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Post by jmei on Dec 9, 2014 8:37:35 GMT -5
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 9, 2014 9:18:22 GMT -5
Do you have a better link? The one you cited is analysis of Max Pentecost. I inserted Henry Owens into the various search fields on that site but couldn't get the report.
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Post by jmei on Dec 9, 2014 9:22:35 GMT -5
It's there, but subscriber-only. I'll post a snippet later on.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 9, 2014 9:29:04 GMT -5
Great read. Gives the mechanics a "C". Likes his momentum from the windup, but it isn't as good from the stretch, which is the opposite of most. Has some things in there that vary from pitch to pitch. Basically, he's average.
I think we can probably post the grades:
Report Card
Balance 50 Momentum 60 Torque 50 Posture 45 Repetition 50 Overall C
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 9, 2014 13:56:28 GMT -5
Thanks for the summary. Those are current grades, rather than projection, right? If so then I think it's worth noting that Owens is very tall, and his balance and repetition were huge projects as recently as two years ago. Our early reports showed him with fantasitc raw tools but a real lack of finish to his delivery. To get to where he's average in that stuff isn't something to sneeze at.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 9, 2015 17:09:09 GMT -5
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Post by redsox1534 on Jan 9, 2015 17:50:58 GMT -5
Mechanics are basically Owens only flaw that could hold his greatness back. Hitter just dont see the ball well and that trait isnt common, its a trait that can make a pitcher go from good to great. I am not overly worried about his mechanics, think he will get better little by little each year as he has. Still like him and Johnson a little more then E Rod. E Rod has better fastball wo doubt but.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 9, 2015 23:36:14 GMT -5
That is really aggressive. There's not an obvious AL candidate like Bryant in the National League, but Owens needs a couple of injuries and to outpitch the depth in Triple-A. Where he isn't on the 40-man it's hard to see him making his debut before June 1, and that's only if there's an opportunity AND he's cruising through the International League. EDIT: In the last five seasons, I can only find two pitching prospects who have made starts for the Red Sox in seasons where they didn't begin the year on the 40-man roster: Brandon Workman and Kyle Weiland. Both debuted in July. I do think Owens will debut this year, but I'd be surprised if it's early enough to mount a serious ROY campaign.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 9, 2015 23:40:12 GMT -5
When I think about it - the player Owens makes me think of the most is Dontrelle Willis and he was great early. But agree with James, would be tough just to get the opportunity.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Jan 9, 2015 23:43:59 GMT -5
Really need to improve his fastball command. It may take a season or so.
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Post by ramireja on Jan 10, 2015 0:18:12 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if he finishes ahead of Castillo in the voting.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 10, 2015 10:12:55 GMT -5
When I think about it - the player Owens makes me think of the most is Dontrelle Willis and he was great early. But agree with James, would be tough just to get the opportunity. You know when I recall Willis, I think that is a really good comparison. I do think Owens has a bit better control/command but not as much fastball as the early Willis.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 10, 2015 11:02:24 GMT -5
That is really aggressive. There's not an obvious AL candidate like Bryant in the National League, but Owens needs a couple of injuries and to outpitch the depth in Triple-A. Where he isn't on the 40-man it's hard to see him making his debut before June 1, and that's only if there's an opportunity AND he's cruising through the International League.
All it'll take is for Clay to pull his annual disappearing act.
There are a lot more steps than that. They aren't going to put Owens on the 40-man when they have Wright, Barnes, Ranaudo, Workman and Escobar on it already.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 10, 2015 11:19:34 GMT -5
All it'll take is for Clay to pull his annual disappearing act.
There are a lot more steps than that. They aren't going to put Owens on the 40-man when they have Wright, Barnes, Ranaudo, Workman and Escobar on it already. A word about this. If Owens is one of the team's five best major league starters at some point this year, he's on the team regardless of if he's on the 40 man roster at the time. They are not going to go with a clearly inferior pitcher because he's on the 40 man. The goal is to win at the major league level not to have the best 40 man roster.
