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Kalish likely to miss time with another surgery
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 26, 2013 17:57:47 GMT -5
Head mashed in the California League (and we know what that's good for) and then slowed way down in Double-A. I'm still not terribly worried about what he'll do. He struck out in just under a third of his Double-A at-bats.
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Post by dcri on Jan 26, 2013 19:08:01 GMT -5
Reddick is going to get better. He is the type of player who works on his weaknesses, and he has enormous talent. In retrospect, it was a terrible trade, especially when the Sox did not have a long term solution for RF. And they still don't.
I was OK with the trade at the time, but I thought they would acquire a good replacement, which to this day, they have not.
The Dodger trade aside, the Sox have not made a really good trade in quite a while.
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Post by bluechip on Jan 26, 2013 23:33:28 GMT -5
Reddick is going to get better. He is the type of player who works on his weaknesses, and he has enormous talent. In retrospect, it was a terrible trade, especially when the Sox did not have a long term solution for RF. And they still don't. Reddick has not really improved on his strikeouts. He still Ks far too often. Right now he is a good player, but he needs to fix those strikeouts before he can become an elite player. I'm not saying it was a good trade for the Red Sox.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 27, 2013 1:18:28 GMT -5
I guess we've all got the answer to the question that was floating around the board a few years back, about who would be the more valuable player, Kalish or Reddick, if only by default.
A few things to keep in mind about Reddick...
He exceeded his PAs for a previous season last year, and not by a little but by 129 plate appearances. His previous high was 544, last year he had 673. Oakland was going to ride that horse to the end, understandably given their season. Coincidentally or not, his last month+ of Sep/Oct - those last 131 PAs - were terrible. The line: .164/.214/.295 for an anemic .509 OPS. You read that right. Before that: .262/.327/.505 - .832 OPS. Did you ever get a close look at the guy? He looks like he's all wireframe. I still can't believe he propels a baseball the way he does. I honestly think that being completely gassed played a big part in the belly flop.
The other important point that needs to be made is that, just as he has in the past, he showed no difference hitting against righties and lefties, with his slugging actually better against southpaws. He's the rare lefty bat who mashes pitchers from the same side.
Finally, and this may be the most telling number of all, he hit for more power in Oakland than away with a nearly .800 OPS even with the horrible last month+. All that room in foul territory doesn't bother him for the very simple reason that he rarely makes use of it. The guy hits balls that stay hit, with a mind-blowing .42 GB/FB ratio. That's as good a definition as you'll find of getting the ball in the air. And while Seattle is in that division for a downer of a road visit, so is Texas and that will liven up your bat a bit.
He knows what the season looks and feels like now. My prediction is that if he adds some weight and if the Athletics rest him a bit more, hell carry that .800+ OPS right through the season. These days, that's a pretty good outfielder.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jan 27, 2013 14:18:27 GMT -5
Add in a Gold Glove in his first full season and you have a well rounded young player with big upside. Win Win for Billy Beane.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 28, 2013 10:11:19 GMT -5
Count me in the group that says Reddick will continue to improve.
And Norm you may have a point about his constitution and fatigue.While he was giving autographs a couple of springs ago I touched his shoulder and it was all sinew, tightly wound.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 28, 2013 11:45:53 GMT -5
Coincidentally or not, his last month+ of Sep/Oct - those last 131 PAs - were terrible. The line: .164/.214/.295 for an anemic .509 OPS. You read that right. Before that: .262/.327/.505 - .832 OPS. Ah, fun with splits. Reddick had a big month in May with 10 hr, but a .647 OPS in the entire 2nd half. His walk rate was 14%! in May-June but only 5% in the 2nd half - 17 walks in May alone but 17 in the 2nd half. I don't think the fatigue explanation holds water - to me it looks like the league adjusted on him and he never figured out how to respond. He certainly hadn't figured it out by the postseason (2-for-17 with 10 Ks). Maybe this year he will.
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Post by raftsox on Jan 28, 2013 12:53:40 GMT -5
Ah, fun with splits (v2). Month wRC+ Mar/Apr 113 May 159 June 126 July 124 Aug 103 Sept/Oct 35
There might be something to the fatigue argument.
As far as Kalish stands; I always like Reddick more than him, but there isn't any point in arguing about what could have been. It's a shame that Ryan is injured again; for him, the team and us fans. Unfortunately, he'd better come back on fire or his time in this org is doomed.
