SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on May 29, 2017 15:50:01 GMT -5
Come on you can't go by post made on message boards, or people would think your 6.5 million number was correct. Moustakas is currently a .3 bwar player through 44 games, mainly because of his bad D. Unless that greatly improves that's hardly the type of player you go all in for. I have to think you're mainly looking at his HRs and not the complete player. He's currently on pace to be a below average regular. People based their opinions off the actual payroll spreadsheet that I brought up. They weren't making anything up. I thought it was at 7 million, plus the 500k to add Boyer. An average player like Moustakas is still a improvement over anything the Sox have right now. He's currently below average, while still an upgrade it's all about cost. You don't trade a lot for a small upgrade. It's that simple. I'd rather a very good defender with a lesser bat at a fraction of the cost.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 15:54:44 GMT -5
People based their opinions off the actual payroll spreadsheet that I brought up. They weren't making anything up. I thought it was at 7 million, plus the 500k to add Boyer. An average player like Moustakas is still a improvement over anything the Sox have right now. He's currently below average, while still an upgrade it's all about cost. You don't trade a lot for a small upgrade. It's that simple. I'd rather a very good defender with a lesser bat at a fraction of the cost. Dave Dombrowski traded a top 20 prospect in the organization for a small upgrade in Ziegler last year and it worked. I think Dave would do it.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on May 29, 2017 16:02:21 GMT -5
He's currently below average, while still an upgrade it's all about cost. You don't trade a lot for a small upgrade. It's that simple. I'd rather a very good defender with a lesser bat at a fraction of the cost. Dave Dombrowski traded a top 20 prospect in the organization for a small upgrade in Ziegler last year and it worked. I think Dave would do it. It was a massive upgrade as he had over 1 bwar for us and it was seen as a steal of a deal at the time and still is in my book. Zeigler had the top war in our whole bullpen last year. Getting a 1 bwar positional player just isn't the same and your talking about trading a top 10 and a top 20 guy to make it happen. You want to trade a prospect or two that are around #20 I can agree depending on which ones. Not the hottest player in system that's a top 10 guy and most likely moves closer to top 5-7 in near future and another top 20 player that's pitching well.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2017 16:05:02 GMT -5
There is a massive difference between a top 20 prospect last year and this year.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on May 29, 2017 16:17:10 GMT -5
There is a massive difference between a top 20 prospect last year and this year. Mainly in the top 10. We lost a bunch of elite top end talent. At the same time we have had a bunch of players step up this year. I would have no problem giving up a Ziegler prospect package for an upgrade at third base.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2017 16:25:41 GMT -5
There is a massive difference between a top 20 prospect last year and this year. Mainly in the top 10. We lost a bunch of elite top end talent. At the same time we have had a bunch of players step up this year. I would have no problem giving up a Ziegler prospect package for an upgrade at third base. I guess the point was that Rijo at the value he was at in 2016 is probably top 10 if he were ranked this year, instead of top 20.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on May 29, 2017 16:49:39 GMT -5
For starters we have about 10 million in cap space to add talent, not 6.5 million. So theres no need to ship out players. I like the player, he's exactly what we need. Thing is he's playing shaky D at third right now, minus 5 DRS. Is that just a small sample size fluke or has his D fallen off? No way do I trade Chavis for him straight up, nevermind include more talent. Chavis is on his way to being a mid season top 100 prospect. A guy like Johnson would be fair value, but we need him for depth so no way. Look at our rule 5 guys, those are the type of players I trade. If they want more, move onto a guy like Plouffe. While I hate to trade Owens, he might be a guy I would part with. He could use a fresh start and a new team to try and fix him. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zPx_cKCQ7TQjab2kPM4zIhEFSDxrTpLLIEZr2xh5E8g/htmlview#gid=1603863171It's at exactly 8 million. This was updated after the Sox added Blane Hoyer yesterday. So no we were both wrong. The Sox aren't trading their only viable starting pitching depth in Brian Johnson. He's the only guy that has at least shown something in the majors recently. Lastly Chavis wasn't viewed as much as anything before this year and he's a player without a position at the moment because he's not currently good at third base. Chavis is the exact kind of player you sell high on when he has yet to do anything in the system besides this current year. Personally, I wouldn't trade Chavis for Moustakas, a rental. I don't think what Chavis is doing is very fluky. It's more like a 1st rounder playing up to his potential with the bat. The guy was injured last season, and tried to play through it. I don't know if he can cut it at 3b. I wouldn't rule him out at 3b. Fortunately for the Red Sox 3b down the road isn't likely a position of need. But he could wind up in LF and his bat could play for that, so you can't write him off defensively, and LF could be a position of need at some point in the next few years, say 2020ish. If Chavis is dealt it should be for somebody who's part of a solution for longer than two to three months, especially somebody who's not exactly a superstar.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 17:24:52 GMT -5
