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4/2-4/3 Red Sox @ Marlins Series Thread
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 4, 2018 13:50:54 GMT -5
The regular season in sports isn’t for getting the best product.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 4, 2018 13:54:39 GMT -5
Well, first of all, just because a decision isn't necessarily the one upon which a World Series win turns does not mean it should be ignored. Literally nobody is saying that how the team deploys Brian Johnson once the rotation is back to full health is the call upon which the season turns. That said, as we often make a point of when discussing decisions on the margins like DFA decisions and things like that, good organizations will generally make principled, if not necessarily always correct, decisions in those situations. When you have someone like Johnson, yes, they should probably try to keep him instead of just cutting him loose, even if that means putting him in the bullpen. Maybe that single decision isn't the one that decides the success/failure of the season, but perhaps the way in which the organization manages their arms and keeps as much depth as possible becomes important in sum down the line. Maybe there's some game in which the Sox are getting killed early, but Johnson goes out and eats up 4 or 5 innings out of the bullpen, and the next night they win because their bullpen is more rested. Again, nobody is predicting that Brian Johnson, long man, is the reason they win the World Series. Rather, it's that an organization being operated correctly will make the right calls in setting that up and using him correctly as a symptom of their tendency to make such correct calls over the longer haul, thus setting the team up for a better season. I think we are kind of making the same point. If I understand correctly, your talking about strategic decisions (season) as opposed to tactical (in game). Let's take the Sox use of Sale. He is a pitcher that has shown fatigue during the season so it appears the Sox are going to manage that, rightfully so. Does that mean the same should be for Price, Pomeranz? If it does, will that cost them the division, pennant? There are philosophical influences at play here, and I am not sure that that should be. I tried to point out that I think MLB needs structural changes in these areas. I just don't feel like we are getting the best product watching pitchers who weren't good enough to be starters be so influential in winning games. I feel like we didn't get the best Red Sox team in the playoffs last year. I'm all for shortening the season back to 154 games, but that's not going to happen.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 4, 2018 13:56:01 GMT -5
I think I have no idea what your point is, so I'll just step back. If it got tangential, sorry for that. My basic point is that arguing who or what is best bullpen mgt is kind of farcical. There are too many factors. Personally, I think that managers cant do it properly, over the long run.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 4, 2018 13:56:53 GMT -5
I think we are kind of making the same point. If I understand correctly, your talking about strategic decisions (season) as opposed to tactical (in game). Let's take the Sox use of Sale. He is a pitcher that has shown fatigue during the season so it appears the Sox are going to manage that, rightfully so. Does that mean the same should be for Price, Pomeranz? If it does, will that cost them the division, pennant? There are philosophical influences at play here, and I am not sure that that should be. I tried to point out that I think MLB needs structural changes in these areas. I just don't feel like we are getting the best product watching pitchers who weren't good enough to be starters be so influential in winning games. I feel like we didn't get the best Red Sox team in the playoffs last year. I'm all for shortening the season back to 154 games, but that's not going to happen. I agree. That is the kind of structural change that is necessary.
