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Hungry Like the Wolf: the Jarren Duran thread
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Post by Addam603 on May 27, 2019 11:36:21 GMT -5
I wish they did pitch counts in the minors but I'm 99.99% sure Duran's average pitches is very low. If you throw him a first pitch strike, he's swinging. About 4 nights ago he had 3 hits on 4 pitches. I've never seen a 8-9-10 pitch sequence by him but I've seen several by Fitzgerald who "works the count". Chances are if Duran walks, it was a 4 or 5 pitch walk because he swings at strikes. I’ve seen Duran in person a couple of times this year against the P-Nats and he is definitely an aggressive swinger. He doesn’t take many pitches in the strike zone. Lots of first pitch swings. I saw him get a first pitch single two or three times across that series.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on May 27, 2019 13:33:30 GMT -5
I have no problem having Duran work on important things like stealing bases, defense, and other things to get him ready to the majors. The more he gets on base the more game practice he gets at stealing bases. He was the one prospect after last year I was the most excited about. I did not think he'd hit .400 though.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 27, 2019 22:32:23 GMT -5
Duran’s stellar 2019 start has some significant developments. Duran has nearly doubled his walk rate: 5.3% in 2018 to 9.7% BB in 2019, and his 19 BB in 43 G already surpass his total of 16 BB in 67 G. Duran is also seeing more pitches per plate appearance this season: Duran saw 3.26 PPA in 2018 compared to 3.62 PPA in 2019. As a comparison, Duran’s 3.62 PPA is the same mark as Mets leadoff hitter Jeff McNeil. Duran has also increased his SB success rate from 71% in 2018 to 76% in 2019. . . . This puts him at 80 grade speed: sub 4.0 seconds for a left handed hitter would signify the 80 grade. His 3.85 home-to-first time would put him 13th overall in MLB, among speedsters such as Starling Marte and Brett Gardner. Interestingly, Gardner is one of the main MLB comps thrown on Duran. Comps aside, Duran has the ability and growing technique to eclipse the 30 SB mark like these SB leaderboard mainstays. . . . These three clips show the diverse ways that Duran can impact the game in the batter’s box. His swing is short and to the ball. His setup is relaxed and the athletic ability allows him to turn on it and drive it the other way. Duran has demonstrated the ability to use the whole field, and his hit distribution has stayed relatively balanced (39% pull, 24% center, 36% opposite). www.prospects1500.com/al-east/red-sox/if-you-dont-know-jarren-duran-get-to-know-him-now/ADD: I always thought 3.9 for a lefty and 4.0 for a righty constituted 80 grade. Either way 3.85 is safely into either category. His SB% now stands at 78.2%
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Post by jimed14 on May 28, 2019 7:10:02 GMT -5
They're actually saying that 35 year old Brett Gardner still has 80 grade speed? No.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 28, 2019 10:04:02 GMT -5
They're actually saying that 35 year old Brett Gardner still has 80 grade speed? No. I believe that was referencing historic times, they conversation was about stolen base leader boards.
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Post by jimed14 on May 28, 2019 11:01:42 GMT -5
They're actually saying that 35 year old Brett Gardner still has 80 grade speed? No. I believe that was referencing historic times, they conversation was about stolen base leader boards. Ah ok.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 28, 2019 13:11:29 GMT -5
Yeah, sub-3.9 for a LHB is 80 grade.
In person, I saw 3.96, hence why I consistently say 70.
I'll see Duran in July one way or another (both Salem and Portland are around). Will bring the stopwatch.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 28, 2019 17:15:03 GMT -5
Yeah, sub-3.9 for a LHB is 80 grade. In person, I saw 3.96, hence why I consistently say 70. I'll see Duran in July one way or another (both Salem and Portland are around). Will bring the stopwatch. For reference, the speed grade is always given on the best time seem, not average.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 28, 2019 18:05:50 GMT -5
Getting wrapped up in the Duran hype makes me think about the run the Sox have had at CF, it has been a good run. From Damon by trade and the homegrown Jacoby Ellsbury and JBJ we have been fortunate. Can Duran be the next in a long line or can he be even better? How high is the ceiling?
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Post by telson13 on May 28, 2019 18:38:28 GMT -5
Duran’s stellar 2019 start has some significant developments. Duran has nearly doubled his walk rate: 5.3% in 2018 to 9.7% BB in 2019, and his 19 BB in 43 G already surpass his total of 16 BB in 67 G. Duran is also seeing more pitches per plate appearance this season: Duran saw 3.26 PPA in 2018 compared to 3.62 PPA in 2019. As a comparison, Duran’s 3.62 PPA is the same mark as Mets leadoff hitter Jeff McNeil. Duran has also increased his SB success rate from 71% in 2018 to 76% in 2019. . . . This puts him at 80 grade speed: sub 4.0 seconds for a left handed hitter would signify the 80 grade. His 3.85 home-to-first time would put him 13th overall in MLB, among speedsters such as Starling Marte and Brett Gardner. Interestingly, Gardner is one of the main MLB comps thrown on Duran. Comps aside, Duran has the ability and growing technique to eclipse the 30 SB mark like these SB leaderboard mainstays. . . . These three clips show the diverse ways that Duran can impact the game in the batter’s box. His swing is short and to the ball. His setup is relaxed and the athletic ability allows him to turn on it and drive it the other way. Duran has demonstrated the ability to use the whole field, and his hit distribution has stayed relatively balanced (39% pull, 24% center, 36% opposite). www.prospects1500.com/al-east/red-sox/if-you-dont-know-jarren-duran-get-to-know-him-now/ADD: I always thought 3.9 for a lefty and 4.0 for a righty constituted 80 grade. Either way 3.85 is safely into either category. His SB% now stands at 78.2% Seeing more pitches (10% or so) and getting more walks probably also goes to explain his marginally increased K rate. I’ll take going from 16% to 19-20% K rate for a slightly greater (4+%) increase in walk rate.
