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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 23, 2018 11:46:10 GMT -5
I might be willing to trade Velazquez, Johnson, or Beeks, but A. It has to be worth it. B. Not more than one of them. C. I would really rather not. I think A goes without saying. As far as B goes, I'd be surprised if it was more than one of them. As far as C goes, if it helps the Sox get a lockdown 8th inning guy, you're most likely going to have to surrender one of them. Say Zack Britton comes back healthy and looks almost as effective as he was when his numbers were ridiculous, the Red Sox would have to look into trying to acquire him, and the O's would be crazy not to want either Beeks or Poyner. I don't really see the Sox dealing away Velazquez or Johnson because with Pomeranz as a free agent, Johnson, along with Wright would definitely be vying for a spot in the 2019 rotation as the Sox would have to fill Pomeranz's spot without spending big $. Plus the Sox need starting pitching depth so dealing away Velazquez or Johnson without getting a viable AAA guy with options doesn't really make much sense. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of Hembree or Barnes along with one of Poyner or Beeks and a lower minor league relief arm get dealt for a closer caliber reliever who can be the go-to guy in the 8th inning. Then again maybe it winds up being Swihart instead of the lefties that gets dealt, not that I like it, but it's a possibility. If Smith or even Thornburg assert themselves then maybe the Sox don't make that kind of a deal, but if there's a dominant lefty in the pen to be had, the Sox might go for a deal. Otherwise the question is can Poyner or Beeks be an impact lefty out of the pen you can trust in high leverage situations? I'm not really buying the "We don't need a [highly effective] lefty in the pen" stuff, and I'm not really talking a LOOGY here) I have little doubt that at least one of Poyner or Beeks will be a mainstay lefty in the 2019 Red Sox bullpen. Poyner has pretty good command and Beeks is opening eyes with his Ks.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 23, 2018 11:55:16 GMT -5
In my previous post I talked about Beeks as being a potential lefty out of the pen for the Sox if not traded.
But am I selling him short?
Is he somebody that would be heavily into the competition to be a pitcher who replaces Pomeranz if he departs? I've been talking about him as a reliever, but does he have more than #4/#5 type starting pitching potential?
If not and he profiles more realistically as a reliever, if the Sox had to deal either Poyner or Beeks, which one would you want the Sox to keep?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 23, 2018 20:28:03 GMT -5
I might be willing to trade Velazquez, Johnson, or Beeks, but A. It has to be worth it. B. Not more than one of them. C. I would really rather not. I think A goes without saying. As far as B goes, I'd be surprised if it was more than one of them. As far as C goes, if it helps the Sox get a lockdown 8th inning guy, you're most likely going to have to surrender one of them. Say Zack Britton comes back healthy and looks almost as effective as he was when his numbers were ridiculous, the Red Sox would have to look into trying to acquire him, and the O's would be crazy not to want either Beeks or Poyner. I don't really see the Sox dealing away Velazquez or Johnson because with Pomeranz as a free agent, Johnson, along with Wright would definitely be vying for a spot in the 2019 rotation as the Sox would have to fill Pomeranz's spot without spending big $. Plus the Sox need starting pitching depth so dealing away Velazquez or Johnson without getting a viable AAA guy with options doesn't really make much sense. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of Hembree or Barnes along with one of Poyner or Beeks and a lower minor league relief arm get dealt for a closer caliber reliever who can be the go-to guy in the 8th inning. Then again maybe it winds up being Swihart instead of the lefties that gets dealt, not that I like it, but it's a possibility. If Smith or even Thornburg assert themselves then maybe the Sox don't make that kind of a deal, but if there's a dominant lefty in the pen to be had, the Sox might go for a deal. Otherwise the question is can Poyner or Beeks be an impact lefty out of the pen you can trust in high leverage situations? I'm not really buying the "We don't need a [highly effective] lefty in the pen" stuff, and I'm not really talking a LOOGY here) I have little doubt that at least one of Poyner or Beeks will be a mainstay lefty in the 2019 Red Sox bullpen. Poyner has pretty good command and Beeks is opening eyes with his Ks. If the Sox trade for Britton, the O's would most likely want a position player. I could see something like Velazquez+Batting Prospect for Britton+Pitching Prospect happening, and I would not rate that trade until we see how the players do.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 29, 2018 16:59:01 GMT -5