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Post by soxjim on Apr 5, 2018 0:19:26 GMT -5
Well, first of all, just because a decision isn't necessarily the one upon which a World Series win turns does not mean it should be ignored. Literally nobody is saying that how the team deploys Brian Johnson once the rotation is back to full health is the call upon which the season turns. That said, as we often make a point of when discussing decisions on the margins like DFA decisions and things like that, good organizations will generally make principled, if not necessarily always correct, decisions in those situations. When you have someone like Johnson, yes, they should probably try to keep him instead of just cutting him loose, even if that means putting him in the bullpen. Maybe that single decision isn't the one that decides the success/failure of the season, but perhaps the way in which the organization manages their arms and keeps as much depth as possible becomes important in sum down the line. Maybe there's some game in which the Sox are getting killed early, but Johnson goes out and eats up 4 or 5 innings out of the bullpen, and the next night they win because their bullpen is more rested. Again, nobody is predicting that Brian Johnson, long man, is the reason they win the World Series. Rather, it's that an organization being operated correctly will make the right calls in setting that up and using him correctly as a symptom of their tendency to make such correct calls over the longer haul, thus setting the team up for a better season. I think we are kind of making the same point. If I understand correctly, your talking about strategic decisions (season) as opposed to tactical (in game). Let's take the Sox use of Sale. He is a pitcher that has shown fatigue during the season so it appears the Sox are going to manage that, rightfully so. Does that mean the same should be for Price, Pomeranz? If it does, will that cost them the division, pennant? There are philosophical influences at play here, and I am not sure that that should be. I tried to point out that I think MLB needs structural changes in these areas. I just don't feel like we are getting the best product watching pitchers who weren't good enough to be starters be so influential in winning games. 1-- I agree with your para 1. Every game and every year big decisions made that can affect games. Therefore it might. It also might help them win a world series. It;'s why you watch. The unknown. 1b-- In terms of philsophical what I find fun is the difference already between Cora and Boone. Boone used stats of Robertson vs Smoak though only 5 at bats as his rule why he'll use the stats. Cora has said he wouldn't if just a few at bats. Who is right? Will that belief alone cost a few games or even one big game - enough to win or lose a w/s? 2-- I don't agree mlb needs to make the changes you suggest. IMO we are seeing a fine product. 3-- In terms of whether mangers can manage the bullpen properly in the long run- imo it's the wrong question/or point to worry about. I think it's better to ask if the manager can do the following--> put the right players in at the right times in order to win a w/s or 2 or 3 or 4!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 5, 2018 2:52:03 GMT -5
According to Pete Abraham, E-Rod felt "dominating" yesterday and will start Sunday if he feels good today. This is the game that was going to be the last start by a depth-chart guy, either Velazquez or Johnson. (Abraham, with characteristic idiocy, reports that the two other options are Velazquez and Sale on regular rest. There was never any talk of going to a 3-man rotation because of the 3 off days. That Cora yanked Sale after 5 innings makes it pretty obvious that they'll use the off days to get him 2 extra days rest.) Of course, I missed the most obvious reason this is completely idiotic: Sale has been lined up from the get-go to pitch the opening game of the Yankees series. Of course, you'd move him up in the rotation on short notice to pitch against the Rays instead, rather than give Velazquez or Johnson a chance to prove they can allow just 1 run again. How lazy are you if you're writing an article about the upcoming Red Sox rotation and you don't even bother to look at their upcoming schedule? How disinterested in the game are you, if you're not curious as to what the best rotation would be? If I had less on my plate I would e-mail the Globe Sports Editor, cc:ing whoever his boss is, with ever demonstrable mistake or absurdity that Cafardo and Abraham put into print. They're stealing their paychecks and it doesn't appear as if their editor reads their copy.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 5, 2018 4:12:16 GMT -5
I hope that you are right...that would add a lot of value and reduce acid indigestion! Well, [ Hembree's] K-BB has gone from 5.7 to 19.2% in three years, his BABIP last year was an incredibly irregular .360 (career .313), his SwStr% has gone 8.9-9.7-14.1% over three years, and batters are swinging at stuff outside the zone more (25.6-27.5-34.9%). So he’s fooling more hitters, too...and burying his breaking stuff. Plus, his CB this year has better separation from the SL (CB velo is down to 75). I think he’s primed for a breakout, like well under 3 ERA, K/9 in the 11 range, and a WHIP under 1.10. If you measure vertical break by difference from his FB (whose vertical break is unchanged) and horizontal break absolutely -- which is the way you want to do it, I'm pretty sure -- his slider has gone from 6.7" of break last year to 9.9", which is to say 48% more. And it's been off the scale effective. His percentage of all pitches that are outside-the-zone swings-and-misses since 2015: 9.1%, 10.8%, 15.8%, 21.6%. To put his SSS from this year in perspective, it would have ranked 5th last year out of 274 pitchers with 60+ IP, after Gregerson, Kimbrel, Kluber, and Robertson. Whereas his number from 2 years ago would rank 160th. He's a completely different pitcher. He currently leads the bullpen in every major category: ERA-, FIP-, xFIP- / SIERA, and WPA if you adjust for LI. It's really promising. The competition for the 7th and 8th inning roles will be interesting. It also gives us 13 pitchers with MLB cred, none of whom you'd want to trade. If everyone's healthy at once, the three guys who could be optioned are Barnes, Thornburg, and E-Rod. That Thornburg has an option to burn might become important: there's no need to call him up when his rehab is done if he still looks rusty.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 5, 2018 6:04:31 GMT -5
I almost said this a couple weeks ago when people were mentioning Hembree simply as a 6/7 inning guy who can go multiple innings. I think he can be more than that. He’s a good pitcher and it would not shock me in the least to see him as the go to setup man by years end.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 5, 2018 7:16:29 GMT -5
Three things.
