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2018 Draft
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 17, 2018 8:08:56 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 18, 2018 7:56:32 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on May 18, 2018 8:49:17 GMT -5
Walker hit two HRs last night and it sounds like the power is starting to play more. Curious how the board would react to more of a safer pick.
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Post by borisman on May 18, 2018 8:53:33 GMT -5
Seems like a Benintendi type player/hitter.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 18, 2018 9:02:53 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on May 18, 2018 9:26:32 GMT -5
I wonder if Connine has struggled enough for a below slot deal then grab a HS arm that drops.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 18, 2018 11:53:37 GMT -5
I wonder if Connine has struggled enough for a below slot deal then grab a HS arm that drops. Not a terrible idea. Out of the cluster of college bats potentially available, I'm highest on Greyson Jenista (Cape Cod League MVP), Steele Walker (good hit tool and track record with wood bats), and Trevor Larnach (breakout season this year, least likely to be available). I'm lukewarm on Eierman and Conine. It's intriguing that the Sox have shown some interest in Hankins, but I've read he will be looking for a ~$6mil bonus, so that will probably torpedo the rest of the draft.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 19, 2018 14:09:58 GMT -5
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2018 Draft
May 19, 2018 17:36:20 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on May 19, 2018 17:36:20 GMT -5
I honestly had written Connine off but he was 6-9 this weekend with 3 HRs vs Georgia Tech. Maybe we should keep an eye on him.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 19, 2018 20:02:59 GMT -5
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2018 Draft
May 19, 2018 21:43:25 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 19, 2018 21:43:25 GMT -5
I like it: low-mileage arm hitting 96. Be a nice pick-up in the 4th-6th rounds.
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2018 Draft
May 19, 2018 21:58:05 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 19, 2018 21:58:05 GMT -5
It seems like there are a lot (a LOT) of good-not-terrific HS arms in this draft. I’d like to see the Sox take a college hitter with a high floor at 26 (I like Jenista too), and maybe take some shots at HS arms in rounds 2-5, or even overslots after rd 10. I’m really hoping they get creative; obviously HS arms (and arms in general) are risky, so that’d have to be tempered with some upside bats. Their system could really use a boost of higher-end talent. Given where they’re picking, it’s a real crapshoot. But I sincerely hope that they stay away from the Tate Mathenys in the 3-5 range. I realize there’s value to (relatively) high-floor picks, but the state of their system and the youth of their positional core (not to mention the salary implications that’ll have in 3-5 years, about when you’d expect HSers to be knocking on the door) tells me they ought to gamble a bit. Yeah, it’s always BPA, but I think that given two similarly-weighted guys, they ought to value youth and upside over MLB proximity/floor.
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Post by telson13 on May 19, 2018 22:00:51 GMT -5
Also, thanks VTsox, for being so on top of the draft/amateur scene. It’s really a great resource and a huge addition to this site. Obrigado!
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2018 Draft
May 19, 2018 22:24:15 GMT -5
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jdb likes this
Post by telson13 on May 19, 2018 22:24:15 GMT -5
Walker hit two HRs last night and it sounds like the power is starting to play more. Curious how the board would react to more of a safer pick. He definitely seems to fit the Sox “archetype” positional player: a little undersized, very good hit tool (I’m a fan of hit tool myself), up-the-middle player with otherwise basically average tools across the board but no glaring (or really, any) weakness. I like the swing, it’s got uppercut, and he looks to be a solid-average runner. I’d be happy with him; I like your idea of a slightly underslot 1 and then taking some shots later on on some of those upside HS arms. Steele and Jenista both seem like the sort of player who’s a very good bet to be an average MLBer (1.5-2.5 WAR), and fairly soon. College hitters just make it so much more frequently than any other group. And with the MLB ball being what it is these days, I think it puts a premium on hit tool vs power. LF/1B/DH types with 30-HR power are a dime a dozen these days. Steele does remind me of Benintendi a bit, and I really like the idea that he or Jenista would have a high probability of meaning this draft produced SOME value, making upside gambles down lower a much more palatable option. They need a big upside talent infusion, but at the back end of the first round, the obvious big tools/relatively low-risk guys are gone.
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Post by cotuitfan on May 20, 2018 10:08:44 GMT -5
Griffin Conine two more home runs for Duke in their regular season finale. 15 for the year. Heating up at right time. Raked in Cotuit last Summer. I think that type of power is not an overreach at #26.
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Post by telson13 on May 20, 2018 11:13:38 GMT -5
Griffin Conine two more home runs for Duke in their regular season finale. 15 for the year. Heating up at right time. Raked in Cotuit last Summer. I think that type of power is not an overreach at #26. Eh, when Logan Morrison hits 38 bombs and gets $4M, or Chris Cater hits 41, gets nontendered, and isn’t even in MLB a year later...I think drafting any player whose lone standout tool is power is an overreach. Maybe 3rd or 4th round for me (I’m sure he’ll go higher, but I’m not convinced he can hit in AA let alone MLB).
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2018 Draft
May 20, 2018 18:56:47 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on May 20, 2018 18:56:47 GMT -5
Telson, what would you think of Eierman? I’m kinda mixed on him but would love to have a guy that could maybe move up as a SS, 3B or 2B.
