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Post by brianthetaoist on Aug 14, 2013 12:11:38 GMT -5
I think Owens should concentrate on his regular fastball before he gets into a cutter. It seems to me that he has some mechanical issues with his fastball if his velocity ranges from start to start as Ian's report implies. If he can tighten up his mechanics to keep his fastball consistenly in the 90-92 range (hitting 93-94) every start, then he's got a good chance without adding any pitches. And, if he adds a mph or two on top of that with some added strength, then that takes him up to another level.
That said, one thing I look at in pitchers is how quickly they improve and move through the system. To me, a guy who moves fast and adapts quickly is a guy with the athleticism as a pitcher to make adjustments and maximize results in the major leagues. Hank seems to have that ability, judging by how quickly he turned his curve into a quality pitch. So he may be able to add a cutter or whatever to his arsenal later ...
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Post by Deleted on Aug 14, 2013 13:33:23 GMT -5
You're questioning semantics here . There are very few true #1's in all of baseball and only a handful of #2's .your trying to mash a round peg into a square hole by getting a hard and fast factual answer on a theoretical projection. The difference between a #2 and a #3 will change from year to year and from player to player and even from team to team. The biggest issue with Owens is command, if he masters command he'll be a better than average major league starter. He doesn't have the velocity or command right now to have a ceiling of a top 20 pitcher in the sport. BUT just because he's not elite doesn't mean he can't still be really really good. This is a good post even though I don't quite agree. I believe that Owens will never quite master command being that he's 6'6" and though he has a good delivery, it's hard to keep all your limbs in order when you are that size. If I remember correctly the case around drafting Owens originally centered around projection. It was thought that given his long lanky frame he might greatly increase his velocity as he matured. That hasn't quite panned out yet, but I wonder if there is still a chance for him to add some heft to his fastball. If he's throwing in the high 80s, it's going to be a tough road for him unless he greatly improves his command.
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Post by curll on Aug 16, 2013 22:45:27 GMT -5
Inappropriate post deleted.
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Post by jpostman11 on Aug 17, 2013 10:42:58 GMT -5
Long time reader first time poster. A little history. Played ball my whole life, played for a JC (actually got to play against Bryce Harper). I have been following the site for a couple years, it's been a good source of information and entertainment for me.
So anyways, Owens really throws me off, reading his player page the stuff seems GOOD but nothin insanely great, also reading the last scouting scratch had him sitting 89-91. Going off that alone him being ranked 4th on the site isn't merited. Until you look at the stats. 119 IP and 153 K. Opponents are hitting sub .200 against him. With 91?! I topped out at 91 and got knocked around by 19-20 year old kids. To me that shows there is something special about this guy. His deception has to be on an elite level. He is on pace to strike out more batters in a year than any Red Sox minor league player since 2007. Atleast according to the stats page. And he has an outside chance at getting to 200 K. (Not sure how many starts he had left)
My question is what the hell is going on with this guy to be so dominant. What pitch is he getting his strike outs on? Is his fastball exploding? Maybe have a little cut on it? Over the years of following prospects I have learned to question everything before I make my very uneducated guess on how good I think the player could be. So for those who have a little more info about it help us uninformed folk out, because I know I can't be the only person that's wondering what is going on.
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Post by rider on Aug 17, 2013 11:12:38 GMT -5
He has really advanced secondary pitches in his change up and curve ball that work well off his fastball. He throws them all with the same arm speed which allows him to throw off the timing of hitters because of the great separation in speeds between the pitches.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Aug 17, 2013 11:19:54 GMT -5
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Post by charliezink16 on Aug 17, 2013 11:26:30 GMT -5
My question is what the hell is going on with this guy to be so dominant. What pitch is he getting his strike outs on? Is his fastball exploding? Maybe have a little cut on it? If I remember this correctly, I think I read that Owens does such a good job hiding the ball that hitters only pick it up a split second after they generally would. While the ball comes in at 91, it looks like a 95+MPH heater to the hitters. Just imagine what this kid can be if he adds more velocity and command.
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Post by jmei on Aug 17, 2013 12:00:09 GMT -5
It's the same way that Koji Uehara has one of the highest swinging strike rates in the league despite only throwing 89-91. Excellent deception and the threat of the excellent offspeed stuff.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 17, 2013 13:09:23 GMT -5
According to Speier he averaged 91 in this most recent start. That would put him above average for a LHP in MLB. The hardest throwing lefty this year is Derek Holland at around 93 MPH.