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Post by jmei on Jan 10, 2015 11:32:18 GMT -5
If it's a longer-term injury and Owens looks clearly better than their other SP options, I agree that you call up Owens regardless of 40-man status. But if some of those factors slip-- if it's only a two week absence, or if someone like Barnes looks like a comparable option-- I think they'd prefer to go with the guy already on the 40-man, especially in the first half of the season.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 10, 2015 11:39:50 GMT -5
There are a lot more steps than that. They aren't going to put Owens on the 40-man when they have Wright, Barnes, Ranaudo, Workman and Escobar on it already. A word about this. If Owens is one of the team's five best major league starters at some point this year, he's on the team regardless of if he's on the 40 man roster at the time. They are not going to go with a clearly inferior pitcher because he's on the 40 man. The goal is to win at the major league level not to have the best 40 man roster. So like I said, there are a lot more things that have to happen than just Buchholz being no good. Owens also has to be a far superior option over each of several other pitchers. Plus if it's just a matter of Buchholz being no good, they have to figure out what they're going to do with him and when. That takes awhile to play out.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 10, 2015 12:25:02 GMT -5
A word about this. If Owens is one of the team's five best major league starters at some point this year, he's on the team regardless of if he's on the 40 man roster at the time. They are not going to go with a clearly inferior pitcher because he's on the 40 man. The goal is to win at the major league level not to have the best 40 man roster. So like I said, there are a lot more things that have to happen than just Buchholz being no good. Owens also has to be a far superior option over each of several other pitchers. Plus if it's just a matter of Buchholz being no good, they have to figure out what they're going to do with him and when. That takes awhile to play out. Not trying to pick on you per say but there's this meme going around that it somehow it matters that he's not on the 40 man roster. You can be sure that at some point a spot will open up due to either injury or underperformance. When that happens, I find it very unlikely that Workman or Ranaudo are going to be superior options to Owens. I think he's up by July.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 10, 2015 12:42:57 GMT -5
I think July is a pretty good estimate. Unless he's just lights out from there on, that's too late for him to have a realistic ROY shot. Another confounding factor is that I'm pretty bullish on Barnes for this season. He seemed to make some real adjustments in the second half last year with Pawtucket and I see him being ready to step in if there's an opportunity.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jan 10, 2015 13:41:33 GMT -5
Owens wasn't invited to the Rookie Development Program. That seems odd, considering many think he will be in the starting rotation sometime during this coming season.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 10, 2015 13:46:46 GMT -5
Owens wasn't invited to the Rookie Development Program. That seems odd, considering many think he will be in the starting rotation sometime during this coming season. He went last year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 10, 2015 16:17:19 GMT -5
So like I said, there are a lot more things that have to happen than just Buchholz being no good. Owens also has to be a far superior option over each of several other pitchers. Plus if it's just a matter of Buchholz being no good, they have to figure out what they're going to do with him and when. That takes awhile to play out. Not trying to pick on you per say but there's this meme going around that it somehow it matters that he's not on the 40 man roster. You can be sure that at some point a spot will open up due to either injury or underperformance. When that happens, I find it very unlikely that Workman or Ranaudo are going to be superior options to Owens. I think he's up by July. It matters in the sense, as mentioned above, that if it's a short-term fill in early in the year, he'd have to be by far the top option. The longer-term and later in the year you're talking, then yeah, I agree completely. The above points were made in response to someone predicting he'll win ROY, the point being he's unlikely to be in the Majors for long enough. And fwiw, the 40-man point only matters because they have a bunch of other options on there already, not in a vacuum.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 11, 2015 10:26:32 GMT -5
Not trying to pick on you per say but there's this meme going around that it somehow it matters that he's not on the 40 man roster. You can be sure that at some point a spot will open up due to either injury or underperformance. When that happens, I find it very unlikely that Workman or Ranaudo are going to be superior options to Owens. I think he's up by July. It matters in the sense, as mentioned above, that if it's a short-term fill in early in the year, he'd have to be by far the top option. The longer-term and later in the year you're talking, then yeah, I agree completely. The above points were made in response to someone predicting he'll win ROY, the point being he's unlikely to be in the Majors for long enough. And fwiw, the 40-man point only matters because they have a bunch of other options on there already, not in a vacuum. I don't know if he'll win the ROY but there's a very good chance he pitches long enough in the majors to do so. If it's a one start fill in, then sure they may go with whomever is rested that day. But we all know that eventually Buccholz will decide that his season is over and he doesn't feel like pitching anymore. When that happens it won't be Anthony Ranaudo that is called up.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 11, 2015 13:15:56 GMT -5
In the last 20 years, there have been 8 starting pitchers who won the Rookie of the Year award.