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2018 Draft
May 21, 2018 10:14:38 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on May 21, 2018 10:14:38 GMT -5
The guys over at 2080 baseball are certainly talking up Connine these last few days. Seem to think it’s laughable he’s pegged in the 2-3 round most places.
Nick J. Faleris Nick J. Faleris @nickjfaleris Over the summer on the Cape, Conine was arguably the top overall bat, slashing .329/.406/.537, striking out about 23% of the time (~185 PA). There will be strikeouts, but this is a dude who raked on (arguably) the most important stage for rising draft-eligibles. 10:16 AM · May 21, 2018
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2018 Draft
May 21, 2018 11:31:36 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 21, 2018 11:31:36 GMT -5
Telson, what would you think of Eierman? I’m kinda mixed on him but would love to have a guy that could maybe move up as a SS, 3B or 2B. Mixed too. He sounds like a potential MLB defender at SS but I have questions about the bat. TBH, I really like SS/CF types over anything. There’s the most margin for error defensively, and if they stick, offensively. Idk if a slightly more narrow stance and a little more loft might loosen him up and unlock more power. I guess all things considered, re: tools my “must-have” is an average to better hit, and it’s the one I most like to see plus. Power is nice, but if a guy can’t make contact it’s pretty irrelevant. Then again, he struggled to start the year and probably is a legit top-15 if he hadn’t. So he might be considered a good value pick. He strikes me as a slightly-better-all-around Chatham. I’d be fine with them drafting him, simply for the SS with potential avg-or-better offense and defense. I’m a little higher on Steele/Jenista, but i do get the sense Eierman might be a guy who unlocks a few things at the next level.
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2018 Draft
May 21, 2018 11:41:21 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 21, 2018 11:41:21 GMT -5
The guys over at 2080 baseball are certainly talking up Connine these last few days. Seem to think it’s laughable he’s pegged in the 2-3 round most places. Nick J. Faleris Nick J. Faleris @nickjfaleris Over the summer on the Cape, Conine was arguably the top overall bat, slashing .329/.406/.537, striking out about 23% of the time (~185 PA). There will be strikeouts, but this is a dude who raked on (arguably) the most important stage for rising draft-eligibles. 10:16 AM · May 21, 2018 I will say this: if his issues this spring are related to pressing and trying to boost his draft stock with a bunch of bombs, he could be a super value. I can see him falling into late-2/early 3 and, three years later, everyone shaking their heads at how dumb they were for passing him up. I know I said 3/4 (4th round was a bit of an exaggeration), but I honestly wouldn’t have any problem if they took him in the second. He’s probably substantially less risky than a HS arm. And I did say I wanted upside...Conine’s is BIG. In the 1st though...ehhh, that would make me *really* nervous.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 21, 2018 11:52:30 GMT -5
"Excelled in the Cape League" and "was viewed as a potential first-round talent entering the season, but his stock fell" are two phrases we have at the ready to plug into write-ups on the club's draft picks every year, so Conine would be a fit in those respects.
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Post by coachmac on May 21, 2018 15:51:24 GMT -5
"Excelled in the Cape League" and "was viewed as a potential first-round talent entering the season, but his stock fell" are two phrases we have at the ready to plug into write-ups on the club's draft picks every year, so Conine would be a fit in those respects. What about" played for Team USA"?
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2018 Draft
May 21, 2018 16:32:41 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 21, 2018 16:32:41 GMT -5
FWIW I think Jenista is the closest thing this draft has to Aaron Judge. Really large human being, plenty of swing and miss (Jenista actually seems to have much less of an issue there), lots of walks, surprisingly athletic for their size (both with surprising SB totals; Judge was a good if not great OF and has been above-avg in MLB; Jenista is an excellent 1b and is unexpectedly passably solid as a CF). They bat from opposite sides of the plate, but otherwise look pretty similar there, too (looked at a 2017 Cape clip and it looks like Jenista’s toned down a previously pronounced leg kick, although it’s still bigger than Judge’s college version):
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Post by cotuitfan on May 21, 2018 18:30:08 GMT -5
I guess my Cotuitfan handle might tell you something, but I watched Greyson for two years in Cotuit - great kid, Mike Roberts loved him - good athlete, handled centerfield well in '17 - but I don't see judge comparisons - for starters he's 6 inches shorter. Judge's slugging percentage his draft year was .655 - Greyson's this year is .490 - Judge struck out 53 times in 206 abs, abt 26% - Greyson 39 in 192, 20% - I saw both kids play, a lot - Greyson is a great player and will make a great pro - he's mature, a leader on the team, who can handle himself well, much like Judge, but I just don't see the comparison in abilities
And I know the fears with Conine, but in 30 years watching closely, his is about the best bat speed I've ever seen in Cotuit - I was def more sure of Smoak, and Zimmer was just an all around great ballplayer, but Conine did not look like Jeren Kendall in terms of strikeouts (and I love Kendall and am rooting hard for him)
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Post by sarasoxer on May 22, 2018 5:58:31 GMT -5
I'm all in favor of getting some "large human(s)". We must have the smallest on-field team in the bigs. My gut tells me 'size matters' over 162...year over year.
We've gone one way tapping a niche of under-sized, perhaps underrated for that reason, players. The Yanks have gone the opposite direction.
It was always comforting to see the large father striding to the dish.
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