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Post by jchang on Aug 17, 2013 17:26:18 GMT -5
I am glad that Henry is content to pitch at a velocity that he can sustain through the game with deception. The general pattern of the hard throwers seems to be that they get injured and sit out 1 year to recover from surgery. Also, big leaguers can hit straight fast balls. I will be patient is assuming that Owens should gain a small uptick by the time he is 23-25. Even without the extra velocity, and he becomes a 4/5 starter, then that is still draft success. I think his top pitching prospect status is that he is a hair over the other top 5. If our 5 pitching prospects in AA/AAA top out at 3-5 starters, two of them could be packaged for a 2 starter?
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Post by sarasoxer on Aug 17, 2013 17:48:54 GMT -5
I am glad that Henry is content to pitch at a velocity that he can sustain through the game with deception. The general pattern of the hard throwers seems to be that they get injured and sit out 1 year to recover from surgery. Also, big leaguers can hit straight fast balls. I will be patient is assuming that Owens should gain a small uptick by the time he is 23-25. Even without the extra velocity, and he becomes a 4/5 starter, then that is still draft success. I think his top pitching prospect status is that he is a hair over the other top 5. If our 5 pitching prospects in AA/AAA top out at 3-5 starters, two of them could be packaged for a 2 starter? It appears, from reports, that Owens' deception is the key to his success. I was excited by Doubront last year when he regularly hit 95 and sometimes 96 with his fastball. That has been missing, for whatever reason, this season and, altho he has pitched fairly well despite lower velocity and below par command, he does not give me much confidence at 91 with regularly high pitch counts....sort of like Lester lite. It was odd watching the Sox game last night when Pettitte was described by Eck as "not being what he once was" throwing 91 and a few 92s at age 41 while Doubront was at the same velocity....but generally got kudos for his pitching to date. Hmmm. If Owens gains 2-3 mph, he could be a Frank Tanana type....good velo and great off-speed stuff.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 18, 2013 20:34:42 GMT -5
I am glad that Henry is content to pitch at a velocity that he can sustain through the game with deception. The general pattern of the hard throwers seems to be that they get injured and sit out 1 year to recover from surgery. Also, big leaguers can hit straight fast balls. I will be patient is assuming that Owens should gain a small uptick by the time he is 23-25. Even without the extra velocity, and he becomes a 4/5 starter, then that is still draft success. I think his top pitching prospect status is that he is a hair over the other top 5. If our 5 pitching prospects in AA/AAA top out at 3-5 starters, two of them could be packaged for a 2 starter? It appears, from reports, that Owens' deception is the key to his success. I was excited by Doubront last year when he regularly hit 95 and sometimes 96 with his fastball. That has been missing, for whatever reason, this season and, altho he has pitched fairly well despite lower velocity and below par command, he does not give me much confidence at 91 with regularly high pitch counts....sort of like Lester lite. It was odd watching the Sox game last night when Pettitte was described by Eck as "not being what he once was" throwing 91 and a few 92s at age 41 while Doubront was at the same velocity....but generally got kudos for his pitching to date. Hmmm. If Owens gains 2-3 mph, he could be a Frank Tanana type....good velo and great off-speed stuff. And hopefully won't get overused like Tanana was and become a junk-ball pitcher. But in this generation, pitchers rarely get overused. I think Owens has a very high ceiling and with the way he is dominating Double-A right now, I think he could be in Boston by the end of next year. I read an article that compared him with David Price. Impossible to complain with that if he reaches potential like that.
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Post by ikonos on Aug 18, 2013 23:04:21 GMT -5
And hopefully won't get overused like Tanana was and become a junk-ball pitcher. But in this generation, pitchers rarely get overused. I think Owens has a very high ceiling and with the way he is dominating Double-A right now, I think he could be in Boston by the end of next year. I read an article that compared him with David Price. Impossible to complain with that if he reaches potential like that. Their fastballs are miles apart at this point but if he can be as good as Price it would be awsome. Can you link the article you are talking about?
