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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 7, 2018 14:19:21 GMT -5
Ok I got it lets only look at a half season of data because that's all that fits your narrative.
It's crazy funny you mention Lakin, because he had the exact same fastball per scouting reports as Sharwaryn. Was 92-94 when loose, could reach 96 starting, now he sits mid 90s and can reach 98 in the bullpen. The other thing is that Lakins strikeout rate tanked even more than Sharwaryn when he first got to AA. Lakin is the perfect example why I'm not worried about Sharwaryn strikeout rate right now.
You have to understand Sharwaryn was seen as a future reliever because of his delivery. Article at the beginning of the season comparing him to Beeks who was also seen that way. It was an example of how pitchers can adjust and change the narrative about them. Another guy who strikeouts weren't great in Portland the first time around, but has taken off since then.
I'd much rather try Sharwaryn in the pen then just trade him for some two month upgrade. Heck from what he's shown so far, he might stick as a starter.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 7, 2018 15:05:21 GMT -5
It's not Lankins or Larkin, it's Lakins.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 7, 2018 15:42:29 GMT -5
It's not Lankins or Larkin, it's Lakins. Lakins got it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 7, 2018 16:13:17 GMT -5
To me, A ball numbers are pretty irrelevant. Great he dominated lesser competition that Ranaudo wasn'table to do at a younger age. Wonderful. Sharwaryn is average in better competition and he profiles as a middle reliever major leaguer as he progresses threw the system. I'm not going to go into a 10 page long tangent on why you like Sharwaryn and why you think he's better than Ranaudo, even though they are posting similar numbers in the same level of competition. The Sox have Feltman, Lankins, Buttrey who all throw harder and strike people out like him. Anyways, the Sox have been scouting Fernando Rodney lately. Now that seems horrible. Rodney is overrated. I never got the vibe from Ranaudo that he was ever going to be anything other than fringy. I don't feel the same way about Shawaryn who still could wind up being a decent backend starter, unlike Buttrey, Lakins, and Feltman, but could slide into the same role as those aforementioned relievers if he doesn't pan out as a starter. I do like his K numbers. He has kept a good K/BB ratio throughout. Maybe I'm being irrational but I do think the Sox have something useful in Shawaryn, but I can't shake the feeling that he might go in a deal later this month.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 10, 2018 14:01:41 GMT -5
If I had to guess, Familia and Soria are the two best options for the Sox this year as trade targets at the trade deadline. Both are owed something around 3.75 million the rest of the season. A Drew Pomeranz trade could free up money to get either player if you have the prospects to get either player. I really like Soria. I love that team option for next year. Gives you Kimbrel insurance.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 10, 2018 14:59:03 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 10, 2018 21:19:59 GMT -5
Britton was 94-96 mph with the fastball again according to statcast (was watching on gameday).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 10, 2018 21:31:02 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 11:03:58 GMT -5
Guys with multiple years who could cost a lot in trade (I wouldn't put it past Dombrowski to trade someone like Chavis to go get someone like this). Brad Hand Richard Rodriguez Blake Treinen Sean Doolittle Raisel Iglesias Adam Conley (this might be the guy the Sox were scouting with the Marlins in that trade report, in fact this might be a guy a lot of teams are scouting right now trying to gather information on) If anyone has any free time, they might want to look up Adam Conley. The guy is 28 years old and just broke out this year. He looks like he could be the next Andrew Miller type of arm out of the bullpen. He has a fastball in relief that averages 95 mph and he's left handed. Big arm. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24057648/trade-talk-hearing-manny-machado-alternative-moreSo if Crasnik is true then the Sox are more likely to go after a guy like this. Which is going to hurt. Still not shocked that this is the kind of arm Dombrowski is looking at. The only guy the Sox clearly want that I left out of this list is Britton and he's a rental.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 11, 2018 12:09:07 GMT -5
Add Kirby Yates to this list as he is a guy that the Sox have scouted a lot.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 12, 2018 10:58:35 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley Jr. last 30 games from Jun 5 to Jul 11, 2018
PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB BA OBP SLG OPS 115 100 11 22 6 0 4 17 9 23 4 .220 .304 .400 .704
If JBJ can keep this up Dombrowski just might be able to get something decent for him.
