – 1HR Moncada (2016) 61G .307/.427/.496 – 4HR Chavis (2017) 54G 0.345/0.414/0.694 – 17HR
Chavis is only one of these to play in Salem previous year (7 games).
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pd
Rookie
Posts: 236
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Post by pd on Jun 14, 2017 3:53:08 GMT -5
Always seems like there’s that guy in Salem who rakes his way to Portland and gets promoted at the ASB. Forgive me if I miss one but I don’t get paid for this. JBJ (2012) 67G .359/.480/.526 - 3HR Xander (2012) 104G 0.302/0.378/0.505 - 15HR (at 19 y/o) Garin Cecchini (2013) 63G 0.350/0.469/0.547 – 5HR Mookie (2013) 51G 0.341/0.414/0.551 - 7HR Same Travis (2015) 66 GP .313/.378/.467 – 3HR Andrew Benintendi (2016) 34G 0.341/0.413/0.563 – 1HR Moncada (2016) 61G .307/.427/.496 – 4HR Chavis (2017) 54G 0.345/0.414/0.694 – 17HR Chavis is only one of these to play in Salem previous year (7 games). Pretty good company.
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Post by manfred on Jun 21, 2017 12:23:42 GMT -5
I am wondering if there is any thought to bumping up Chavis's ceiling? He is a 5 now in the rankings... might he go up to 6? I guess this is a way of asking how much of the success he's having people who have seen him think will carry over at higher levels. I feel like on the one hand, a high draft pick who's putting up his numbers and is only 21 should be really exciting. On the other hand, it feels like folks are pretty cautious projecting him (say, compated to Devers who has aleays been described as a possible star regardless of numbers).
I'm just curious because I don't see these guys... I trust the soxprospects reports.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 21, 2017 13:15:07 GMT -5
No inclination to do so here.
We recently updated his projection from a 4 to a 4.5. I feel that's the proper adjustment to his season rather than raising his ceiling. To me, there's a much higher threshold that requires changing a guy's ceiling or floor versus changing his projection. We knew Chavis had pop and tons of it. If he goes up to Portland and continues mashing, then maybe at the end of the season we'll reevaluate. Keep in mind, for example, that he's essentially a full year older than Devers.
Don't forget, we still don't really even know where Chavis is going to play in the majors yet. If he has to move to, say, left field, he's going to have to hit a ton to be more than a Role 5. I think that's still an appropriate approximation of his ceiling.
And as I've said, yes, he was a first-rounder. He was also a very late first-rounder who hadn't done a whole lot in 2.5 years.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 21, 2017 18:10:29 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 21, 2017 19:23:27 GMT -5
Certainly can't dispute that he needs to seriously work on his defense, which I'm sure he's trying to do. If I remember correctly, wasn't in Carlos Febles who's been doing a lot of work with Devers in Portland that's been paying off? Perhaps Febles can have a very positive impact on Chavis' defense at Portland? We know his bat is ready, but maybe Febles can help his with his defense? Chris, you're certainly much more in tune than I am, so I'll ask, do you think Chavis could transition to being an adequate LF if need be? By 2021 outfield could be a need on the Red Sox and Devers could have a stranglehold on 3b by then.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,261
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Post by radiohix on Jun 21, 2017 20:19:59 GMT -5
CHAVIS MONTHLY SPLITS:
K Rate: 16.7% in April 22% in May 29% in June
BB Rate: 14.8% in April 7.1% in May 2.9% in June
Those are very very bad trends, it looks like the Carolina League pitchers are figuring him out. For me, he's a Will Middlebrooks.2 and the Sox should be selling high on him. If he's the asking price for someone like Lowrie, he should be gone.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 22, 2017 9:18:33 GMT -5
promotion confirmed. Writing it up now.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 22, 2017 11:05:54 GMT -5
Just some food for thought, if Chavis has to move to LF, I don't think it necessarily puts more pressure on the bat:
2016 LF OPS mean: .739 (median: .739) 2016 3B OPS mean: .777 (median: .782)
2017 LF OPS mean: .762 (median: .735) 2017 3B OPS mean: .759 (median: .767)
So although it looks like LF bats have rebounded a bit this year due to the higher mean, that mean is skewed by Conforto/Cespedes currently. The median LF (15th best LF) is still a bit weaker than the median 3B. LF is not currently a position of offensive strength in the majors.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 22, 2017 11:19:05 GMT -5
Just some food for thought, if Chavis has to move to LF, I don't think it necessarily puts more pressure on the bat: 2016 LF OPS mean: .739 (median: .739) 2016 3B OPS mean: .777 (median: .782) 2017 LF OPS mean: .762 (median: .735) 2017 3B OPS mean: .759 (median: .767) So although it looks like LF bats have rebounded a bit this year due to the higher mean, that mean is skewed by Conforto/Cespedes currently. The median LF (15th best LF) is still a bit weaker than the median 3B. LF is not currently a position of offensive strength in the majors. Yeah. People think of LF as a power position, but it hasn't been for a while now. Perhaps since teams value CF/RFers more, they put more resources into finding those guys, and cobble together their LF situations? That said, if being on the same roster is going to hamper either's defensive growth, I'd imagine Devers is off to AAA. Chavis seems to need all the practice he can get, and time is of the essence with Devers.
