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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 13, 2018 15:38:42 GMT -5
I think an aspect that can’t be factored in Dalbec’s development is that he pitched in college too. There’s no linear model for all of you stat guys to compare him with. Watch and follow his development. It might be fun. Or, he may not make it.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Aug 13, 2018 16:15:48 GMT -5
I think an aspect that can’t be factored in Dalbec’s development is that he pitched in college too. There’s no linear model for all of you stat guys to compare him with. Watch and follow his development. It might be fun. Or, he may not make it. Excellent point. This already inteiguing hitter is actually still learning how to hit, truly focusing on hitting for the first time, finally getting reps he didn't get in college. Kinda makes me hope they don't push him too aggressively. Give him a chance to internalize the fundamentals of hitting well before exposing holes. Doing this well as an apprentice indicates he could be great if developed properly. Edit. Yes he hit in college but as a pitcher he didn't practice hitting in the same way or hit as regularly as a 3B. Whereas a position player who converts to pitching has spent every day taking reps at throwing the ball, before and during games. Give Dalbec another year at a lower level to learn to cut down K's, and maximize whatever hit tool he has, and we could have 6+ years of someone special to go with JD, Devers and the killer B's.
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Post by drrigormortis on Aug 13, 2018 20:32:42 GMT -5
Dalbec had been recruited as an infielder by Arizona ( UA bio page) and practiced accordingly. It was the dire situation of the 2014 team's pitching staff that led to him throwing 38 innings in relief. The coaches would pull him off 3B in the middle of a game to replace whoever was struggling on the mound. Since college practice periods and their duration are limited by NCAA rules, Dalbec's pitching reps had to stand back behind hitting and fielding. Of course there were still voluntary practices in absence of the coaches. Nevertheless, with classroom work and reps at three positions, it had been widely acknowledged that he was one of the busiest students in the whole athletic program. In 2015, with Arizona's pitching situation further deteriorating, Dalbec got his first starts in the later stages of Pac-12 conference play. Despite coming in cold, he had pitched better than some of the weekend starters. He tossed 61.2 innings in his sophomore season. After a coaching change ahead of the 2016 season, initial plans saw Dalbec back on 3B full time. While the overall performance of the pitching staff had improved, an injury to one of the weekend starters brought Dalbec back to his least favorite task. He ended up pitching 100.2 innings, 36.1 of them as a postseason starter, all the way to the College World Series final. With the 2016 postseason looming and the Friday starter still out, the coaches ordered Dalbec to take more pitching reps in practice. He showed above average control on all of his pitches (slider, changeup, 95 mph fastball, off-speed, IIRC). One reason behind it might have been his tremendous arm. He threw relatively effortless in favor of better control and location and was able to keep his fastball in the low to mid 90s throughout nine innings. Dalbec became one of the most dominant pitchers of the 2016 college postseason (1.49 ERA, 36.1 IP, 10 BB, 41 SO in six games) and would have been drafted higher, had he been willing to pitch. How good was he? On June 10th Dalbec pitched 8.2 shutout innings, allowing five hits, to beat Cardinals #4 prospect Dakota Hudson in the 2016 Super Regional in front of 13,000 rampaging Mississippi State fans in Starkville, MS ( news article). One of the craziest games I've seen. With Dalbec dominating opposing hitters, including Twins #7 prospect Brent Rooker, MSU desperately cut off the power around campus in the 8th inning in an attempt to ice Arizona's starter. That happened around 7 pm with still enough daylight to finish the game. However, the floodlight MSU kept running throughout the game for no (apparent) reason had gone dark, too. As scripted, MSU's coach John Cohen refused to continue until power was restored, while Arizona's skipper insisted on finishing the game. With the discussion at home plate heating up quickly, both schools' athletic directors went down and joined the party. But there was a twist: Arizona's AD, Greg Byrne (now at Alabama), used to be MSU's AD before he left for Tucson. Not only had he hired MSU's baseball coach, he also used to be their new AD's boss. After 30 minutes of mostly yelling between those guys, MSU turned the power back on and the game continued with a 40 min delay. Dalbec, who had kept loose in the bullpen, went back on the mound. For MSU's last batter, but also for the sake of Dalbec's safety, Arizona brought in a lefty to finish the shutout. The crowd had become hostile towards Dalbec's calm demeanor and methodical dominance to such an extend that the coaches decided to pull him early. The next day, in game #2, Dalbec contributed a HR in a 2-4 outing to sweep MSU and advance Arizona to the College World Series. Subsequently, MSU fans and local media branded him "Starkville's Most Hated Man". Here's a video recap of the second game, including Dalbec knocking it out of the park.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 13, 2018 20:45:57 GMT -5
Good story, welcome to the site.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 15, 2018 10:35:16 GMT -5
“The defense has been consistently-plus all year at third base. It’s been a strength,” [Red Sox director of player personnel] Crockett said. What is more likely to be the more accurate assessment of Dalbec's defense--the Red Sox' director of player personnel, having two years of daily reports available to him plus regular conversations with Dalbec's manager or someone who has "limited looks"? Hey, you're inclined to believe who you'd like. Of course, he has every reason to be over-complimentary as well. I challenge you to find an impartial source that calls his defense plus.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 15, 2018 10:44:32 GMT -5
