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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 2, 2022 9:50:43 GMT -5
Did a quick calculation and Dalbec's K rate this spring is right around 16% so far. Some of that has to be attributed to the level of pitching teams throw out there for training. But it probably reflects the new approach also. Very small sample size - 31 PAs - but that may be the lowest rate he's had for any extended period in the majors. Dalbec with a 20% k rate would be one of the best hitters in baseball. We can dream.
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Post by manfred on Apr 2, 2022 9:55:26 GMT -5
How does his improved K% compare to other guys? That is, is there a trend in spring towards lower K-rates, or is his improvement distinct?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 2, 2022 10:29:27 GMT -5
I don't believe he's had anything close to that in prior preseasons. I don't have the game logs but the totals since he first appeared in spring training games, before this year, had him at a 32%K rate. I have no idea how it compares to other batters, but it is a big improvement for him. It could just be a random fluctuation but he's halved it so it's a good sign.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 2, 2022 11:23:58 GMT -5
I don't believe he's had anything close to that in prior preseasons. I don't have the game logs but the totals since he first appeared in spring training games, before this year, had him at a 32%K rate. I have no idea how it compares to other batters, but it is a big improvement for him. It could just be a random fluctuation but he's halved it so it's a good sign. This is interesting, and I hope it's not just small-sample noise but linked to the change in his 2-strike approach. Which reminds me, here's how much the game has changed in just over 10 years. If this was the 2003-2011 Red Sox, Dalbec like would be using his 2 strike approach for every pitch to maximize OBP and contact. Now with the emphasis on 3-outcomes, he is just trying to mitigate Ks and maximize BB and HRs. If his new approach is effective, his OBP will go up in a statistically significant manner (10 to 20 points is a rough guess). He is so strong, it may also increase his HRs significantly (3-7 per year). All of this is the product of back of the envelope math based on 600 ABs and a reduction of his K rate 3-7%, but I am sure someone can do better with better statistical knowledge.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 2, 2022 11:31:48 GMT -5
Am I crazy to think that maybe he should just use the 2 strike approach for every pitch? Dudes got plenty of power that it would seem even if he lost a bit he'd still hit plenty of HRs. I'd rather he hit 25-30 hrs and get on base at a better clip and lower his Ks than strikeout too much and hit 35-40 hrs. Maybe that's just me tho.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 2, 2022 15:02:21 GMT -5
I noted earlier that their rosters choices indicated that they were very high on him.
We here are aware of his impressive history of making adjustments, but most of the world is unaware of that.
And because he's a great big dude who hits the ball a mile, folks have always underestimated his athleticism.
Aaron Judge is a comp here. He's obviously not Aaron Judge, but he's closer to Judge than he is to the "Bobby Dalbec" that exists in most people's minds.
(I'll be in and out of the board today until the three opt-outs get resolved. After that, back to being overwhelmed by real life, maybe until opening day.)
(I do have a pretty thorough Pedey-is-aHOFer argument that I'll post if I can get myself to being merely whelmed.)
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 3, 2022 7:13:51 GMT -5
Am I crazy to think that maybe he should just use the 2 strike approach for every pitch? Dudes got plenty of power that it would seem even if he lost a bit he'd still hit plenty of HRs. I'd rather he hit 25-30 hrs and get on base at a better clip and lower his Ks than strikeout too much and hit 35-40 hrs. Maybe that's just me tho. Absolutely not crazy or alone, I was thinking the same thing. Or maybe that just makes me crazy also. But sure, if he feels as though he isn't losing that much power and he embraces the see ball hit ball mentality that he mentioned the other day maybe he becomes a completely different hitter and the sky is the limit. Today is the day of my fantasy league auction, the 30th season, and I am hoping to get Bobby for a reasonable price. I can see him hitting 35+ bombs this year.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 3, 2022 10:10:55 GMT -5
I noted earlier that their rosters choices indicated that they were very high on him. We here are aware of his impressive history of making adjustments, but most of the world is unaware of that. And because he's a great big dude who hits the ball a mile, folks have always underestimated his athleticism. Aaron Judge is a comp here. He's obviously not Aaron Judge, but he's closer to Judge than he is to the "Bobby Dalbec" that exists in most people's minds. (I'll be in and out of the board today until the three opt-outs get resolved. After that, back to being overwhelmed by real life, maybe until opening day.) (I do have a pretty thorough Pedey-is-aHOFer argument that I'll post if I can get myself to being merely whelmed.)
