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8/8-8/9 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by Guidas on Aug 9, 2017 6:36:53 GMT -5
Same with the 4-game series. And the 162 game schedule. And Interleague play with different rules. I'm fine with interleague. We play Toronto, NYY, Balt and TB like 19 times a year already. Does that number really need to go up? Sure, just make the DH optional. Then if someone wants thier pitcher to hit they're welcome to do so, while the other team uses the DH. "Tradition"(and stupidity) perserved for the NL while AL teams aren't penalized.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 9, 2017 7:35:34 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Aaron Judge continues to be very mortal in the second half. His strikeouts are up, his hard contact is down, and his BABIP is way way down. .330 / .448 / .701 ( 357 PA) on July 7. .184 / .345 / .356 (110 PA) since. (Successfully resisted urge to analyze why!) Instead, here's a nice breakdown.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 9, 2017 7:38:42 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Aaron Judge continues to be very mortal in the second half. His strikeouts are up, his hard contact is down, and his BABIP is way way down. Yeah - we knew that wasn't going to last, though. He's actually been decent since Sox-Yankees series that started the second half (a .242 Iso during a slump is pretty neat), but there's been a big BABIP correction. Power aside, a player really can't sustain a .300 average with those strikeout rates. It's kind of funny - the Yankees underachieved last year, sold (smartly) at the deadline, then went on a run that got them to 84 wins. This year they overachieved, bought, and the lineup has cratered - a .311 OBP in the second half so far. Not sure it will last, and that pitching staff is legit, but their lineup really doesn't have anything on Boston's. Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello are having weirdly similar seasons. Both have incredible K:BB numbers but are getting absolutely killed by the juiced ball. ----- Given Judge's crash back to earth, Altuve's the MVP at this point, right?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 9, 2017 8:44:24 GMT -5
OverTheMonster @overthemonster 1h1 hour ago
The Yankees are as close to the Orioles as they are to the Red Sox. The Rays are closer to last than first. Good Morning 😀
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Post by bluechip on Aug 9, 2017 9:56:13 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Aaron Judge continues to be very mortal in the second half. His strikeouts are up, his hard contact is down, and his BABIP is way way down. Yeah - we knew that wasn't going to last, though. He's actually been decent since Sox-Yankees series that started the second half (a .242 Iso during a slump is pretty neat), but there's been a big BABIP correction. Power aside, a player really can't sustain a .300 average with those strikeout rates. It's kind of funny - the Yankees underachieved last year, sold (smartly) at the deadline, then went on a run that got them to 84 wins. This year they overachieved, bought, and the lineup has cratered - a .311 OBP in the second half so far. Not sure it will last, and that pitching staff is legit, but their lineup really doesn't have anything on Boston's. Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello are having weirdly similar seasons. Both have incredible K:BB numbers but are getting absolutely killed by the juiced ball. ----- Given Judge's crash back to earth, Altuve's the MVP at this point, right? Judge has been a the embodiment of the three true outcomes since the all star break. Altuve would be my easy pick for MVP.
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Post by station13 on Aug 9, 2017 10:00:52 GMT -5
Sale would be my MVP pick. Altuve is having a great year, Sale is historic.
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Post by danredhawk on Aug 9, 2017 10:16:54 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Aaron Judge continues to be very mortal in the second half. His strikeouts are up, his hard contact is down, and his BABIP is way way down. Yeah - we knew that wasn't going to last, though. He's actually been decent since Sox-Yankees series that started the second half (a .242 Iso during a slump is pretty neat), but there's been a big BABIP correction. Power aside, a player really can't sustain a .300 average with those strikeout rates. It's kind of funny - the Yankees underachieved last year, sold (smartly) at the deadline, then went on a run that got them to 84 wins. This year they overachieved, bought, and the lineup has cratered - a .311 OBP in the second half so far. Not sure it will last, and that pitching staff is legit, but their lineup really doesn't have anything on Boston's. Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello are having weirdly similar seasons. Both have incredible K:BB numbers but are getting absolutely killed by the juiced ball. ----- Given Judge's crash back to earth, Altuve's the MVP at this point, right? Jul 19, 2017 16:06:27 GMT -6 danredhawk said: You know what I'm betting we WONT see from Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier, Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro, Matt Holiday, Brett Gardner, Didi Grigorious in the second half? Respective OPS' of 1.079, .944, .913, .842, .830, .823, .794 and .788...
---- Its almost like you could see this coming... Second half OPS', respectively - .699, .632, N/A, .760, .564, .362, .795 and .981...
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 9, 2017 11:20:09 GMT -5
Looking for a moderate scoring game tonight - 6-3 or so - in our favor!
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 9, 2017 11:52:10 GMT -5
Sale would be my MVP pick. Altuve is having a great year, Sale is historic. It definitely has to be a consideration. I read somewhere yesterday (tried to find link again, but failed) that Sale has now has the greatest K/BB ratio in MLB history. The previous leader pitched in the late 1800's. There still is some baseball left, but if things continue like they have, he'll likely get a lot of votes.