Jalen Beeks, at worst, is our number 8 prospect. May 1 is 2 days away. Patience, grasshopper. Lol I use that “Kung Fu” quote all the time, and I’m eternally grateful to the universe for the Kill Bills. But I still get a twinge of awkward every time I think of David Carradine and how, exactly, he checked out. Also, Idk how Beeks is keeping this up. He’s had some bad BABIP luck (see 30% LD rate), too. I’ve gotta get down to Pawtucket and see exactly how he’s doing it. I mean, his velo is fine for a LHSP, might even be above-average. But for these whiff rates...I’d think he’d need at least one plus-plus (70 or better) pitch and maybe another 60+ grade pitch. Maybe he’s got a Pomeranz-like spin rate or something and it tunnels well with the CB, but the guy is getting Ks by the bushel and it’s been happening since he added the cutter. But this is a whole new level. And it’s not like he’s 6’11” and his 92-93 plays up to look 95-96 from extension. He’s on the shorter side. I'm **dying** to have some sort of explanation. And given the TTO trend in MLB, I’ve gotta wonder if it’ll actually keep up (obviously not at a ludicrous 16/9 rate, but maybe 10.5 or so?). And what about a bullpen role if there’s no starting spot? Or would they move Pomeranz at the deadline if Beeks kept something close to this up (say, sub-2 ERA with similar FIP/xFIP and 13K/9 and a BB/9 under 3, through mid-June)? I mean, it’s tough to imagine moving an established starter mid-season while contending, but he’s gone at the end of the year and if Beeks looks like the real deal...idk, especially if Porcello continues his path and Rodriguez is healthy? This kid looks MLB-ready and waiting.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 30, 2018 14:22:43 GMT -5
Has there been any explanation about how Beeks has been getting these insane results? Who has seen him? What is he doing differently? I didn't see much to get excited about in the few times I saw him in spring training, but I'm getting there now.
And ha, that's almost the same question that telson asked in the post above...
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Post by ramireja on Apr 30, 2018 23:54:23 GMT -5
I think its worth continuing some of this conversation in the Beeks thread. He's had a phenomenal start to the year and if anyone has watched him pitch and can answer telson or jimed's questions above, please share.
The season is young but his 17.0% Swinging Strike Rate leads the International League for qualified pitchers and currently sits above other notables Michael Kopech (13.1%) and Nick Kingham (12.9%) who almost just threw a perfect game for the Pirates.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 30, 2018 23:58:47 GMT -5
...and for what its worth, this Masslive article from last year had some nice insights from Brian Bannister about changes that Beeks made which helped facilitate his breakout season between AA and AAA. I would imagine this is still relevant, but like Telson, I do wonder if any of his secondaries are currently considered plus, or if he's just doing an excellent job of mixing a variety of average to above-average pitches.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 1, 2018 0:19:48 GMT -5
Like I mentioned in the other thread Jalen Beeks could force his way into the bullpen as a late lefty option if he keeps dominating AAA as he has.
And for 2019 he could take Drew Pomeranz' spot if Pomeranz isn't signed, and given what Velazquez has looked like, the fact that Wright is coming back, that Johnson is out of options, and Beeks is making a name for himself there could be a lot of competition for that open spot.
Now I'm getting more hesitant about including Beeks in any sort of reliever rental deal. I'll be curious to see how much of this he can continue. It's certainly eye opening.
I don't know much about him other than he's kind of a studious guy and he now has ridiculous K/9 rates.