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Post by telson13 on May 28, 2019 19:15:22 GMT -5
Getting wrapped up in the Duran hype makes me think about the run the Sox have had at CF, it has been a good run. From Damon by trade and the homegrown Jacoby Ellsbury and JBJ we have been fortunate. Can Duran be the next in a long line or can he be even better? How high is the ceiling? I thought last year that he had a very good chance (reasonable floor) of at least being a useful 4th OF/PR, with a likely outcome of low-end 2nd-division starter and reasonable ceiling of a first-division CF (say, 80th-90th %ile outcome) at about .280/.340/.420. I don’t think his floor has changed all that much, but I think his outcome spread is broader. I’d say he’s a little less likely to be just a 4th OF, and his likely outcome is closer to being an avg to solid-avg (50-55 role) starting CF, with his reasonable ceiling (90th %ile) being a multi-time AS first-division starter (role 60, *possibly* 65 for a few years). I’m buying that, because he checks off essentially every single box for high-BABIP (speed, spray LD hitter with excellent oppo ability, no major platoon split, hard contact, GB>FB; also LH oppo hitter in Fenway), he’s probably a true-talent high BABIP guy with a very good chance of sitting in the .330-.360 range for a long time, and certainly with a reasonable chance at multiple .380-.400+ seasons. If he can keep upping his walk rate a bit, being more *selectively* aggressive on pitches he can drive, by increasing his Z-Sw to O-Sw ratio, he could end up in the 10-12% BB rate and 18-20% K rate zone. With the juicier MLB ball, provided he continues developing as a hitter and adding power as most do mid-late-20s, I could see him maintaining or even improving on the .140 or so IsoP, maybe as high as .170-.180 (high end; outside shot at .200 but unlikely higher unless he changes his swing for loft). Originally I’d guessed 55 bat at peak but I’d say closer to 65-70 now (again, I’d put that at about 1-in-10 chance). So that would be about .290-.300/.370-.390/.430-.480, with 30-50 SB, and in Fenway he might get upwards of 10 triples, and 40 doubles (where I’d guess the large part of his IsoP would come from). Given his massive BABIP edge and slight IsoP edge at the same stage in their development, I think Ellsbury or Gardner is a good comp but I’d give Duran a ceiling of being a slightly to even moderately better player. It’s easy to underrate him because of his draft position with an underwhelming collegiate line, but I think his performance so far (which includes some swing changes), particularly the BABIP consistency and all-fields approach, suggests he’s still developing quite a bit as a hitter. I think the key will be his bat-to-ball skill. If the K rate stays on the lower side (15-18%) and some HR power shows up, the high BABIPs could lead to some outstanding years. If the K rate sneaks into the 18-22% range and he doesn’t show 50 game power, he’ll be somewhat limited BA-wise, although it should still be in the .280-.290 range with a .330-.340 BABIP. If the K rate gets high (22-25%), he’s probably more of a .260-.275 hitter, which will still have value if he’s putting up an 8-10% walk rate (solid-avg.). Personally, I’m very bullish and I think he has some 5-WAR seasons as long as the speed is around.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 29, 2019 23:54:59 GMT -5
Jarren Duran has 50% more 3+ hits games (12) than 0 hit games (8). In one of his 0 hit games, he had 3 walks.
The 5 CS were:
at 2nd base picked off at 2nd base, caught stealing third picked off at 1st base, caught stealing second home on a delayed double steal Unknown. (baseball reference game logs are missing 1)
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,983
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Post by jimoh on May 30, 2019 8:41:02 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 30, 2019 9:52:53 GMT -5
Interesting read in retrospect.
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Post by James Dunne on Jun 3, 2019 14:17:05 GMT -5
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,336
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Post by radiohix on Jun 3, 2019 14:27:50 GMT -5
Now we'll have a much better idea of we got here.
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Post by Costigan on Jun 3, 2019 14:42:08 GMT -5
Looks like I'll be doing a little brewery tour / Portland Sea Dogs trip in my very near future.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2019 14:44:39 GMT -5
Pawtucket is coming to Durham to play the Bulls once this season, July 23, 24, 25. I expect Duran to be there.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 3, 2019 14:44:47 GMT -5
Are they sure? I mean it's not like he's hitting .400 anymore. He might need some more A ball seasoning.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 3, 2019 14:45:51 GMT -5
I'll be in Maine toward the end of July. Was eying 7/24 against my local Hartford Yardgoats.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 3, 2019 14:48:42 GMT -5
So once you get to AA, you can be called up at any moment. When is he replacing JBJ? (I'll beat dmaineah to it)
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Post by Addam603 on Jun 3, 2019 14:50:49 GMT -5
I’d see Duran either way in July/August, but now I get to see him with the Sea Dogs in Richmond.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 3, 2019 15:03:35 GMT -5
So once you get to AA, you can be called up at any moment. When is he replacing JBJ? (I'll beat dmaineah to it) I'm sure dmaineah has Duran penciled into tomorrow's lineup in CF against the Royals.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 3, 2019 15:31:18 GMT -5
So once you get to AA, you can be called up at any moment. When is he replacing JBJ? (I'll beat dmaineah to it) I'm sure dmaineah has Duran penciled into tomorrow's lineup in CF against the Royals. No, he's the closer.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 3, 2019 16:03:01 GMT -5
I'm sure dmaineah has Duran penciled into tomorrow's lineup in CF against the Royals. No, he's the closer. No, Eovaldi is coming back soon
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