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Post by station13 on Aug 9, 2017 12:06:43 GMT -5
Hopefully Sale wins the MVP. It's a historic season. Altuve is winning the batting title, and what else?
Sale is leading in a lot of pitching categories. IP, FIP, ERA/ERA+, BB/9, K/9, K/BB. It's elite.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 9, 2017 12:17:54 GMT -5
Hopefully Sale wins the MVP. It's a historic season. Altuve is winning the batting title, and what else? Sale is leading in a lot of pitching categories. IP, FIP, ERA/ERA+, BB/9, K/9, K/BB. It's elite. Yeah. I should have clarified, career k/BB ration in MLB history. Irrelevant to 2017, but extremely impressive.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 9, 2017 12:35:00 GMT -5
It would be great if a Boston sports writer left Judge off the ballot and that enabled Sale to win the MVP. Payback for Pedro.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 9, 2017 12:40:12 GMT -5
OverTheMonster @overthemonster 1h1 hour ago The Yankees are as close to the Orioles as they are to the Red Sox. The Rays are closer to last than first. Good Morning 😀 The Orioles have actually climbed back into the Wild Card race in the last two weeks.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 9, 2017 12:44:57 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Aaron Judge continues to be very mortal in the second half. His strikeouts are up, his hard contact is down, and his BABIP is way way down. .330 / .448 / .701 ( 357 PA) on July 7. .184 / .345 / .356 (110 PA) since. (Successfully resisted urge to analyze why!) Instead, here's a nice breakdown. He is a sucker for high heat - and we've discussed in general here the effectiveness in general of fastballs over 93 MPH at the very top or just out of the top of the K zone, especially on the inner third. Almost impossible to get around on. This league is humbling and will adjust to everyone, no matter how good. Bonds in his prime may be the rare exception recently. I don't think participating in the HR derby does big swingers any favors, either, for whatever reason.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 9, 2017 12:47:26 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Aaron Judge continues to be very mortal in the second half. His strikeouts are up, his hard contact is down, and his BABIP is way way down. Yeah - we knew that wasn't going to last, though. He's actually been decent since Sox-Yankees series that started the second half (a .242 Iso during a slump is pretty neat), but there's been a big BABIP correction. Power aside, a player really can't sustain a .300 average with those strikeout rates. It's kind of funny - the Yankees underachieved last year, sold (smartly) at the deadline, then went on a run that got them to 84 wins. This year they overachieved, bought, and the lineup has cratered - a .311 OBP in the second half so far. Not sure it will last, and that pitching staff is legit, but their lineup really doesn't have anything on Boston's. Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello are having weirdly similar seasons. Both have incredible K:BB numbers but are getting absolutely killed by the juiced ball. ----- Given Judge's crash back to earth, Altuve's the MVP at this point, right? Altuve's always been the MVP, maybe. Judge has been walked intentionally 5 times in his 41 highest-leverage PA. In the other 36, he's hit .212 / .250 / .485. And that includes 4 GDP; his effective OBP is .139. He's had 110 PA from the 8th inning on and has hit .196 / .327 / .304. He's 16th in the AL in Win Probabilty Added, right behind the Twins' Robbie Grossman.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 9, 2017 12:54:41 GMT -5
Yeah - we knew that wasn't going to last, though. He's actually been decent since Sox-Yankees series that started the second half (a .242 Iso during a slump is pretty neat), but there's been a big BABIP correction. Power aside, a player really can't sustain a .300 average with those strikeout rates. It's kind of funny - the Yankees underachieved last year, sold (smartly) at the deadline, then went on a run that got them to 84 wins. This year they overachieved, bought, and the lineup has cratered - a .311 OBP in the second half so far. Not sure it will last, and that pitching staff is legit, but their lineup really doesn't have anything on Boston's. Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello are having weirdly similar seasons. Both have incredible K:BB numbers but are getting absolutely killed by the juiced ball. ----- Given Judge's crash back to earth, Altuve's the MVP at this point, right? Altuve's always been the MVP, maybe. Judge has been walked intentionally 5 times in his 41 highest-leverage PA. In the other 36, he's hit .212 / .250 / .485. And that includes 4 GDP; his effective OBP is .139. He's had 110 PA from the 8th inning on and has hit .196 / .327 / .304. He's 16th in the AL in Win Probabilty Added, right behind the Twins' Robbie Grossman. Interesting. I tend not to like WPA for MVP, unless someone is trying to make an Eckersley-in-1990 argument where his leverage was so disproportionate that it beats away overall value. I'd have to go through and figure out how many games Judge was batting in low-leverage situations in late innings because he'd been so dominant earlier on. I should have mentioned it earlier, but I wonder if Trout can get back in the mix even with missing 40 games with his injury. He's clearly the best player on a per-AB basis, which could lead to the most interesting total value vs. per-game value MVP discussion since Bonds (historically absurd in 130 games) vs. Pujols (more standard-level absurd in 157 games) in 2003.
