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Linsanity 2.0? (Tzu-Wei Lin)
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Post by ramireja on Aug 23, 2017 13:06:02 GMT -5
T su-Wei Lin identified in this Fangraphs piece as being a guy with both a high contact rate and low groundball rate based on his AA performance. However, it is noted that in his time at AAA, he has maintained an elite contact rate but his GB rate has drifted toward an average range. In the majors, his contact rate and GB rates both drifted toward average ranges I believe. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see if the profile he exhibited in AA can be replicated to some extent at the higher levels.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2017 13:08:57 GMT -5
It will be interesting if Lin can displace Holt next year. He should in September. Holt's severe lack of power this year makes him no longer a major league player, but of course he's had a rough year with the concussions. I hope he can recover next year, but it's also good to have other options.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 23, 2017 14:58:13 GMT -5
Someone respectable online opined that Lin had established a probable career as an MLB utility INF. I think that nails it on the nose.
As Marrero is out of options, I think Lin's role next year, at lest initially, is to compete with Hernandez as the AAA guy who gets recalled whenever Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, or Holt is on the DL. That's great depth.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2017 16:17:42 GMT -5
Someone respectable online opined that Lin had established a probable career as an MLB utility INF. I think that nails it on the nose. As Marrero is out of options, I think his role next year, at lest initially, is to compete with Hernandez as the AAA guy who gets recalled whenever Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, or Holt is on the DL. That's great depth. It's pretty tough to keep a guy without options as depth in AAA. If he's worth a damn at all, he'd get claimed when he's DFA'd. For example, Bryce Brentz hasn't been called up all year because they'd probably lose him as soon as there was no longer room for him on the roster (or that is my guess on why he hasn't been up yet). He's only depth for a season-long injury and in September.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 23, 2017 16:18:47 GMT -5
Someone respectable online opined that Lin had established a probable career as an MLB utility INF. I think that nails it on the nose. As Marrero is out of options, I think his role next year, at lest initially, is to compete with Hernandez as the AAA guy who gets recalled whenever Pedroia, Bogaerts, Devers, or Holt is on the DL. That's great depth. It's pretty tough to keep a guy without options as depth in AAA. If he's worth a damn at all, he'd get claimed when he's DFA'd. For example, Bryce Brentz hasn't been called up all year because they'd probably lose him as soon as there was no longer room for him on the roster. He's only depth for a season-long injury and in September. He meant because Marrero is out of options, he thinks Lin's role will be X. Lin has 2 options remaining, as will Hernandez (didn't burn one this year). Don't worry, I read that the way you did at first too.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2017 16:32:25 GMT -5
It's pretty tough to keep a guy without options as depth in AAA. If he's worth a damn at all, he'd get claimed when he's DFA'd. For example, Bryce Brentz hasn't been called up all year because they'd probably lose him as soon as there was no longer room for him on the roster. He's only depth for a season-long injury and in September. He meant because Marrero is out of options, he thinks Lin's role will be X. Lin has 2 options remaining, as will Hernandez (didn't burn one this year). Don't worry, I read that the way you did at first too. Doh! Now I get it. But I think Lin may compete with Holt next year for a roster spot.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 23, 2017 17:02:38 GMT -5
He meant because Marrero is out of options, he thinks Lin's role will be X. Lin has 2 options remaining, as will Hernandez (didn't burn one this year). Don't worry, I read that the way you did at first too. Doh! Now I get it. But I think Lin may compete with Holt next year for a roster spot. And I fixed the post! You don't want to kill your INF depth by dealing Holt in ST and leaving just Hernandez as a backup. Two injuries, and you have no one. And we've often had two injuries at a time this year, since Hernandez missed most of the year. If Holt is still playing like he's concussed next year, the thing to do is to put him on the DL. I wouldn't conclude he's no longer valuable as a player for a good long while.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 23, 2017 17:07:45 GMT -5
Doh! Now I get it. But I think Lin may compete with Holt next year for a roster spot. And I fixed the post! You don't want to kill your INF depth by dealing Holt in ST and leaving just Hernandez as a backup. Two injuries, and you have no one. And we've often had two injuries at a time this year, since Hernandez missed most of the year. If Holt is still playing like he's concussed next year, the thing to do is to put him on the DL. I wouldn't conclude he's no longer valuable as a player for a good long while. I believe Holt has one more option that could be used next year if necessary. He might even be a non-tender candidate depending on how much money they're working with.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 23, 2017 17:40:49 GMT -5
Not that I think he moves the needle to the extent that you would let a Brock Holt go, but Chad De La Guerra is another guy who should reach AAA in 2018 and is capable of playing both middle infield positions. So if at some point Tsu-Wei Lin is the utility guy at the ML level, you could conceivably still have Marco Hernandez and CDLG as depth at 2B and SS in AAA. You can never have enough of these guys though.
