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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by telson13 on May 5, 2019 20:10:34 GMT -5
The craziest thing to me about Duran is that his numbers in college are so drastically different from now. In none of his three seasons at Long Beach State did he ever hit above .310 which isn't that high of a threshold in college for a legitimate draft prospect. In none of his stops at Lowell, Greenville, and now Salem has he hit below .340. Similarly, his BABIPs in college ranged from .322 to .379, and now range from .406 to .514 across his professional career. Before someone jumps in and explains that Long Beach State preaches a 'hit the ball in the ground and run it out' approach, I get that...but was he truly never even trying to hit line drives in college? If so, thats kind of crazy. I mean he still hits GBs at a healthy rate now, over 50% at each stop. Was he hitting >60% GBs in college?! Its certainly not like we should expect the defenses to be better in the Big West than in the Minors so the BABIP difference is really notable. The difference in his numbers overall is pretty astonishing, and that it happened immediately after he was drafted (and didn't take a year or two to develop) is also kind of crazy. One theory re: the approach at Long Beach that I posited is that, if you look at Duran’s spray charts, he uses his speed to get a fair number of INF hits. He may have lost a few of those in college hitting with an aluminum bat, with higher EVs helping left-side fielders against his speed. Then again, it doesn’t explain the IsoP change, so I’ve got to think there’s been some coaching in the org to raise his LA. He’s at roughly 50/25/25 GB/LD/FB with few IFFB so I can’t imagine his average LA is much more than 5-8 degrees. But looking at his collegiate results, that might still be an improvement. Kind of like Tzu-Wei Lin when he went from super-GB heavy to hitting on a line. Idk if Duran’s made such a drastic change as that, and its tougher to tell cuz it apparently occurred on arrival to, not during, pro ball. He’ll be going to the AFL almost assuredly so maybe we’ll get some statcast on him then.
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Post by telson13 on May 5, 2019 20:21:39 GMT -5
They are similar, but Ellsbury hit the ball with an authority at this point in his development that Duran does not. Duran looks like he might have the physical tools to get there with some adjustments, but that's no guarantee. That said, Ellsbury also has (had?) a 30+ bWAR career and had two season when he got MVP votes, so there's a lot of space for Duran to be Ellsbury-lite and still very productive. Based on ? Can you explain then why Duran is out IsoPing Jacoby at every level ? Jacoby had a .119 IsoP at Salem. Jarren has a .159 IsoP. I see posts saying he hits infield singles and goes opposite field yet that's not at all what I've seen in the limited looks I've seen on MilB. I've only seen line drives and hard grounders to all fields. I'm really curious where that's coming from. Yeah, I kinda paused at this too. As you mention, the raw data support Duran having more XB power. FWIW, I’ve mentioned him going oppo-heavy and I think the IFH help, but he’s very obviously driving the ball (oppo or not) to be putting up the XB totals he has. For example, his .200 IsoP in Lowell is obviously somewhat of a mirage, with 10 3b in 168 PA. Some of that Iso”P” is coming from his legs, as he’s squeezing triples (or IPHR) from doubles and maybe even a few doubles from singles. But in the case of the former, he’s still gotta be ripping the ball in the first place. And I also appreciate the argument earlier re: his IsoD...he’s been so hot and seeing the ball so well, I think he’s disinclined to be patient and work walks. We’ll see that as he climbs the ladder, better fielding lowers his BABIP and BA, and he starts looking for other ways to get on base.
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Post by telson13 on May 5, 2019 20:33:39 GMT -5
For some BABIP perspective... Last year the MLB Leader was JDM at .375 So far, there are 13 players with higher BABIP's than JDM had last year with the leader being Tim Anderson at .435. BABIP will normalize. Duran's BABIP went up again tonight. I mentioned this in another thread, but I think a large part of it is oppo-hitting. GB hurt his less cuz they’re left-side giving him a chance to take advantage of his speed (and the pressure on the D). Derek Jeter was a BABIP king, .350 for his career, with lots of singles to RF. He had more loft than Duran, but in Fenway...with a little more loft, Duran would be frightening. Wade Boggs was a .344 lifetime BABIP guy (and usually .360-.390 during his heyday), with substantially less speed than Jeter, and obviously oceans from Duran. I couldn’t find splits on Boggs, but I’d bet his BABIP in Fenway was probably 30-50 points higher than on the road.