FWIW, I don't know that I'd call him a plus defender from my limited looks. Average at worst, but I wouldn't confidently say he's better than a 50 or 55 defender. 60 is aggressive, imo. That, of course, is no knock on him. Plus arm. Hands work. Moves pretty well for his size. He'll be good at 3B. To some extent, that depends on how you are using the term 'plus defender'. If that term is a substitute for range then I'd be inclined to agree with you. If that term is defense as a whole, range and arm, I'd tend to think he's a plus defender. If your range is average to better and your arm is plus plus, you are probably a plus defender but that's just semantics. If we recall, when Devers was at Salem, it seemed like every eye witness account came away with a remark on how surprised they were at Dever's range that it seemed like he made a lot of spectacular plays. We don't see that as much with Dalbec but, that could also be short sample size viewing. Do you still watch lots of games? Honest question since you're not as active in gameday threads as you once were. Just curious where you're coming from on that take. I disagree with the premise that range + arm = defense, fwiw. That ignores things like hands, feet, positioning, and awareness, and arm is considered a separate tool so that wouldn't even enter the equation. Frankly, I've always thought it kind of silly that "arm" is its own separate tool, but let's not digress on that here.
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Post by mredsox89 on Aug 15, 2018 13:31:31 GMT -5
“The defense has been consistently-plus all year at third base. It’s been a strength,” [Red Sox director of player personnel] Crockett said. What is more likely to be the more accurate assessment of Dalbec's defense--the Red Sox' director of player personnel, having two years of daily reports available to him plus regular conversations with Dalbec's manager or someone who has "limited looks"? Hey, you're inclined to believe who you'd like. Of course, he has every reason to be over-complimentary as well. I challenge you to find an impartial source that calls his defense plus. In the handful of games I saw him vs. Devers the past few seasons, I'd say generally Dalbec showed off a better arm, Devers showed better defense and made plays that you wouldn't necessarily expect the typical A+ 3B to make. That said, going into Devers' season in A+, I had pretty much only heard negatives about his defense, so it may well have just been more of a surprise than anything, whereas with Dalbec, it wasn't as if his defense was mostly disregarded off the bat. The arm on Dalbec is unquestionably a + tool right now. Not sure I would call his overall defense a plus tool right now, but if he hits like he does, he'll find a job somewhere. I know it's been said a lot, but the fact that Devers is doing what he's doing at the big league level at nearly the same age as Dalbec now at AA has to be considered in discussions between the two
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 15, 2018 13:34:02 GMT -5
To some extent, that depends on how you are using the term 'plus defender'. If that term is a substitute for range then I'd be inclined to agree with you. If that term is defense as a whole, range and arm, I'd tend to think he's a plus defender. If your range is average to better and your arm is plus plus, you are probably a plus defender but that's just semantics. If we recall, when Devers was at Salem, it seemed like every eye witness account came away with a remark on how surprised they were at Dever's range that it seemed like he made a lot of spectacular plays. We don't see that as much with Dalbec but, that could also be short sample size viewing. Do you still watch lots of games? Honest question since you're not as active in gameday threads as you once were. Just curious where you're coming from on that take. I disagree with the premise that range + arm = defense, fwiw. That ignores things like hands, feet, positioning, and awareness, and arm is considered a separate tool so that wouldn't even enter the equation. Frankly, I've always thought it kind of silly that "arm" is its own separate tool, but let's not digress on that here. First, I thought you were separating arm because you mentioned it separately, I'm still not sure either way how you view it. The digression you mention is an important component to me. Having a strong arm can overcome a lot just as having a weak arm can take away from the overall package. I think it should be separate. I also think range includes pretty much everything else, it's applied range. In answer to your question, yes and no. I rarely watch games live anymore but often go to archived games and game logs to look at specific players. I don't sleep a whole lot so at times, I'll concentrate on that for several hours, more to satisfy my curiosity than anything else. A huge caveat though, minor league baseball means you are usually only seeing the ends of plays. There just aren't enough dedicated cameras and replays to see what a position player does from the crack of the bat. If you are sitting in Fenway, it should be obvious that JBJ is the first guy moving. My impression of Dalbec is that he looks a lot more refined than Devers at the same stage (not age, stage). On the other hand, he doesn't have Devers explosive range, especially to his left. His endings just aren't as spectacular. He is solid though so I'd give him an average to better for everything not arm. Add in the cannon and I'd say he will be a plus defender as long as he continues to keep up with the speed of the game as he climbs the ladder. I would put Dalbec about halfway between Devers (now, he improved a whole lot at Portland), who I believe will be elite (plus-plus) as he ages (I think the game will slow down for him both on defense and with the hit tool) and Chavis who I consider solid but pedestrian (average).
