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4/2-4/3 Red Sox @ Marlins Series Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 4, 2018 7:57:39 GMT -5
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Post by m1keyboots on Apr 4, 2018 8:12:25 GMT -5
I may be mistaken, but didn't the Creator and his assistant /co creator get jobs with major league clubs?
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 4, 2018 9:07:52 GMT -5
Greg Rybarczyk did indeed get a job with a major league club. He's the Senior Analyst for R&D for the Boston Red Sox. He'd previously been an employee in some capacity (possibly a consultant?), but it obviously leads me to wonder if the Red Sox are having him do something proprietary specifically related to the HitTracker.
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Post by coachmac on Apr 4, 2018 10:25:51 GMT -5
Guys, I have a confession to make - I think I’m in danger of liking this team. Of course, they’ll probably lose 10 straight now that I said that, but it feels good to get it off my chest. Even worse, I'm worried that I think the manager might be competent. We're reduced to freaking out about that one time the bullpen gave up a run. Thinking about switching to the Yankees just so I have something to complain about again. Two disclaimers,I thought Farell should go and I'm a huge Cora fan. However I wonder how the narrative would change on this site if a Farrell led team returned from the opening road trip having the following things happen: 1.Lose a 4 run lead in the 8th without using Kimbrel; 2.Have 7 runners thrown out on the bases.(thrown out by 10 feet at home,Devers out at 3rd, Bogaerts doubled off first from outfield,2 picked off at first,caught stealing and Bradley out at home.) I don't fault anyone steal attempts or Bradley going on contact; 3.Keeping a rookie lefthander,warming him up but don't use him against left-handed batter; 4.Failing to pinch hit for Leon with runners in scoring position in a 1 run game. 5.Pulling Sale after 84 pitches(6 innings 1 run),pulling Price after 77 pitches(7 innings,0 runs) I don't think anyone would be calling Farrell competent.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 4, 2018 10:42:12 GMT -5
Even worse, I'm worried that I think the manager might be competent. We're reduced to freaking out about that one time the bullpen gave up a run. Thinking about switching to the Yankees just so I have something to complain about again. Two disclaimers,I thought Farell should go and I'm a huge Cora fan. However I wonder how the narrative would change on this site if a Farrell led team returned from the opening road trip having the following things happen: 1.Lose a 4 run lead in the 8th without using Kimbrel; 2.Have 7 runners thrown out on the bases.(thrown out by 10 feet at home,Devers out at 3rd, Bogaerts doubled off first from outfield,2 picked off at first,caught stealing and Bradley out at home.) I don't fault anyone steal attempts or Bradley going on contact; 3.Keeping a rookie lefthander,warming him up but don't use him against left-handed batter; 4.Failing to pinch hit for Leon with runners in scoring position in a 1 run game. 5.Pulling Sale after 84 pitches(6 innings 1 run),pulling Price after 77 pitches(7 innings,0 runs) I don't think anyone would be calling Farrell competent. I'd have defended numbers 3 and 5 if Farrell had done them. Particularly given how Sale faltered at the end of last season and Price coming off an injury-shortened season. It will be a fine line to walk with Sale between winning the game at hand and keeping him fresh for the season, and that is one of the things I'm really happy to have Alex Cora managing rather than John Farrell. The Poyner thing was a nuanced decision by Cora - he would have used him with two outs and two on, but he wasn't going to bring him in to make his debut with the bases loaded. I think that's a sensible approach. Farrell would've taken a TON of crap for #1, but I really think that overlooks how fast Kelly melted down and how realistic it would've been to warm up even a healthy, mid-season form Kimbrel. I'd have defended him on that even though it was harder to give him the benefit of the doubt on pitcher usage. #2 is fair I guess, but there's a culture of over-aggressiveness on the basepaths that is a carryover from 2017 and I'm willing to give Cora a honeymoon on it. #4 was a mistake, especially on a roster with three catchers. No defense for it. It is also the sort of thing that, if it's the worst mistake a manager is making, you're in good shape. It doesn't absolve it from criticism, but I think reasonable people can disagree on it.