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Post by jimed14 on May 1, 2018 8:59:02 GMT -5
It must be hard for sports writers to come up with something new and interesting to write about every day. With that in mind, how freaking hard would it be for someone to talk to Bannister and Boles and find out why Beeks is pitching like he's Randy Johnson in AAA? Arrrgh.
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Post by telson13 on May 1, 2018 10:08:30 GMT -5
It must be hard for sports writers to come up with something new and interesting to write about every day. With that in mind, how freaking hard would it be for someone to talk to Bannister and Boles and find out why Beeks is pitching like he's Randy Johnson in AAA? Arrrgh. Right? I mean, I don’t expect Cafardo (lol) or Abraham, but this is Alex Speier’s wheelhouse!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 1, 2018 10:32:31 GMT -5
Like I mentioned in the other thread Jalen Beeks could force his way into the bullpen as a late lefty option if he keeps dominating AAA as he has. He actually is probably the top option for spot starts now, and that's more concrete the longer Johnson and Velazquez spend in the bullpen. He probably has way more value in that role given that Poyner, Scott, and Jerez are all throwing well in Pawtucket as LHRP options.
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Post by Guidas on May 1, 2018 12:16:59 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 1, 2018 12:58:07 GMT -5
Like I mentioned in the other thread Jalen Beeks could force his way into the bullpen as a late lefty option if he keeps dominating AAA as he has. He actually is probably the top option for spot starts now, and that's more concrete the longer Johnson and Velazquez spend in the bullpen. He probably has way more value in that role given that Poyner, Scott, and Jerez are all throwing well in Pawtucket as LHRP options. Makes sense. But I think as time goes on Velazquez will still be a top candidate for spot starts as I do believe despite how well he's pitching (and I feel so oddly comfortable when he's pitching) he'll eventually wind up in AAA before finishing the season with the Sox. And by that time - later in the year as the innings start to pile up for Beeks, then he could become a guy who could (outside chance) become a high leverage lefty for the pen. I say this because I'm looking at what the Sox have now and soon. We're talking Sale/Price/Porcello/E-Rod/Pomeranz as the five guys for the rotation. Then we're talking Kimbrel/Thornburg/Smith/Barnes/Kelly/Hembree/Wright/Johnson/Velazquez. That's potentially 14 guys for 12 spots if all is healthy. Odds are all won't be healthy, but if they're looking at who's the first to go it usually comes down to who has options left. On that list, they could option Barnes and Velazquez. Correct me if I'm wrong, but they risk losing the others if they try to option them. Seems to me that when Thornburg comes back, Velazquez gets optioned and when Wright comes back - they'll have to decide between Wright and Johnson. I know there are some here who say, well Wright hasn't done anything in two years, yet others here still think there's a potential all-star in Blake Swihart who really hasn't play in an even longer time. Wright's ceiling as that of a guy who can be an all-star - a guy who can soak up innings and go deep in games. I haven't forgotten those complete games he was tossing. I don't think Johnson has that ceiling and even though I like him, he's definitely more of a backend starter. They'll need somebody between Beeks, Wright, Johnson, and Velazquez to ultimately replace Pomeranz and perhaps Porcello a year later. So unless there are injuries there's going to be a roster crunch and I believe Velazquez gets caught in it, which will allow him to stretch back out and be a depth starter later on in the year or piggyback reliever if a reliever gets injured, and I think that will allow Beeks to be a reliever later in the year if the Sox do thin out their abundance of pitchers in a deal. What's amazing, with that list I already gave, there are other good options at AAA like Beeks, Poyner, and even Workman. I definitely like the pitching depth the Sox have built up. Hope they can find a way to keep it (without another pitcher having a serious injury).
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Post by jimed14 on May 1, 2018 13:07:37 GMT -5
So it's the cutter he added along with meticulous study and preparation. Sounds great! And to redsoxfan040713, at some point Beeks is going to leap ahead of everyone if he remains this dominant. Regardless of who is in front of him. I already had the thought of dropping Pomeranz to the bullpen. I'm sure they'll keep patient with him, but that velocity drop is quite concerning. At some point, one of Velazquez, Johnson, Wright or Beeks is going to be a better rotation option even without an injury.
