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9/28-10/1 Red Sox vs. Astros Series Thread
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Post by jchang on Oct 1, 2017 15:20:03 GMT -5
Not sure if it was intentional but the 4 pitch walk to Gonzalez was smart in not getting into another 14 pitch battle
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 1, 2017 16:00:04 GMT -5
The Twins have a 0% chance of beating the Yankees. By the numbers: Santana starting wild-card game gives Yankees upper hand ... The numbers are clearly against the Twins and Santana on Tuesday, so Minnesota better hope for a miracle if it expects to move into the division series. Batter vs. pitcher matchup numbers, in isolation and taken out of context, have essentially no predictive value. You have to first look at them relative to how a player's teammates did in the same game. Often a guy who seems to own an opposing pitcher or be owned by him in, say, a dozen PA, is just a guy who happened to face him on the pitcher's bad or extra good days. You also want to look as much or more at hardness of contact rather than straight results. In small samples, swinging bunts and line drive outs can really distort the numbers. But even when you control for these things, the numbers are of limited use until you get to at least 30-35 PA. They can be very useful if you lump similar pitchers and similar hitters together and see what sorts of hitters and pitchers the player likes or doesn't like. You can project a guy against a pitcher he's never faced better than a guy he's faced 30 times, if the first guy fits a type really well and the second doesn't. Back when I did lineup advice, I used pitcher type almost exclusively, and only looked at individual matchups (with the two refinements) as a tiebreaker or to clinch an existing case, when I was already leaning in that direction.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 1, 2017 16:22:14 GMT -5
Workman had a few hard hit balls today (one should have been caught). Thinking may or may not make the playoff roster.
Abad had abad outing, thinking he was not on it anyway - today (hopefully) seals it.
Barnes was typically Barnes - OK, not totally with control.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 1, 2017 16:35:23 GMT -5
Ya, Workman hasn't been good for about a month now.
I'd put Porcello on the playoff roster over him in case the Sox need innings.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 1, 2017 16:52:22 GMT -5
It would be so sweet to see CVaz take one deep. Not that it matters...but of course it does! It's the Red Sox! (still stinging from the horrendous defensive so-called performance of the Pats earlier)
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 1, 2017 16:57:40 GMT -5
Ya, Workman hasn't been good for about a month now. I'd put Porcello on the playoff roster over him in case the Sox need innings. If there was any question about the pitching roster, it ended today. Wokman very bad again, Barnes fanning four, including the side on 12 pitches. Porcello is an obvious last guy. I'll repeat again the thought or claim that two innings each of Price, Kelly, and Barnes project to be one of the very best 6-inning pitching efforts on any post-season roster. A lot of that is that you're forcing opposing hitters to see a different guy every PA. Their combined numbers won't best Kluber, Keuchel, etc.'s numbers the first time around the order, but are right in the ballpark, if not better, vs. overall.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Oct 1, 2017 19:46:12 GMT -5
World Series game 7 will be in Phoenix, Bos at Az. Arizona caught up to Sox today for homefield
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Post by Guidas on Oct 1, 2017 20:50:40 GMT -5
World Series game 7 will be in Phoenix, Bos at Az. Arizona caught up to Sox today for homefield Actually, AL won home field im All Star game somit’s ours. Unless they changed the rulle again.
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Post by swingingbunt on Oct 1, 2017 20:58:03 GMT -5
World Series game 7 will be in Phoenix, Bos at Az. Arizona caught up to Sox today for homefield Actually, AL won home field im All Star game somit’s ours. Unless they changed the rulle again. It changed again. Here is the order: 1. Dodgers (NL) 104-58 2. Indians (AL) 102-60 3. Astros (AL) 101-61 4. Nationals (NL) 97-65 5. D-backs (NL) 93-69 (wins tiebreaker vs. BOS by virtue of better intradivision record, 45-31 to 41-35) 6. Red Sox (AL) 93-69 7. Cubs (NL) 92-70 8. Yankees (AL) 91-71 9. Rockies (NL) 87-75 10. Twins (AL) 85-77
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 1, 2017 22:39:28 GMT -5
So how f'd up is this in actuality? Here's the actual strength of schedules, now with final figures. Actually, AL won home field im All Star game somit’s ours. Unless they changed the rulle again. It changed again. Here is the order: 1. Dodgers (NL) 104-58, but the Indians' schedule was 3.2 games tougher, and the Astros 4.2.2. Indians (AL) 102-60 3. Astros (AL) 101-61 4. Nationals (NL) 97-65, but the Red Sox' schedule was 7.2 games tougher and the Yankees 7.0. 5. D-backs (NL) 93-69 wins tiebreaker vs. BOS, but the Red Sox schedule was 4.6 games tougher and the Yankees 4.4.
6. Red Sox (AL) 93-69 7. Cubs (NL) 92-70, but the Yankees schedule was 4.9 games tougher.8. Yankees (AL) 91-71 9. Rockies (NL) 87-75, but the Twins' schedule was 3.0 games tougher.10. Twins (AL) 85-77 So the fair seeding is: 103.0 Indians (2) 103.0 Astros (3) 101.8 Dodgers (1) 96.0 Red Sox (6) 93.8 Yankees (8) 92.8 Nationals (4) 91.4 Diamondbacks (5) 89.9 Cubs (7) 86.3 Twins (10) 85.3 Rockies (9) It's a ludicrously, severely f-ed system that badly needs to be changed. You need a formula that includes interleague and division win percentages.
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Post by h11233 on Oct 2, 2017 17:43:34 GMT -5
It's a ludicrously, severely f-ed system that badly needs to be changed. You need a formula that includes interleague and division win percentages. At some point don't you just have to say win the games you play? At least it's not like the NFL where an 11-5 wild card team concedes home field to a 9-7 division winner
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 3, 2017 1:15:20 GMT -5
It's a ludicrously, severely f-ed system that badly needs to be changed. You need a formula that includes interleague and division win percentages. At some point don't you just have to say win the games you play? At least it's not like the NFL where an 11-5 wild card team concedes home field to a 9-7 division winner Just because the NFL lives with its unfairness doesn't mean MLB has to. And MLB used to have a balanced schedule where, if you won more games, it actually meant you were better. But now we're deciding home field advantage for the World Championship where the average AL team played a schedule 4.5 games tougher than the average NL team, and the average AL East team played one 6.7 games tougher than the average NL East team, highlighted by the Orioles' schedule being 7.2 tougher than the Nationals. Those are huge gaps. At least this year the 10 best teams in MLB are in the playoffs. That's the first time that's happened since I've been doing the adjusted schedule -- last year, for instance, 7 of the best 10 clubs in MLB were in the AL. This year the strength disparity is in the bottom half of the standings, what used to be called the second division. The top 14 clubs are 7 from each league, but the 13th best AL club, the A's, was better than the 8th best NL club, the Marlins. And 8 of the 10 worst clubs were in the NL. BTW, I also think the draft order should reflect strength of schedule, and in fact, that's considerably more important. The White Sox will be picking 4th, but the Mets, Reds and Braves were actually all worse, having played schedules that were basically 5, 3, and 6 wins easier, respectively. You perpetuate the league imbalance by having them pick in reverse order of unadjusted wins.
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