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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,274
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Post by radiohix on May 4, 2018 16:46:52 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on May 5, 2018 14:56:49 GMT -5
One thing about the Beeks performance is that the probability that he can pitch relief in high leverage (7th and 8th) in this year's second half is very, very high. Hitters have trouble with unfamiliar pitchers in general. For some reason this is particularly true for opposite-handed hitters; platoon splits tend to equalize or even reverse, short-term.
All winter I identified a LHR who could pitch in the 7th and optimally the 8th as one of the roster spots that was unfilled, and it remained the only one that was left that way.
The odds of our needing to trade from a thin system to acquire an 8th inning guy (and ideally a LHR) have gone way, way down. If I had to pick a guy for the 8th inning down the stretch run right now, he'd get my most likely vote (plurality odds, not majority) from among a large group of candidates (other being Barnes, Kelly, Thornburg, Smith). The only thing that would change that is if it turns out that the crazy start is due to a fluke and unrepeatable run of plus command (which is definitely a possibility).
Dreams on his rotation potential are best left deferred until he's had three or four months in the Pawtucket rotation.
Interesting info: EqA allowed (estimated from OBP and SA) the last three years by handedness (RHB, LHB):
2016: .283 / .269 2017: .235 / .253 2018: .212 / .148
Vs. RHB he improved by 17%, and now 10% more. Vs. LHB, by just 6%, now 42% more. He's really dominating LHB this year (likelier to be a SSS fluke, though).
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Post by voiceofreason on May 5, 2018 17:48:33 GMT -5
I think 155 K's in 121 innings last year and the rest of his numbers from last year can be looked at when thinking about ss. The coming out party started a year ago.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,274
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Post by radiohix on May 8, 2018 7:57:16 GMT -5
Looking at his Fangraphs page is quite a treat... really! I mean dude's lead the International League in many predictive categories: K%,K-BB%,xFIP.. He's also the pitcher against whom AAA hitters swung and came out empty the most (his 16.1% SwStr% tops in the IL), he's also 5th in generating Pop-ups at 31.3%). He's been fantastically good!
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Post by ematz1423 on May 8, 2018 9:14:30 GMT -5
I am loving what Beeks is doing in the last year through now. Ideally he could be ready to come up at some point in the next year or so and slide into the rotation during the 2019 season for Pomeranz. The Sox sure could use another controllable rotation piece to help keep the payroll at a manageable level.
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Post by Addam603 on May 16, 2018 13:50:04 GMT -5
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,274
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Post by radiohix on May 17, 2018 17:24:17 GMT -5
From Fangraphs' prospects chat:
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 19, 2018 2:32:10 GMT -5
Beeks' splits by times around the order. Last 3 columns are BABIP for GB, FB, LD. TBF BA OBP SA Ks% Kc% BB% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB LD% BABIP B-G B-F B-L 1st 63 .228 .286 .368 .270 .143 .063 .290 .419 .308 .154 .290 .367 .222 .000 1.000 2nd 62 .111 .213 .241 .274 .145 .097 .357 .464 .231 .077 .179 .185 .000 .167 .600 3rd 25 .280 .280 .320 .240 .040 .000 .444 .389 .143 .000 .167 .389 .375 .286 .667 Tot 150 .191 .255 .309 .267 .127 .067 .351 .429 .242 .091 .221 .307 .185 .133 .824 AAA leaders in xFIP, qualifiers, ages 24 and younger:
3.42 Cole Irvin (Phi) 3.40 Yefry Ramirez (Bal) 3.29 Anthony Banda (TB) 3.22 Enyel De Los Santos (Phi) 2.09 Jalen Beeks
There are 32 of these guys. The gap between Beeks and the runner-up is larger than the gap between him and the #20 guy. If you exclude him as an outlier (and you should), he's 3.4 standard deviations better than average. (Even if you include him, he's 2.9.)
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on May 19, 2018 3:37:41 GMT -5
From Fangraphs' prospects chat: Interested to see data on what this Carson is saying, as far as his strikeouts being of the non swing and miss variety and that not correlating to the majors?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 19, 2018 6:07:54 GMT -5
From Fangraphs' prospects chat: Interested to see data on what this Carson is saying, as far as his strikeouts being of the non swing and miss variety and that not correlating to the majors? According to SP stats, 59 Ks 19 looking. That's more than 2/3 of his K's swinging.
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Post by jmei on May 19, 2018 8:22:25 GMT -5
I think the league average percentage of strikeouts looking is usually in the 20-25% range, so Beeks is higher than average, but not crazily so.