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 15, 2018 13:37:49 GMT -5
In any event, there will almost assuredly be a bit of blocking in the next few years with Devers, Dalbec, Ockimey, and Chavis plus a full outfield. Hopefully Casas will be on their heels a few years later.
I know it usually works itself out, but there aren’t a lot of positions to move to for these guys.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 15, 2018 13:46:07 GMT -5
In any event, there will almost assuredly be a bit of blocking in the next few years with Devers, Dalbec, Ockimey, and Chavis plus a full outfield. Hopefully Casas will be on their heels a few years later. I know it usually works itself out, but there aren’t a lot of positions to move to for these guys. It's too bad that none of these guys can play 2B, that's the most obvious hole in the line-up.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 15, 2018 13:47:47 GMT -5
In any event, there will almost assuredly be a bit of blocking in the next few years with Devers, Dalbec, Ockimey, and Chavis plus a full outfield. Hopefully Casas will be on their heels a few years later. I know it usually works itself out, but there aren’t a lot of positions to move to for these guys. I think Dombrowski knows how to handle "surplus" as we well know. I would think Devers is the guy at 3b and Dalbec is a strong possibility to be dealt, but that's not a certainty so one of Devers or Dalbec would need to be moved to 1b perhaps, sort of an heir apparent to Moreland? I would have thought Devers is the guy to move but reading some things I've read I'm not so sure. Otherwise do the Sox give JDM the big bucks beyond 2019 or settle for Chavis or Ockimey as the DH? I have trouble seeing Chavis not being dealt. If he could play 2b he could be valuable to the Sox as Pedroia's future is still kind of injury clouded, but it sounds like Chavis might be just a corner at this point? And if Ockimey isn't acceptable at 1b, then DH is the only option and with JDM around that's not likely. The one thing I've notice about Dombrowski is that he's kind of a sorter of talent. He decides who he wants to play and usually deals the other. Sometimes his decisions can be questioned (like Travis Shaw or choosing Vazquez over Swihart so quickly), but he is usually decisive, and I think the Sox have enough quality among these types of hitters that if they need a pitcher they should be able to acquire one. I think all three players, Dalbec, Chavis, and Ockimey are capable of being quality major league offensive players, and by time they sort out 1b/3b a few years should pass and Tristan Casas should be knocking on the door. The next question will be is Nick Northcut and/or perhaps Danny Diaz knocking on the door at 3b as well?
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Post by awall on Aug 15, 2018 19:44:17 GMT -5
In any event, there will almost assuredly be a bit of blocking in the next few years with Devers, Dalbec, Ockimey, and Chavis plus a full outfield. Hopefully Casas will be on their heels a few years later. I know it usually works itself out, but there aren’t a lot of positions to move to for these guys. It's too bad that none of these guys can play 2B, that's the most obvious hole in the line-up. His K% is a little higher than I’d l8ke to see in Salem, but I’m not giving up hope that Chatham could be a 2B answer some day.