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Post by doctorduck21 on Aug 9, 2017 13:02:21 GMT -5
Altuve's always been the MVP, maybe. Judge has been walked intentionally 5 times in his 41 highest-leverage PA. In the other 36, he's hit .212 / .250 / .485. And that includes 4 GDP; his effective OBP is .139. He's had 110 PA from the 8th inning on and has hit .196 / .327 / .304. He's 16th in the AL in Win Probabilty Added, right behind the Twins' Robbie Grossman. Interesting. I tend not to like WPA for MVP, unless someone is trying to make an Eckersley-in-1990 argument where his leverage was so disproportionate that it beats away overall value. I'd have to go through and figure out how many games Judge was batting in low-leverage situations in late innings because he'd been so dominant earlier on. I should have mentioned it earlier, but I wonder if Trout can get back in the mix even with missing 40 games with his injury. He's clearly the best player on a per-AB basis, which could lead to the most interesting total value vs. per-game value MVP discussion since Bonds (historically absurd in 130 games) vs. Pujols (more standard-level absurd in 157 games) in 2003. I think Trout can get back in it. However that depends on if he keeps up his current pace and the Angels make the wild card game. If they fall out of it, bad team plus missing time might be too much to overcome in the voter's mind
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 9, 2017 14:11:17 GMT -5
I'm fine with interleague. We play Toronto, NYY, Balt and TB like 19 times a year already. Does that number really need to go up? Sure, just make the DH optional. Then if someone wants thier pitcher to hit they're welcome to do so, while the other team uses the DH. "Tradition"(and stupidity) perserved for the NL while AL teams aren't penalized. I already see the Rays and Jays 2-3 times every year in my Ticket Packs, I would much rather see new teams than the same ones over and over again. The Jays have been a cool team recently but theyre going to go back to sucking again soon and same goes for Balt.
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Post by natesp4 on Aug 9, 2017 14:32:46 GMT -5
Altuve's always been the MVP, maybe. Judge has been walked intentionally 5 times in his 41 highest-leverage PA. In the other 36, he's hit .212 / .250 / .485. And that includes 4 GDP; his effective OBP is .139. He's had 110 PA from the 8th inning on and has hit .196 / .327 / .304. He's 16th in the AL in Win Probabilty Added, right behind the Twins' Robbie Grossman. Interesting. I tend not to like WPA for MVP, unless someone is trying to make an Eckersley-in-1990 argument where his leverage was so disproportionate that it beats away overall value. I'd have to go through and figure out how many games Judge was batting in low-leverage situations in late innings because he'd been so dominant earlier on. I should have mentioned it earlier, but I wonder if Trout can get back in the mix even with missing 40 games with his injury. He's clearly the best player on a per-AB basis, which could lead to the most interesting total value vs. per-game value MVP discussion since Bonds (historically absurd in 130 games) vs. Pujols (more standard-level absurd in 157 games) in 2003. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-mike-trout-mvp-precedent/Lucky for us, Fangraphs already discussed this in depth. It looks like a very real chance it could happen. Although Chris Sale might ruin this scenario by casually tossing up 10 WAR.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 9, 2017 14:40:13 GMT -5
Well isn't that some timing. Love it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Aug 9, 2017 14:49:04 GMT -5
Lineup out. I don't know the order but Devers is out, Pedrioa is out, Hanley is in at DH. I imagine Holt is in at 2B and Nunez is in at 3B.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 9, 2017 15:07:50 GMT -5
Would it surprise anyone if Holt is leadoff again?
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Post by swooptech on Aug 9, 2017 15:33:23 GMT -5
Would it surprise anyone if Holt is leadoff again? Holt 7th, fortunately. Eduardo Nunez, 3B Andrew Benintendi, LF Mookie Betts, RF Hanley Ramirez, DH Mitch Moreland, 1B Xander Bogaerts, SS Brock Holt, 2B Sandy Leon, C Jackie Bradley Jr., CF
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Post by Guidas on Aug 9, 2017 15:54:09 GMT -5
Sure, just make the DH optional. Then if someone wants thier pitcher to hit they're welcome to do so, while the other team uses the DH. "Tradition"(and stupidity) perserved for the NL while AL teams aren't penalized. I already see the Rays and Jays 2-3 times every year in my Ticket Packs, I would much rather see new teams than the same ones over and over again. The Jays have been a cool team recently but theyre going to go back to sucking again soon and same goes for Balt. Agree. I just want the same rules. Like I said, if you make the DH optional before every game, the NL "purists" will have nothing to complain about, except maybe their team deciding, "OK, maybe I won't bat my pitcher today..."
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 9, 2017 16:09:30 GMT -5
I mean I saw a fantastic Sale-Rays game earlier in the year and I can deal with 19 and get the divisional argument but ive always liked interleague. As a fan it gives you the opportunity to see more of new teams or potentially travel to new parks to see the Sox.
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