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2018 Draft
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Post by iakovos11 on May 4, 2018 15:15:22 GMT -5
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Post by azblue on May 4, 2018 15:22:25 GMT -5
"Smith is now on the tail end of a pretty amazing growth spurt. His driver’s license (from the end of his sophomore year in high school) lists him at 5-foot-10, 130 pounds. Smith is now 6-foot-10, 215 pounds. As he gained 12 inches in height, he also added 12 mph to his fastball."
But, officer....I SWEAR that IS my driver's license....
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 5, 2018 8:54:03 GMT -5
I'd really like a good outfielder with our first pick. Seems like our system is missing some good outfielders. The system is missing everything. Every single thing. A team shouldn't draft based on need, but this team DEFINITELY shouldn't draft based on need. I was also thinking about how the Red Sox seem to do a better job drafting and developing them than pitchers.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 5, 2018 16:20:45 GMT -5
The system is missing everything. Every single thing. A team shouldn't draft based on need, but this team DEFINITELY shouldn't draft based on need. I was also thinking about how the Red Sox seem to do a better job drafting and developing them than pitchers. I don't think that's necessarily true, at least as compared to other position players. You've got Bradley and Benintendi on one hand versus Bogaerts, Devers and maybe Pedroia on the other depending on how far back you want to reach, and then who knows how you should count Betts, who played 230 games at 2B in the minors compared to 46 in the outfield, all in CF. And then, of course, there's the eternal chicken-egg question of player development as applied to this situation - is the problem the amateur scouting or the player development?
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Post by telson13 on May 6, 2018 14:38:15 GMT -5
I was also thinking about how the Red Sox seem to do a better job drafting and developing them than pitchers. I don't think that's necessarily true, at least as compared to other position players. You've got Bradley and Benintendi on one hand versus Bogaerts, Devers and maybe Pedroia on the other depending on how far back you want to reach, and then who knows how you should count Betts, who played 230 games at 2B in the minors compared to 46 in the outfield, all in CF. And then, of course, there's the eternal chicken-egg question of player development as applied to this situation - is the problem the amateur scouting or the player development? I was just thinking about that today. The Sox definitely seem to have a prototype (tall, relatively lean but not skinny RHP). Houck, Light, Barnes, Ranaudo; even their HS choices like Bucholz and Ball (the rare LH) are tall, and skinny but projectable. I wonder how much that obsession with height/body type has hurt them? While they’re perfectly comfortable with short position players (Pedey, JBJ, Mookie, Beni), they seem hung up on a pitching body archetype that may be over-weighted in their evaluations. I get the thinking re: plane, extension, and durability. But I would think that a short guy with a good 4-seam would have good plane pitching up in the zone. And height does not invariably correlate with extension (see Ranaudo). And the durability CW is largely debunked, although there’s always some risk of attrition bias. But with all of the other factors that go into a good pitcher (command, location, spin, movement, coachability, adaptability, fluidity, reproducibility, intelligence, drive...), why do they still seem to be hung up on body type as an apparent surrogate for “stuff/projectability?” I could be off base, maybe I’m cherry-picking from my own anecdotal observations. But have you spoken with their amateur scouting folks/gotten the sense of what they value? FWIW I realize that this is largely an industry-wide phenomenon. And it’s not set in stone for the Sox (Espinoza got a huge bonus as a skinny sub-6’ amateur). I just wonder if they’re missing a glaring market inefficiency. And if that’s not the problem, then they’d be well-served to figure out what is, whether it’s adaptibility or coachability, or an organizational/development failure in terms of maximizing talent from the players they sign. Idk, maybe with all the new data they’ll tease something out. I like the approach they had with Houck, so we’ll see how that goes. But when I look at NY’s recent run of pitchers (in particular, taking unheralded guys and making viable, sometimes good players out of them), I wonder what’s amiss. I mean, even Severino was seen as a project throughout his minor league career. He made top-100s, but he was consistently seen as a flawed 3. Now he looks like an awaiting ace. The Sox do that with position players, but I can’t remember them ever doing it with a pitcher other than Clemens. Maybe Lester, who was a second-rounder. But since 2010 it seems most high picks have struggled and gone to the ‘pen, and lower picks just disappear.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 8, 2018 13:44:23 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on May 8, 2018 13:56:56 GMT -5
I was just thinking about that today. The Sox definitely seem to have a prototype (tall, relatively lean but not skinny RHP). Houck, Light, Barnes, Ranaudo; even their HS choices like Bucholz and Ball (the rare LH) are tall, and skinny but projectable. I wonder how much that obsession with height/body type has hurt them? While they’re perfectly comfortable with short position players (Pedey, JBJ, Mookie, Beni), they seem hung up on a pitching body archetype that may be over-weighted in their evaluations. I've been arguing this for awhile, particularly in light of Owens and Ball. Both had projectable, prototype bodies (and in Ball's case, phenomenal world-class-type athleticism) but in neither case did they have first-round stuff. And the best pitching prospects they found in the last decade were Kopech and Espinoza, the two who strayed from that prototype. Kopech is 6'3" so that's closer, but he's not really a guy coming from an ideal plane with his arm angle.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 8, 2018 14:44:16 GMT -5
I am a big believer in drafting the best player available. However, that can be problematical when choosing between a pitcher and a hitter. I think it is quite difficult to compare the two in an effort to pick the better one.