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Post by James Dunne on May 1, 2018 13:24:36 GMT -5
Drew Pomeranz was one of the 50 best pitchers in baseball in 2016-17. It's very possible that none of those pitchers will ever, at any point in their lives, be better than him, but still be good enough to be in a major league rotation.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on May 1, 2018 13:38:12 GMT -5
You look at his stats and they're straight up crazy! 45.1% K rate? That tops of the International League (11% more than Kopech for example) 37.8 K-BB% ? leads the IL by a confortable margin too. But what I'm finding as the most interesting stat of them all is his progression: In A Ball his K% was 16.2% In Advanced A, the K% jumped to 19% In AA, he started to reach the very good territories with a K% that increased to 23% (2 parts of the season) In AAA that K% jumped to elite levels at 27.6% and trending up! He's like the reverse Matt Barnes who saw his strikeout numbers decrease everytime he jumped to a higher level. I mean you're supposed to face a tougher competition when you jump to the next level with more seasoned hitters that will chase less and make contact more, not the other way around! Jalen Christopher Beeks, I don't know how you're doing it but keep doing it please.
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Post by jimed14 on May 1, 2018 13:41:41 GMT -5
Drew Pomeranz was one of the 50 best pitchers in baseball in 2016-17. It's very possible that none of those pitchers will ever, at any point in their lives, be better than him, but still be good enough to be in a major league rotation. It’s also possible that he needs TJS next week which would surprise no one given his struggle to even hit 90 this year when he was reaching 94 last year. Maybe I’m wrong, I hope so. But I have to imagine there’s a shorter leash than usual because of all the options ready for his spot.
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Post by James Dunne on May 1, 2018 13:52:26 GMT -5
Right, but then he's hurt. I'm disagreeing (strongly) with the "even without an injury" part of the point. If Pomeranz is healthy then he's a better pitcher than the 6-through-10 guys.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 1, 2018 14:41:01 GMT -5
Agree. But the Sox also have to plan for beyond this year, and I don't mean strengthening the farm system (although that would be cool too). Pomeranz is a FA, Price could opt out, Sale is a year from FA. Wright, Velazquez, Beeks, and Johnson could all be 4th/5th starters.
Best case, Sale is resigned, Price doesn't opt out, Porcello resigns, ERod, and (for me, anyway) Velazquez are next year's starters, and they let Pom walk. In this case, perhaps they trade wright or Pomeranz this year for a prospect haul. There's too much depth there to not trade someone, assuming everyone is healthy. The key is to determine who to trade and who to keep and to resign.
To bring it back to Beeks, whether a starter or high leverage reliever, he's (relatively) cheap for many years. I have to think he sticks around.
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Post by Guidas on May 1, 2018 14:54:40 GMT -5
Drew Pomeranz was one of the 50 best pitchers in baseball in 2016-17. It's very possible that none of those pitchers will ever, at any point in their lives, be better than him, but still be good enough to be in a major league rotation. It’s also possible that he needs TJS next week which would surprise no one given his struggle to even hit 90 this year when he was reaching 94 last year. Maybe I’m wrong, I hope so. But I have to imagine there’s a shorter leash than usual because of all the options ready for his spot. At the very least, given how much time he missed in Spring Training, he’s a great candidate for a 10 day “dead arm” rehab stint.
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Post by GyIantosca on May 1, 2018 15:40:55 GMT -5
I tell you it would be nice to slot Beeks in place of Porcello when his deal is up after next season. I think were stuck with Price. Sale is gonna get the big money and Pomeranz and Porcello are probably not gonna be signed. You need Porcello's 20 million to help sign Sale. I take it he gonna cost at least Price money.