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Post by danredhawk on Apr 4, 2018 10:50:40 GMT -5
Even worse, I'm worried that I think the manager might be competent. We're reduced to freaking out about that one time the bullpen gave up a run. Thinking about switching to the Yankees just so I have something to complain about again. Two disclaimers,I thought Farell should go and I'm a huge Cora fan. However I wonder how the narrative would change on this site if a Farrell led team returned from the opening road trip having the following things happen: 1.Lose a 4 run lead in the 8th without using Kimbrel; 2.Have 7 runners thrown out on the bases.(thrown out by 10 feet at home,Devers out at 3rd, Bogaerts doubled off first from outfield,2 picked off at first,caught stealing and Bradley out at home.) I don't fault anyone steal attempts or Bradley going on contact; 3.Keeping a rookie lefthander,warming him up but don't use him against left-handed batter; 4.Failing to pinch hit for Leon with runners in scoring position in a 1 run game. 5.Pulling Sale after 84 pitches(6 innings 1 run),pulling Price after 77 pitches(7 innings,0 runs) I don't think anyone would be calling Farrell competent. Farrell would have done this after - what - six years of MLB managerial experience and a track record of making these mistakes in Boston? Cora after six games...? Cora will make some mistakes - but has a lot of the right ideas and will likely learn and get better as he goes. If he keeps repeating mistakes later this year or down the line than he'll deserve the criticism at that point. The base running, for example, seems to me to be guys caught between what they were told all of last year and learning what's expected of them this season. Give it some time... Finally, like it or not he's had a blueprint for how he wanted to handle the early part of the season. There are times many, myself included would have liked to see him deviate from that plan - but he knows what he wants to accomplish and he's sticking to the long game...
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 4, 2018 10:57:59 GMT -5
I'll also note that, by far, my biggest criticism of Farrell was that he left his starters in too long because he managed them the way he wanted to be managed - that the game belonged to the pitcher, rather than the team. It led to things like Rick Porcello leading the AL in batters faced in 2017 despite the fact that he kept melting down the third (And fourth) times through the order. Not only did Farrell make those mistakes, he kept making those mistakes constantly.
While it's obviously too early to say that Cora has a better feel for that with any certainty, the early returns on that aspect of managing are as positive as could be humanly possible.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2018 12:05:16 GMT -5
According to Pete Abraham, E-Rod felt "dominating" yesterday and will start Sunday if he feels good today.
This is the game that was going to be the last start by a depth-chart guy, either Velazquez or Johnson. (Abraham, with characteristic idiocy, reports that the two other options are Velazquez and Sale on regular rest. There was never any talk of going to a 3-man rotation because of the 3 off days. That Cora yanked Sale after 5 innings makes it pretty obvious that they'll use the off days to get him 2 extra days rest.)
If they decide today that E-Rod is going Sunday, then that gives them a 9-man pen opening the homestand, so there's no reason not to option Walden and recall Lin.
And it would also mean the start of the Brian Johnson, LHR era. He's been great in his career with RISP but it sure seems like a SSS fluke, especially since it's all come with runners on 1st and 2nd or the bases full, and he's been really bad with just a man on 1st (so it doesn't seem like his stuff is better from the stretch. He's also been bad with a man on 1st and 2 outs, so it's not from trying to induce ground balls to get the DP). His OPS allowed gets progressively better in each 25-pitch chunk, so that's not encouraging. (That split was obviously even worse before his start Monday.)
