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Midseason rankings update boogaloo
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2017 9:35:39 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 6, 2017 11:08:08 GMT -5
-Kopech moving up from 36 to 25 despite not having a particularly good season is surprising. He's been atrocious since the start of June. 25 1/3 innings, 7.46 ERA, 26 K, 22 BB.
-They're concerned enough about Espinoza to have moved him out of the Top 50.
-My hot take is that Victor Robles will be the universal #1 by the end of the year, whether Moncada graduates or not. (If Moncada doesn't graduate it probably also means something went wrong, but that's another discussion). He's an absolute monster.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2017 12:03:01 GMT -5
Well, Swanson, Benintendi, Glasnow, Frazier, Gsellman, Margot, Hader, Bell, Bellinger, Martes, and Garrett, by my count, all either graduated and/or are now in the majors and were ranked ahead of Kopech in the preseason. There's your 11-spot jump, so he's really just holding steady while others move up and down around him. Preseason list, for those wondering: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160 |
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Post by manfred on Jul 6, 2017 12:27:38 GMT -5
I have to admit, even w/ Yoan at #1, I feel great about Chris Sale and the 5th best prospect in baseball. I am rooting for AE, but if he's out of the top 50, it starts to make Pom trade more and more prescient, too.
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Post by patford on Jul 6, 2017 12:30:52 GMT -5
-Kopech moving up from 36 to 25 despite not having a particularly good season is surprising. He's been atrocious since the start of June. 25 1/3 innings, 7.46 ERA, 26 K, 22 BB. -They're concerned enough about Espinoza to have moved him out of the Top 50. -My hot take is that Victor Robles will be the universal #1 by the end of the year, whether Moncada graduates or not. (If Moncada doesn't graduate it probably also means something went wrong, but that's another discussion). He's an absolute monster. That's a weird one for sure. I looked at Kopech and Moncada just the other day and saw that Kopech has not been particularly good this year. The usual control problems. How they could move him up at all, let alone eleven spots, is inexplicable. It also struck me that I would not want to see the Sox swap #5 Devers for #1 Moncada if the offer were made. Moncada has a lot more speed, but it does not translate to him being a good base runner. I think Devers has the edge in every other department. Just saw the post by Chris which offers a list of 11 graduates who were in front of Kopech. Still not buying in with the control problems flaring up. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 6, 2017 12:58:02 GMT -5
Beeks will probably have a better career than Nuke Laloosh...err....Kopech
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 6, 2017 13:06:10 GMT -5
Well, Swanson, Benintendi, Glasnow, Frazier, Gsellman, Margot, Hader, Bell, Bellinger, Martes, and Garrett, by my count, all either graduated and/or are now in the majors and were ranked ahead of Kopech in the preseason. There's your 11-spot jump, so he's really just holding steady while others move up and down around him. Preseason list, for those wondering: www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160That's fair, and he's done a good job keeping the ball in the park. Looking at some of the guys he's passed, most of them are other pitchers: Groome has been hurt, Espinoza hasn't pitched, Lopez has been just okay at a level he's repeating, Giolito still isn't putting it together, Alvarez has struggled in the Cal League - I can understand all of them (I'd definitely have Lopez and Giolito ahead of him but I can see the argument). Hard to figure Albies and Adames though. Albies is more than holding his own in the IL as a 20-year-old, and Adames... Adames below Kopech is just nuts. Beeks will probably have a better career than Nuke Laloosh...err....Kopech That might be 50/50. And the chances Beeks has a better career than Groome are even higher. Upside matters too though. Groome and Kopech both have ace starter raw stuff. Beeks almost definitely ends up an okay major league reliever, and there's a chance he'll be a starter, but it'd be pretty shocking for him to become a front-end guy. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 6, 2017 13:10:36 GMT -5
-My hot take is that Victor Robles will be the universal #1 by the end of the year, whether Moncada graduates or not. (If Moncada doesn't graduate it probably also means something went wrong, but that's another discussion). He's an absolute monster. It's pronounced Rafael Devers. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 6, 2017 13:52:16 GMT -5
The thing with Kopech's control is that it's sort of come and gone. It hasn't been good ever, but if you look month-by-month:
April: 7.00 BB/9
May: 4.37 BB/9
June: 7.36 BB/9
I tweeted at some point last year a prediction that he'll lead the league in saves in 2020 or 2021 or something. I feel kind of vindicated by his performance this year - he's always been a future closer for me, and I think he'll be a good one. I just don't see the control to start, and think he'd be better off focusing on airing it out an inning at a time.
This is why it drove me nuts when everyone was freaking out about his velocity last year and in the AFL (I'm not referring to this forum - I mean just generally). Throwing the ball harder doesn't mean you get a bigger strike zone.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 7, 2017 8:20:32 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 7, 2017 9:04:43 GMT -5
Before people ask the questions, keep in mind that BA ranked draftees and players in MLB who haven't exhausted eligibility yet.
Unsure if they consider Travis to have graduated.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2017 9:18:53 GMT -5
Nice to see Chavis crack the top 100.
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Post by ryan24 on Jul 7, 2017 10:02:57 GMT -5
Nice to see Chavis crack the top 100. Interesting. Mlb.com does not have Chavis in the top 100. Between mlb and Ba, which would you rate higher. I guess who is more consistent has projected players better. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 7, 2017 10:12:19 GMT -5
MLB's list has not been updated.
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Post by bnich on Jul 7, 2017 10:56:51 GMT -5
With the signing of Thompson, where does he fit in the red sox rankings?