I do agree that on paper for 2018, you would have Holt at the ML level, Lin and Hernandez occupying the AAA infield, and CDLG beginning the season at AA (or as the AAA utility guy receiving substantial reps). There will certainly be enough injuries throughout the season that allows these guys to advance.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 23, 2017 23:58:17 GMT -5
I'm thinking Holt will be a non tender.
ADD: If, as has been suggested, the financial objective this year was to reset the clock, it's likely we will go over the cap next year.
The Sox could, hypothetically, sign Nunez as the often used utility infielder, and add Castillo as the 4th outfielder. That would only leave first base to deal with.
At this point, I doubt if we will see any of Holt, Young, Moreland or Reed on next year's team.
Brentz, Lin or Marrero would then become the potential final piece.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 15, 2018 14:03:56 GMT -5
Lin is hitting nothing but line drives. Is this for real?
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Apr 15, 2018 14:05:06 GMT -5
Tzu-Wei LIN! Yes, its for real. He has some of the best bat control on the team. He could be starting for any 2nd division club right now. What an awesome development he has been.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 15, 2018 15:27:11 GMT -5
Lin is hitting nothing but line drives. Is this for real? If his change in approach last year is to be believed (big GB rate drop, bump in LD and FB), yes. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14678&position=2B/3B/SS. He’s also really a quality defensive SS and he’s got a great eye. He’s a guy who looks to me like he could hit .270/.350/.375 if the batting approach keeps up, and contribute on defense and on the bases. Obviously the 30% LD rate in MLB is unsustainable, as is the .400+ BABIP. But a LD/GB/FB breakdown similar to his full-season totals last year (22-25%/43-45%/35-40%) and a BB rate of 10-12% seem fairly realistic. He’s cutting his K rate this year (tho SSS caveat). What a terrific development win for the Sox. A little more strength and a bit more development and he’s maybe pushing above-average starter territory. He’s still just turned 24, so I’m very confident that he’s got at least some incremental improvements coming.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 15, 2018 15:44:15 GMT -5
Lin is hitting nothing but line drives. Is this for real? If his change in approach last year is to be believed (big GB rate drop, bump in LD and FB), yes. www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14678&position=2B/3B/SS. He’s also really a quality defensive SS and he’s got a great eye. He’s a guy who looks to me like he could hit .270/.350/.375 if the batting approach keeps up, and contribute on defense and on the bases. Obviously the 30% LD rate in MLB is unsustainable, as is the .400+ BABIP. But a LD/GB/FB breakdown similar to his full-season totals last year (22-25%/43-45%/35-40%) and a BB rate of 10-12% seem fairly realistic. He’s cutting his K rate this year (tho SSS caveat). What a terrific development win for the Sox. A little more strength and a bit more development and he’s maybe pushing above-average starter territory. He’s still just turned 24, so I’m very confident that he’s got at least some incremental improvements coming. It's hard not getting swept up in what Lin and the Sox are doing...just a great start but against at best, mediocre teams. As I recall Lin exploded early on last year. But he is a defender first. Any offense is gravy. He has very good strike zone judgment...a grind it out dirt dog. Right now pitchers appear to be trying to beat him with the FB perhaps based on his stature. He's proved he can hit it. What next? I'd like to think Lin could replace Holt...a good guy with outstanding minor league stats that haven't translated to MLB perhaps because of injuries. The coming road trip will offer more clues as to what we are.
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Post by marrcus on Apr 16, 2018 1:48:44 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 16, 2018 2:08:58 GMT -5
Okay, I acknowledge, fluke was a bad word. My apologies to the board. I should have used consistent. Is Lin consistent with the bat?
I agree with everyone that the approach seems to be consistent. Lin is sort of like Bigfoot out there to me right now. I know what he sort of looks like (with the bat) and sort of what he brings (again with the bat), but he broke out just a year ago.