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Post by James Dunne on May 5, 2019 21:40:35 GMT -5
Boggs had a .386 career BABIP at Fenway, highlighted by .463 in 1985.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 6, 2019 0:57:38 GMT -5
The above is why I said I wanted to see him in Portland. Not so much because there's any hurry but more because I want to see what adjustments he makes for the Maine Monster.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,261
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Post by radiohix on May 8, 2019 14:41:41 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on May 8, 2019 21:31:54 GMT -5
Haha! Just came to post that. Love the call on 80 speed. Still trying to remember to get on with him or Longenhagen and hear their thoughts on the silly BABIP.
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Post by telson13 on May 8, 2019 21:35:08 GMT -5
The above is why I said I wanted to see him in Portland. Not so much because there's any hurry but more because I want to see what adjustments he makes for the Maine Monster. Should also give an idea of how much of the BABIP is due to defense, since the quality/consistency of defensive play seems to take a pretty good leap high-A to AA. If he’s still rockin’ a .400, I’m gonna really start believing in him as a potential LD-Oppo-true-talent mid-300s guy.
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Post by ramireja on May 9, 2019 11:40:16 GMT -5
I had to look at Matt Duffy's college and minors stats given that mention from Kiley McDaniel. Oh my god, his transformation was even more extreme....I'm not sure how he got drafted (nice pick by the Giants).
In three years at Long Beach State, Duffy's OPS sat between .536-.625 with IsoP between .024-.047 (not a typo). Pitiful. His short season debut directly following his draft selection resembled his college output: .647 OPS, .039 ISO
The next year, he improved dramatically and never looked back: Across Low-A, High-A, and AA, his OPS sat between .823-.851 with IsoP between .111 and .217. Drafted in 2012 with absolutely meager college stats, Duffy was called up to the bigs in 2014 and batted .295/.334/.428 for the Giants in 2015.
Long story short, Long Beach State needs to fire all of their coaches. (Also, we should draft every Long Beach State draft-eligible player before Round 10). (Also, this adds to my excitement for Duran).
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nomar
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Posts: 10,787
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Post by nomar on May 9, 2019 11:44:06 GMT -5
I had to look at Matt Duffy's college and minors stats given that mention from Kiley McDaniel. Oh my god, his transformation was even more extreme....I'm not sure how he got drafted (nice pick by the Giants). In three years at Long Beach State, Duffy's OPS sat between .536-.625 with IsoP between .024-.047 (not a typo). Pitiful. His short season debut directly following his draft selection resembled his college output: .647 OPS, .039 ISO The next year, he improved dramatically and never looked back: Across Low-A, High-A, and AA, his OPS sat between .823-.851 with IsoP between .111 and .217. Drafted in 2012 with absolutely meager college stats, Duffy was called up to the bigs in 2014 and batted .295/.334/.428 for the Giants in 2015. Long story short, Long Beach State needs to fire all of their coaches. (Also, we should draft every Long Beach State draft-eligible player before Round 10). (Also, this adds to my excitement for Duran). Matt Duffy is also a good comp based on batted ball profile. He goes opposite field more than almost everyone in baseball, and Duran goes opposite field a ton as well.
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Post by ramireja on May 9, 2019 22:31:58 GMT -5
Where did that chart come from ? I'd like to see one on Duran but haven't been able to find one now that MLBfarms no longer does them.
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Post by ramireja on May 9, 2019 22:33:08 GMT -5
Baseball Savant. Oddly enough, when Duran pulls the ball....he gets his hits in the exact same spot.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 9, 2019 23:24:39 GMT -5
Baseball Savant. Oddly enough, when Duran pulls the ball....he gets his hits in the exact same spot. The same is somewhat true for center and left but a proportionate decline. That could be due to the amount of time the bat is in the zone, more time, better aim. To me this spray chart says it's a hit them where the ain't approach. Note too that there isn't an abundance of infield singles which somewhat reduces the infielder range speculation. There are almost no swinging bunts, he's making solid contact.
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2019 8:05:30 GMT -5
Baseball Savant. Oddly enough, when Duran pulls the ball....he gets his hits in the exact same spot. The same is somewhat true for center and left but a proportionate decline. That could be due to the amount of time the bat is in the zone, more time, better aim. To me this spray chart says it's a hit them where the ain't approach. Note too that there isn't an abundance of infield singles which somewhat reduces the infielder range speculation. There are almost no swinging bunts, he's making solid contact. So I'm not sure I agree with that? 12 infield hits is a lot. Also: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jarren-duran-680776?stats=career-r-visuals-milbHis BABIP is .833, it appears, on balls to right field. But they're not spread out to right field, they're all to the same place. I can understand fielders playing deep on him to cut off the gaps because of his speed, but that's the sort of adjustment that's going to get made. His batting average is 40 points lower if right fielders play him in 15 feet. Four of those singles to right field are against Myrtle Beach. The way he uses all of left field, though, combined with his speed? That's going to lead to a very high BABIP. Not a BABIP over .500, but one where if it was like .370 I wouldn't write it off as luck. If someone has a particularly good center fielder then the left fielder could probably cheat the line a little bit to cut down on doubles, but it's pretty clear he's dangerous in that direction.