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Post by bnich on Jul 7, 2017 11:02:36 GMT -5
The thing with Kopech's control is that it's sort of come and gone. It hasn't been good ever, but if you look month-by-month: April: 7.00 BB/9 May: 4.37 BB/9 June: 7.36 BB/9 I tweeted at some point last year a prediction that he'll lead the league in saves in 2020 or 2021 or something. I feel kind of vindicated by his performance this year - he's always been a future closer for me, and I think he'll be a good one. I just don't see the control to start, and think he'd be better off focusing on airing it out an inning at a time. This is why it drove me nuts when everyone was freaking out about his velocity last year and in the AFL (I'm not referring to this forum - I mean just generally). Throwing the ball harder doesn't mean you get a bigger strike zone. You think he ends up more like a Joe Kelly type or definite back of the bullpen kind of guy? |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2017 11:05:51 GMT -5
The thing with Kopech's control is that it's sort of come and gone. It hasn't been good ever, but if you look month-by-month: April: 7.00 BB/9 May: 4.37 BB/9 June: 7.36 BB/9 I tweeted at some point last year a prediction that he'll lead the league in saves in 2020 or 2021 or something. I feel kind of vindicated by his performance this year - he's always been a future closer for me, and I think he'll be a good one. I just don't see the control to start, and think he'd be better off focusing on airing it out an inning at a time. This is why it drove me nuts when everyone was freaking out about his velocity last year and in the AFL (I'm not referring to this forum - I mean just generally). Throwing the ball harder doesn't mean you get a bigger strike zone. You think he ends up more like a Joe Kelly type or definite back of the bullpen kind of guy? Kopech is way more of a strikeout guy than Joe Kelly ever was. I'd compare him more to Betances. And on a related note, how did Betances get drafted in 2006 and not wind up in the majors full time until 2014 (all with the Yankees)? That's just nuts. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 7, 2017 14:36:59 GMT -5
You think he ends up more like a Joe Kelly type or definite back of the bullpen kind of guy? Kopech is way more of a strikeout guy than Joe Kelly ever was. I'd compare him more to Betances. And on a related note, how did Betances get drafted in 2006 and not wind up in the majors full time until 2014 (all with the Yankees)? That's just nuts. Along Betances travels he had Tommy John then when he finally made the majors in 2011 had command issues and was sent back to the minors and converted to reliever. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 7, 2017 21:27:40 GMT -5
Betances was the worst prominent pitching prospect I'd ever seen when he was in the minor leagues. I couldn't believe he was a prospect when I saw him. Baseball is crazy.
Kopech just clearly seems to be in the mold of those classic hard-throwing closers whose velocity made up for the fact that the command wasn't always perfect. Billy Wagner didn't always hit his spots, Aroldis Chapman doesn't either, but the fastball is so electric that the margin for error is there.
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Post by xycosis on Jul 8, 2017 10:21:24 GMT -5
Kopech is way more of a strikeout guy than Joe Kelly ever was. I'd compare him more to Betances. And on a related note, how did Betances get drafted in 2006 and not wind up in the majors full time until 2014 (all with the Yankees)? That's just nuts. Along Betances travels he had Tommy John then when he finally made the majors in 2011 had command issues and was sent back to the minors and converted to reliever. Betances never had Tommy John. He had a procedure to reinforce the ligament. It was incorrectly reported initially. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 8, 2017 11:39:46 GMT -5
Along Betances travels he had Tommy John then when he finally made the majors in 2011 had command issues and was sent back to the minors and converted to reliever. Betances never had Tommy John. He had a procedure to reinforce the ligament. It was incorrectly reported initially. lol, you made me look. He still missed a year then had a period of lesser command. |
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,305
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Post by radiohix on Jul 8, 2017 20:06:19 GMT -5
Honest question 'cause this is something I'm having difficulties to understand: Why is Eloy Jimenez ranked ahead of Devers in every single ranking?
They have the same age (Rafa is 20 y and 8 m while Eloy is 20 y and 7 m)
Devers is putting better numbers (154 wRC+) than Jimenez (131 wRC+) while playing at a higher level (A Advanced Vs Double A)
Devers is playing a way more valuable defensive position (3rd Base Vs Corner OF)
I just don't get it.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 8, 2017 21:46:25 GMT -5
Honest question 'cause this is something I'm having difficulties to understand: Why is Eloy Jimenez ranked ahead of Devers in every single ranking? They have the same age (Rafa is 20 y and 8 m while Eloy is 20 y and 7 m) Devers is putting better numbers (154 wRC+) than Jimenez (131 wRC+) while playing at a higher level (A Advanced Vs Double A) Devers is playing a way more valuable defensive position (3rd Base Vs Corner OF) I just don't get it. Baseball Prospectus has Devers three spots ahead of Jimenez and Baseball America put Jimenez only one spot ahead of him. |
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Post by ramireja on Jul 8, 2017 21:50:47 GMT -5
Honest question 'cause this is something I'm having difficulties to understand: Why is Eloy Jimenez ranked ahead of Devers in every single ranking? They have the same age (Rafa is 20 y and 8 m while Eloy is 20 y and 7 m) Devers is putting better numbers (154 wRC+) than Jimenez (131 wRC+) while playing at a higher level (A Advanced Vs Double A) Devers is playing a way more valuable defensive position (3rd Base Vs Corner OF) I just don't get it. I mean I think we should generally weight things toward the most recent sample, but if you go back even as recent as last year, Jimenez had a 162 wRC+, and Devers a 113 wRC+. Essentially they're on the same tier for most prospect sites and there is a decent enough of a case to like Jimenez that much. |
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 10, 2017 8:18:39 GMT -5
I like Devers more than Jimenez, I think it's important not to think of players as "types" at that level, but rather as an evaluation of the individual players themselves. A top hitting third baseman is more valuable than a top hitting left-fielder in general, but Barry Bonds was better than the third base version of Alex Rodriguez. Not because he was a more valuable type of player, but because he was just better.
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