Pomeranz should be ready for the last game of the Yankees series a week from tomorrow, and they'll have the option of him or Porcello with the other starting the next game, against the O's.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 4, 2018 12:19:44 GMT -5
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Post by johnmark on Apr 4, 2018 12:28:28 GMT -5
According to Pete Abraham, E-Rod felt "dominating" yesterday and will start Sunday if he feels good today. This is the game that was going to be the last start by a depth-chart guy, either Velazquez or Johnson. (Abraham, with characteristic idiocy, reports that the two other options are Velazquez and Sale on regular rest. There was never any talk of going to a 3-man rotation because of the 3 off days. That Cora yanked Sale after 5 innings makes it pretty obvious that they'll use the off days to get him 2 extra days rest.) If they decide today that E-Rod is going Sunday, then that gives them a 9-man pen opening the homestand, so there's no reason not to option Walden and recall Lin. And it would also mean the start of the Brian Johnson, LHR era. He's been great in his career with RISP but it sure seems like a SSS fluke, especially since it's all come with runners on 1st and 2nd or the bases full, and he's been really bad with just a man on 1st (so it doesn't seem like his stuff is better from the stretch. He's also been bad with a man on 1st and 2 outs, so it's not from trying to induce ground balls to get the DP). His OPS allowed gets progressively better in each 25-pitch chunk, so that's not encouraging. (That split was obviously even worse before his start Monday.) Pomeranz should be ready for the last game of the Yankees series a week from tomorrow, and they'll have the option of him or Porcello with the other starting the next game, against the O's. If Erod and Pom are healthy it becomes a no brainer. They are in and Johnson and Velaz out. Hector to Paw I would think and Johnson to the pen most likely. Not sure if Johnson would just become an inning eater for the team, but he has never pitched out of the pen.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 4, 2018 12:35:02 GMT -5
Lol...man, you worry too much. The Sox won both games on the road. They won pretty handily yesterday and ground one out today with Sale struggling with his command. They did what they should do more often than not: win both games. The manner of those victories is irrelevant, for the most part. You’re trying too hard to come up with something negative, man. No more reading CHB for you! If it was ANYONE but the Marlins I would agree with you Telson. Lol. This might be the worst team this league has seen since that Detriot team we saw all those like 13 years ago when they lost 110+ games. Well, if my calculations are correct, for a .700 team vs a .300 team, the odds of the better team winning both games is 49%. The odds of the worse team winning both is 9%. And the last 42% they tie. I doubt the Sox are that good or the Marlins that bad (especially road/home), so no matter what, the Sox beat the odds by winning both games. That’s statistical fact. Take comfort in that.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 4, 2018 12:35:53 GMT -5
I'm actually encouraged that Cora will use Johnson as an actual long man unlike Farrell. Anytime a starter doesn't have it, I bet Cora will have a quick hook to limit their innings and let Johnson pitch 3-4 innings.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 4, 2018 12:36:46 GMT -5
I think trying to decipher proper bullpen mgt is mostly fool's errand. It is great fodder for message boards and folks, like us, who aren't making the decisions to debate about. But where is the line between good and bad? Between quick hooks or not? Can it really be streamlined into proper decision making. I just don't think it can. We saw again last night that Cora relied on Kelly for 2 innings and over 30 pitches for the 2nd time this year (I believe). Where is the data to support that decision? You had Barnes get 2 outs, then give up 2 walks and a rope. Now we are tied. How is the manager supposed to prevent that? This is an interesting read about Kapler, who is finding out that a new way may be very difficult to define and implement, and this is a guy who is supposedly a forward thinker. www.si.com/mlb/2018/04/04/gabe-kapler-philadelphia-phillies-bullpenI will say that i think that this reliance on bullpen arms and keeping starters innings down is an unproven, and quite possibly, terrible strategic decision as it relates to team's goal of winning a world series. There will be repercussions at the end of the year for bullpen overuse as much as there could be for starter overuse. My thing is we need to get away from this 25 man roster rule. Increase the roster to 27 and dress only 25...whatever. Just abolish or change the options so players aren't overworked. Then we have the best chance for the best baseball to watch.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 4, 2018 12:46:28 GMT -5
I'm actually encouraged that Cora will use Johnson as an actual long man unlike Farrell. Anytime a starter doesn't have it, I bet Cora will have a quick hook to limit their innings and let Johnson pitch 3-4 innings. I am not to pick on you, but can you explain why you think that using a pitcher who has yet to prove he has major league talent (consistently that is) would be better used in this role, as it relates to winning a division....a pennant....world series. I mean can anyone prove any instance where a long reliever has had such a profound effect on a team's chance of winning a world series?
