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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,140
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Post by cdj on Mar 31, 2022 16:24:00 GMT -5
If he starts striking out at a major league average rate he’s got some silver sluggers in his future With his barrel and hard hit percentages, if he even lowers his strikeouts to around 27-29%, he's a well above average hitter. It's crazy how much potential he has, all he needs is to either cut down on his whiffs or just become more disciplined. Just when I was out on him he dragged me back in last year. Very excited to see him this upcoming season
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Post by patford on Mar 31, 2022 16:52:36 GMT -5
Reasons why "In Bloom we Trust." 1. He didn't trade Dalbec.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 31, 2022 17:00:19 GMT -5
Reasons why "In Bloom we Trust." 1. He didn't trade Dalbec. Dalbec is pretty much boom or bust, at this point there's no telling in three months if we'll be saying well I still trust Bloom but he didn't trade dalbec and mean the opposite of how you're saying it now.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 31, 2022 17:44:12 GMT -5
If he starts striking out at a major league average rate he’s got some silver sluggers in his future With his barrel and hard hit percentages, if he even lowers his strikeouts to around 27-29%, he's a well above average hitter. It's crazy how much potential he has, all he needs is to either cut down on his whiffs or just become more disciplined. Yeah, if he does keep it just below 30% by a few points, his OPS "only" sits right around 1.000 ... check and see how many batters hit that mark last year.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 31, 2022 19:17:10 GMT -5
With his barrel and hard hit percentages, if he even lowers his strikeouts to around 27-29%, he's a well above average hitter. It's crazy how much potential he has, all he needs is to either cut down on his whiffs or just become more disciplined. Yeah, if he does keep it just below 30% by a few points, his OPS "only" sits right around 1.000 ... check and see how many batters hit that mark last year. This is absurd and that's why I like it. He still has a few years before his "typical" power peak at 27-29, but also he's got a few years to learn what Bogey did: selective aggression. Seems like just seeking pitches to drive early and adjusting his approach to shorten up with two strikes...idk. That's not an unreasonable lift for a guy, who's still well short of the Ted Williams "1000 PA and you know who he is" mark, to reduce his O-swing by 3% and up his Z-swing to 73-75%. His whiff rate jumps when he's 1-1 so he's better off hunting strikes early (Z up) and being selective later (O down). Been trending that way anyway. Dalbec brought his hard hit rate up over 8% in the course of the year in 2021. Seems like he's just plain learning to hit. If he does, even in the marginal (45) hit tool area...zoinks. As soon as he makes pitchers scared to throw that first strike, he's going to get in hitter's counts really quickly. Peak Khris Davis (their careers are oddly similar statistically to this point aside from the ludicrous K rate difference) or slightly better, plus some defensive value/versatility is where I'd put his O/U. That's good cake. If he gets down to Davis's 26.7% K rate and can beat his 8.6% BB rate (say, 11-13% area), he's treading superstar country.
