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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by Guidas on May 18, 2023 12:31:40 GMT -5
FWIW even with a lot of regression he still grades out as a fantastic player. ZiPS projects him to hit .265/.322/.429 the rest of the way, good for a 100 wRC+, with 9 HR, 15 SB and plus D in center. That equates to a 3.2 WAR full season projection, which would make him a top 20 OF in baseball, tied with Kyle Tucker and Ian Happ. Considering he should really be hitting in the bottom 3rd of the lineup that is a really, really good player to have. The real question in my mind is how this changes the outlook of the team over the next several years. He doesn't even hit arbitration until 2026. If he is a legitimate 3+ WAR CF that gives the org a lot more options going forward when it comes to trades and free agents. Pay the man. Seriously, though - he first came up in 2021. Does that mean the Sox only have control until 2026? He only has two option years left, including this year. If he is a FA after 2026 and they believe All World All Star Jarren Duran™ is the real deal, they should probably work out some kind of extension in the off-season and try to buy out his first 2-3 years of free agency. Otherwise, if he does this or even similar in 2024, his agent will likely advise him to ride it out to free agency. If, on the other hand, because of his relatively limited service time, he doesn't get to free agency until 2028 or 2029, he's going to get screwed out of a ton of cash.
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Post by incandenza on May 18, 2023 12:36:13 GMT -5
Just want everyone to know that I never believed in Duran, even when he was getting into the top 50 in prospect lists. I was consistent about it, and secure in my belief. And now...? League MVP.
jk. Now... well, I'd say I'm having a hard time coming up with reasons why he shouldn't project to be a 2-3 WAR player over the next several years. And there may be upside beyond that as well.
The thing is, I never completely discounted the possibility that his bat could come around. But for the life of me I didn't - and still don't - understand how he could be so bad on defense after several years of trying it out there, and then just suddenly flip a switch and be good at it. But damned if he hasn't done it; and the metrics and eyeballs agree on it, too.
So even with regression to average CF defense and an average offensive line, if you add that to the CF positional adjustment that's like a 2.5-3 WAR player right there.
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Post by Guidas on May 18, 2023 12:43:00 GMT -5
League MVP. jk. Now... well, I'd say I'm having a hard time coming up with reasons why he shouldn't project to be a 2-3 WAR player over the next several years. And there may be upside beyond that as well.
The thing is, I never completely discounted the possibility that his bat could come around. But for the life of me I didn't - and still don't - understand how he could be so bad on defense after several years of trying it out there, and then just suddenly flip a switch and be good at it. But damned if he hasn't done it; and the metrics and eyeballs agree on it, too.
So even with regression to average CF defense and an average offensive line, if you add that to the CF positional adjustment that's like a 2.5-3 WAR player right there. Duran did speak of a confidence problem last year. The fear of screwing up can cause a ton of hesitation - never a good thing in sports. That, and I believe Dustin Pedroia came to camp, jumped up on a step stool, got in his face and put the fear of God and Dustin Pedroia into him.
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Post by awalkinthepark on May 18, 2023 12:58:47 GMT -5
FWIW even with a lot of regression he still grades out as a fantastic player. ZiPS projects him to hit .265/.322/.429 the rest of the way, good for a 100 wRC+, with 9 HR, 15 SB and plus D in center. That equates to a 3.2 WAR full season projection, which would make him a top 20 OF in baseball, tied with Kyle Tucker and Ian Happ. Considering he should really be hitting in the bottom 3rd of the lineup that is a really, really good player to have. The real question in my mind is how this changes the outlook of the team over the next several years. He doesn't even hit arbitration until 2026. If he is a legitimate 3+ WAR CF that gives the org a lot more options going forward when it comes to trades and free agents. Pay the man. Seriously, though - he first came up in 2021. Does that mean the Sox only have control until 2026? He only has two option years left, including this year. If he is a FA after 2026 and they believe All World All Star Jarren Duran™ is the real deal, they should probably work out some kind of extension in the off-season and try to buy out his first 2-3 years of free agency. Otherwise, if he does this or even similar in 2024, his agent will likely advise him to ride it out to free agency. If, on the other hand, because of his relatively limited service time, he doesn't get to free agency until 2028 or 2029, he's going to get screwed out of a ton of cash. He is scheduled to hit arbitration in 2026, wouldn't hit free agency until after the 2028 season where he would be 32.