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 4, 2018 12:51:58 GMT -5
I'm actually encouraged that Cora will use Johnson as an actual long man unlike Farrell. Anytime a starter doesn't have it, I bet Cora will have a quick hook to limit their innings and let Johnson pitch 3-4 innings. I am not to pick on you, but can you explain why you think that using a pitcher who has yet to prove he has major league talent (consistently that is) would be better used in this role, as it relates to winning a division....a pennant....world series. I mean can anyone prove any instance where a long reliever has had such a profound effect on a team's chance of winning a world series? Teams don't generally win or lose the World Series based on the impact of their 22nd-best player or whatever, but Yusmeiro Petit in 2014 comes immediately to mind. Generally, though, it is a broader point about maximizing the utility of the whole roster. Not being too slow with the hook on Porcello, not pitching Tazawa every day, etc, because the manager is comfortable getting multiple innings out of the long reliever.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 4, 2018 12:52:40 GMT -5
I'm actually encouraged that Cora will use Johnson as an actual long man unlike Farrell. Anytime a starter doesn't have it, I bet Cora will have a quick hook to limit their innings and let Johnson pitch 3-4 innings. I am not to pick on you, but can you explain why you think that using a pitcher who has yet to prove he has major league talent (consistently that is) would be better used in this role, as it relates to winning a division....a pennant....world series. I mean can anyone prove any instance where a long reliever has had such a profound effect on a team's chance of winning a world series? Well, considering how worn down the entire pitching staff was last year, how about the 2017 Red Sox as a team that would have benefited pretty nicely from a long reliever used correctly? A starting caliber pitcher as a long reliever can save the rest of the bullpen. Too often, the Red Sox would use every pitcher in the bullpen when a starter had a bad game. When Sale clearly didn't have it last night, it would have been a great game to bring Johnson in early and let Sale stop wasting pitches that aren't that effective and get more rest. Having a more fresh Sale in October would be a big benefit for the team.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 4, 2018 13:00:46 GMT -5
I am not to pick on you, but can you explain why you think that using a pitcher who has yet to prove he has major league talent (consistently that is) would be better used in this role, as it relates to winning a division....a pennant....world series. I mean can anyone prove any instance where a long reliever has had such a profound effect on a team's chance of winning a world series? Well, considering how worn down the entire pitching staff was last year, how about the 2017 Red Sox as a team that would have benefited pretty nicely from a long reliever used correctly? A starting caliber pitcher as a long reliever can save the rest of the bullpen. Too often, the Red Sox would use every pitcher in the bullpen when a starter had a bad game. When Sale clearly didn't have it last night, it would have been a great game to bring Johnson in early and let Sale stop wasting pitches that aren't that effective and get more rest. Having a more fresh Sale in October would be a big benefit for the team. I guess the Sox will be able to double up on the long reliever soon, perhaps have two piggyback type of starters/reliever hybrids once Johnson is back in the pen and Steven Wright, if the rotation remains healthy and intact, goes to the bullpen. Given the uncertainty of the setup men, the Sox might need that, a pitcher who can pitch the 6th, 7th, and 8th.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 4, 2018 13:00:47 GMT -5
I am not to pick on you, but can you explain why you think that using a pitcher who has yet to prove he has major league talent (consistently that is) would be better used in this role, as it relates to winning a division....a pennant....world series. I mean can anyone prove any instance where a long reliever has had such a profound effect on a team's chance of winning a world series? Teams don't generally win or lose the World Series based on the impact of their 22nd-best player or whatever, but Yusmeiro Petit in 2014 comes immediately to mind. Thanks, and I appreciate that. A lot of you guys are smart enough about this stuff to be able make a point like that. But if I was to respond that Justin Verlander was the difference maker in last year's world series run, I think we all would recognize why that was. They can't all be like him, for sure, but will teams stifle that kind of development with bullpen overuse? More importantly, is there other ways without relying on managerial inclinations to get the best results.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2018 13:04:35 GMT -5