This guy was a afterthought just 2 years ago.
I need to see more proof of Bigfoot before I know he's real. Lol.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 16, 2018 9:06:28 GMT -5
Okay, I acknowledge, fluke was a bad word. My apologies to the board. I should have used consistent. Is Lin consistent with the bat? I agree with everyone that the approach seems to be consistent. Lin is sort of like Bigfoot out there to me right now. I know what he sort of looks like (with the bat) and sort of what he brings (again with the bat), but he broke out just a year ago. This guy was a afterthought just 2 years ago. I need to see more proof of Bigfoot before I know he's real. Lol. As documented here on the forum last year, Lin dramatically changed his batted ball profile last year. They focused on getting him to stop using the "slap and run" swing mechanics that a lot of us, if we're being honest here, probably associate with some players who've signed out of Asia, in favor of getting him to stay in the box and trying to drive the ball in the air. At the time this was being reported, it wasn't necessarily a "launch angle" sort of thing, but you could probably still call him one of the initial launch angle success stories, certainly the first in the system. Anyway, just look at the batted ball profile year over year: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?player=624407Before 2017, his lowest GB% in a season was 47.3%, and in Portland, it had been over 54%. Last year, across 3 levels, he dropped that number to 37%. He started driving the ball with more authority in the air, and his numbers went up accordingly: after a sub-.600 OPS in a year and a half in Portland in 2015-16, he was at .745 between Portland and Pawtucket last year. Jeffrey Pasternostro of BP tweeted on Saturday his regret at not putting Lin in the BP Red Sox top 10 entering last season. I think that's poor, revisionist thinking. Post-2016 Lin was a non-prospect who wasn't going to hit the ball out of the infield in the majors - he was a good fielder, but the bat was markedly worse than Marrero's - and I would've bet against him ever seeing Pawtucket except for emergencies. But in remaking his swing, Lin has made himself into a major league caliber utility player, for sure. I'm not sure he's ever going to be an average regular (I'm going to assume you're all going to be in the same boat as me in that he didn't hit nearly as well last year as you remember), but he's a player that fits in just fine on a major league bench. I'll admit that I was gone over the weekend (man, what a weekend in Charlottesville weather-wise...), so I'm not sure what you're referring to in wanting to see if it's real. If you're referring to whether he's going to turn back into 2016 Lin, I think we can safely say the sample size is big enough that there clearly has been an improvement. If you're referring to what he's done in the last three games, no, he's not a 241 OPS+ hitter, obviously.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Apr 16, 2018 10:44:09 GMT -5
Lin's batted ball Exit Velocities yesterday: 102.7 mph flyball to RF for an out 98.1 mph groundball to RF for a single 99.6 mph line drive to RF for a double 93.6 mph groundball to 2nd for an out He was scorching the ball all day yesterday. With his elite strike zone awarness and very good bat control and the revamped swing, I can see an above avg major leaguer. anyway, he's better at baseball than Brock Holt.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 16, 2018 10:51:10 GMT -5
Okay, I acknowledge, fluke was a bad word. My apologies to the board. I should have used consistent. Is Lin consistent with the bat? I agree with everyone that the approach seems to be consistent. Lin is sort of like Bigfoot out there to me right now. I know what he sort of looks like (with the bat) and sort of what he brings (again with the bat), but he broke out just a year ago. This guy was a afterthought just 2 years ago. I need to see more proof of Bigfoot before I know he's real. Lol. As documented here on the forum last year, Lin dramatically changed his batted ball profile last year. They focused on getting him to stop using the "slap and run" swing mechanics that a lot of us, if we're being honest here, probably associate with some players who've signed out of Asia, in favor of getting him to stay in the box and trying to drive the ball in the air. At the time this was being reported, it wasn't necessarily a "launch angle" sort of thing, but you could probably still call him one of the initial launch angle success stories, certainly the first in the system. Anyway, just look at the batted ball profile year over year: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?player=624407Before 2017, his lowest GB% in a season was 47.3%, and in Portland, it had been over 54%. Last year, across 3 levels, he dropped that number to 37%. He started driving the ball with more authority in the air, and his numbers went up accordingly: after a sub-.600 OPS in a year and a half in Portland in 2015-16, he was at .745 between Portland and Pawtucket last year. Jeffrey Pasternostro of BP