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Post by telson13 on May 19, 2018 11:12:08 GMT -5
I think the league average percentage of strikeouts looking is usually in the 20-25% range, so Beeks is higher than average, but not crazily so. Yeah, I read Cistulli’s brief write-up, but I still have some trouble reconciling what he’s claiming vs., for example, that 14% SwStr rate. I mean, I guess one could argue that, for that sort of K% he should be a little higher. But it’s still a high SwStr. And it’s not as if his SwStr/K% ratio is unusual. Josh Hader is at a 57% K rate with 20% SwStr. And Freddy Peralta just whiffed 13 Rockies (where are the Brewers getting these guys?!) in 5.2, with a SwStr% of 16.3. Peralta’s always has terrific K rates in the minors despite basically wholly relying on a 92-mph fourseam (and some deception with excellent extension). He certainly doesn’t have what a scout might call “Plus” stuff, unless said scout saw batters repeatedly have trouble getting on his fb. Idk...I’m not sure what Beeks eventually is as a player, but he’s got over a year of striking a bunch of batters out, and he’s in a whole different realm this year. He’s not Shane Bieber, so even if he’s getting Ks looking, it’s because guys are fooled, probably not because he’s painting the black repeatedly.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
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Post by ericmvan on May 19, 2018 11:49:55 GMT -5
I think the league average percentage of strikeouts looking is usually in the 20-25% range, so Beeks is higher than average, but not crazily so. Yeah, I read Cistulli’s brief write-up, but I still have some trouble reconciling what he’s claiming vs., for example, that 14% SwStr rate. I mean, I guess one could argue that, for that sort of K% he should be a little higher. But it’s still a high SwStr. And it’s not as if his SwStr/K% ratio is unusual. Josh Hader is at a 57% K rate with 20% SwStr. And Freddy Peralta just whiffed 13 Rockies (where are the Brewers getting these guys?!) in 5.2, with a SwStr% of 16.3. Peralta’s always has terrific K rates in the minors despite basically wholly relying on a 92-mph fourseam (and some deception with excellent extension). He certainly doesn’t have what a scout might call “Plus” stuff, unless said scout saw batters repeatedly have trouble getting on his fb. Idk...I’m not sure what Beeks eventually is as a player, but he’s got over a year of striking a bunch of batters out, and he’s in a whole different realm this year. He’s not Shane Bieber, so even if he’s getting Ks looking, it’s because guys are fooled, probably not because he’s painting the black repeatedly. It's not adequate to take a guy who's doing a 1999-2000 Pedro on AAA and say he's nothing special without an explanation of how he's doing it.
It's not deception / unfamiliarity because his Ks and Kc rates are unchanged the second time around the order, and his Ks declines in the SSS the 3rd time around by as much or less than you'd expect from fatigue. He does get a big decline in Kc, but that's probably because hitters, at that point, know that he's catching guys looking, and hack. His GB% goes way up as the game goes on, and his hardness of contact goes down (masked by some bad BABIP luck on GB the 3rd time -- that's where 2 of his 3 infield hits have happened).
One possibility for all the strikeouts on fastballs is spin rate. A plus spin rate and plus command makes 92 mph play way up. We've seen plus-plus make 88 look like 101.
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Post by telson13 on May 19, 2018 12:23:04 GMT -5
Yeah, I read Cistulli’s brief write-up, but I still have some trouble reconciling what he’s claiming vs., for example, that 14% SwStr rate. I mean, I guess one could argue that, for that sort of K% he should be a little higher. But it’s still a high SwStr. And it’s not as if his SwStr/K% ratio is unusual. Josh Hader is at a 57% K rate with 20% SwStr. And Freddy Peralta just whiffed 13 Rockies (where are the Brewers getting these guys?!) in 5.2, with a SwStr% of 16.3. Peralta’s always has terrific K rates in the minors despite basically wholly relying on a 92-mph fourseam (and some deception with excellent extension). He certainly doesn’t have what a scout might call “Plus” stuff, unless said scout saw batters repeatedly have trouble getting on his fb. Idk...I’m not sure what Beeks eventually is as a player, but he’s got over a year of striking a bunch of batters out, and he’s in a whole different realm this year. He’s not Shane Bieber, so even if he’s getting Ks looking, it’s because guys are fooled, probably not because he’s painting the black repeatedly. It's not adequate to take a guy who's doing a 1999-2000 Pedro on AAA and say he's nothing special without an explanation of how he's doing it.