Xander being doubled up at first keeps being brought up as a major base running blunder. My thoughts when the play happened is that Devers hit the ball so hard that it put XB in a tough position. First of all it looked like it was going to fall in but then carried further because he crushed it, 2nd of all that all happens in less than 2 seconds and last if XB had played it safe and the ball was short hopped, very close by the way, then he could have been thrown out at 2nd. Bottom line is the ball was crushed and it wasn't an easy decision for XB. Devers has had a few of those this year where I swear the ball must have been screaming for mercy, he can really put a hurting on the ball. 2nd Historically the long reliever was the weakest pitcher on a MLB staff so the connotation is that he is a mop up guy. What has been discussed and is being done by some teams is the strategy of having the starter going thru a lineup twice rather than 3 times. The positives to this are obvious statistically when done prudently. And by prudently I don't mean all the time but in moderation and with some consistency. If you have guys like Wright, Johnson and Velazquez you can do this and look at it more as a piggy back starter rather than a long reliever, mop up guy. IMO they are all starters on most teams in baseball and 2 of these three should be used in this manner. I think the Sox should and maybe already do plan on using this strategy all season. At least it looks that way. 3rd Just a thought but. I think something can be said for the historical number of pitches a pitcher throws vs the quality of the batters faced in todays game. Is it all just arm strength or is it that the hitters today are so much better you can't get away with throwing a meatball up there on your 130th pitch of a game? If with the fact that training of today makes all athletes stronger and faster why would pitchers be regressing in regards to pitches thrown? Doesn't make sense. What does make sense is that hitters today are too good to slip subpar pitches by without getting hit hard. So the idea of piggy backing more often makes sense both in regards to quality pitches thrown after 100 pitches but also having a batter see your arsenal 3 times along with keeping your starters fresher for the long haul. The Sox are in a great position to test this strategy out, in moderation.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 5, 2018 7:33:43 GMT -5
Boone used stats of Robertson vs Smoak though only 5 at bats as his rule why he'll use the stats. Cora has said he wouldn't if just a few at bats. Who is right? Was this meant to be rhetorical? Because it has an answer, and it's Cora. And if the Yankees manager is really going to be going to matchup strategies based on five-at-bat samples this season then this is going to be my favorite baseball season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 5, 2018 11:19:05 GMT -5
I almost said this a couple weeks ago when people were mentioning Hembree simply as a 6/7 inning guy who can go multiple innings. I think he can be more than that. He’s a good pitcher and it would not shock me in the least to see him as the go to setup man by years end. I like Hembree, but I'll hold the brakes a little when it comes to him. The early returns on his stuff might be great in the beginning of the year when he's fresh and strong, but we will see what he looks like come July. He was a guy that got bombed last year when hitters made contact off of him. He also was horrible with runners on base last year because he got hit hard. I would personally like to see Cora turn him into a one or a one plus inning reliever and limit his appearances to keep his stuff fresh and his arm in good shape. He probably gets hurt more often when he's going deeper into games and getting used more often. Something Farrell kept doing with Hembree, running him into the ground. This is one of the reasons why I'm excited to see Johnson go to the bullpen. If they give Johnson the innings, then they won't need Hembree for those multi-inning stints.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 5, 2018 11:31:32 GMT -5
Re Johnson as a long reliever -- it works if he's also the primary LHR specialist. He has great platoon splits in the minors and tremendous ones in his SSS in MLB: 21 PA, 3 singles, walk, 5 K's.
