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Here's Another Homer Bobby Bombs: the Bobby Dalbec thread
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,130
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Post by cdj on Apr 24, 2022 7:55:17 GMT -5
Bobby giveth, Bobby taketh
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Post by Underwater Johnson on May 24, 2022 11:41:29 GMT -5
I've said this before when Bobby was struggling and now I have some data (SSS, of course) to back it up: Bobby needs to make a conscious effort to walk more or, if you prefer, do a better job of swinging at strikes and not swinging at balls. Here's the data: Franchy Cordero has played in 17 games since being called up at the beginning of the month. In his first 10 games, his line looked like this:
32 PA, 25 AB, 7 H, 2 2b, 6 BB, 5 K, good for a slash of .280/.406/.360 -- .766 OPS, 15.6% K, 18.8% BB
Those six walks stick out like a sore thumb compared to how he looked at the plate last year. In the past 7 games, his line looks like this:
23 PA, 23 AB, 5 H, 2 2b, 3b, HR, 0 BB, 7 K; .217/.217/.521 -- .739 OPS, 30.4% K, 0% BB
Obviously the walks are down and the Ks are up but when he's hitting the ball, he's hitting it hard. The lack of BBs may be an indication that pitchers were throwing him more strikes after he showed that he would take his walks and not chase. More strikes to swing at, he swung at them, and he's getting to his raw power. (Again, it's obviously a SSS....)
Overall numbers in 17 games: .250/.327/.429 -- .756 OPS, 21.8% K, 10.9% BB, which we'd all take the rest of the way.
Wouldn't it be great if Dalbec could do something similar? How about a ten game stretch where he really focuses on seeing pitches, not swinging so often, getting into hitters counts (something Franchy is not really doing, actually -- he seems to start a lot of ABs 0-2 and then has battled back), and taking walks if they're given to him. Could he double his walk rate over a 10-game stretch (it's currently at 8.3%). Could 10 games of showing pitchers that he's not going to chase bring more pitches into the zone and allow his raw power to flex?
If he doesn't turn things around soon, he's going to find himself in a place he doesn't want to be (nothing against Worcester -- I went to college there -- but he doesn't want to be there).
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Post by bcsox on May 24, 2022 22:06:38 GMT -5
With the way Franchy is going, getting a 10 game sample out of Bobby is going to take six weeks.
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hank
Rookie
Posts: 101
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Post by hank on May 25, 2022 9:18:49 GMT -5
Bobby needs to be sent down now. He's completely lost his confidence. He doesn't look relaxed at all at the plate. Going down will sting but it's for the best.
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Post by jimed14 on May 30, 2022 13:48:18 GMT -5
Dalbec's xwOBA is up to .317, the same as the entire Rays team.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 30, 2022 14:27:28 GMT -5
Dalbec's xwOBA is up to .317, the same as the entire Rays team. That's not a cumulative statistic, so I'm not sure why that matters. It's like comparing his batting average or something.
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Post by incandenza on May 30, 2022 14:40:28 GMT -5
He's been better lately (103 wRC+ in May, 123 since May 10th), but also you can't separate that from the fact that he's been platooned; he mostly hasn't had to face the pitching matchups that are toughest for him.
By the same token, though, a Franchy/Dalbec platoon looks pretty viable at the moment, and that's not an altogether bad thing.
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Post by jimed14 on May 30, 2022 16:33:37 GMT -5
Dalbec's xwOBA is up to .317, the same as the entire Rays team. That's not a cumulative statistic, so I'm not sure why that matters. It's like comparing his batting average or something. I know. It's just interesting that he'd be the average hitter on the Rays.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 25, 2023 11:53:27 GMT -5
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,851
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Post by nomar on Mar 25, 2023 11:57:01 GMT -5
That’s all well and good but his xwOBAcon is always great. There’s just not enough contact. I don’t care which direction he hits the ball as long as he is hitting it.
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Post by jmei on Mar 25, 2023 12:40:00 GMT -5
I imagine the idea is that if he’s less pull oriented, he’ll make more contact.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Mar 25, 2023 12:45:50 GMT -5
I’d hate to sell low on Bobby like we did with Benintendi.