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Post by jimed14 on May 10, 2019 8:24:18 GMT -5
Baseball Savant. Oddly enough, when Duran pulls the ball....he gets his hits in the exact same spot. Well the RF should know where to stand so that could be a problem.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 10, 2019 8:38:29 GMT -5
The same is somewhat true for center and left but a proportionate decline. That could be due to the amount of time the bat is in the zone, more time, better aim. To me this spray chart says it's a hit them where the ain't approach. Note too that there isn't an abundance of infield singles which somewhat reduces the infielder range speculation. There are almost no swinging bunts, he's making solid contact. So I'm not sure I agree with that? 12 infield hits is a lot. Also: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jarren-duran-680776?stats=career-r-visuals-milbHis BABIP is .833, it appears, on balls to right field. But they're not spread out to right field, they're all to the same place. I can understand fielders playing deep on him to cut off the gaps because of his speed, but that's the sort of adjustment that's going to get made. His batting average is 40 points lower if right fielders play him in 15 feet. Four of those singles to right field are against Myrtle Beach. The way he uses all of left field, though, combined with his speed? That's going to lead to a very high BABIP. Not a BABIP over .500, but one where if it was like .370 I wouldn't write it off as luck. If someone has a particularly good center fielder then the left fielder could probably cheat the line a little bit to cut down on doubles, but it's pretty clear he's dangerous in that direction. I'm not so sure I agree with that assessment but time will tell. For one thing, 12 hits is only about 25% of his 46 hits. 12 is a lot but 46 is a lot as well. Take away 4 or 5 and he's still batting around 350. Look at the spray, no way to really shift on him, even the Rays will be reluctant to do that. As far as outfielders playing in, especially to the pull side, he has enough raw power and bat control to become significantly more dangerous with shallow defenders. The line drives are pretty obviously intentional. Play him in and his slugging will go up exponentially. There's also the case that a good center fielder isn't going to help them in left field much at Fenway. Speed and bat control are are one hell of a dynamic. It's going to be fun to watch.
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Post by James Dunne on May 10, 2019 9:14:05 GMT -5
So I'm not sure I agree with that? 12 infield hits is a lot. Also: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/jarren-duran-680776?stats=career-r-visuals-milbHis BABIP is .833, it appears, on balls to right field. But they're not spread out to right field, they're all to the same place. I can understand fielders playing deep on him to cut off the gaps because of his speed, but that's the sort of adjustment that's going to get made. His batting average is 40 points lower if right fielders play him in 15 feet. Four of those singles to right field are against Myrtle Beach. The way he uses all of left field, though, combined with his speed? That's going to lead to a very high BABIP. Not a BABIP over .500, but one where if it was like .370 I wouldn't write it off as luck. If someone has a particularly good center fielder then the left fielder could probably cheat the line a little bit to cut down on doubles, but it's pretty clear he's dangerous in that direction. I'm not so sure I agree with that assessment but time will tell. For one thing, 12 hits is only about 25% of his 46 hits. 12 is a lot but 46 is a lot as well. Take away 4 or 5 and he's still batting way over 300. Look at the spray, no way to really shift on him, even the Rays will be reluctant to do that. As far as outfielders playing in, especially to the pull side, he has enough raw power and bat control to become significantly more dangerous with shallow defenders. The line drives are pretty obviously intentional. Play him in and his slugging will go up exponentially. There's also the case that a good center fielder isn't going to help them in left field much at Fenway. Speed and bat control are are one hell of a dynamic. It's going to be fun to watch. Yeah, but it also starts to add up. Better infield defense probably takes away four hits, and better right fielder positioning probably takes away another 4-5. We're talking 70 points of batting average at that point, and he's out here doing something like .320/.375/.440. Let's not get that twisted, that's wonderful, especially for a first year pro in the Carolina League who is spreading out the whole field and isn't showing any particular weakness and might a 30+ stolen base guy. But that's more like "ok, this guy is worth paying attention to" rather than him being a sensation. And saying all that, I look at the system and I could absolutely rank him in the top four. Fenway is going to be interesting for him, because he's hitting the ball to left field a ton, but he's not getting the ball up over the left fielder's head. We kinda take for granted that a guy like that can pepper the monster, but that's tough to do against major league pitching. And as we all know, the left fielder can play a little bit more shallow, taking away a few of those singles.