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Post by Guidas on Mar 31, 2022 20:02:39 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 31, 2022 22:08:46 GMT -5
Yes, it's been mentioned in previous posts in this thread. Add: But I think you're right, the link wasn't posted.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 1, 2022 7:15:02 GMT -5
Reasons why "In Bloom we Trust." 1. He didn't trade Dalbec. Dalbec is pretty much boom or bust, at this point there's no telling in three months if we'll be saying well I still trust Bloom but he didn't trade dalbec and mean the opposite of how you're saying it now. "Boom or bust" Don't agree, even with what he has done in his first 7 months of MLB playing time he is a serviceable player and average with a career OPS of 819. It is just that he gets to that average by being terrible half the time and being one of the best hitters in baseball the other half. If he progresses just a little more he is a very good player and all indications show he is doing just that. How about a 265/325/525 season this year, that is completely in the realm of possibility this yr for a guy with his experience and track record. And IMO he could easily surpass those numbers and be closer to a 900 OPS player. How would that look added to this Sox lineup.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 1, 2022 8:32:13 GMT -5
Dalbec is pretty much boom or bust, at this point there's no telling in three months if we'll be saying well I still trust Bloom but he didn't trade dalbec and mean the opposite of how you're saying it now. "Boom or bust" Don't agree, even with what he has done in his first 7 months of MLB playing time he is a serviceable player and average with a career OPS of 819. It is just that he gets to that average by being terrible half the time and being one of the best hitters in baseball the other half. If he progresses just a little more he is a very good player and all indications show he is doing just that. How about a 265/325/525 season this year, that is completely in the realm of possibility this yr for a guy with his experience and track record. And IMO he could easily surpass those numbers and be closer to a 900 OPS player. How would that look added to this Sox lineup. It's certainly a question of consistency with him but I don't think I would be in the wrong questioning whether his stretch where he was one of the best hitters in the league is something he's going to do again. I'm not going to do the whole well take that out and he was unplayable argument. I believe he deserves the chance to play everyday and prove what type of player he is. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if at the end of the year we're looking at a guy we wish we'd traded. I wouldn't be surprised if we're happy we didn't. I guess my main thought is I still have no idea what the heck dalbec is as a player yet. So to me he's still boom or bust.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 1, 2022 8:49:07 GMT -5
"Boom or bust" Don't agree, even with what he has done in his first 7 months of MLB playing time he is a serviceable player and average with a career OPS of 819. It is just that he gets to that average by being terrible half the time and being one of the best hitters in baseball the other half. If he progresses just a little more he is a very good player and all indications show he is doing just that. How about a 265/325/525 season this year, that is completely in the realm of possibility this yr for a guy with his experience and track record. And IMO he could easily surpass those numbers and be closer to a 900 OPS player. How would that look added to this Sox lineup. It's certainly a question of consistency with him but I don't think I would be in the wrong questioning whether his stretch where he was one of the best hitters in the league is something he's going to do again. I'm not going to do the whole well take that out and he was unplayable argument. I believe he deserves the chance to play everyday and prove what type of player he is. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if at the end of the year we're looking at a guy we wish we'd traded. I wouldn't be surprised if we're happy we didn't. I guess my main thought is I still have no idea what the heck dalbec is as a player yet. So to me he's still boom or bust. I get what you are saying, I am sure we both want to see the same thing in the end. I am just more bullish on him and generally more of an optimist when it comes to everything to do with Boston sports. It is more fun for me that way as I am always hopeful for great things and when it doesn't happen I just move on. Can't win every year but I truly believe BD is going to be very good. What he is learning about that longer stance with no leg lift without losing too much power could be a epiphany for him.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 1, 2022 9:07:06 GMT -5
It's certainly a question of consistency with him but I don't think I would be in the wrong questioning whether his stretch where he was one of the best hitters in the league is something he's going to do again. I'm not going to do the whole well take that out and he was unplayable argument. I believe he deserves the chance to play everyday and prove what type of player he is. All I'm saying is that I wouldn't be surprised if at the end of the year we're looking at a guy we wish we'd traded. I wouldn't be surprised if we're happy we didn't. I guess my main thought is I still have no idea what the heck dalbec is as a player yet. So to me he's still boom or bust. I get what you are saying, I am sure we both want to see the same thing in the end. I am just more bullish on him and generally more of an optimist when it comes to everything to do with Boston sports. It is more fun for me that way as I am always hopeful for great things and when it doesn't happen I just move on. Can't win every year but I truly believe BD is going to be very good. What he is learning about that longer stance with no leg lift without losing too much power could be a epiphany for him. I think we're roughly on the same page. I'm cautiously optimistic and bullish on him. Some of the reports about the possible changes to his swing to cut down on Ks are intriguing. To me the Ks are obviously what it comes down to. As others have stated if he can be in that 27-30 percent range he can be a very valuable player. If not then his path to being a positive value player shrinks quite a bit.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 1, 2022 11:56:01 GMT -5
I'm not trying to make the comparison at all, but when Bobby went on a tear last year I had memories of Mike Napoli. That dude would just disappear for a month or two and then single handily carry an entire team for a month.