I am not to pick on you, but can you explain why you think that using a pitcher who has yet to prove he has major league talent (consistently that is) would be better used in this role, as it relates to winning a division....a pennant....world series. I mean can anyone prove any instance where a long reliever has had such a profound effect on a team's chance of winning a world series? Well, considering how worn down the entire pitching staff was last year, how about the 2017 Red Sox as a team that would have benefited pretty nicely from a long reliever used correctly? A starting caliber pitcher as a long reliever can save the rest of the bullpen. Too often, the Red Sox would use every pitcher in the bullpen when a starter had a bad game. When Sale clearly didn't have it last night, it would have been a great game to bring Johnson in early and let Sale stop wasting pitches that aren't that effective and get more rest. Having a more fresh Sale in October would be a big benefit for the team. Well that's basically what he did with Poyner, right? Except that with Johnson, maybe you let him go three so long as he's going well. That pushes everyone else down the line. That said, I always have been kind of skeptical of how a team keeps a true long reliever when its starting rotation isn't garbage. Seeing Kyle Snyder during the Rays series reminded me of when he was the "long man" and would (seemingly at least) go a week or more between appearances.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 4, 2018 13:11:07 GMT -5
Well, considering how worn down the entire pitching staff was last year, how about the 2017 Red Sox as a team that would have benefited pretty nicely from a long reliever used correctly? A starting caliber pitcher as a long reliever can save the rest of the bullpen. Too often, the Red Sox would use every pitcher in the bullpen when a starter had a bad game. When Sale clearly didn't have it last night, it would have been a great game to bring Johnson in early and let Sale stop wasting pitches that aren't that effective and get more rest. Having a more fresh Sale in October would be a big benefit for the team. Well that's basically what he did with Poyner, right? Except that with Johnson, maybe you let him go three so long as he's going well. That pushes everyone else down the line. That said, I always have been kind of skeptical of how a team keeps a true long reliever when its starting rotation isn't garbage. Seeing Kyle Snyder during the Rays series reminded me of when he was the "long man" and would (seemingly at least) go a week or more between appearances. Yeah, he did it with Poyner which is why I'm hopeful. Johnson is better. The rotation is great, but there are some games where a starter should just get a quick hook instead of sacrificing himself as an innings eater (hello 2017 Rick Porcello). That's way easier to do with Johnson out there as an option. Hopefully it keeps him stretched out a little too.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2018 13:12:07 GMT -5
Teams don't generally win or lose the World Series based on the impact of their 22nd-best player or whatever, but Yusmeiro Petit in 2014 comes immediately to mind. Thanks, and I appreciate that. A lot of you guys are smart enough about this stuff to be able make a point like that. But if I was to respond that Justin Verlander was the difference maker in last year's world series run, I think we all would recognize why that was. They can't all be like him, for sure, but will teams stifle that kind of development with bullpen overuse? More importantly, is there other ways without relying on managerial inclinations to get the best results. Well, first of all, just because a decision isn't necessarily the one upon which a World Series win turns does not mean it should be ignored. Literally nobody is saying that how the team deploys Brian Johnson once the rotation is back to full health is the call upon which the season turns. That said, as we often make a point of when discussing decisions on the margins like DFA decisions and things like that, good organizations will generally make principled, if not necessarily always correct, decisions in those situations. When you have someone like Johnson, yes, they should probably try to keep him instead of just cutting him loose, even if that means putting him in the bullpen. Maybe that single decision isn't the one that decides the success/failure of the season, but perhaps the way in which the organization manages their arms and keeps as much depth as possible becomes important in sum down the line. Maybe there's some game in which the Sox are getting killed early, but Johnson goes out and eats up 4 or 5 innings out of the bullpen, and the next night they win because their bullpen is more rested. Again, nobody is predicting that Brian Johnson, long man, is the reason they win the World Series. Rather, it's that an organization being operated correctly will make the right calls in setting that up and using him correctly as a symptom of their tendency to make such correct calls over the longer haul, thus setting the team up for a better season.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 4, 2018 13:18:19 GMT -5