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Post by ramireja on May 10, 2019 11:35:43 GMT -5
Moved some of our Duran convo from the gameday thread here
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 10, 2019 12:59:42 GMT -5
This gets more interesting all the time. First of all, I've not seen the guy play so this is off of the hit chart and the analyst's take.
That said, the 80 grade on his running is a revelation. I've never seen that for a Sox' prospect. That puts him in a group that has very limited membership. We're talking Billy Hamilton speed. But Hamilton is a banjo hitter, and Duran looks as if he's carrying a guitar. If all the conjecture about his college training is correct and he increases his power going forward, that may be an electric guitar.
There are no sports, none, where speed doesn't cause enormous pressure by inducing time constraints on defenses. That in turn invariably leads to more errors, to the offense's advantage. If he's really that fast that pressure will travel with him as he moves up to AA and to the majors if he makes it that far. That's just the way it is.
Just as interesting is the hit chart. The point about bat control looks to be right on. It's a minuscule sample size but both triples were also stamped into the same turf. That's also a rare gift, that's if he's good enough to replicate his swings consistently.
Now, add a little more clout and you've got a very dangerous hitter.
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Post by jimed14 on May 10, 2019 13:04:37 GMT -5
This gets more interesting all the time. First of all, I've not seen the guy play so this is off of the hit chart and the analyst's take. That said, the 80 grade on his running is a revelation. I've never seen that for a Sox' prospect. That puts him in a group that has very limited membership. We're talking Billy Hamilton speed. But Hamilton is a banjo hitter, and Duran looks as if he's carrying a guitar. If all the conjecture about his college training is correct and he increases his power going forward, that may be an electric guitar. There are no sports, none, where speed doesn't cause enormous pressure by inducing time constraints on defenses. That in turn invariably leads to more errors, to the offense's advantage. If he's really that fast that pressure will travel with him as he moves up to AA and to the majors if he makes it that far. That's just the way it is. Just as interesting is the hit chart. The point about bat control looks to be right on. It's a minuscule sample size but both triples were also stamped into the same turf. That's also a rare gift, that's if he's good enough to replicate his swings consistently. Now, add a little more clout and you've got a very dangerous hitter. Plus everyone who hits while he is on base will have a big advantage because the pitcher is forced to worry about him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 10, 2019 13:15:29 GMT -5
Is Duran actually faster than what Ellsbury was when he was coming up? Ellsbury could fly back then. I remember him coming home from 2nd base on a grounder, or at least I think I do. And he was a threat to steal anytime, even homeplate, which he did against the Yankees and Andy Pettitte in 2009. Hard to imagine that Duran would be faster than Ellsbury.
Honestly, when you're doing the top prospects on the Sox, I think you look at Chavis #1, because he has the ability to be a regular, although the rap against him was that he might be a second division regular. Thus far, I think that's a bad rap. I think this kid can be a regular on a team with World Champion aspirations - and at the moment I don't see why not.
I think Casas has a future being a monster in the middle of the order. He'd be my #2 prospect on the Sox. There's a long way to go between now and then, but it's really not that difficult seeing his power consistency increase as he moves up the ladder with more experience. Like Chavis, if he keeps his K's a reasonable rate, I could see him coming up hitting 25 plus HRs per year.
Then I'd put Duran #3. I think he's playing himself into a starting CF, top of the order type player. I'm not sure if all these infield hits he's getting, etc. will directly translate, but there's enough to like to think that he can be a major league regular. The question is how good of one?
I think those are the three most likeliest players in the minor league system (including Boston's young 2b Chavis) to be impactful players. I don't think the Red Sox have any pitchers that project to have the kind of impact that Chavis, Casas, and Duran will have, and I think it's an increasing gap between those three players and the rest of the system.
If Dalbec can manage his K issue, then he could be a regular, #6 type hitter, three true outcomes with solid 3b defense, but the certainty of that is a lot less in my opinion. I feel more confident in the abilities of Chavis, Casas, and Duran.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 10, 2019 22:49:02 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 13, 2019 19:37:02 GMT -5
I was thinking about the expression "would pay to see". In my lifetime, largely due to circumstances, there are only two players I've actually specifically paid to see. No Red Sox because I was going to see the Red Sox, not just one player. The two players are Nolan Ryan and Ricky Henderson. I'm not expecting Duran to be Henderson level good, Henderson level exciting to watch would be fun.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,261
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Post by radiohix on May 13, 2019 22:11:49 GMT -5
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Post by libertine on May 13, 2019 22:34:24 GMT -5
Surely they'll have to promote him soon. He is putting up video game type of numbers. What is accomplished keeping him in Salem? He has proved imo that he is above this level at this point. Let's see him against more skilled competition...
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