It's not deception / unfamiliarity because his Ks and Kc rates are unchanged the second time around the order, and his Ks declines in the SSS the 3rd time around by as much or less than you'd expect from fatigue. He does get a big decline in Kc, but that's probably because hitters, at that point, know that he's catching guys looking, and hack. His GB% goes way up as the game goes on, and his hardness of contact goes down (masked by some bad BABIP luck on GB the 3rd time -- that's where 2 of his 3 infield hits have happened).
One possibility for all the strikeouts on fastballs is spin rate. A plus spin rate and plus command makes 92 mph play way up. We've seen plus-plus make 88 look like 101.
Yeah, I was using “deception” as a catch-all, probably not the best way to do so. Peralta, for example, sits 92, but he’s got huge extension with a long stride, so his velo is probably an “effective” 94 (fg has a couple interesting articles about him: www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/freddy-peraltas-fastballs/ ; www.fangraphs.com/blogs/meet-the-extraordinary-freddy-peralta/). He also hides the ball behind his head until very late in his motion, with a quick whip out. That’s more of what I meant by deception. Peralta also alters his grip, so he gets some cut...which, not surprisingly for Beeks (and historically, for Mr Spin, Pomeranz) coincided with a significant bump in K rate. The guy I always think about with Beeks is Okajima. Batters just look confused, despite the “stuff” not being anything special. I’m fascinated by Beeks. Maybe it’s extension, spin (even variable spin with different grips), hiding the ball/funk in the delivery (I’m going to look for a CF view)...or probably a combination of all. I’m not sure I’d call him “plus” on command right now, but if his GB rate and contact quality are dropping later, he’s probably got some pitchability/sequencing skill, too. I’m just dying to see the data at the MLB level, because, surface-level, he’s just a small lefty with solid-average velocity and an average or maybe solid-average CB, and basically average command/control. He gets a fair number of IFFB (Lester was an expert in his later days at getting pop ups with his cutter, and thus avoiding the “Fly-ball Lefty in Fenway” horror show). So I just wanna know how he’s doing it, and...more importantly...if it translates at all. FWIW, his repertoire and velo look fairly similar to Hader, who had a much tougher time in AAA (and whose sitting velo prob is playing up in the bullpen). Beeks is getting pulled a lot this year, so maybe he’s working inside more. But I certainly think you’re right about him being a potentially terrific pseudocloser down the stretch.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
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Post by ericmvan on May 19, 2018 17:56:33 GMT -5
It's not adequate to take a guy who's doing a 1999-2000 Pedro on AAA and say he's nothing special without an explanation of how he's doing it.
It's not deception / unfamiliarity because his Ks and Kc rates are unchanged the second time around the order, and his Ks declines in the SSS the 3rd time around by as much or less than you'd expect from fatigue. He does get a big decline in Kc, but that's probably because hitters, at that point, know that he's catching guys looking, and hack. His GB% goes way up as the game goes on, and his hardness of contact goes down (masked by some bad BABIP luck on GB the 3rd time -- that's where 2 of his 3 infield hits have happened).
One possibility for all the strikeouts on fastballs is spin rate. A plus spin rate and plus command makes 92 mph play way up. We've seen plus-plus make 88 look like 101.
Yeah, I was using “deception” as a catch-all, probably not the best way to do so. Peralta, for example, sits 92, but he’s got huge extension with a long stride, so his velo is probably an “effective” 94 (fg has a couple interesting articles about him: www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/freddy-peraltas-fastballs/ ; www.fangraphs.com/blogs/meet-the-extraordinary-freddy-peralta/). He also hides the ball behind his head until very late in his motion, with a quick whip out. That’s more of what I meant by deception. Peralta also alters his grip, so he gets some cut...which, not surprisingly for Beeks (and historically, for Mr Spin, Pomeranz) coincided with a significant bump in K rate. The guy I always think about with Beeks is Okajima. Batters just look confused, despite the “stuff” not being anything special. I’m fascinated by Beeks. Maybe it’s extension, spin (even variable spin with different grips), hiding the ball/funk in the delivery (I’m going to look for a CF view)...or probably a combination of all. I’m not sure I’d call him “plus” on command right now, but if his GB rate and contact quality are dropping later, he’s probably got some pitchability/sequencing skill, too. I’m just dying to see the data at the MLB level, because, surface-level, he’s just a small lefty with solid-average velocity and an average or maybe solid-average CB, and basically average command/control. He gets a fair number of IFFB (Lester was an expert in his later days at getting pop ups with his cutter, and thus avoiding the “Fly-ball Lefty in Fenway” horror show). So I just wanna know how he’s doing it, and...more importantly...if it translates at all. FWIW, his repertoire and velo look fairly similar to Hader, who had a much tougher time in AAA (and whose sitting velo prob is playing up in the bullpen). Beeks is getting pulled a lot this year, so maybe he’s working inside more. But I certainly think you’re right about him being a potentially terrific pseudocloser down the stretch. I was being sloppy with "deception," too. It's ill-defined. There's a subset that leads to big times-around-the-order splits. The poster child was Jered Weaver, whose upper arm angle (low three-quarters) led hitters to expect serious armside run, but who weirdly held his forearm vertically and got backspin as pure as Okajima. So righties popped up everything to right field off the end of the bat. Their brains would figure it out by the time they were seeing him 2 or 3 times in a game, though.