Dave Dombrowski traded a top 20 prospect in the organization for a small upgrade in Ziegler last year and it worked. I think Dave would do it. It was a massive upgrade as he had over 1 bwar for us and it was seen as a steal of a deal at the time and still is in my book. Zeigler had the top war in our whole bullpen last year. Getting a 1 bwar positional player just isn't the same and your talking about trading a top 10 and a top 20 guy to make it happen. You want to trade a prospect or two that are around #20 I can agree depending on which ones. Not the hottest player in system that's a top 10 guy and most likely moves closer to top 5-7 in near future and another top 20 player that's pitching well. You say the Ziegler was a significant add after the fact but the fact of the matter is that he was a reliever traded for a top 20 prospect of a good farm system. You act like Moustakas is clearly a bat only option. He had a DRS of 1 in 2016 and of 4 in 2015. His defense could stabilize as the year goes along and he improves to those kind of measures. Getting a average defender with a plus bat would be w significant upgrade over anything the Sox had all year at 3B. Moustakas could easily have a 1-2 bWar in the last 2 months of the season for the Sox by the end of the year.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2017 17:34:07 GMT -5
It was a massive upgrade as he had over 1 bwar for us and it was seen as a steal of a deal at the time and still is in my book. Zeigler had the top war in our whole bullpen last year. Getting a 1 bwar positional player just isn't the same and your talking about trading a top 10 and a top 20 guy to make it happen. You want to trade a prospect or two that are around #20 I can agree depending on which ones. Not the hottest player in system that's a top 10 guy and most likely moves closer to top 5-7 in near future and another top 20 player that's pitching well. You say the Ziegler was a significant add after the fact but the fact of the matter is that he was a reliever traded for a top 20 prospect of a good farm system. You act like Moustakas is clearly a bat only option. He had a DRS of 1 in 2016 and of 4 in 2015. His defense could stabilize as the year goes along and he improves to those kind of measures. Getting a average defender with a plus bat would be w significant upgrade over anything the Sox had all year at 3B. Moustakas could easily have a 1-2 bWar in the last 2 months of the season for the Sox by the end of the year. You say this as if only the Red Sox could possibly dream of this, but not the Royals or the other 28 teams in baseball. Also, the Ziegler trade was widely discussed as a huge steal by the Red Sox so it's pretty silly to think that's a similar price they'd pay for Moustakas. I'm not even sure why they're being compared to each other. Maybe you should compare upcoming free agent Chapman who was traded instead.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 17:44:07 GMT -5
You say the Ziegler was a significant add after the fact but the fact of the matter is that he was a reliever traded for a top 20 prospect of a good farm system. You act like Moustakas is clearly a bat only option. He had a DRS of 1 in 2016 and of 4 in 2015. His defense could stabilize as the year goes along and he improves to those kind of measures. Getting a average defender with a plus bat would be w significant upgrade over anything the Sox had all year at 3B. Moustakas could easily have a 1-2 bWar in the last 2 months of the season for the Sox by the end of the year. You say this as if only the Red Sox could possibly dream of this, but not the Royals or the other 28 teams in baseball. Also, the Ziegler trade was widely discussed as a huge steal by the Red Sox so it's pretty silly to think that's a similar price they'd pay for Moustakas. I'm not even sure why they're being compared to each other. Maybe you should compare upcoming free agent Chapman who was traded instead. He brought up marginal upgrades for a top prospect, saying you can't do it. I named one example. I don't think the Chapman example can be used because Chapman was one or the best relievers in baseball at the time. Moustakas is merely a above average third baseman overall.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2017 17:47:58 GMT -5