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Post by thebogeyman on Jun 22, 2017 11:21:02 GMT -5
Tidbit from Law's new piece (insider only): www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=7298• Boston Red Sox third-base prospect Michael Chavis (who I ranked No. 14 in their system before the season) played through a hand injury last year that killed his numbers, but he's had a huge breakout year for High-A Salem so far and looks like he'll be able to justify the first-round pick Boston expended on him in 2014. Chavis' swing path hasn't changed much since high school but he is more balanced throughout and is quite a bit stronger, which you can see in his body and also in his bat control through contact. He also talks a little bit about Ockimey (spoiler alert: he is not impressed).
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Post by greekgodofpancakes on Jun 22, 2017 12:40:48 GMT -5
Am I alone in thinking that Chavis is DD's primary trade piece for a stopgap 3B or late inning reliever? I hope I'm wrong. I've really enjoyed watching him break-out.
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Post by mandelbro on Jun 22, 2017 13:10:55 GMT -5
Am I alone in thinking that Chavis is DD's primary trade piece for a stopgap 3B or late inning reliever? I hope I'm wrong. I've really enjoyed watching him break-out. You are not alone. And I hope you're wrong too. I definitely see risk in Chavis and I don't think he's a "keeper" by any means. But he's sure as hell not worth some marginal rental.
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Post by ryan24 on Jun 22, 2017 13:20:19 GMT -5
Am I alone in thinking that Chavis is DD's primary trade piece for a stopgap 3B or late inning reliever? I hope I'm wrong. I've really enjoyed watching him break-out. You are not alone. And I hope you're wrong too. I definitely see risk in Chavis and I don't think he's a "keeper" by any means. But he's sure as hell not worth some marginal rental. If you got the moose for him and a couple of the stockpiles relief guys at AAA would you do it. Maybe you throw in Josh O as well.
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Post by brendan98 on Jun 22, 2017 14:34:07 GMT -5
Unfortunately, we all know that whatever trade(s) Dombrowski makes, it going to be an overpay by the Red Sox. I just hope we get through the trade deadline with Devers still in the organization.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 22, 2017 16:13:02 GMT -5
Just some food for thought, if Chavis has to move to LF, I don't think it necessarily puts more pressure on the bat: 2016 LF OPS mean: .739 (median: .739) 2016 3B OPS mean: .777 (median: .782) 2017 LF OPS mean: .762 (median: .735) 2017 3B OPS mean: .759 (median: .767) So although it looks like LF bats have rebounded a bit this year due to the higher mean, that mean is skewed by Conforto/Cespedes currently. The median LF (15th best LF) is still a bit weaker than the median 3B. LF is not currently a position of offensive strength in the majors. Yeah. People think of LF as a power position, but it hasn't been for a while now. Perhaps since teams value CF/RFers more, they put more resources into finding those guys, and cobble together their LF situations? That said, if being on the same roster is going to hamper either's defensive growth, I'd imagine Devers is off to AAA. Chavis seems to need all the practice he can get, and time is of the essence with Devers. There's just not enough bat-first guys to fill all three OF positions anymore. So LF is just a scramble to fill for many teams. It has also been the position with the fewest number of games started by identifiable regulars -- even less than C.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 22, 2017 16:35:07 GMT -5
Tidbit from Law's new piece (insider only): www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=7298• Boston Red Sox third-base prospect Michael Chavis (who I ranked No. 14 in their system before the season) played through a hand injury last year that killed his numbers, but he's had a huge breakout year for High-A Salem so far and looks like he'll be able to justify the first-round pick Boston expended on him in 2014. Chavis' swing path hasn't changed much since high school but he is more balanced throughout and is quite a bit stronger, which you can see in his body and also in his bat control through contact. He also talks a little bit about Ockimey (spoiler alert: he is not impressed). "I think he might be feasting on off-speed stuff, as he was late on fastballs all game and was lunging at pitches off the plate." Aside from the rough D (which we know about), that was his entire reason for the negative report. I just laugh at scouts who think that a one-game negative sample size has to have meaning. You can always find random games