2014 NL: Jacob deGrom - 22 GS, 140.1 IP 2013 NL: Jose Fernandez - 28 GS, 172.2 IP 2011 AL: Jeremy Hellickson - 29 GS, 189 IP 2006 AL: Justin Verlander - 30 GS, 186 IP 2003 NL: Dontrelle Willis - 27 GS, 160.2 IP 2002 NL: Jason Jennings - 32 GS, 185.1 IP 1998 NL: Kerry Wood - 26 GS, 166.2 IP 1995 NL: Hideo Nomo - 28 GS, 191.1 IP
Last season, only three MLB pitchers had over 100 innings in the second half: Kluber, Price, and Kershaw. deGrom won the ROY with 140 innings in a year where he pitched great and no other rookies had standout years. Basically Owens would need to be up by mid-June, he'd need to be truly outstanding (sub 2.50 ERA range), and it needs to be a season where no full-season rookies are having standout years.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 12, 2015 8:06:01 GMT -5
In the last 20 years, there have been 8 starting pitchers who won the Rookie of the Year award. 2014 NL: Jacob deGrom - 22 GS, 140.1 IP 2013 NL: Jose Fernandez - 28 GS, 172.2 IP 2011 AL: Jeremy Hellickson - 29 GS, 189 IP 2006 AL: Justin Verlander - 30 GS, 186 IP 2003 NL: Dontrelle Willis - 27 GS, 160.2 IP 2002 NL: Jason Jennings - 32 GS, 185.1 IP 1998 NL: Kerry Wood - 26 GS, 166.2 IP 1995 NL: Hideo Nomo - 28 GS, 191.1 IP Last season, only three MLB pitchers had over 100 innings in the second half: Kluber, Price, and Kershaw. deGrom won the ROY with 140 innings in a year where he pitched great and no other rookies had standout years. Basically Owens would need to be up by mid-June, he'd need to be truly outstanding (sub 2.50 ERA range), and it needs to be a season where no full-season rookies are having standout years. [ The ROY voting is starting to change. Voters may consider a candidates future value when voting for the award.
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Post by dirtywater on Jan 12, 2015 10:07:46 GMT -5
In the last 20 years, there have been 8 starting pitchers who won the Rookie of the Year award. 2014 NL: Jacob deGrom - 22 GS, 140.1 IP 2013 NL: Jose Fernandez - 28 GS, 172.2 IP 2011 AL: Jeremy Hellickson - 29 GS, 189 IP 2006 AL: Justin Verlander - 30 GS, 186 IP 2003 NL: Dontrelle Willis - 27 GS, 160.2 IP 2002 NL: Jason Jennings - 32 GS, 185.1 IP 1998 NL: Kerry Wood - 26 GS, 166.2 IP 1995 NL: Hideo Nomo - 28 GS, 191.1 IP Last season, only three MLB pitchers had over 100 innings in the second half: Kluber, Price, and Kershaw. deGrom won the ROY with 140 innings in a year where he pitched great and no other rookies had standout years. Basically Owens would need to be up by mid-June, he'd need to be truly outstanding (sub 2.50 ERA range), and it needs to be a season where no full-season rookies are having standout years. [ The ROY voting is starting to change. Voters may consider a candidates future value when voting for the award. Wait... what? why? Tell me how that is fair or makes any sense. ROY should be abotu which rookie had the best year. Are you saying a guy that is a blue chip prospect should win ROY over a C+/B- DeGrom type if he has comparable yet definitively lesser numbers?
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