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Post by carl4sox on Mar 25, 2023 12:56:28 GMT -5
Bennie was a good player once. We're still waiting for Bobby to be.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Mar 26, 2023 12:14:18 GMT -5
Bennie was a good player once. We're still waiting for Bobby to be. I don't need a spokesperson.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Mar 26, 2023 14:14:32 GMT -5
I’d hate to sell low on Bobby like we did with Benintendi. Expecting Bobby to turn a corner and garner any more value than he has now is like attempting to herd cats. Ain’t gonna happen…
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 14, 2023 10:56:22 GMT -5
I believe they're shopping him. I do not believe there are multiple execs, at least those with decision-making power, that think he's a potential MLB regular, or at least that don't think that's any better than an absolute best case, 100th percentile outcome. Otherwise he'd have been dealt a long time ago.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 9, 2023 21:57:50 GMT -5
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,130
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Post by cdj on Dec 9, 2023 22:01:26 GMT -5
Unfortunate he struck out 52% of the time
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 9, 2023 23:42:04 GMT -5
That's always been the key. The streaks where he's been able to get below 30% he's been very good. That just hasn't happened much.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Dec 10, 2023 20:58:02 GMT -5
That's always been the key. The streaks where he's been able to get below 30% he's been very good. That just hasn't happened much. I wonder if Dalbec can bring anything back in trade like a lower level minor leaguer or if his spot might eventually come up as a DFA (after the fungible relievers go)?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 10, 2023 21:38:57 GMT -5
That's always been the key. The streaks where he's been able to get below 30% he's been very good. That just hasn't happened much. I wonder if Dalbec can bring anything back in trade like a lower level minor leaguer or if his spot might eventually come up as a DFA (after the fungible relievers go)? I think if he could've brought something back, he'd be long gone by now...
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Dec 10, 2023 22:05:40 GMT -5
I wonder if Dalbec can bring anything back in trade like a lower level minor leaguer or if his spot might eventually come up as a DFA (after the fungible relievers go)? I think if he could've brought something back, he'd be long gone by now... Agreed, so at what point do the Red Sox DFA him, so he can try his luck with an team, or stated differently, does Hickey, Scott, or someone outside the organization take his place on the 40-man this offseason as the AAA RH backup to Casas?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,936
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 11, 2023 0:14:58 GMT -5
Many sportswriters spent all year asserting that Dalbec had "fallen out of favor" with the team, presumably because he was languishing in AAA.
He was, of course, the backup to Devers, Casas, and Turner, and after about August, Refsnyder (more on that in a moment), and none of them went on the IL until September. When Casas did they called him up and he was the best hitter on the team for a week (by all metrics). They then gave him an extra day off after an off day, and after that he was one of the worst hitters on the team. He finished in the middle of the pack for those games.
Also left nearly unmentioned anywhere is that he started 35 games in RF, including 18 of his last 23.
And Cora volunteered positive words about him, talking to the press at the Winter Meetings.
So, if Turner re-signs as expected, and assuming they won't have an all-RH bench, there's no spot for him on the MLB roster. It would be unfair to him to send him back to AAA. But you could trade Refsnyder at the end of ST and put Dalbec in his spot, with the added value that he plays not just RF but 3B and 1B, and SS in an emergency.
Refsnyder is a FA at the end of this tear and is a known commodity; Dalbec has 4 years control left and may well have upside. Interesting decision.
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Post by soxin8 on Dec 11, 2023 0:21:31 GMT -5
I think if he could've brought something back, he'd be long gone by now... Agreed, so at what point do the Red Sox DFA him, so he can try his luck with an team, or stated differently, does Hickey, Scott, or someone outside the organization take his place on the 40-man this offseason as the AAA RH backup to Casas? Hickey and Scott also hit left-handed.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 11, 2023 9:58:18 GMT -5
Many sportswriters spent all year asserting that Dalbec had "fallen out of favor" with the team, presumably because he was languishing in AAA. He was, of course, the backup to Devers, Casas, and Turner, and after about August, Refsnyder (more on that in a moment), and none of them went on the IL until September. When Casas did they called him up and he was the best hitter on the team for a week (by all metrics). They then gave him an extra day off after an off day, and after that he was one of the worst hitters on the team. He finished in the middle of the pack for those games. Also left nearly unmentioned anywhere is that he started 35 games in RF, including 18 of his last 23. And Cora volunteered positive words about him, talking to the press at the Winter Meetings. So, if Turner re-signs as expected, and assuming they won't have an all-RH bench, there's no spot for him on the MLB roster. It would be unfair to him to send him back to AAA. But you could trade Refsnyder at the end of ST and put Dalbec in his spot, with the added value that he plays not just RF but 3B and 1B, and SS in an emergency.
Refsnyder is a FA at the end of this tear and is a known commodity; Dalbec has 4 years control left and may well have upside. Interesting decision.
Without getting into any small sample discussion: If an extra day off is going to mess up a role player like Dalbec would be, then he's not a better fit than Refsnyder, who has shown the ability to stay sharp and have good at-bats with inconsistent playing time. Some, I might even argue many, players need to play every day to stay their sharpest. If that player's sharpest isn't quite good enough to be an everyday guy, well, that's why being a quality backup is a hard job. Refsnyder's ability to offer relatively consistent play with inconsistent playing time is an underrated part of his value.
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