You say this as if only the Red Sox could possibly dream of this, but not the Royals or the other 28 teams in baseball. Also, the Ziegler trade was widely discussed as a huge steal by the Red Sox so it's pretty silly to think that's a similar price they'd pay for Moustakas. I'm not even sure why they're being compared to each other. Maybe you should compare upcoming free agent Chapman who was traded instead. He brought up marginal upgrades for a top prospect, saying you can't do it. I named one example. I don't think the Chapman example can be used because Chapman was one or the best relievers in baseball at the time. Moustakas is merely a above average third baseman overall. And then you said he could be worth roughly double what Ziegler was in terms of WAR. And Ziegler was a very pleasant surprise in terms of performance after the trade.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 18:02:44 GMT -5
He brought up marginal upgrades for a top prospect, saying you can't do it. I named one example. I don't think the Chapman example can be used because Chapman was one or the best relievers in baseball at the time. Moustakas is merely a above average third baseman overall. And then you said he could be worth roughly double what Ziegler was in terms of WAR. And Ziegler was a very pleasant surprise in terms of performance after the trade. Well Moustakas is a everyday player, right? He could easily get hot and be worth double of that of Ziegler. Don't need to convince me about the Ziegler trade, I liked that trade. I love adding the chances of winning each year.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on May 29, 2017 18:06:01 GMT -5
And then you said he could be worth roughly double what Ziegler was in terms of WAR. And Ziegler was a very pleasant surprise in terms of performance after the trade. Well Moustakas is a everyday player, right? He could easily get hot be worth double of that of Ziegler. Don't need to convince me about the Ziegler trade, I liked that trade. I love adding the chances of winning each year. Which is why he'll cost significantly more than Ziegler.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 18:27:57 GMT -5
Well Moustakas is a everyday player, right? He could easily get hot be worth double of that of Ziegler. Don't need to convince me about the Ziegler trade, I liked that trade. I love adding the chances of winning each year. Which is why he'll cost significantly more than Ziegler. I'm okay with that. Outside out of the top 5 prospects, I could see a package of Chavis, Beeks, and another lottery ticket for Moose.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on May 29, 2017 18:58:52 GMT -5
Mainly in the top 10. We lost a bunch of elite top end talent. At the same time we have had a bunch of players step up this year. I would have no problem giving up a Ziegler prospect package for an upgrade at third base. I guess the point was that Rijo at the value he was at in 2016 is probably top 10 if he were ranked this year, instead of top 20. Wrong prospect, Rijos wasn't traded for Ziegler. Your thinking of a different trade. I also don't think Basabe is a top 10 guy. You can debate that, but he was seen as having a utility guy ceiling, with a very low floor.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on May 29, 2017 19:06:01 GMT -5
It was a massive upgrade as he had over 1 bwar for us and it was seen as a steal of a deal at the time and still is in my book. Zeigler had the top war in our whole bullpen last year. Getting a 1 bwar positional player just isn't the same and your talking about trading a top 10 and a top 20 guy to make it happen. You want to trade a prospect or two that are around #20 I can agree depending on which ones. Not the hottest player in system that's a top 10 guy and most likely moves closer to top 5-7 in near future and another top 20 player that's pitching well. You say the Ziegler was a significant add after the fact but the fact of the matter is that he was a reliever traded for a top 20 prospect of a good farm system. You act like Moustakas is clearly a bat only option. He had a DRS of 1 in 2016 and of 4 in 2015. His defense could stabilize as the year goes along and he improves to those kind of measures. Getting a average defender with a plus bat would be w significant upgrade over anything the Sox had all year at 3B. Moustakas could easily have a 1-2 bWar in the last 2 months of the season for the Sox by the end of the year. He tore his ACL last year and missed most of the year. He's either not 100% or he's just not the same player. No one knows what's going on, but he's clearly not the defensive player he used to be right now. Get back to me when he improves, because he's been really bad so far this year.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 19:59:39 GMT -5
You say the Ziegler was a significant add after the fact but the fact of the matter is that he was a reliever traded for a top 20 prospect of a good farm system. You act like Moustakas is clearly a bat only option. He had a DRS of 1 in 2016 and of 4 in 2015. His defense could stabilize as the year goes along and he improves to those kind of measures. Getting a average defender with a plus bat would be w significant upgrade over anything the Sox had all year at 3B. Moustakas could easily have a 1-2 bWar in the last 2 months of the season for the Sox by the end of the year. He tore his ACL last year and missed most of the year. He's either not 100% or he's just not the same player. No one knows what's going on, but he's clearly not the defensive player he used to be right now. Get back to me when he improves, because he's been really bad so far this year. He hasn't been good but you're being a little overdramatic about his bad defense so far. He has a -5 DRS rating on defense so far this year. Maybe he's slowly working his way back from knee surgery, but recent history suggests that when he does, he'll be above average there at third. If you think his Moustakas has been awful, I would hate to know what you think of Xander's -7 DRS so far this season.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 20:05:32 GMT -5