If Tony Lazzeri is a HOFer, so is Pedey.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 3, 2022 10:39:46 GMT -5
The obvious thing to go along with a declining k-rate is a big increase in bb-rate.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 14, 2022 7:31:01 GMT -5
If the tea leaves are saying both Raffy and Xander want top of the market money and the Sox don't want to go there then is Bobby the 3rd base insurance? Just like Story is at SS. Losing both those guys would really hurt but can you imagine the quality of prospects the Sox could have over the next few years by trading both. They could hypothetically have the best group of 20-22 yr olds by a strong margin. It would hurt but it could set the Sox up for a ten yr run, then again signing them could do the same thing.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 14, 2022 23:54:18 GMT -5
If the tea leaves are saying both Raffy and Xander want top of the market money and the Sox don't want to go there then is Bobby the 3rd base insurance? Just like Story is at SS. Losing both those guys would really hurt but can you imagine the quality of prospects the Sox could have over the next few years by trading both. They could hypothetically have the best group of 20-22 yr olds by a strong margin. It would hurt but it could set the Sox up for a ten yr run, then again signing them could do the same thing. I think we’re best off if Bobby D takes over at 3rd next year. TC to 1st and Devers to DH. Problem is Devers won’t take a DH contract which is what he was offered.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2022 4:22:04 GMT -5
If the tea leaves are saying both Raffy and Xander want top of the market money and the Sox don't want to go there then is Bobby the 3rd base insurance? Just like Story is at SS. Losing both those guys would really hurt but can you imagine the quality of prospects the Sox could have over the next few years by trading both. They could hypothetically have the best group of 20-22 yr olds by a strong margin. It would hurt but it could set the Sox up for a ten yr run, then again signing them could do the same thing. I think we’re best off if Bobby D takes over at 3rd next year. TC to 1st and Devers to DH. Problem is Devers won’t take a DH contract which is what he was offered. It's just 6 games, but Devers has been tremendous at 3B this year. StatCast has him as 15th in MLB in Runs Above Average, on a pace for +29 R / 150, and that's not counting his catching a runner off 1B on a foul popup, which took both being very heads-up and a rocket arm.
The team, BTW, ranks 3rd of 4th in defense so far.
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Post by patford on Apr 15, 2022 6:57:22 GMT -5
I think we’re best off if Bobby D takes over at 3rd next year. TC to 1st and Devers to DH. Problem is Devers won’t take a DH contract which is what he was offered. It's just 6 games, but Devers has been tremendous at 3B this year. StatCast has him as 15th in MLB in Runs Above Average, on a pace for +29 R / 150, and that's not counting his catching a runner off 1B on a foul popup, which took both being very heads-up and a rocket arm.
The team, BTW, ranks 3rd of 4th in defense so far.
Devers is frequently spectacular. And he is improving his consistency. My impression was he slightly regressed last year in terms of not making errors on routine plays but when I went and looked he showed the same incremental improvement he has shown every year (tossing out 2020 which wasn't a real season) not only improving his fielding percentage but making a huge leap in double plays.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 15, 2022 8:36:50 GMT -5
I think we’re best off if Bobby D takes over at 3rd next year. TC to 1st and Devers to DH. Problem is Devers won’t take a DH contract which is what he was offered. It's just 6 games, but Devers has been tremendous at 3B this year. StatCast has him as 15th in MLB in Runs Above Average, on a pace for +29 R / 150, and that's not counting his catching a runner off 1B on a foul popup, which took both being very heads-up and a rocket arm.
The team, BTW, ranks 3rd of 4th in defense so far.
So Devers plays great defense for 1 year/ maybe 2, then after he gets his $300,000,000 contract reverts back to over weight and awful defense (Pablo Sandoval) lite….. what are the chances….
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2022 10:51:19 GMT -5
I think we’re best off if Bobby D takes over at 3rd next year. TC to 1st and Devers to DH. Problem is Devers won’t take a DH contract which is what he was offered. It's just 6 games, but Devers has been tremendous at 3B this year. StatCast has him as 15th in MLB in Runs Above Average, on a pace for +29 R / 150, and that's not counting his catching a runner off 1B on a foul popup, which took both being very heads-up and a rocket arm.
The team, BTW, ranks 3rd of 4th in defense so far.
At least observationally, Devers has had several spectacular moments. Where he seems to trip up are routine plays, usually rushing or air-mailing throws. This is just focus and mechanics more than anything.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 15, 2022 11:25:03 GMT -5
Fun facts:
Sprint speed 2020:
Aaron Judge 26.8, Bobby Dalbec 26.8
Sprint speed 2021:
Aaron Judge 27.6, Bobby Dalbec 28.2.
He has the tools to play RF.
Verdugo was 27.4 - 27.5 and played RF and CF (he was 27.0 last year and it showed).
Betts healthy has been 27.9 to 28.3.
Can he learn to run good routes? If he can, he can end up in RF.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 15, 2022 12:05:42 GMT -5
Fun facts:
Sprint speed 2020:
Aaron Judge 26.8, Bobby Dalbec 26.8
Sprint speed 2021:
Aaron Judge 27.6, Bobby Dalbec 28.2.
He has the tools to play RF.
Verdugo was 27.4 - 27.5 and played RF and CF (he was 27.0 last year and it showed).
Betts healthy has been 27.9 to 28.3.
Can he learn to run good routes? If he can, he can end up in RF.