Right now, looking at the weak hitting throughout the Sox system, I would pick the best hitter unless there was a potential superstar pitcher available - highly unlikely.
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Post by telson13 on May 8, 2018 21:15:27 GMT -5
I am a big believer in drafting the best player available. However, that can be problematical when choosing between a pitcher and a hitter. I think it is quite difficult to compare the two in an effort to pick the better one. Right now, looking at the weak hitting throughout the Sox system, I would pick the best hitter unless there was a potential superstar pitcher available - highly unlikely. There’s definitely a *substantial* difference in attrition rates. Hitters in the top 100 are roughly 2-3 times more likely to be avg or better MLBers than are pitchers if I recall correctly. So yeah, focusing on an upside hitter seems a safer route to maximize value.
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2018 8:28:27 GMT -5
Is this the clearest the #1 pick has been since Harper in 2010? Is anyone out there arguing someone other than Mize could/should be #1? It's funny, I feel like we went through several years with a consensus #1: Upton in '05, Price in '07, Strasburg in '09, Harper in '10; but there hasn't been one now in eight years.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 10, 2018 10:41:00 GMT -5
Is this the clearest the #1 pick has been since Harper in 2010? Is anyone out there arguing someone other than Mize could/should be #1? It's funny, I feel like we went through several years with a consensus #1: Upton in '05, Price in '07, Strasburg in '09, Harper in '10; but there hasn't been one now in eight years. Yeah, it's been a while. I would say Gerrit Cole and Brady Aiken (2014) were seen as mostly consensus 1-1 guys, but the Strasburg/Harper combo were the last two guys who really had the hype you would want for the first overall pick. Mize is also benefiting from a whole lot of uncertainty among the guys behind him. He's clearly the best prospect at this point, but he does have some durability issues that he might have been dinged for if there was anyone who performed even close to his level this year.
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2018 10:45:09 GMT -5
Fair point on Cole, but I disagree about Aiken. Rodon had been seen as a consensus #1 for awhile then (basically since he was a Freshman), and then Aiken and Kolek got about equal amounts of helium in the last month, which seemed a little crazy at the time and even crazier in hindsight.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 10, 2018 10:56:15 GMT -5
Fair point on Cole, but I disagree about Aiken. Rodon had been seen as a consensus #1 for awhile then (basically since he was a Freshman), and then Aiken and Kolek got about equal amounts of helium in the last month, which seemed a little crazy at the time and even crazier in hindsight. True. For Aiken, I think of "consensus" in that he was ranked #1 on most publication's pre-draft lists and subsequently went 1-1. Aiken did have some track record (versus Kolek), but nothing close to what Rodon had.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 11, 2018 8:18:03 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 11, 2018 8:19:58 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on May 11, 2018 10:59:56 GMT -5
So now Calis and Mayo have us linked to Beer. I wonder if it's just speculation while doing a mock or a stronger link on the scene. I'm starting to like a few of the college bats projected near the back of the first but it may be me talking myself into it bc I'd like a college bat who could help in 2-3 years when the roster is in flux.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 14, 2018 13:10:27 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on May 14, 2018 13:21:28 GMT -5
One thing is clear. If they're linked in this many mocks, the Red Sox are definitely not going to draft either Beer or Turang.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 15, 2018 8:22:48 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on May 15, 2018 8:55:00 GMT -5
Draft eligible sophomore, killer curveball. I see him listed at 6'2" and 6'3" at different sites, and he looks more filled in than 195.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 15, 2018 9:07:52 GMT -5
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Post by borisman on May 15, 2018 9:08:01 GMT -5
Not sure Rolison will last till 26 but if he does I will not complain about this pick.
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Post by James Dunne on May 15, 2018 9:24:40 GMT -5
Dan O'Dowd will call him a reliever and everyone will freak out.
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Post by jimed14 on May 15, 2018 9:37:31 GMT -5
Harold Reynolds will tell us we may need to replace Chris Sale next year so we need a pitcher.
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2018 Draft
May 15, 2018 10:56:24 GMT -5
via mobile
Post by telson13 on May 15, 2018 10:56:24 GMT -5
Harold Reynolds will tell us we may need to replace Chris Sale next year so we need a pitcher. Omg...😂😂😂 And Nick Cafardo, who doesn’t deign to deal in amateurs or player development, will nonetheless find the time to comment on the “bulldogginess” of the pitcher or “dirt dogginess” of the position player they take at 26.
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