where great hitters looked terrible. If a scout can't figure out from his one-game look why a guy has the numbers he does, then he has to grade "incomplete." Making a ludicrous guess about where the numbers come from (sure, KLaw figured out how he ought to be pitched to, but SAL opponents, by and large, have not) is not a good strategy. It would be a different thing, BTW, if he hammered an 89 FB and was consistently overmatched by 95. That's the hitting equivalent of a pitcher who's feasting on weak hitters, and it's a credible one-game negative assessment. But can a hitter really put up a 138 wRC+ (9th in all of high-A, ages 21 and below) while being unable to handle the average FB at his level? Seriously? Being late on the FB all game suggests messed-up mechanics, a bad night's sleep, or a pre-game argument with his gf ... whatever. Edit: He had a 158 wRC+ on June 2 and has a 62 since. He's just messed up now. If you saw Dustin Pedroia when he was messed up, you might think he "lacked the bat speed to hit major league pitching."
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Post by thebogeyman on Jun 22, 2017 17:09:46 GMT -5
Tidbit from Law's new piece (insider only): www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=7298• Boston Red Sox third-base prospect Michael Chavis (who I ranked No. 14 in their system before the season) played through a hand injury last year that killed his numbers, but he's had a huge breakout year for High-A Salem so far and looks like he'll be able to justify the first-round pick Boston expended on him in 2014. Chavis' swing path hasn't changed much since high school but he is more balanced throughout and is quite a bit stronger, which you can see in his body and also in his bat control through contact. He also talks a little bit about Ockimey (spoiler alert: he is not impressed). "I think he might be feasting on off-speed stuff, as he was late on fastballs all game and was lunging at pitches off the plate." Aside from the rough D (which we know about), that was his entire reason for the negative report. I just laugh at scouts who think that a one-game negative sample size has to have meaning. You can always find random games where great hitters looked terrible. If a scout can't figure out from his one-game look why a guy has the numbers he does, then he has to grade "incomplete." Making a ludicrous guess about where the numbers come from (sure, KLaw figured out how he ought to be pitched to, but SAL opponents, by and large, have not) is not a good strategy. It would be a different thing, BTW, if he hammered an 89 FB and was consistently overmatched by 95. That's the hitting equivalent of a pitcher who's feasting on weak hitters, and it's a credible one-game negative assessment. But can a hitter really put up a 138 wRC+ (9th in all of high-A, ages 21 and below) while being unable to handle the average FB at his level? Seriously? Being late on the FB all game suggests messed-up mechanics, a bad night's sleep, or a pre-game argument with his gf ... whatever. Edit: He had a 158 wRC+ on June 2 and has a 62 since. He's just messed up now. If you saw Dustin Pedroia when he was messed up, you might think he "lacked the bat speed to hit major league pitching." Or maybe he has heard people in the industry say something similar and his viewing confirmed that. It was a one or two sentence blurb, so he might not have shared all the insight that went into his statement. We don't know, but why put your reputation on the line if you don't think it is a significant issue? Law is the king of calling things SSS, so I am pretty sure he is well aware that one game does not a scouting report make. Based on your logic, this site should never post any scouting reports because seeing a few games is too small of a sample size to judge properly.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jun 23, 2017 23:05:28 GMT -5
If Chavis keeps this up, and Devers does as well, someone has to change position. The OF is full. I think it has to be 1B. Both appear to be much better hitters than Travis. I think he is the trade chip, not either Chavis or Devers.
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Post by tookme55 on Jun 24, 2017 10:02:52 GMT -5
I"m not conceding better hitter tag over Sam Travis. Different type of hitters for one thing.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 24, 2017 10:21:29 GMT -5
If Chavis keeps this up, and Devers does as well, someone has to change position. The OF is full. I think it has to be 1B. Both appear to be much better hitters than Travis. I think he is the trade chip, not either Chavis or Devers. Could be. If Milwaukee falls out of it does anyone think the Sox could get this Shaw guy? He's raking and can play first and third.
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