I was thinking about this last night. In a perfect world if TC pushes his way up in the 2nd half of this season I can see Bobby playing a little RF. Then we walk into next year and if we resign Devers and JD wants to stay which he keeps saying he is wants to then he could be our starting RF.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 15, 2022 12:29:32 GMT -5
There are underlying skills that do make you wonder whether Dalbec could play the outfield. Unfortunately, the fact that the Red Sox do not seem to have entertained this idea despite the fact they have only two MLB-quality starting outfielders is rather telling. And they are not an organization that has been shy about trying infielders in the outfield.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 15, 2022 12:32:34 GMT -5
There are underlying skills that do make you wonder whether Dalbec could play the outfield. Unfortunately, the fact that the Red Sox do not seem to have entertained this idea despite the fact they have only two MLB-quality starting outfielders is rather telling. And they are not an organization that has been shy about trying infielders in the outfield. It’ll think they said they were going to try him at OF and 2B. Kind of hard when he hasn’t even been playing 1B for that long and is still learning there too.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 15, 2022 12:37:05 GMT -5
There are underlying skills that do make you wonder whether Dalbec could play the outfield. Unfortunately, the fact that the Red Sox do not seem to have entertained this idea despite the fact they have only two MLB-quality starting outfielders is rather telling. And they are not an organization that has been shy about trying infielders in the outfield. It’ll think they said they were going to try him at OF and 2B. Kind of hard when he hasn’t even been playing 1B for that long and is still learning there too. "The Red Sox want the corner infielder to learn multiple positions, including outfield. “He’ll practice out there (in the outfield),” Cora said. “I don’t know if the timing is going to help us (shorter spring training because of the MLB lockout) but go out there, shag, move around. “The second base thing is real,” Cora added. “He work hard last year. And he was our second baseman the last half inning we played defense. So yeah, we’ll move him around. I think the more versatile, the better for him and his career, although he’s a good corner infielder. But for us, it will be great if he can play multiple positions.”" www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/03/boston-red-soxs-bobby-dalbec-to-work-at-second-base-outfield-it-will-be-great-if-he-can-play-multiple-positions.html
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 15, 2022 12:43:00 GMT -5
If he doesn't spend much time in the OF this year, especially after a Casas promotion, then I think it's safe to assume that he looks miserable there outside of games.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 15, 2022 12:47:59 GMT -5
Fun facts:
Sprint speed 2020:
Aaron Judge 26.8, Bobby Dalbec 26.8
Sprint speed 2021:
Aaron Judge 27.6, Bobby Dalbec 28.2.
He has the tools to play RF.
Verdugo was 27.4 - 27.5 and played RF and CF (he was 27.0 last year and it showed).
Betts healthy has been 27.9 to 28.3.
Can he learn to run good routes? If he can, he can end up in RF.
I suggested this in an email to the SP podcast about a year ago (I think it was around spring training, 2021) and it was summarily dismissed. "Not athletic."
I still think it's worth a shot. He's so eager to help the team any way he can (besides pitching -- and he was a very good pitcher in college, at least by the stats), I'm sure he would try his best.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 15, 2022 13:05:30 GMT -5
It’ll think they said they were going to try him at OF and 2B. Kind of hard when he hasn’t even been playing 1B for that long and is still learning there too. "The Red Sox want the corner infielder to learn multiple positions, including outfield. “He’ll practice out there (in the outfield),” Cora said. “I don’t know if the timing is going to help us (shorter spring training because of the MLB lockout) but go out there, shag, move around. “The second base thing is real,” Cora added. “He work hard last year. And he was our second baseman the last half inning we played defense. So yeah, we’ll move him around. I think the more versatile, the better for him and his career, although he’s a good corner infielder. But for us, it will be great if he can play multiple positions.”" www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/03/boston-red-soxs-bobby-dalbec-to-work-at-second-base-outfield-it-will-be-great-if-he-can-play-multiple-positions.htmlIt is a sensible idea, for sure. And maybe, with the lack of depth at first base (which may stop being a problem very, very soon), they don't think the time is right for trying it out. But like I said, I'll be more inclined to believe he can play the outfield when there's actually some sign that he's been trying to learn to play the outfield. Folks have been talking about this happening ever since Casas started coming up behind him and there hasn't been anything to it so far.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 15, 2022 13:43:50 GMT -5
If he doesn't spend much time in the OF this year, especially after a Casas promotion, then I think it's safe to assume that he looks miserable there outside of games. It's just a different animal. You can see the difference between infielders and outfielders in the way that Arroyo has played RF. Infielders keep their eye on the ball the whole time it's in the air, because of the way that the wind can push a pop up as it comes down, whereas good outfielders can take their eye off the ball briefly to look where they're going and run to the spot where they think the ball will be (part of "taking a good route"). Knowing where that spot will be is another thing many infielders take time learning. Hanley was a pretty good SS in his prime but he simply couldn't read a fly ball in the air in the OF. Arroyo seems to be struggling with that too. Some guys like the Brockstar can pick it up right away; maybe Bobby can be one of those guys.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 23, 2022 13:30:50 GMT -5
The thing is, sprint speed does not an outfielder make (see Duran, Jarren). First step and acceleration are also important and not taken into account by Statcast Sprint Speed. I'm more interested in home-to-first for this reason, as initial acceleration is more incorporated into how a runner activates and gets down the line.
I'm more into seeing what he looks like out there than previous but I'm skeptical. That said, I'd suggest that the team not exploring it further to this point is probably more due to Shaw not exactly setting the world on fire than anything else.
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