That's a .159 wOBA against a group of 7 hitters who have a collective career 89 wRC+ against LHP (weighted by his PA against them). And he's been tougher on the good hitters: the three guys who have been above-average, Cano (106), Kyle Seager (100), and Odubel Harrera (89) are 0/10 with 3 K (Cano 1 and Seager 2). (Admittedly Cano and Seager had 3 long fly ball outs against him.)
The mediocre guys are 1/8, BB, 2 K, and the guy who can't hit lefties at all, Jarrod Dyson, went 2/3 (one was a swinging bunt, but the other was the only hard-hit single he's allowed).
The mlb splits are much more relevant here, but the MLB results don't contradict them at all.
I'd put even less stock in his great RISP splits in MLB, but again, it doesn't contradict the idea that he can pitch in high leverage.
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ericmvan
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Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 5, 2018 11:38:07 GMT -5
I almost said this a couple weeks ago when people were mentioning Hembree simply as a 6/7 inning guy who can go multiple innings. I think he can be more than that. He’s a good pitcher and it would not shock me in the least to see him as the go to setup man by years end. I like Hembree, but I'll hold the brakes a little when it comes to him. The early returns on his stuff might be great in the beginning of the year when he's fresh and strong, but we will see what he looks like come July. He was a guy that got bombed last year when hitters made contact off of him. He also was horrible with runners on base last year because he got hit hard. I would personally like to see Cora turn him into a one or a one plus inning reliever and limit his appearances to keep his stuff fresh and his arm in good shape. He probably gets hurt more often when he's going deeper into games and getting used more often. Something Farrell kept doing with Hembree, running him into the ground. This is one of the reasons why I'm excited to see Johnson go to the bullpen. If they give Johnson the innings, then they won't need Hembree for those multi-inning stints. Being fresh and strong has nothing to do with his slider breaking 50% more (there was no reduction in break last year after the first two months), and his slider breaking 50% more has everything to do with his improved success. He's almost certainly throwing the pitch differently. Now, if you had said that we have to wait until hitters realize his slider now breaks much more and start laying off it a bit, that's a good caveat. But a lot of hitters never adjust to great sliders.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 5, 2018 11:45:46 GMT -5
I hope you're right, but we will see.
I'll take him over Joe Kelly at this point. At least he can consistently throw strikes.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 5, 2018 11:49:14 GMT -5
I almost said this a couple weeks ago when people were mentioning Hembree simply as a 6/7 inning guy who can go multiple innings. I think he can be more than that. He’s a good pitcher and it would not shock me in the least to see him as the go to setup man by years end. I like Hembree, but I'll hold the brakes a little when it comes to him. The early returns on his stuff might be great in the beginning of the year when he's fresh and strong, but we will see what he looks like come July. He was a guy that got bombed last year when hitters made contact off of him. He also was horrible with runners on base last year because he got hit hard. I would personally like to see Cora turn him into a one or a one plus inning reliever and limit his appearances to keep his stuff fresh and his arm in good shape. He probably gets hurt more often when he's going deeper into games and getting used more often. Something Farrell kept doing with Hembree, running him into the ground. This is one of the reasons why I'm excited to see Johnson go to the bullpen. If they give Johnson the innings, then they won't need Hembree for those multi-inning stints. I love that fresh and strong and early season wear and tear applies to everyone but Addison Reed.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Apr 5, 2018 13:13:39 GMT -5
I like Hembree, but I'll hold the brakes a little when it comes to him. The early returns on his stuff might be great in the beginning of the year when he's fresh and strong, but we will see what he looks like come July. He was a guy that got bombed last year when hitters made contact off of him. He also was horrible with runners on base last year because he got hit hard. I would personally like to see Cora turn him into a one or a one plus inning reliever and limit his appearances to keep his stuff fresh and his arm in good shape. He probably gets hurt more often when he's going deeper into games and getting used more often. Something Farrell kept doing with Hembree, running him into the ground. This is one of the reasons why I'm excited to see Johnson go to the bullpen. If they give Johnson the innings, then they won't need Hembree for those multi-inning stints. I love that fresh and strong and early season wear and tear applies to everyone but Addison Reed. Only Addison Reed is A LOT better than Hembree and has a track record of being able to handle that workload. Quick question- Who do you take- Reed pitching on his 3rd day in a row? Or A fresh Hethree? If the answer is anything but Reed, then that would be funny. Edit- The reason why you protect Hembree more is because he isn't that good if he isn't protected.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 5, 2018 13:24:59 GMT -5
I love that fresh and strong and early season wear and tear applies to everyone but Addison Reed. Only Addison Reed is A LOT better than Hembree and has a track record of being able to handle that workload. Quick question- Who do you take- Reed pitching on his 3rd day in a row? Or A fresh Hethree? If the answer is anything but Reed, then that would be funny. Edit- The reason why you protect Hembree more is because he isn't that good if he isn't protected. Did you see the numbers posted about Reed on his third day of work?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2018 13:29:18 GMT -5
The preceding posts will be the final ones regarding Addison Reed pitching on three days rest and the related nonsense that will be made out of context without being deleted. Both sides have made their points and had their say on this and need to let it go.