tweeted on Saturday his regret at not putting Lin in the BP Red Sox top 10 entering last season. I think that's poor, revisionist thinking. Post-2016 Lin was a non-prospect who wasn't going to hit the ball out of the infield in the majors - he was a good fielder, but the bat was markedly worse than Marrero's - and I would've bet against him ever seeing Pawtucket except for emergencies. But in remaking his swing, Lin has made himself into a major league caliber utility player, for sure. I'm not sure he's ever going to be an average regular (I'm going to assume you're all going to be in the same boat as me in that he didn't hit nearly as well last year as you remember), but he's a player that fits in just fine on a major league bench. I'll admit that I was gone over the weekend (man, what a weekend in Charlottesville weather-wise...), so I'm not sure what you're referring to in wanting to see if it's real. If you're referring to whether he's going to turn back into 2016 Lin, I think we can safely say the sample size is big enough that there clearly has been an improvement. If you're referring to what he's done in the last three games, no, he's not a 241 OPS+ hitter, obviously.I could be mistaken, and I probably shouldn't speak for Pedro, so I'll speak for myself - Lin had a .602 OPS in about 150 plate appearances for Pawtucket. That's a pretty lackluster line. His AA line was excellent and totally different than in seasons past and he did hold his own in Boston last season as he has thus far. But I still want to see more before I'm convinced. His AAA line last season didn't look that different than his lines in other season, so what's real? Is it the breakthrough and how decent he's look at AA and Boston or is it the struggle he had in AAA? It's quite possible that his changes have definitely made him a better player but he just had a horrific slump that he would have worked out of had he had more than 150 plate appearances, but I just need to see more. So far, so good. At the moment he looks like a guy you keep on the roster and certainly on the post-season roster assuming the 5th bench player (and 11 pitchers) instead of the normal 4 bench player setup and 12 man pitching staff. I'd think his only real competition for that spot ultimately would be Marcos Hernandez if he gets healthy.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 16, 2018 11:14:31 GMT -5
I just hope DDo doesn't trade Lin for the next hurt setup man. He seems like a player who is going to pull a Travis Shaw and be way better in the majors than he ever was in the minors.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 16, 2018 12:13:07 GMT -5
As documented here on the forum last year, Lin dramatically changed his batted ball profile last year. They focused on getting him to stop using the "slap and run" swing mechanics that a lot of us, if we're being honest here, probably associate with some players who've signed out of Asia, in favor of getting him to stay in the box and trying to drive the ball in the air. At the time this was being reported, it wasn't necessarily a "launch angle" sort of thing, but you could probably still call him one of the initial launch angle success stories, certainly the first in the system. Anyway, just look at the batted ball profile year over year: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?player=624407Before 2017, his lowest GB% in a season was 47.3%, and in Portland, it had been over 54%. Last year, across 3 levels, he dropped that number to 37%. He started driving the ball with more authority in the air, and his numbers went up accordingly: after a sub-.600 OPS in a year and a half in Portland in 2015-16, he was at .745 between Portland and Pawtucket last year. Jeffrey Pasternostro of BP tweeted on Saturday his regret at not putting Lin in the BP Red Sox top 10 entering last season. I think that's poor, revisionist thinking. Post-2016 Lin was a non-prospect who wasn't going to hit the ball out of the infield in the majors - he was a good fielder, but the bat was markedly worse than Marrero's - and I would've bet against him ever seeing Pawtucket except for emergencies. But in remaking his swing, Lin has made himself into a major league caliber utility player, for sure. I'm not sure he's ever going to be an average regular (I'm going to assume you're all going to be in the same boat as me in that he didn't hit nearly as well last year as you remember), but he's a player that fits in just fine on a major league bench. I'll admit that I was gone over the weekend (man, what a weekend in Charlottesville weather-wise...), so I'm not sure what you're referring to in wanting to see if it's real. If you're referring to whether he's going to turn back into 2016 Lin, I think we can safely say the sample size is big enough that there clearly has been an improvement. If you're referring to what he's done in the last three games, no, he's not a 241 OPS+ hitter, obviously.I could be mistaken, and I probably shouldn't speak for Pedro, so I'll speak for myself - Lin had a .602 OPS in about 150 plate appearances for Pawtucket. That's a pretty lackluster line. His AA line was