It would be nice if Dalbec could show more consistency, but I'll happily live with peaks and valleys if his defense can take a step forward.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 1, 2022 12:12:36 GMT -5
I'm not trying to make the comparison at all, but when Bobby went on a tear last year I had memories of Mike Napoli. That dude would just disappear for a month or two and then single handily carry an entire team for a month. It would be nice if Dalbec could show more consistency, but I'll happily live with peaks and valleys if his defense can take a step forward. Going back a bit further I remember Jim Ed Rice doing the carrying for a month or so also. Pretty sure he never really disappeared for long stretches but he certainly did some carrying when he was hot. If Bobby D can be an 875 guy and Verdugo takes a leap forward this lineup is a murderers row. They are both entering their primes and have shown flashes so it is certainly not out of the question, I think people forget how good Duggy was in 2020.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 1, 2022 12:29:45 GMT -5
I'm not trying to make the comparison at all, but when Bobby went on a tear last year I had memories of Mike Napoli. That dude would just disappear for a month or two and then single handily carry an entire team for a month. It would be nice if Dalbec could show more consistency, but I'll happily live with peaks and valleys if his defense can take a step forward. Going back a bit further I remember Jim Ed Rice doing the carrying for a month or so also. Pretty sure he never really disappeared for long stretches but he certainly did some carrying when he was hot. If Bobby D can be an 875 guy and Verdugo takes a leap forward this lineup is a murderers row. They are both entering their primes and have shown flashes so it is certainly not out of the question, I think people forget how good Duggy was in 2020. Looking at last years qualified 1st baseman stats for OPS on espn. .835 would put him top 10. Even .800 would put him 11th. Honestly anywhere in the top 15 would be gravy in my mind so long as he plays an average-above average first base. The rest of lineup is so good that they really just need average production at the position. Obviously I'd love above average which would make the lineup even better. I certainly don't think .800 or more OPS is too much to ask out of him.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 1, 2022 12:52:25 GMT -5
Going back a bit further I remember Jim Ed Rice doing the carrying for a month or so also. Pretty sure he never really disappeared for long stretches but he certainly did some carrying when he was hot. If Bobby D can be an 875 guy and Verdugo takes a leap forward this lineup is a murderers row. They are both entering their primes and have shown flashes so it is certainly not out of the question, I think people forget how good Duggy was in 2020. Looking at last years qualified 1st baseman stats for OPS on espn. .835 would put him top 10. Even .800 would put him 11th. Honestly anywhere in the top 15 would be gravy in my mind so long as he plays an average-above average first base. The rest of lineup is so good that they really just need average production at the position. Obviously I'd love above average which would make the lineup even better. I certainly don't think .800 or more OPS is too much to ask out of him. It would put him Top 5 at 3rd or LF. I still say he's miscast at 1st. His wheels are good for a big guy and 3rd is his natural position. If they're looking to improve the D on the left side of the infield, he's potentially a good solution. Of course, Devers (#2 OPS at 3rd) may be less of a liability in LF/DH role after this year. Won't likely happen with his leverage, especially if he gets Machado money or better, but it would be the logical move.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 1, 2022 13:37:07 GMT -5
I'm not trying to make the comparison at all, but when Bobby went on a tear last year I had memories of Mike Napoli. That dude would just disappear for a month or two and then single handily carry an entire team for a month. It would be nice if Dalbec could show more consistency, but I'll happily live with peaks and valleys if his defense can take a step forward. I think that's actually a good comp, both stylistically and emotionally. Feels similar. Not all that different from JBJ's first several years either. His hot streaks were borderline obscene. I think Dalbec has a lot of space to get more consistent (as in, I think he's shown some adaptability and is likely to get to roughly Khris Davis production. I'd love to see him play multiple positions too. The 2b thing is both bizarre and remarkably intriguing.