Oki had ungodly splits by career PA versus. The motion was so odd that people just had to see it for two or three PA before they could handle it.
Whereas guys who hide the ball just add an effective 2-4 (?) mph to their velocity. I agree that I'd love to know if Beeks is doing that to any degree.
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Post by telson13 on May 19, 2018 21:16:30 GMT -5
Interesting look at Beeks vs Nick Gordon. His delivery is a little funky in that he really shows his back to the hitter. He looks in this (and a CF view I found from Portland in 2017) to be back-turned almost 45 degrees (back facing about mid- way down the 3b line), with his whole L arm visible to the batter. But he very quickly turns (and drops) to come on-line and deliver, with his arm appearing late from behind his head into a true 3/4. I wish I had a better look from CF but I haven’t found one yet. The body twist looks more pronounced in the Seadogs footage I found, but it’s still evident here. Just watching, from Gordon’s view, the arm does come quickly and it’s hidden well until he whips it around.
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Post by telson13 on May 19, 2018 21:25:35 GMT -5
Here’s a good CF view. I tried slowing it down and if you pause mid-delivery, he’s got a brief show when he drops his arm, but then as he cocks his elbow the arm’s almost entirely hidden, and then *boom*, it’s out in full extension and on the way. In a single frame it goes from cocked behind his head to fully out and near release, so I imagine it’s not a great look for the batter and it’s very quick.
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Post by boydhurstlovechild on May 20, 2018 9:09:54 GMT -5
Um, what I'm seeing there in trying to figure out Beeks' dominance is the strikeout pitch there. Filthy cut fastball. Four pitches from the left that play, one being a that kind of cutter?
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Post by charliezink16 on May 31, 2018 14:55:11 GMT -5
Haven't followed the system as closely as I used to, so I'm not too familiar with Jalen Beeks' progression. Not asking about his floor/ceiling or pitch repertoire, rather when can we expect him in Boston? When Pomeranz gets roughed up tonight and ideally hits the phantom DL, I'm expecting my man Steven Wright to take his spot in the rotation. But how long until Beeks gets a look in the rotation? Thanks.
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Post by ramireja on May 31, 2018 16:13:18 GMT -5
Hey charliezink...first off, welcome back. Its been a while right? Second, I moved this post here in case anyone wants to try and answer. I didn't want it to get lost in the gameday thread archives.
My take -- and you alluded to this -- I think Beeks getting a look in the rotation depends on opportunity, but thats complicated by the fact that the Sox could elect to start someone on the 25-man roster (i.e., Wright or Velazquez) before Beeks. I'm very curious and eager to see if Beeks can hold his own in the rotation, and ideally it would be nice if he could make 5-7 starts in the majors this year to see if he is a potential candidate for the rotation next year. We do have a logjam of 5-7 starters/swingmen right now though so it makes it hard to predict how it will all play out should Pomeranz lose his spot in the rotation.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,274
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Post by radiohix on Jun 1, 2018 14:41:56 GMT -5
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 1, 2018 15:19:05 GMT -5
This could be a situation where a guy is just better than the scouting report. Does his fastball have a high spin rate? There has to be something here that is a hidden plus to allow for a pretty large sample of stellar performance in the high minors right?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 6, 2018 17:20:12 GMT -5
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Post by patrmac04 on Jun 7, 2018 10:39:00 GMT -5
I haven't been following the Sox as I have in the past... but given the peripherals about this kid's stats has me really intrigued. His stats show some incredible control and K rates for a guy without a power arm. Can some people who have seen him in person give some feedback?
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 7, 2018 11:41:21 GMT -5
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