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 15, 2018 22:51:31 GMT -5
In any event, there will almost assuredly be a bit of blocking in the next few years with Devers, Dalbec, Ockimey, and Chavis plus a full outfield. Hopefully Casas will be on their heels a few years later. I know it usually works itself out, but there aren’t a lot of positions to move to for these guys. I would have thought Devers is the guy to move but reading some things I've read I'm not so sure. I think DD had to make a choice in the Sale trade, Moncada or Devers. I also think he made the right choice both short and long term. Love Devers swing, dont want to see it somewhere else.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 15, 2018 23:08:49 GMT -5
I would have thought Devers is the guy to move but reading some things I've read I'm not so sure. I think DD had to make a choice in the Sale trade, Moncada or Devers. I also think he made the right choice both short and long term. Love Devers swing, dont want to see it somewhere else. When I talked about Devers moving, I didn't mean to another team. I meant to another position such as 1b if they prefer Dalbec at 3b. What I was saying is that despite Dalbec's rocket arm and good defense at 3b, Devers might be a more highly regarded defensive 3b despite his current growing pains. Dombrowski had no intention of moving Devers or Benintendi in any deal and I don't think that will change anytime soon. Devers will one day be a monster in the lineup - wouldn't mind if he chose September and October this year to be that, but it might be next year or the year after as he's still quite young. Either way I would anticipate Devers in the lineup. I just wonder if the Sox are so enamored with Dalbec's power that they try to fit both in the lineup come 2020. If so somebody would have to move defensively - most likely to 1b as Moreland would be gone after 2019.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2018 2:30:39 GMT -5
In any event, there will almost assuredly be a bit of blocking in the next few years with Devers, Dalbec, Ockimey, and Chavis plus a full outfield. Hopefully Casas will be on their heels a few years later. I know it usually works itself out, but there aren’t a lot of positions to move to for these guys. It's too bad that none of these guys can play 2B, that's the most obvious hole in the line-up. I'm not so sure that Chavis couldn't be made into a "serviceable" second baseman. That's pure speculation on my part and would assume he could handle a pivot.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 16, 2018 10:32:39 GMT -5
It's too bad that none of these guys can play 2B, that's the most obvious hole in the line-up. I'm not so sure that Chavis couldn't be made into a "serviceable" second baseman. That's pure speculation on my part and would assume he could handle a pivot. Clearly from scouting reports he's not a good defender, but he's never graded out as poorly as people imply at 3B in the minors. I'd let him give 2B a go before completely dismissing it.
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 16, 2018 11:14:05 GMT -5
So serviceable as in Nunez is serviceable ...?
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Post by manfred on Aug 16, 2018 11:46:57 GMT -5
I think Chavis at second is not likely to happen or be a good idea. He’d have to put up massive numbers to counter what would likely be inadequate defense. Plus, if his one real defensive asset is his arm, I’d rather see him move to right field.
If anyone in the mid-to-upper minors moves to second, let it be Chatham. For now, though, Dalbec and Chavis are far enough away they should just continue to develop as much as possible at natural positions until the Sox see what they have. A wealth of power at 3B is a great problem.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 16, 2018 12:43:19 GMT -5
So serviceable as in Nunez is serviceable ...? Actually Nunez is disserviceable at 2b. Hopefully that's not the case with Chavis.
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Post by Coreno on Aug 16, 2018 19:06:03 GMT -5
I've wondered how Dalbec would profile in RF...
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 16, 2018 20:58:17 GMT -5
I think Chavis at second is not likely to happen or be a good idea. He’d have to put up massive numbers to counter what would likely be inadequate defense... I see where you're going here. When it comes to offense covering for defense at 2B, there's the good, the bad, and the Uggla.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 16, 2018 22:07:53 GMT -5
I think Chavis at second is not likely to happen or be a good idea. He’d have to put up massive numbers to counter what would likely be inadequate defense... I see where you're going here. When it comes to offense covering for defense at 2B, there's the good, the bad, and the Uggla. Dan Uggla was worth 24 FWAR over 7 seasons.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 16, 2018 23:36:35 GMT -5
25+ over his 10 year career, according to BR, that is until you subtract his defense. That knocks 30% right off the top. Obvious that I should have set my comment off in italics.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 17, 2018 15:53:19 GMT -5
In any event, there will almost assuredly be a bit of blocking in the next few years with Devers, Dalbec, Ockimey, and Chavis plus a full outfield. Hopefully Casas will be on their heels a few years later. I know it usually works itself out, but there aren’t a lot of positions to move to for these guys. Here's how I'd rank these players: Devers . . . . . . . . . . Chavis Dalbec Ockimey Devers isn't going anywhere and I can't imagine they'll move him off third either. From there, you deal with how it shakes out.
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Post by manfred on Aug 17, 2018 16:42:15 GMT -5
Devers looks to me like a guy who might end up being better than all the young system guys but Betts. Maybe I grade too easy, but I feel really good about his season. And he seems to want to keep improving. I am very, very bullish on RD.
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