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Post by elguapo on Jan 28, 2013 14:15:04 GMT -5
Fun with splits (v3)
Rough estimates on the percentages -
Walk rate - 1%, 14%, 5%, 6% Batting avg - .264. .263, .250, .163 isoP - .180, .290, .200, .130
Split 1 is the first 22 games featuring 1 walk and 17 Ks. Split 2 is the next 61 games until the All-Star break, where Reddick's walk rate and HR/FB spiked. Split 3 is post-ASB through August; split 4 is the Sept-Oct slump.
Let's forget about the atrocious batting average and subpar isoP in Sept/Oct, whatever the cause. Slumps happen, hot streaks happen. It's not the month+ slump Reddick needs to avoid somehow if he's going to improve on this season, it's the 60% of the year that he spent showing miserable ability to get on base. Best case, .260 / .320 / .460 / .780 - but it could easily be .240 / .280 / .420 / .700.
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Post by hammerhead on Jan 28, 2013 14:48:15 GMT -5
Reddick has always been extremely streaky.... He seems to mash for stints and then be completely anemic for long bouts. He's a good athelete with a tremendous arm, but if I were Oakland I'd look to move him, because I think his value is at an all time high. I'm not saying Reddick will be a washout with one fluky good season, I'm saying he is what he is a streaky player who has positive value because of defense and power, whose overall numbers probably looked better on paper then the reality. He doesn't get on base and he strikes out a ton. I think his floor is a platoon player with defensive upside..... I think his ceiling is last year. I'd trade him and try and fleece a team that's high on him... I rather fill the spot with a higher .OBP guy who is more consistant.....
I think the arguement about the Bailey trade isn't that the sox shouldn't have traded Reddick, it's that they didn't get enough in return, or picked the wrong return. Especially when you include the throw ins of Head and Alcantara
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Post by jioh on Jan 28, 2013 15:15:14 GMT -5
Yeah, the Sox clearly should have gotten more for a guy who hit .244/.293/.389/.682 in the 2nd half of 2011. At the very least, more than a guy who was going to have a freak accident. You NEVER wanna trade for a guy who's about to have a freak accident. Who doesn't know that? Much better to go into 2012 with "TBA" as the closer.
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Post by hammerhead on Jan 28, 2013 17:04:55 GMT -5
? That's a pretty pointless post.... The discussion is about the position traded for (relief pitcher), not the fact that Bailey had a freak injury. I'm not sure what this last post is even addressing, My post mentioned other prospects, the one above it defended Reddick as having worn down. Who even mentioned Bailey's injury in terms of value... Everyone knows you can't judge trades in hindsight, especially when you're taking into account injury..... But what you can judge is trading 3 usable pieces for a "closer" coming off an injury. Or was that a freak accident too? But I guess you're right.... It was a great trade, Ben C. got a real bargain.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jan 28, 2013 17:34:28 GMT -5
Yeah, the Sox clearly should have gotten more for a guy who hit .244/.293/.389/.682 in the 2nd half of 2011. At the very least, more than a guy who was going to have a freak accident. You NEVER wanna trade for a guy who's about to have a freak accident. Who doesn't know that? Much better to go into 2012 with "TBA" as the closer. Ehhh... it's still never a good idea to trade for a reliever. Never.
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Post by jioh on Jan 28, 2013 20:20:37 GMT -5
Yeah, the Sox clearly should have gotten more for a guy who hit .244/.293/.389/.682 in the 2nd half of 2011. At the very least, more than a guy who was going to have a freak accident. You NEVER wanna trade for a guy who's about to have a freak accident. Who doesn't know that? Much better to go into 2012 with "TBA" as the closer. Ehhh... it's still never a good idea to trade for a reliever. Never. Yeah, I remember that time we totally ripped off the Yankees by scooping Danny Cater from them for just a reliever.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 28, 2013 21:06:20 GMT -5
I also remember the Sox doing well in a deal in which they sent Al Nipper and Calvin Schiraldi to the Cubs for Lee Smith, and they did well in the Frankie Rodriguez for Rick Aguilera deal as well.