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zPx_cKCQ7TQjab2kPM4zIhEFSDxrTpLLIEZr2xh5E8g/htmlview#gid=1603863171It's at exactly 8 million. This was updated after the Sox added Blane Hoyer yesterday. So no we were both wrong. The Sox aren't trading their only viable starting pitching depth in Brian Johnson. He's the only guy that has at least shown something in the majors recently. Lastly Chavis wasn't viewed as much as anything before this year and he's a player without a position at the moment because he's not currently good at third base. Chavis is the exact kind of player you sell high on when he has yet to do anything in the system besides this current year. Personally, I wouldn't trade Chavis for Moustakas, a rental. I don't think what Chavis is doing is very fluky. It's more like a 1st rounder playing up to his potential with the bat. The guy was injured last season, and tried to play through it. I don't know if he can cut it at 3b. I wouldn't rule him out at 3b. Fortunately for the Red Sox 3b down the road isn't likely a position of need. But he could wind up in LF and his bat could play for that, so you can't write him off defensively, and LF could be a position of need at some point in the next few years, say 2020ish. If Chavis is dealt it should be for somebody who's part of a solution for longer than two to three months, especially somebody who's not exactly a superstar. I'm not as high on Chavis as others. The whole not having a position thing kind of really puts a lot of questions about him as a prospect. His power is for real though. He has been hot at high A ball, which he repeated from last season. He also has been prone to a lot of strikeouts throughout his time in the minors. Chavis is just giving me a lot Bryce Brentz revisionist history. First round pick, plenty of power, plenty of strikeouts, no position he can play on the field adequately. The only thing that Chavis has over Brentz is that Chavis was way younger when he was drafted. I'm selling high on Chavis regardless if I'm Dombrowski, the questions on defense kind of seals my decision of personally wanting to sell high on him.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on May 29, 2017 20:48:38 GMT -5
Personally, I wouldn't trade Chavis for Moustakas, a rental. I don't think what Chavis is doing is very fluky. It's more like a 1st rounder playing up to his potential with the bat. The guy was injured last season, and tried to play through it. I don't know if he can cut it at 3b. I wouldn't rule him out at 3b. Fortunately for the Red Sox 3b down the road isn't likely a position of need. But he could wind up in LF and his bat could play for that, so you can't write him off defensively, and LF could be a position of need at some point in the next few years, say 2020ish. If Chavis is dealt it should be for somebody who's part of a solution for longer than two to three months, especially somebody who's not exactly a superstar. I'm not as high on Chavis as others. The whole not having a position thing kind of really puts a lot of questions about him as a prospect. His power is for real though. He has been hot at high A ball, which he repeated from last season. He also has been prone to a lot of strikeouts throughout his time in the minors. Chavis is just giving me a lot Bryce Brentz revisionist history. First round pick, plenty of power, plenty of strikeouts, no position he can play on the field adequately. The only thing that Chavis has over Brentz is that Chavis was way younger when he was drafted. I'm selling high on Chavis regardless if I'm Dombrowski, the questions on defense kind of seals my decision of personally wanting to sell high on him. I think you're discounting the injury factor from last season. I don't think he's a player who simply stunk the 1st year and now in his second year finally figured it out. I think the injuries contributed heavily to his lackluster season and high strikeout totals. I think the bat can possibly play. The defensive position is a fair question.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on May 29, 2017 20:50:30 GMT -5
He has been hot at high A ball, which he repeated from last season. Chavis had 27 plate appearances at High A last year after a very late promotion. Going back there would not be considered repeating the level.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 21:02:32 GMT -5
He has been hot at high A ball, which he repeated from last season. Chavis had 27 plate appearances at High A last year after a very late promotion. Going back there would not be considered repeating the level. Forgot that A ball was the level he repeated twice. Thanks for the correction.