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Post by Guidas on May 18, 2023 13:22:22 GMT -5
Pay the man. Seriously, though - he first came up in 2021. Does that mean the Sox only have control until 2026? He only has two option years left, including this year. If he is a FA after 2026 and they believe All World All Star Jarren Duran™ is the real deal, they should probably work out some kind of extension in the off-season and try to buy out his first 2-3 years of free agency. Otherwise, if he does this or even similar in 2024, his agent will likely advise him to ride it out to free agency. If, on the other hand, because of his relatively limited service time, he doesn't get to free agency until 2028 or 2029, he's going to get screwed out of a ton of cash. He is scheduled to hit arbitration in 2026, wouldn't hit free agency until after the 2028 season where he would be 32. Ugh - so he is going to get screwed.
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Post by blizzards39 on May 18, 2023 13:32:48 GMT -5
He is scheduled to hit arbitration in 2026, wouldn't hit free agency until after the 2028 season where he would be 32. Ugh - so he is going to get screwed. He shoulda been better 2 years ago. C19 was a lost year. So many players went backwards.
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Post by jbuttah on May 18, 2023 13:47:35 GMT -5
Ugh - so he is going to get screwed. He shoulda been better 2 years ago. C19 was a lost year. So many players went backwards. I guess screwed is a relative term. He'll still end up making many millions of $$$.
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Post by brendan98 on May 18, 2023 14:21:43 GMT -5
The thing that excites me even more about Duran is that, since becoming a professional he has converted from infielder to outfielder and has totally revamped his swing mechanics, I believe that there is a ton more room for him to improve offensively and defensively.
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Post by Guidas on May 18, 2023 15:10:24 GMT -5
He shoulda been better 2 years ago. C19 was a lost year. So many players went backwards. I guess screwed is a relative term. He'll still end up making many millions of $$$. Yes. It's all relative to our industry/peer group/expertise. No one making MLB minimum is doing badly in a pure sense. In fact, 1 year at MLB minimum puts them in the top 1% of all wage earners in the U.S. If any MLB player is smart and can pull 4 years of MLB minimum for their service time or better, they and their family should be well set for life. But, in comparison to his peer group in light of his production, if Duran maintains a 3.0ish or better WAR, relatively, he'll be underpaid, even with his arb years, and too old to really maximize his excellence when he's a free agent. It's a GM's dream but it does shaft the player in a relative sense. Of course, by 2028, a QO will probably be $25M or more, so if he's within +/- 0.5 WAR of 3.0 WAR he should be able to snag at least 4 years at $110-130M or so at age 32 if his body is still working.
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Post by Guidas on May 18, 2023 15:13:26 GMT -5
The thing that excites me even more about Duran is that, since becoming a professional he has converted from infielder to outfielder and has totally revamped his swing mechanics, I believe that there is a ton more room for him to improve offensively and defensively. I agree and was thinking along these lines yesterday. The league will adjust, but right now he seems to be seeing the ball so well (better than the umpires in several cases) and getting to it no matter where it's pitched in the zone, that he should be able to adjust with them. And if his comfort level increases even more with that or after it, I think he'll become even more dangerous at the plate. Lots of ifs, and the game will humble a man, but right now he seems to be right on it.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on May 22, 2023 23:31:54 GMT -5
Last 15 games: .212/ .281/ .327
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gerry
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Post by gerry on May 23, 2023 3:19:31 GMT -5
Last 15 games: .212/ .281/ .327 Adjustments? Injury? Fatigue, mental or physical? A plain old slump? We do know that he helped keep the team afloat while injuries could have knocked the team totally off the rails. We also owe him a debt for reminding the Sox brass and fans how important (and fun) is speed to team success. Let’s hope whatever this is that it is short-lived.