excellent and totally different than in seasons past and he did hold his own in Boston last season as he has thus far. But I still want to see more before I'm convinced. His AAA line last season didn't look that different than his lines in other season, so what's real? Is it the breakthrough and how decent he's look at AA and Boston or is it the struggle he had in AAA? It's quite possible that his changes have definitely made him a better player but he just had a horrific slump that he would have worked out of had he had more than 150 plate appearances, but I just need to see more. So far, so good. At the moment he looks like a guy you keep on the roster and certainly on the post-season roster assuming the 5th bench player (and 11 pitchers) instead of the normal 4 bench player setup and 12 man pitching staff. I'd think his only real competition for that spot ultimately would be Marcos Hernandez if he gets healthy. Fair point. I think there was a little bit of poor luck (.270 BABIP on a 17.4% LD% suggests that should be a shade higher, but not a ton). He was also getting a ton of time in CF relative to the rest of his career (20 of his 30 career starts in CF came in that 35 game sample), so I give him a bit of benefit of the doubt there as well. His GB rate did see some regression in Pawtucket and Boston after its decline in Portland (33.3% in Portland, 41.3% in Pawtucket, 43.2% in Boston). However, it also didn't go all the way back up to where it was. I guess my point wasn't that he is a true talent .800 OPS guy in the majors, but he's going to hit enough to justify a roster spot, whereas I didn't think he'd do that pre-2017. He's ranked 21st in the system here on the site in a very weak system, and the three of us who set the rankings all pretty much agree on that (range was 19th to 22nd, with me the high man). That makes him a 4 projection at best, which is an up-and-down, replacement level player. I'm inclined to think he's got a few seasons of being a 0-1 win bench player in him in the right situation, but I'm not saying he should start for a contending team or anything.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 16, 2018 14:58:39 GMT -5
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Post by wuhsi on Apr 16, 2018 16:33:05 GMT -5
Before Lin's lackluster AAA line, he also had only one single in his last 11 MLB at bat after all star break '17. His pre-break OPS was .871. If we look at the number of inning Lin played, he had 88 innings between Jun 29 and Jul 9 (10 games in 11 days). And before he was sent to AAA, he played 32 inning in less than 30 hours at Fenway (remember the series against Yankees, one game went into 16 innings, followed by a double header). That being said, it's not about whether he was in AA, AAA, or MLB last year. He was hitting the balls pre-all-star break, and lost it in the 2nd half, both in AAA and MLB. Can fatigue be one of the factors that degraded Lin's batting stats last year after all star break? Well, I have not seen interviews from Lin around that time, so we'll never know. But it's great to see Lin being the 1st half 2017 version of himself now. Lin's 2017 Game Log (Fielding)
As documented here on the forum last year, Lin dramatically changed his batted ball profile last year. They focused on getting him to stop using the "slap and run" swing mechanics that a lot of us, if we're being honest here, probably associate with some players who've signed out of Asia, in favor of getting him to stay in the box and trying to drive the ball in the air. At the time this was being reported, it wasn't necessarily a "launch angle" sort of thing, but you could probably still call him one of the initial launch angle success stories, certainly the first in the system. Anyway, just look at the batted ball profile year over year: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?player=624407Before 2017, his lowest GB% in a season was 47.3%, and in Portland, it had been over 54%. Last year, across 3 levels, he dropped that number to 37%. He started driving the ball with more authority in the air, and his numbers went up accordingly: after a sub-.600 OPS in a year and a half in Portland in 2015-16, he was at .745 between Portland and Pawtucket last year. Jeffrey Pasternostro of BP tweeted on Saturday his regret at not putting Lin in the BP Red Sox top 10 entering last season. I think that's poor, revisionist thinking. Post-2016 Lin was a non-prospect who wasn't going to hit the ball out of the infield in the majors - he was a good fielder, but the bat was markedly worse than Marrero's - and I would've bet against him ever seeing Pawtucket except for emergencies. But in remaking his swing, Lin has made himself into a major league caliber utility player, for sure. I'm not sure he's ever going to be an average regular (I'm going to assume you're all going to be in the same boat as me in that he didn't hit nearly as well last year as you remember), but he's a player that fits in just fine on a major league bench. I'll admit that I was gone over the weekend (man, what a weekend in Charlottesville weather-wise...), so I'm not sure what you're