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on May 29, 2017 21:49:50 GMT -5
He tore his ACL last year and missed most of the year. He's either not 100% or he's just not the same player. No one knows what's going on, but he's clearly not the defensive player he used to be right now. Get back to me when he improves, because he's been really bad so far this year. He hasn't been good but you're being a little overdramatic about his bad defense so far. He has a -5 DRS rating on defense so far this year. Maybe he's slowly working his way back from knee surgery, but recent history suggests that when he does, he'll be above average there at third. If you think his Moustakas has been awful, I would hate to know what you think of Xander's -7 DRS so far this season. Not really, for a guy known as a good defensive player that's really bad. It tells me something is wrong. Maybe he gets better, maybe it takes him till next year to get better, maybe his days of being a good defensive player are over. We need a bunch more information that we just don't have. Bogaerts D is horrible and getting worse. Thing is his bat at SS is huge. That's why he still has a 1.3 bwar, even with his bad D.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 21:55:03 GMT -5
He hasn't been good but you're being a little overdramatic about his bad defense so far. He has a -5 DRS rating on defense so far this year. Maybe he's slowly working his way back from knee surgery, but recent history suggests that when he does, he'll be above average there at third. If you think his Moustakas has been awful, I would hate to know what you think of Xander's -7 DRS so far this season. Not really, for a guy known as a good defensive player that's really bad. It tells me something is wrong. Maybe he gets better, maybe it takes him till next year to get better, maybe his days of being a good defensive player are over. So basically you just listed every possible option including "he may get better" while saying, "it tells me something is wrong." You don't see the complete contradiction in this sentence?
|
|
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on May 29, 2017 22:12:28 GMT -5
Not really, for a guy known as a good defensive player that's really bad. It tells me something is wrong. Maybe he gets better, maybe it takes him till next year to get better, maybe his days of being a good defensive player are over. So basically you just listed every possible option including "he may get better" while saying, "it tells me something is wrong." You don't see the complete contradiction in this sentence? Pedro come on. Currently something is wrong, at this given time. I then listed what could happen, as in its not a given he gets better. I did that because you acted like it was a given he gets better as the year goes on. Maybe he does, we just don't know. He might need his knee scoped, or a follow up surgery. Maybe it was bad and he has nerve damage and is never the same. He was a good defensive player and is currently very bad. Bogaerts has mostly been bad defensively, so it's not anytype of red flag. It's like Bradley tearing his ACL and coming back and being bad defensively. It would be a big worry, because something would have to be wrong with him for that to happen.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 29, 2017 23:02:17 GMT -5
Maybe Moustakas is just playing poorly on defense through the first half of the season.
Sam Travis went through the same kind of thing last off-season. I'm not going to assume his defense would be in decline, if it was because of it.
You would never know if the knee was a issue until the trade anyways. The Sox would have to review the medicals, and if they check out fine then there shouldn't be any worries outside of him just playing poorly defensively to start the year.
|
|
|