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2018 Draft
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Post by jimed14 on May 1, 2018 21:39:15 GMT -5
I never understand how wooden bats can't be adjusted to. If you can hit a ball hard with an aluminum bat, you can hit a ball hard with a wooden bat. Why would some people have a bigger problem with it than others? Obviously the ball isn't hit as hard with a wooden bat, but isn't the decrease in exit velocity easy to predict for every single hitter? The point isn't just that exit velocity decreases with wood. I'm pretty sure wooden bats have a much smaller sweet spot, for one thing. You get punished a lot more for not hitting the ball on the sweet spot with wood than you do with alumninum, even with the BBCOR bats. Essentially, aluminum is able to hide more flaws than wooden bats do. Hitters who are better able to hit the ball consistently on the sweet spot do better with wood, is my understanding. I'm sure there are other points, but that's the one I remember (and was able to confirm with a quick google search, at least pre-BBCor). Ok, that makes sense. I was playing way before the huge advancements in metal bats so I have no clue about most of these things. The best thing about aluminum bats when I played was that they didn't break.
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Post by telson13 on May 1, 2018 22:08:06 GMT -5
Oh, hell yeah. Please, please, please. I like the power potential and the OBP, but his trouble with wood bats scares me. If he’s not barreling up, he has very little chance of sticking in MLB...sluggers are cheap these days and his defensive ability is nil. I could see him slipping to them in rd 2, although not likely. He does kinda seem to have a little Mo Vaughn flavor though. I like the Sox’s up-the-middle draft approach. I’d like to see them take another college arm or a SS/CF type. HS arms are risky but if a good one falls to them, snatch him up. Obviously, BPA, but I get nervous about 1b/LF/DH types in the first round. Still, the TTO style is enticing sometimes...
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Post by telson13 on May 1, 2018 22:12:56 GMT -5
Agreed. Also, the draft just looks to be pretty decent in general, especially in terms of arms. So the gap from say five to twenty is narrower than it is many years. From everything I’ve read, this draft is so deep in HS arms that there’s not much drop-off in the second tier until maybe mid (or hopefully late?) rd 2. I’d love to see the Sox end up with local boy Mike Vasil, who’s had a (hopefully minor) arm issue. He could slide.
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Post by jdb on May 2, 2018 11:37:11 GMT -5
I was curious if Vasil could sign under slot like a lot of injured guys and then have some more money to play with in the later rounds. I tend to side with Telson on Beer, think he’s kinda similar to Luken Baken who isn’t going first round. All bat hope they field. I would trust the scouts though and if they think Beer is a heart of the order hitter I’m okay with it.
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Post by iakovos11 on May 2, 2018 11:47:57 GMT -5
Oh, hell yeah. Please, please, please. I like the power potential and the OBP, but his trouble with wood bats scares me. If he’s not barreling up, he has very little chance of sticking in MLB...sluggers are cheap these days and his defensive ability is nil. I could see him slipping to them in rd 2, although not likely. He does kinda seem to have a little Mo Vaughn flavor though. I like the Sox’s up-the-middle draft approach. I’d like to see them take another college arm or a SS/CF type. HS arms are risky but if a good one falls to them, snatch him up. Obviously, BPA, but I get nervous about 1b/LF/DH types in the first round. Still, the TTO style is enticing sometimes... I don't what to think of the player. I just want to have some fun with the gameday threads.
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Post by telson13 on May 2, 2018 22:03:23 GMT -5
I like the power potential and the OBP, but his trouble with wood bats scares me. If he’s not barreling up, he has very little chance of sticking in MLB...sluggers are cheap these days and his defensive ability is nil. I could see him slipping to them in rd 2, although not likely. He does kinda seem to have a little Mo Vaughn flavor though. I like the Sox’s up-the-middle draft approach. I’d like to see them take another college arm or a SS/CF type. HS arms are risky but if a good one falls to them, snatch him up. Obviously, BPA, but I get nervous about 1b/LF/DH types in the first round. Still, the TTO style is enticing sometimes... I don't what to think of the player. I just want to have some fun with the gameday threads. Omg I completely missed that but now the universe is aligning and all makes sense, again.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 3, 2018 9:21:04 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 3, 2018 9:53:35 GMT -5
Oh god. Not another shortstop who can't hit. Please god not another shortstop who can't hit.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2018 9:57:31 GMT -5
Oh god. Not another shortstop who can't hit. Please god not another shortstop who can't hit. Is this a Casey Kelly or Devin Marrero reference? Lol
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 3, 2018 10:05:11 GMT -5
It's funny, MLB Pipeline and BA both seem to like his hit tool more and are down on his power. Law says the opposite.