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Post by incandenza on May 23, 2023 7:53:06 GMT -5
For the first 11 of those games he hit .270/.357/.432. Is it a 15-game slump or a 4-game slump?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 23, 2023 8:11:44 GMT -5
Not all that concerned by a mild cold stretch, he’s repeatedly shown the ability to make adjustments going all the way back to the minors. AB quality is still different than last year even when not at his best.
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Post by patford on May 23, 2023 8:54:32 GMT -5
Not all that concerned by a mild cold stretch, he’s repeatedly shown the ability to make adjustments going all the way back to the minors. AB quality is still different than last year even when not at his best. Yes still too early to conclude anything. Even the best players slump. The concern comes when a player does not come out of a slump. If he goes another two weeks and is still spiraling down then the concern grows.
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Post by dirtywaterinla on May 23, 2023 12:28:52 GMT -5
Last 15 games: .212/ .281/ .327 Adjustments? Injury? Fatigue, mental or physical? A plain old slump? We do know that he helped keep the team afloat while injuries could have knocked the team totally off the rails. We also owe him a debt for reminding the Sox brass and fans how important (and fun) is speed to team success. Let’s hope whatever this is that it is short-lived. As I pointed out in the gameday thread, I think Kiké needs to get some starts in CF to get Duran some rest especially against LHP. This also might help to get Kiké's bat going as his splits show he's clearly a much worse hitter when he's at SS this year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 23, 2023 16:14:45 GMT -5
For the first 11 of those games he hit .270/.357/.432. Is it a 15-game slump or a 4-game slump? 0 for his last 11. The 15 games prior he hit .289/.383/.423. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
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Post by Guidas on May 23, 2023 16:47:46 GMT -5
He nutted a couple balls Saturday and Sunday. Just right to perfectly positioned guys.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2023 10:08:27 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on May 24, 2023 10:15:49 GMT -5
Definitely would have been unimaginable to think he'd make these types of stride in the field after last season. You could make the case if he can sustain say 75-80 percent of that he's playable in CF and you live with his ups and downs as you said. I'm fairly confident his bat can play at CF for the next few seasons especially at the low $ cost. If this defense improvement isn't a mirage what a boost to the team's outlook the next few years that would be.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2023 10:56:12 GMT -5
Definitely would have been unimaginable to think he'd make these types of stride in the field after last season. You could make the case if he can sustain say 75-80 percent of that he's playable in CF and you live with his ups and downs as you said. I'm fairly confident his bat can play at CF for the next few seasons especially at the low $ cost. If this defense improvement isn't a mirage what a boost to the team's outlook the next few years that would be. To dirtywaterinla's point, getting him some off days vs lefties might help - and that certainly gets easier when Duvall comes back to rotate in with Duran, Yoshida and Verdugo. Duran vs lefties: 2023 - .269/.333/.346 (which isn't unplayable by any means), 2022 - .184 .238 .211.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on May 24, 2023 18:15:01 GMT -5
It's a 5-game skid, in a team streak of five straight games with bad karma. That could be luck, or opposing defenses.
That the skid = West Coast trip may not be a coincidence. Game 1 (at least) was partially played when he might ordinarily be in bed. You might acquire a swing error that persists even after the body clock has adjusted.
The first game of the Padres series he had a .300 xwOBA, but the team (including him) was .445. That certainly didn't look like anything at the time but in retrospect, it's the skid start. He then put up (with team in ()):
.230 (.309) .215 (.258) .051 (.146) .145 (.267)
Expected and actual batting lines for the trip, with xwOBA / wOBA at the end:
TEAM .222 / .281 / .384 = .292 .175 / .237 / .269 = .229
Duran .199 / .199 / .250 = .196 .053 / .053 / .053 = .047
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Post by wcsoxfan on May 28, 2023 17:32:58 GMT -5
With Durran striking out 31% of the time in the month of May, prior to his 4k (so far) performance today, I think we're going to see him back down in Worcester shortly.
Duvall should be ready in about a week (after his rehab) and a corresponding move will be needed. Tapia is the other choice, but keeping the depth for as long as possible is more of a Bloom move.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 20, 2023 0:46:02 GMT -5
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Post by lonborgski on Jun 20, 2023 4:49:33 GMT -5
Can’t trade Turner
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