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Post by telson13 on Apr 1, 2022 13:47:02 GMT -5
I'm not trying to make the comparison at all, but when Bobby went on a tear last year I had memories of Mike Napoli. That dude would just disappear for a month or two and then single handily carry an entire team for a month. It would be nice if Dalbec could show more consistency, but I'll happily live with peaks and valleys if his defense can take a step forward. Going back a bit further I remember Jim Ed Rice doing the carrying for a month or so also. Pretty sure he never really disappeared for long stretches but he certainly did some carrying when he was hot. If Bobby D can be an 875 guy and Verdugo takes a leap forward this lineup is a murderers row. They are both entering their primes and have shown flashes so it is certainly not out of the question, I think people forget how good Duggy was in 2020. Honestly, idk that Verdugo is ever going to be a real "first-division starter/borderline AS" but he's at least a league-average player with some room to grow. I'm more hopeful for Dalbec, who I think has some over .900 OPS seasons. But with Kiké (who had, by far, his best xwOBA last year and put up nearly 4 fWAR while being unlucky with HR/FB rate), Martinez, Dalbec, Bogey, Raffy, and Story they've got a pretty reasonable shot at having six 25-HR hitters.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 1, 2022 15:27:49 GMT -5
I'm not trying to make the comparison at all, but when Bobby went on a tear last year I had memories of Mike Napoli. That dude would just disappear for a month or two and then single handily carry an entire team for a month. It would be nice if Dalbec could show more consistency, but I'll happily live with peaks and valleys if his defense can take a step forward. Going back a bit further I remember Jim Ed Rice doing the carrying for a month or so also. Pretty sure he never really disappeared for long stretches but he certainly did some carrying when he was hot. If Bobby D can be an 875 guy and Verdugo takes a leap forward this lineup is a murderers row. They are both entering their primes and have shown flashes so it is certainly not out of the question, I think people forget how good Duggy was in 2020. Jim Rice had a .298 career batting average and a 15.7% career K rate. I don't get why his name would even be mentioned in a Dalbec thread. He carried the team just like any other hitter that was anywhere near as good as he was.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 1, 2022 16:12:16 GMT -5
I'm not trying to make the comparison at all, but when Bobby went on a tear last year I had memories of Mike Napoli. That dude would just disappear for a month or two and then single handily carry an entire team for a month. It would be nice if Dalbec could show more consistency, but I'll happily live with peaks and valleys if his defense can take a step forward. I think that's actually a good comp, both stylistically and emotionally. Feels similar. Not all that different from JBJ's first several years either. His hot streaks were borderline obscene. I think Dalbec has a lot of space to get more consistent (as in, I think he's shown some adaptability and is likely to get to roughly Khris Davis production. I'd love to see him play multiple positions too. The 2b thing is both bizarre and remarkably intriguing. I mean it's definitely not my worse comp ever, lol. Napoli walked a lot more, but so did Dalbec in the minors. I was looking back to his 2018 stint in AA, he didn't walk much when they first brought him up but then the next year he put up over a 15% BB rate at the level. The great thing about Dalbec is he doesn't have anywhere else to climb, he just needs to adjust to this level. The fact that the Sox are playing him in multiple positions says something about what they think about him too....I think they're pretty high on him. If we are right, and Casas smashes his way......Ok I'm done dreaming for today.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 1, 2022 18:40:12 GMT -5
Going back a bit further I remember Jim Ed Rice doing the carrying for a month or so also. Pretty sure he never really disappeared for long stretches but he certainly did some carrying when he was hot. If Bobby D can be an 875 guy and Verdugo takes a leap forward this lineup is a murderers row. They are both entering their primes and have shown flashes so it is certainly not out of the question, I think people forget how good Duggy was in 2020. Jim Rice had a .298 career batting average and a 15.7% career K rate. I don't get why his name would even be mentioned in a Dalbec thread. He carried the team just like any other hitter that was anywhere near as good as he was. Jim Rice was the most feared hitter in baseball 162 days per year for several years running. His only real Achilles heel was the GIDP but that's because he always hit the ball hard and a man on first would've been foolish to try to steal in front of him (not that any Sox did much running back then...). Bobby's a good kid who's off to a promising start.