Thank you.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 5, 2018 17:37:17 GMT -5
Well, [ Hembree's] K-BB has gone from 5.7 to 19.2% in three years, his BABIP last year was an incredibly irregular .360 (career .313), his SwStr% has gone 8.9-9.7-14.1% over three years, and batters are swinging at stuff outside the zone more (25.6-27.5-34.9%). So he’s fooling more hitters, too...and burying his breaking stuff. Plus, his CB this year has better separation from the SL (CB velo is down to 75). I think he’s primed for a breakout, like well under 3 ERA, K/9 in the 11 range, and a WHIP under 1.10. If you measure vertical break by difference from his FB (whose vertical break is unchanged) and horizontal break absolutely -- which is the way you want to do it, I'm pretty sure -- his slider has gone from 6.7" of break last year to 9.9", which is to say 48% more. And it's been off the scale effective. His percentage of all pitches that are outside-the-zone swings-and-misses since 2015: 9.1%, 10.8%, 15.8%, 21.6%. To put his SSS from this year in perspective, it would have ranked 5th last year out of 274 pitchers with 60+ IP, after Gregerson, Kimbrel, Kluber, and Robertson. Whereas his number from 2 years ago would rank 160th. He's a completely different pitcher. He currently leads the bullpen in every major category: ERA-, FIP-, xFIP- / SIERA, and WPA if you adjust for LI. It's really promising. The competition for the 7th and 8th inning roles will be interesting. It also gives us 13 pitchers with MLB cred, none of whom you'd want to trade. If everyone's healthy at once, the three guys who could be optioned are Barnes, Thornburg, and E-Rod. That Thornburg has an option to burn might become important: there's no need to call him up when his rehab is done if he still looks rusty. I’ve been touting him since early Feb, after looking at his progression the past three years. Nice to see even more evidence for his teansformation. I’m close to sold. And, he doesn’t walk guys.
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Post by soxjim on Apr 6, 2018 1:50:12 GMT -5
Boone used stats of Robertson vs Smoak though only 5 at bats as his rule why he'll use the stats. Cora has said he wouldn't if just a few at bats. Who is right? Was this meant to be rhetorical? Because it has an answer, and it's Cora. And if the Yankees manager is really going to be going to matchup strategies based on five-at-bat samples this season then this is going to be my favorite baseball season. Then it's possible you can expect it to be your favorite season unless he changes his mind. Below are some links (playing the %s plus yotube Kay indicating around 1:50 that Boone is huge about the numbers and this decision had a lot to do with the numbers) - I live closer to NY so I hear as well and it looks like Boone favors looking at numbers even if it's a few at bats. I'm with you- I think it wrong to do so and I'm glad then that the Yanks might believe in them. I'll find this difference in philosophy fun. ***I also find it nonsense this year and after season ended I've heard that the game has changed and starting pitching doesn't matter much any more. I've heard this more than just a few times. It's completely stupid imo. And imo what Tampa Bay is doing is a complete joke. The owner needs to sell the team. www.newsday.com/sports/columnists/david-lennon/boone-plays-percentages-but-it-backfires-on-grand-slam-1.17813564
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