Wow what a break it would be for the FO if Beeks pans out. I cant believe he is not ranked at all.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 2, 2018 6:22:58 GMT -5
How sustainable is a 45% K rate? LOL
Love seeing a prospect who took years to even become top 20 here at SP let alone make any top 100 list just blow it up. What if this is the new him? Finds a new pitch and works his butt off working and studying so that he becomes a true ace. I know, hyperbole but what if he is a #2 or even a 3 ?
What is his upside now? Flash in the pan more likely than a #4?
What a gift for the Sox. He has trended this way and the ss is growing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 2, 2018 11:09:30 GMT -5
How sustainable is a 45% K rate? LOL Love seeing a prospect who took years to even become top 20 here at SP let alone make any top 100 list just blow it up. What if this is the new him? Finds a new pitch and works his butt off working and studying so that he becomes a true ace. I know, hyperbole but what if he is a #2 or even a 3 ? What is his upside now? Flash in the pan more likely than a #4? What a gift for the Sox. He has trended this way and the ss is growing. FWIW, there is no case in which I would change my opinion of a player's upside based on a one-month sample of stats. Might be different if we see him in person and there's some very obvious reason why he's dominating, but as you mention, this is clearly unsustainable no matter what the reason is.
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Post by ramireja on May 2, 2018 12:45:03 GMT -5
How sustainable is a 45% K rate? LOL Love seeing a prospect who took years to even become top 20 here at SP let alone make any top 100 list just blow it up. What if this is the new him? Finds a new pitch and works his butt off working and studying so that he becomes a true ace. I know, hyperbole but what if he is a #2 or even a 3 ? What is his upside now? Flash in the pan more likely than a #4? What a gift for the Sox. He has trended this way and the ss is growing. FWIW, there is no case in which I would change my opinion of a player's upside based on a one-month sample of stats. Might be different if we see him in person and there's some very obvious reason why he's dominating, but as you mention, this is clearly unsustainable no matter what the reason is. I certainly agree that the K-rate is unsustainable, and that any one month's data should be taken with a grain of salt. BUT...just to make an admittedly optimistic case that perhaps there is #3 starter upside: His breakout season was really last year, and the 2017 data seemed to paint a portrait of a pitcher w/ decent upside worthy of a top 5-7 prospect ranking in the system. If you're like me, you wanted to see a nice follow-up to a season like Beeks' 2017 to truly start believing. Yes, Beeks is only 4 starts into this season, but it couldn't be a better start, and is such a good start in fact, that it at least confirms to me that last year's success was no fluke. Just to highlight some of his breakout from last year: In AA last year, his K-rate of 28.7% ranked 8th in the Eastern league among pitchers w/ 40+ innings. Notably, 5 of the 7 ranked ahead of him pitched in relief, and 5 of the 7 ahead of him were 24 or older. Note, the two starters ranked ahead of him were the two pitchers younger than 23 (Beeks was 23). In AAA last year, his K-rate of 24.1% ranked 8th (again) in the International league among pitchers w/ 90+ innings. Although with a 90 inning cutoff, the guys ranked ahead of him were all starters. That said, this list includes a number of former top 100 prospects and guys making contributions to the majors this year: Glasnow, Honeywell, Lucas Sims, Reynaldo Lopez, Ryan Yarbrough, Caleb Smith, and Lucas Giolito. This is all to say, Beeks put himself in some pretty interesting company last year and you could have made the case for #3 upside (maybe #4/#5 starter middle projection) based on that year. I myself would have been somewhat skeptical based on his prior seasons and relative lack of draft pedigree. That said, his start to this year seems to strengthen the argument that you could have made after last year. Personally, I'm a believer in his ability to miss bats but I do wonder a little bit about his efficiency and ability to frequently pitch 6 innings per start. He still seems like a backend starter to me or a potential relief weapon, which isn't meant to diminish any excitement about him....I think those are great outcomes.
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Post by ramireja on May 3, 2018 15:43:12 GMT -5
It's not much but...
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