But yes, generally it's a bad idea to deal for a closer. I do wonder if we'll find this out again with the Joel Hanrahan deal.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 28, 2013 21:32:48 GMT -5
Reddick has always been extremely streaky.... He seems to mash for stints and then be completely anemic for long bouts. He's a good athelete with a tremendous arm, but if I were Oakland I'd look to move him, because I think his value is at an all time high. I'm not saying Reddick will be a washout with one fluky good season, I'm saying he is what he is a streaky player who has positive value because of defense and power, whose overall numbers probably looked better on paper then the reality. He doesn't get on base and he strikes out a ton. I think his floor is a platoon player with defensive upside..... I think his ceiling is last year. I'd trade him and try and fleece a team that's high on him... I rather fill the spot with a higher .OBP guy who is more consistant..... I think the arguement about the Bailey trade isn't that the sox shouldn't have traded Reddick, it's that they didn't get enough in return, or picked the wrong return. Especially when you include the throw ins of Head and Alcantara Ok...I'm that team. I think this guy will continue to improve. His 2012 stats are outstanding for power and defense. I believe that his OBP will increase. An outfielder who can bang 30 hrs....and play above par defense has a place on my team. He is getting better and has room to grow.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jan 29, 2013 1:29:51 GMT -5
No doubt, some are still wincing in Seattle about the Heathclif Slocumbe trade.
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Post by benfromma on Jan 29, 2013 7:41:59 GMT -5
The Reddick trade was a horrible trade not only did we give up him but we gave up young talent that could develop. (Head, Alcantra) BC was probably right to think that Kalish without injury had a greater upside than Reddick but that is why they are prospects and not guaranteed major league players..Hopefully there will be return on this trade this year if Bailey pitches well and becomes a lights out 8th inning pitcher or some team needs a closer and gives us a return on this trade.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 29, 2013 9:34:39 GMT -5
The Bailey deal reminds me a lot of Phil Plantier for Jose Melendez. Trading Plantier for Melendez was probably silly, but I'm not sure Reddick is a better hitter than Plantier was. (Reddick can play defense, however). I'm a tad surprised that Beane hasn't flipped Reddick and Head, because that is the Billy Beane way.
Cherington probably moved Alcantara at the right time, but in the wrong deal. He still bears watching, and the A's generally do a good job developing pitchers, but he's really only excelled in the Gulf Coast League. He's probably going to be repeating in the Midwest League, unless they're going to move the poor kid up to Stockton.
What's there to say about Kalish at this point? He's lost so much time that it'd be hard to think his skills haven't atrophied. Hitting requires reps, and he hasn't gotten them, only 357 over the last two years. It's fair to ask why he keeps getting hurt, as well. He's torn both labrums before his 25th birthday. Is he working out/rehabbing incorrectly, or just structurally weak? It's sad, because the guy has a fantastic collection of skills - he looked like he'd be a .290+ hitter with walks, some power, and top notch defense. Durability is a skill, too, though.
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Post by jmei on Jan 29, 2013 10:59:24 GMT -5
Ryan Sweeney is still a free agent and is a career .293/.347/.402 hitter versus RHP. That's not great or even good, but he's good defensively in RF, can even play a passable CF for a few games if necessary, and is a decent baserunner. For the major league minimum, he wouldn't be the worst option as the 5th outfielder on Opening Day, although guys like Linares or Hazelbaker (or trade option X) would have every opportunity to usurp him down the road. Of course, you'd also need one of Nava, Ortiz, Saltalamacchia, or even Sweeney to commit to being the backup first baseman, and none of those names are ideal (in order: short, old, catcher, never played it before), but I'd rather hope one of them can play a credible 1B than bring in Gomez/Kotchman/etc. and rely on one of Nava/Gomes as your backup RF. And the Red Sox just signed Sweeney to a minor league deal. Not to toot my own horn or anything, but... At one point, Sweeney made an offer to Cherington: Try me at first base.
"He didn't really say what he expected of me, he just said I have a good shot at making the team and begin able to play different positions," Sweeney said. "He said something before talking about maybe needing a first baseman. Not to me. ... I had talked to Ben on the phone, I was like, 'Hey, Ben, do you need me to go get a first baseman's glove?' And he just kind of laughed.
"At the big league level, I've never played first base. It'd be something that I'd be willing to try and get a first baseman's glove. Like my agent was saying, if you can be a type of guy -- not saying like [Nick] Swisher where he can play the outfield and you know move into first base, obviously he's a pretty good first baseman, too -- to be able to have all of that would not be a good thing."