referring to in wanting to see if it's real. If you're referring to whether he's going to turn back into 2016 Lin, I think we can safely say the sample size is big enough that there clearly has been an improvement. If you're referring to what he's done in the last three games, no, he's not a 241 OPS+ hitter, obviously.I could be mistaken, and I probably shouldn't speak for Pedro, so I'll speak for myself - Lin had a .602 OPS in about 150 plate appearances for Pawtucket. That's a pretty lackluster line. His AA line was excellent and totally different than in seasons past and he did hold his own in Boston last season as he has thus far. But I still want to see more before I'm convinced. His AAA line last season didn't look that different than his lines in other season, so what's real? Is it the breakthrough and how decent he's look at AA and Boston or is it the struggle he had in AAA? It's quite possible that his changes have definitely made him a better player but he just had a horrific slump that he would have worked out of had he had more than 150 plate appearances, but I just need to see more. So far, so good. At the moment he looks like a guy you keep on the roster and certainly on the post-season roster assuming the 5th bench player (and 11 pitchers) instead of the normal 4 bench player setup and 12 man pitching staff. I'd think his only real competition for that spot ultimately would be Marcos Hernandez if he gets healthy.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 16, 2018 17:51:01 GMT -5
Lin's batted ball Exit Velocities yesterday: 102.7 mph flyball to RF for an out 98.1 mph groundball to RF for a single 99.6 mph line drive to RF for a double 93.6 mph groundball to 2nd for an out He was scorching the ball all day yesterday. With his elite strike zone awarness and very good bat control and the revamped swing, I can see an above avg major leaguer. anyway, he's better at baseball than Brock Holt. I think, from my standpoint, that’s the real issue here. Lin has always had excellent contact skills. I’m not so worried about the batted ball frequency changes and the bump in K rate as he’s climbed levels last year. AA to MLB is a big jump, and given the quality of stuff changes, especially on offspeed/breaking stuff, that’s sort of to be expected. But also not to be lost is what I think may be recognition of and execution of a role: taking more pitches and getting on base. It’s much less concerning to me to see his K rate jump when his walk rate has, too. And I can see how, with much better pitching, there may be some regression/reversion in his batted ball frequencies as he tries to simply make contact with better stuff/sequencing/etc. In a small MLB sample, his batted ball frequencies (while the GB rate has climbed) are still a lot more encouraging than the 55% GB rates he was putting up early in his career. Idk if he can transform his contact/frequencies into sort of a poor-man’s Ramirez/Murphy, but that seems to be the direction he’s headed in. And certainly, the general approach (as Chris said) is over a large enough sample that it’s real. So frankly, I think, as you brought up, the real question as to his eventual offensive upside lies in the quality of contact. In limited MLB time, he’s been a LD machine. That’s also, BY FAR, the last batted ball frequency to stabilize. But if he’s making the sort of scorching hard contact you describe, and he can do so consistently (his bat control and the fact that Hyers is a huge proponent of ball-in-air hitting, with multiple successes to his coaching credit, bode well for that), he’s going to hit, and hit well, in MLB. Obviously Murphy/Ramirez are the 1-2% outcome cases, but an elite (or more likely just very good) contact hitter who has LD power and excellent bat control is, as a LH, going to hit in Fenway. He’ll learn to pepper the wall and occasionally yank one around the Pesky pole. I’m standing by .270/.350/.375 as my roughly 40-60% outcome. But if his exit velos are this strong for extended periods (and at 24, with MLB strength training and maturation both physically and approach-wise, it’s not even unlikely), i think we all need to reassess our thinking, which is probably strongly colored by his prospect history. At some point, guys like Turner, Murphy, and JDM, and Jose Ramirez convinced people that their new was a new norm. If Lin’s regularly hitting LD at 95-100 mph, he could become a .290+/.400/.450 hitter, because if he’s scorching the ball, his walk rate is only headed up, and he might only hit 10 HR but he could hit 40 doubles in Fenway. Those exit velos are hugely encouraging.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Apr 16, 2018 18:24:39 GMT -5
He looks so different from his GCL days to me. Certainly his swing path has changed, but he has added some bulk. When I saw him this spring I was actually surprised. No idea how much muscle he has added, but his legs especially are larger. It is always amazing to see a "kid" in the GCL grow into a man over 3 to 4 years. At 24, Lin has just matured and that has added to the hard hit balls we are seeing.
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