Turang was the top HS prospect and a consensus top 10 pick going into last summer.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 3, 2018 10:22:31 GMT -5
I'd really like a good outfielder with our first pick. Seems like our system is missing some good outfielders.
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Post by James Dunne on May 3, 2018 10:29:33 GMT -5
I'd really like a good outfielder with our first pick. Seems like our system is missing some good outfielders. The system is missing everything. Every single thing. A team shouldn't draft based on need, but this team DEFINITELY shouldn't draft based on need.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2018 11:12:55 GMT -5
I'd really like a good outfielder with our first pick. Seems like our system is missing some good outfielders. The system is missing everything. Every single thing. A team shouldn't draft based on need, but this team DEFINITELY shouldn't draft based on need. System has some good arms. Could always use more arms though. Doesn't have much in terms of everyday position players, but I've seen worse Sox systems though. Just no more first base only types for me. Seems like this system has a ton of those in Okimney, Travis, and Pedro Castellanos.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 3, 2018 11:23:13 GMT -5
This system is really barren when it comes to up the middle players. Now that I think of it they're not too good on corner OFs either.
Well at least they have some promising starting pitchers which is something this organization hasn't really had in about a decade.
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Post by James Dunne on May 3, 2018 12:07:32 GMT -5
This system is really barren when it comes to up the middle players. Now that I think of it they're not too good on corner OFs either. Well at least they have some promising starting pitchers which is something this organization hasn't really had in about a decade. Groome/Mata/Houck is not as strong a group of prospects as Barnes/Owens/Webster/De La Rosa/Ranaudo was five years ago, and certainly weaker than the Espinoza/Kopech duo two years ago. They just don't have the excellent bats in the system to push them down the rankings. There is decent depth, though: Shawaryn, Beeks, Scherff, Hernandez, and Raudes is a second tier I am happy with. Their draft pick will debut, at worst, at #5 in the rankings, and there are a few potentially available players who I would consider #2 right now.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2018 12:14:57 GMT -5
2008 was a pretty crappy time for the farm system after Pedrioa and Ellsbury graduated. You had Lars Anderson, Clay Bucholz (who was actually a great prospect), and Ryan Lavarnway in there somewhere. Yuck.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 3, 2018 13:01:31 GMT -5
This system is really barren when it comes to up the middle players. Now that I think of it they're not too good on corner OFs either. Well at least they have some promising starting pitchers which is something this organization hasn't really had in about a decade. Groome/Mata/Houck is not as strong a group of prospects as Barnes/Owens/Webster/De La Rosa/Ranaudo was five years ago, and certainly weaker than the Espinoza/Kopech duo two years ago. They just don't have the excellent bats in the system to push them down the rankings. There is decent depth, though: Shawaryn, Beeks, Scherff, Hernandez, and Raudes is a second tier I am happy with. Their draft pick will debut, at worst, at #5 in the rankings, and there are a few potentially available players who I would consider #2 right now. I can see your point of view and agree about the lack of bats propping up the arms status, but I don't remember being overly excited about the pitchers you mentioned, and as it was De La Rosa, whom I did like and Webster were more like AAA guys they got in the Punto deal, and I liked Barnes, but we knew Owens had pedestrian stuff and no control - it was always if he could ever throw strikes....and I don't remember shedding any tears when Ranaudo was dealt for Robbie Ross. Groome has the pedigree to be at least in the middle of the rotation. Sometimes I worry that injuries will do him in, but he's still a very promising pitcher. I like him better than I liked Ranaudo or Webster (another guy who couldn't throw strikes). I think Mata is an overachiever who keeps getting better and better. I can see him in the middle of a rotation too. Houck reminds me a bit of Barnes in that you can envision him as a high leverage reliever, but it's possible he can start. I agree that none of these guys excited me as much as Espinoza and Kopech, who ultimately will probably be the best pitcher (we used to have some poster that swooned over him) the Sox have had out of their farm system. What makes me think what I think though is that I believe given the cost commitments the Sox need to make on upcoming free agents, that Mata, Groome, and Houck will get every chance to succeed in Boston rather than being simply trade bait. I could be wrong, though. Certainly wouldn't be the first time.