GO JACKIE!!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 12, 2018 11:27:54 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley Jr. last 30 games from Jun 5 to Jul 11, 2018 PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB BA OBP SLG OPS 115 100 11 22 6 0 4 17 9 23 4 .220 .304 .400 .704 If JBJ can keep this up Dombrowski just might be able to get something decent for him. GO JACKIE!!If he can OPS .700, play elite CF defense and keep JDM out of RF, what's your problem? Did JBJ kick your dog or something?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2018 11:30:49 GMT -5
I have this desire to put my face in my palm.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 13, 2018 8:20:59 GMT -5
I can't imagine being this emotionally invested in thinking a good player is bad. Just repeat calmly: "Oops, I was wrong about Jackie Bradley when six years ago I didn't like his game. He actually turned out to be pretty good, and I am glad that he has helped the team that I root for."
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 15, 2018 5:23:23 GMT -5
What I think people are missing here is that we don't need another reliever. We already have too many good ones, in fact. What we could really use is an upgrade.
For instance, Joe Kelly (if he gets out of this latest funk, of course) + whatever for Adam Ottavino might make sense for both clubs. The Rockies need to catch lightning in a bottle to make the playoffs, so they trade Ottavino for Kelly, who has a chance to be even better. In all likelihood they're not making the playoffs either way, and they add the prospect(s) regardless.
I have Hembree leaving in any trade where we get a LHR, whether it's Britton, Adam Conley, or one of the Giant's pair (Smith and Watson).
I could even imagine Thornburg pitching like his old self and getting dealt with prospects for Treinen. Beane can come out ahead if he deals Thornburg next year.
The prospect cost is a lot less when you have one of our 7th inning talents going, in order to get an 8th inning guy back. This is especially true if the guy going has more years of control than the guy coming. I mean, Zach Britton is not 10 times as good as Heath Hembree, but he has 1/10th the team control. In theory, you should be able to get Britton for whatever you can get for Hembree, in a 3-team trade.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 15, 2018 5:58:32 GMT -5
If I had to guess, Familia and Soria are the two best options for the Sox this year as trade targets at the trade deadline. Both are owed something around 3.75 million the rest of the season. A Drew Pomeranz trade could free up money to get either player if you have the prospects to get either player. I really like Soria. I love that team option for next year. Gives you Kimbrel insurance. I know the grass always looks greener elsewhere, but we've invented photography.
You don't base a trade on subjective assessments and memories of past years. There are no numbers where either guy is better than Barnes and Hembree and no reason to believe they'll be better going forward (especially Soria). I'm looking at Statcast data now as well as the actual results.
Kirby Yates, Adam Ottavino, Will Smith & Tony Watson, Zach Britton. I think that's the complete list of realistic targets that are good enough to pursue.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 15, 2018 6:15:22 GMT -5
I mean, Zach Britton is not 10 times as good as Heath Hembree, but he has 1/10th the team control. In theory, you should be able to get Britton for whatever you can get for Hembree, in a 3-team trade.
I don't think teams see it that way or value a guy like Hembree that way. The actual difference between Britton in a season between Hembree and Britton for a half a season might be 0.5 WAR. However playoff teams can clearly value the difference between Hembree and Britton on a postseason roster. It's really not even all that close. I think we could be done seeing the days of a guy like Chapman (elite closer, aka Zach Britton here) getting traded for a top 25 prospect like Torres, but I do think it would take a lot regardless. Basically what I'm saying is, wake me up when a team would give up anything of value for Hembree because I know Britton is going to great value with the way he's shoving lately. Hembree is the kind of guy who's more valuable on a roster versus a trade. I would still think about trading a guy like Workman, even if he didn't get much. The Sox need the roster spot for improvement and I basically think Wokrman is getting results with a lot of smoking mirrors.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 15, 2018 6:41:19 GMT -5
I really like Soria. I love that team option for next year. Gives you Kimbrel insurance. Kirby Yates, Adam Ottavino, Will Smith & Tony Watson, Zach Britton. I think that's the complete list of realistic targets that are good enough to pursue.