Sweeney said Cherington didn't end up saying anything about the idea, but he's nonetheless open to taking grounders there in Spring Training. ( link)
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 29, 2013 11:05:18 GMT -5
Smart move by Sweeney taking that initiative. He's a fringe player, so anything he can do to make himself more valuable is a positive. Provided he can play first at an acceptable level (which someone with his skills should be able to), his defense and flexibility should put him ahead of Nava and/or Gomez for the last bench spot.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 29, 2013 12:19:15 GMT -5
It is quite smart on Sweeney's part to throw that out there. However, I'm not sure a player with a career .378 slugging percentage who has only slugged above .383 once is even an ideal backup first baseman.
I think the backup first baseman is going to get a good amount of run given Napoli's hip situation. With Adrian Gonzalez playing 160 games at first base, sure, I'm down with Sweeney as the backup if needs a day or two, with Gomez stashed in Pawtucket if it's a DL stint. But with the backup 1B possibly playing something like 30-40 games this year, they'd have to at the very least finagle Sweeney into starts against RHP only. (By the way, this originally said they should get an Overbay type, but then I realized he's never played OF in the majors. Still, he's reportedly talking to the Brewers about a ML deal - if that's all it'd take to get him in camp, sign me up.)
That said, while it doesn't excite me, I could see this getting him onto the MLB roster and I wouldn't cry or anything. And by the way James, I don't think Nava's competing with anyone for a spot right now - he's a platoon starter with Gomes in left with the roster as presently constructed.
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Post by jmei on Jan 29, 2013 13:13:47 GMT -5
One tidbit from a Speier article ( link): The Sox recognize that reality, which is why they're still likely to add another player capable of serving as a fallback at that position.
"The one area that we probably need to get a feel for is at first base," said manager John Farrell. "We fully expect Napoli to be ready to go, but if a need were to arise at that position, I think we'll probably have some additions before camp opens up in that area, so that there will be protection provided at first base."
[...]
Still, the Sox would seemingly like more options at first base. The team does plan to have switch-hitter Daniel Nava get some work at first in the spring, though it remains to be seen how he will take to the position.
Also, RE: Nava, I'm of the opinion that he's guaranteed a spot on the 25-man roster to start the season as the heavier side of a platoon in LF and the real debate is Sweeney vs. Gomez vs. [Acquisition] for the last spot on the bench. However, a lot of other smart people, including Speier in the article excerpted above, seem to think that Nava needs to fight for a roster spot while Sweeney is more likely to be guaranteed a bench spot. EDIT: here's the full excerpt from Speier: For now, the Sox appear inclined to go with four outfielders to start the year and to focus on another first base option to round out a bench that is most likely to feature catcher David Ross, Ciriaco and a first baseman (with positional versatility) to be identified. The ability of Victorino to play either right or center field insulates the Sox a bit, offering a credible alternative in the middle of the outfield should Jacoby Ellsbury miss time.
The re-signing of Sweeney to a minor league deal that includes an opt-out before the end of spring training positions him as the odds-on favorite to make the club as the fourth outfielder for opening day, ahead of Nava (who has options remaining).
And while Sweeney saw his production tumble last year following a concussion (at the time of that injury, he was hitting .311/.341/.443/.784; thereafter, he hit .183/.247/.268/.515), his career suggests that he's a hitter capable of posting competitive at-bats with decent on-base percentages even if expectations for his power are modest. He's also capable of offering above-average defense at all three outfield positions, making him a valuable fourth outfielder and left-handed complement to Jonny Gomes.
That is not to downplay the ability of Nava, who offered tremendous production and a strong on-base presence for a month-plus last year before a succession of wrist injuries began to erode his numbers. He also made considerable strides defensively in the outfield.
If he can add the ability to play first base to his resume, then as a switch-hitter who can play outfield and first while doing posting strong OBPs against right-handed pitchers (.261/.369/.399/.768 vs. right-handers compared to .191/.302/.318/.621 against lefties), Nava is a valuable depth option, particularly on a team that skews right-handed.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jan 30, 2013 17:07:38 GMT -5
Dan Roche @rochiewbz Sources: Ryan Kalish recovery time from shoulder surgery is 6-8 months, hopefully only 6. Been a tough few yrs for a good kid. #RedSox #wbz
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 30, 2013 20:00:19 GMT -5
Dan Roche @rochiewbz Sources: Ryan Kalish recovery time from shoulder surgery is 6-8 months, hopefully only 6. Been a tough few yrs for a good kid. #RedSox #wbz I would love to see a recap of his shoulder/neck surgeries.......what was done when and why with some detail. It is hard to understand, without that, why he has had to repeatedly undergo the knife.
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