But let's compare them anyway, just for fun:
In Bobby's first 8 months with BOS, he's had 3 months with an OPS+ of 140 or higher. In Jim Ed's first 8 months with BOS, he also had 3 months with an OPS+ of 140 or higher. In Jim Ed's next 30 months (five seasons) with BOS, he had 21 months with an OPS+ of 140 or higher. Put another way, Jim Ed had only nine months in those five seasons with an OPS+ under 140; only one of those months was under 100. Bobby D is under control by the Sox for the next five seasons. I think we'd all be very happy if he put up those kinds of dominant numbers that consistently. I'm not going to go out and bet on it, though...
EDIT: For a little context, in Raffy Devers's two big years to date, 2019 and 2021, he had an OPS+ over 140 in 5 of 12 months.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 1, 2022 20:21:14 GMT -5
Going back a bit further I remember Jim Ed Rice doing the carrying for a month or so also. Pretty sure he never really disappeared for long stretches but he certainly did some carrying when he was hot. If Bobby D can be an 875 guy and Verdugo takes a leap forward this lineup is a murderers row. They are both entering their primes and have shown flashes so it is certainly not out of the question, I think people forget how good Duggy was in 2020. Jim Rice had a .298 career batting average and a 15.7% career K rate. I don't get why his name would even be mentioned in a Dalbec thread. He carried the team just like any other hitter that was anywhere near as good as he was. Me neither. By time Rice was 26 he was completing his 3rd straight 200 hit season and whacking 39 HRs for the second time in 3 years, a year after winning the MVP with 46 HRs and 406 total bases, and of course having hit over .300 for the 3rd straight year. Other than being righthanded and being able to hit the ball a mile when they really get a hold of a pitch, what in the world does Jim Rice have to do with Bobby Dalbec?
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 2, 2022 2:50:41 GMT -5
Jim Rice had a .298 career batting average and a 15.7% career K rate. I don't get why his name would even be mentioned in a Dalbec thread. He carried the team just like any other hitter that was anywhere near as good as he was. Me neither. By time Rice was 26 he was completing his 3rd straight 200 hit season and whacking 39 HRs for the second time in 3 years, a year after winning the MVP with 46 HRs and 406 total bases, and of course having hit over .300 for the 3rd straight year. Other than being righthanded and being able to hit the ball a mile when they really get a hold of a pitch, what in the world does Jim Rice have to do with Bobby Dalbec? No reason to get your panties in a bunch guys, all I was saying is I remember him carrying the team.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,988
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Post by jimoh on Apr 2, 2022 6:01:54 GMT -5
Rice hit into many DPs in part because Boggs and Evans were always on base, but also in part because he did not appreciate the value of the walk and thought it was his job to drive in runs, even if that meant swinging at a ball out if the zone he could only hit on the ground. He was pretty great through age 26, but only pretty good after that, including an age 28 season that was worse than Dalbec’s 2021.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 2, 2022 9:09:23 GMT -5
Did a quick calculation and Dalbec's K rate this spring is right around 16% so far. Some of that has to be attributed to the level of pitching teams throw out there for training. But it probably reflects the new approach also. Very small sample size - 31 PAs - but that may be the lowest rate he's had for any extended period in the majors.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 2, 2022 9:41:30 GMT -5
Did a quick calculation and Dalbec's K rate this spring is right around 16% so far. Some of that has to be attributed to the level of pitching teams throw out there for training. But it probably reflects the new approach also. Very small sample size - 31 PAs - but that may be the lowest rate he's had for any extended period in the majors. Dalbec with a 20% k rate would be one of the best hitters in baseball.
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