Well, considering how worn down the entire pitching staff was last year, how about the 2017 Red Sox as a team that would have benefited pretty nicely from a long reliever used correctly? A starting caliber pitcher as a long reliever can save the rest of the bullpen. Too often, the Red Sox would use every pitcher in the bullpen when a starter had a bad game. When Sale clearly didn't have it last night, it would have been a great game to bring Johnson in early and let Sale stop wasting pitches that aren't that effective and get more rest. Having a more fresh Sale in October would be a big benefit for the team. I guess the Sox will be able to double up on the long reliever soon, perhaps have two piggyback type of starters/reliever hybrids once Johnson is back in the pen and Steven Wright, if the rotation remains healthy and intact, goes to the bullpen. Given the uncertainty of the setup men, the Sox might need that, a pitcher who can pitch the 6th, 7th, and 8th. Wright's effectiveness is such an unknown at this point. He has barely started to throw off a mound and only has 8 starts since 8/2016. Given that knuckleball pitchers are so unique and mysterious, there's no way of knowing how quickly he'll get his perfect release point back close to 100% consistency because it's the bad knuckleballs that end up as home runs.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Apr 4, 2018 13:20:57 GMT -5
I remember that last year HV didn't have an off season so to speak and they tried to manage his workload in ST, maybe the regular rest this year is the reason for the improvement of his stuff?
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 4, 2018 13:43:49 GMT -5
Thanks, and I appreciate that. A lot of you guys are smart enough about this stuff to be able make a point like that. But if I was to respond that Justin Verlander was the difference maker in last year's world series run, I think we all would recognize why that was. They can't all be like him, for sure, but will teams stifle that kind of development with bullpen overuse? More importantly, is there other ways without relying on managerial inclinations to get the best results. Well, first of all, just because a decision isn't necessarily the one upon which a World Series win turns does not mean it should be ignored. Literally nobody is saying that how the team deploys Brian Johnson once the rotation is back to full health is the call upon which the season turns. That said, as we often make a point of when discussing decisions on the margins like DFA decisions and things like that, good organizations will generally make principled, if not necessarily always correct, decisions in those situations. When you have someone like Johnson, yes, they should probably try to keep him instead of just cutting him loose, even if that means putting him in the bullpen. Maybe that single decision isn't the one that decides the success/failure of the season, but perhaps the way in which the organization manages their arms and keeps as much depth as possible becomes important in sum down the line. Maybe there's some game in which the Sox are getting killed early, but Johnson goes out and eats up 4 or 5 innings out of the bullpen, and the next night they win because their bullpen is more rested. Again, nobody is predicting that Brian Johnson, long man, is the reason they win the World Series. Rather, it's that an organization being operated correctly will make the right calls in setting that up and using him correctly as a symptom of their tendency to make such correct calls over the longer haul, thus setting the team up for a better season. I think we are kind of making the same point. If I understand correctly, your talking about strategic decisions (season) as opposed to tactical (in game). Let's take the Sox use of Sale. He is a pitcher that has shown fatigue during the season so it appears the Sox are going to manage that, rightfully so. Does that mean the same should be for Price, Pomeranz? If it does, will that cost them the division, pennant? There are philosophical influences at play here, and I am not sure that that should be. I tried to point out that I think MLB needs structural changes in these areas. I just don't feel like we are getting the best product watching pitchers who weren't good enough to be starters be so influential in winning games.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2018 13:46:17 GMT -5
I think I have no idea what your point is, so I'll just step back.
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