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Post by James Dunne on May 3, 2018 13:03:48 GMT -5
Eh, they had Michael Bowden, Ryan Kalish, Will Middlebrooks, and Josh Reddick as well, and the '08 draft added Casey Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland along with Lavarnway. Plus, Masterson would've been a Top 100 guy at the end of '08 if he hadn't graduated. That was also when Daniel Bard put things together, and the peak of Anderson's prospect status. It doesn't look great in hindsight because a lot of those players didn't work out (basically only Reddick got anythink near his perfect world projection), but it was a better farm system at the time.
EDIT: Baseball America had both Barnes and Webster in the Top 50 in 2013, and Owens in the top 100 that year and the 50 in both 2014 and 2015. Hell, MLB.com had him 19th, which I thought was crazy at the time. Again, I think the reason people feel more excited about Mata is that there's a real chance he's the #1 prospect in the organization (if something is wrong with Groome). There isn't a Bogaerts or Betts or Devers or Benintendi to take our attention, so we focus our attention on how awesome Mata might be. But... he's still a pretty raw prospect who is very, very far away. If he has a 10.0 career WAR career I'd be thrilled.
Houck feels like Masterson with weaker control.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on May 3, 2018 13:15:38 GMT -5
It's probably close, but you're right about 2008. The more arms right now makes it way more riskier, but man the names the rattled off reminded me of a lot of heartbreak and disappointment.
The Sox do need a good year at picking talent on both sides of the draft and international free agency. The Sox can pick them for the most part. Dave can identify good young talent a lot too, I expect a trade of some sorts with JBJ in a year or two to get younger again.
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Post by Guidas on May 3, 2018 14:10:06 GMT -5
Groome/Mata/Houck is not as strong a group of prospects as Barnes/Owens/Webster/De La Rosa/Ranaudo was five years ago, and certainly weaker than the Espinoza/Kopech duo two years ago. They just don't have the excellent bats in the system to push them down the rankings. There is decent depth, though: Shawaryn, Beeks, Scherff, Hernandez, and Raudes is a second tier I am happy with. Their draft pick will debut, at worst, at #5 in the rankings, and there are a few potentially available players who I would consider #2 right now. I can see your point of view and agree about the lack of bats propping up the arms status, but I don't remember being overly excited about the pitchers you mentioned, and as it was De La Rosa, whom I did like and Webster were more like AAA guys they got in the Punto deal, and I liked Barnes, but we knew Owens had pedestrian stuff and no control - it was always if he could ever throw strikes....and I don't remember shedding any tears when Ranaudo was dealt for Robbie Ross. Groome has the pedigree to be at least in the middle of the rotation. Sometimes I worry that injuries will do him in, but he's still a very promising pitcher. I like him better than I liked Ranaudo or Webster (another guy who couldn't throw strikes). I think Mata is an overachiever who keeps getting better and better. I can see him in the middle of a rotation too. Houck reminds me a bit of Barnes in that you can envision him as a high leverage reliever, but it's possible he can start. I agree that none of these guys excited me as much as Espinoza and Kopech, who ultimately will probably be the best pitcher (we used to have some poster that swooned over him) the Sox have had out of their farm system. What makes me think what I think though is that I believe given the cost commitments the Sox need to make on upcoming free agents, that Mata, Groome, and Houck will get every chance to succeed in Boston rather than being simply trade bait. I could be wrong, though. Certainly wouldn't be the first time. I tested positive for Kopech swoon after seeing him live. I was the one yelling hold on to this guy now matter what. Relented (a bit) when they got Sale for him. Still think he’ll be a solid 2. Don’t see any 2s right now in Sox system, though Groome has that ceiling. Everyone else looks like a 4 or less as far as I can tell, but I’ve not seen as many of them live yet as I did a couple years ago. Beeks has completely surprised me with his performance but I’d have to see him succeed consistently at the MLB level to believe he’s still more than a 5/spot starter.
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 4, 2018 9:55:51 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on May 4, 2018 10:12:10 GMT -5
Former Sox draftees in the BA 500: Austin Bergner (16), D.J. Artis (15), Oraj Anu (17 - looks like he went to JC instead of FIU).
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Post by James Dunne on May 4, 2018 10:41:51 GMT -5
What? Are you somehow not a fan of navigating away for a moment, and then upon going back having to hit "See More" 15 times to get back to where you were? Because I find that very user friendly and not-at-all rage inducing.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 4, 2018 11:24:16 GMT -5
The worst part is that it is now impossible to find anything predating the new layout. I deleted about 10 now-useless BA bookmarks the other day.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,322
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Post by radiohix on May 4, 2018 13:09:49 GMT -5
I don't think we're appreciating Vermontsox work of collecting all these draft informations enough! Big up my friend!
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