I don't really have access to the statcast data that you have, but I'll go ahead and trust your list over mine. I'll throw out the two names like Soria and Familia (even if Soria's peripherals look good on fangraphs). There's really only 2 names available from that list at the moment. Kirby Yates and Zach Britton. Barring a collapse of the Giants or Rockies in the next 2 weeks, it'll probably remain that way too. I don't see a proposed Joe Kelly and prospect for a Ottavino for example either. Why would a team trade for a question mark in Joe Kelly when they have someone better at the moment in the middle of a pennant race? That would make zero sense, unless they became sellers. Looking at Britton and Yates though, the Orioles have plenty of suitors for Britton with his past success and his recent uptick in velocity. The Sox don't have a great relationship with AJ Preller like you noted in the 2018 bullpen thread either. The Padres are always ridiculous in their demands for good players. I've heard through radio talk on the MLB channel that when teams like the Sox call about the availability on Brad Hand, the Padres immediately ask for Devers. Think about that. The Padres always put a gold premium on talent and demand high prospect talent in return. That's why you traded Espinoza for Pomeranz and 4 great prospects for Kimbrel. Maybe the best answer for relievers is in house and the Sox go out and get Brian Dozier to play 2B instead. If the asking price is literally outrageous, then I guess it really isn't worth fixing I guess. Part of me wants the Sox to take a chance and throw high end prospect talent at Adam Conley and see if you got a premium high end leverage reliever for the next 4 years. I would trade Chavis for that guy, for example. No problem. Chavis looks good, but Conley looks just as good value wise the next 4 years as a guy who might keep sustained success as a reliever with his big arm.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 15, 2018 6:50:33 GMT -5
I really like Soria. I love that team option for next year. Gives you Kimbrel insurance. I know the grass always looks greener elsewhere, but we've invented photography.
You don't base a trade on subjective assessments and memories of past years. There are no numbers where either guy is better than Barnes and Hembree and no reason to believe they'll be better going forward (especially Soria). I'm looking at Statcast data now as well as the actual results.
Kirby Yates, Adam Ottavino, Will Smith & Tony Watson, Zach Britton. I think that's the complete list of realistic targets that are good enough to pursue.
Eric if you look at my comparison on the bullpen options thread Soria is better than Hembree in almost every stat. You must basically be basing everything off statcast data.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 15, 2018 6:57:14 GMT -5
All I know is that if you don't get a better reliever the next 2 weeks, you're taking a big gamble.
You're risking throwing Kelly in a 8th inning of a playoff game (big risk). You're risking on the health and effectiveness from Thornburg in a 8th inning of a playoff game if Kelly doesn't turn things around (huge risk). You're maybe asking Brasier to become the new 8th inning guy maybe (moderate risk). Last option is you're asking Price to become the 8th inning guy and you're hoping for the non injured Stephen Wright to show up in the playoffs.
The Sox do have options, and they could conceivably punt on a reliever, but I don't think it's worth the risk to do that. Really this might be the best year for the Sox to win for a while. You have Kimbrel here for a half a year before you lose him. Go for it.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 15, 2018 7:08:43 GMT -5
The Red Sox have a crap load of good/decent relievers, but only one elite guy. I can trust Barnes being a top 3 guy, but you need another guy. A more proven guy you can trust. DD sure thinks that and I trust his opinion.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 15, 2018 12:14:43 GMT -5
I know the grass always looks greener elsewhere, but we've invented photography.
You don't base a trade on subjective assessments and memories of past years. There are no numbers where either guy is better than Barnes and Hembree and no reason to believe they'll be better going forward (especially Soria). I'm looking at Statcast data now as well as the actual results.
Kirby Yates, Adam Ottavino, Will Smith & Tony Watson, Zach Britton. I think that's the complete list of realistic targets that are good enough to pursue.
Eric if you look at my comparison on the bullpen options thread Soria is better than Hembree in almost every stat. You must basically be basing everything off statcast data. No, I'm just weighting xFIP, BABIP, and HR/FB properly. Anyone can have a great K/W ratio if they're willing to pound the strike zone to the point where people rocket line drives all over the ballpark. I think it's in the game thread that I cite Soria's consistent high BABIP over the last three years and show where he ranks -- near the bottom of all relievers.
Statcast just shows that the high BABIP is not bad luck or bad defense.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 16, 2018 13:26:16 GMT -5
Eric if you look at my comparison on the bullpen options thread Soria is better than Hembree in almost every stat. You must basically be basing everything off statcast data. No, I'm just weighting xFIP, BABIP, and HR/FB properly. Anyone can have a great K/W ratio if they're willing to pound the strike zone to the point where people rocket line drives all over the ballpark. I think it's in the game thread that I cite Soria's consistent high BABIP over the last three years and show where he ranks -- near the bottom of all relievers.
Statcast just shows that the high BABIP is not bad luck or bad defense.
You get Hembree has an xFIP of 3.50 and Soria is 3.29 right?. Hembree has given up more homeruns and allows hitters to have an OPS .100 higher than Soria .697 compared to .600. If anything it seems like Hembree has to stay out of the zone or he gets killed. While Soria can pitch in it, giving up singles, but limiting walks. You are really making no sense because Soria isn't getting hit hard, like you make it sound.
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