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Post by psusox14 on Aug 19, 2013 20:32:20 GMT -5
I read an article that compared him with David Price. And by that, the writer means henry Owens is left handed. And he is a pitcher.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2013 21:34:56 GMT -5
And hopefully won't get overused like Tanana was and become a junk-ball pitcher. But in this generation, pitchers rarely get overused. I think Owens has a very high ceiling and with the way he is dominating Double-A right now, I think he could be in Boston by the end of next year. I read an article that compared him with David Price. Impossible to complain with that if he reaches potential like that. Their fastballs are miles apart at this point but if he can be as good as Price it would be awsome. Can you link the article you are talking about? Its from bleacher report, which really doesn't mean much. A lot of bleacher report articles are way off. Here is the link: bleacherreport.com/articles/1473548-5-prospects-who-could-be-the-next-david-price/page/2They are for sure overrating Owens, but if he comes close to Price at all, that is hard to complain with.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 19, 2013 21:38:19 GMT -5
So basically, here's five guys who throw lefty, give us some pageviews. No thanks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 19, 2013 21:42:14 GMT -5
So basically, here's five guys who throw lefty, give us some pageviews. No thanks. Again, 98% of bleacher report is BS. I completely agree
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 19, 2013 22:19:22 GMT -5
So basically, here's five guys who throw lefty, give us some pageviews. No thanks. Again, 98% of bleacher report is BS. I completely agree Right. So why are you citing a BR article like it's not BS? If you know the comparison with Price is silly, why would you say you read an article comparing him to Price?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 20, 2013 10:41:37 GMT -5
It's the same way that Koji Uehara has one of the highest swinging strike rates in the league despite only throwing 89-91. Excellent deception and the threat of the excellent offspeed stuff. A 95-mph FB gets to home plate 0.02 seconds faster than a 90-mph one. So when we talk about deception, we're talking about a very subtle difference that has significant impact. Of course, Uehara has excellent fastball control while Owens needs work on his. It's been shown that FB velocity has relatively little effect in hitter's cold zones, which is why non-hard throwers with great command can succeed by working the corners. What FB velocity is good for is creating a margin of error; as you move into hitter's hot zones / the heart of the plate, it becomes more and more important. Balls right down the middle get hit hard a lot less often than you'd think, and the best way to get lucky and get such a pitch fouled back is to have thrown it 96 instead of 89. Last year Owens was 4th among 158 low-A pitchers (minimum 80 IP) in K%, but he was hit very hard otherwise: he had the 10th worst BABIP and the 19th worst HR/ Contact. This year he was 5th among 144 high-A pitchers (minimum 70 IP) in K%, but he had the 6th best BABIP and was a bit above average in HRC (67th). There's probably some luck and defense involved in the huge BABIP swing, but there's also no question that he's been hit much less hard. That's probably due to improved fastball command, which is a good sign.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 20, 2013 10:50:39 GMT -5
It's the same way that Koji Uehara has one of the highest swinging strike rates in the league despite only throwing 89-91. Excellent deception and the threat of the excellent offspeed stuff. A 95-mph FB gets to home plate 0.02 seconds faster than a 90-mph one. So when we talk about deception, we're talking about a very subtle difference that has significant impact. Of course, Uehara has excellent fastball control while Owens needs work on his. It's been shown that FB velocity has relatively little effect in hitter's cold zones, which is why non-hard throwers with great command can succeed by working the corners. What FB velocity is good for is creating a margin of error; as you move into hitter's hot zones / the heart of the plate, it becomes more and more important. Balls right down the middle get hit hard a lot less often than you'd think, and the best way to get lucky and get such a pitch fouled back is to have thrown it 96 instead of 89. Last year Owens was 4th among 158 low-A pitchers (minimum 80 IP) in K%, but he was hit very hard otherwise: he had the 10th worst BABIP and the 19th worst HR/ Contact. This year he was 5th among 144 high-A pitchers (minimum 70 IP) in K%, but he had the 6th best BABIP and was a bit above average in HRC (67th). There's probably some luck and defense involved in the huge BABIP swing, but there's also no question that he's been hit much less hard. That's probably due to improved fastball command, which is a good sign. I'm giving Deven Marrero credit for that drop in BABIP
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 20, 2013 10:55:57 GMT -5
Marrero probably deserves some of the credit, yes. Two of the guys with worse BABIPs last year were Luis Diaz and Jason Garcia, and both of them have had huge bounceback years as well, despite not having profiles or other stat lines at all like Owens.
EDIT: I swear this post made sense in my head.
What I meant was, Marrero deserves some of the credit for Owens. BUT a change in luck is playing a bigger role, hence the Diaz and Garcia improvements (who aren't in front of Marrero). I left the connecting part of my thought out.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 20, 2013 10:58:34 GMT -5
It's the same way that Koji Uehara has one of the highest swinging strike rates in the league despite only throwing 89-91. Excellent deception and the threat of the excellent offspeed stuff. A 95-mph FB gets to home plate 0.02 seconds faster than a 90-mph one. So when we talk about deception, we're talking about a very subtle difference that has significant impact. This is true and is a great point, but the .02 number is an average. If a pitcher is taller and has a release point closer to home plate then a 90 MPH fastball will actually reach home plate faster. The Red Sox use a system (I believe it is called Trackman) that was developed originally for the military to track missiles. It was then incorporated into golf to analyze the spin of the ball as a means to help understand flaws in a swing. About a third of the teams in MLB now use it to gain a greater understanding of release point and ball spin (both out of the pitchers hand and off the bat). I talked with one of the people that worked to develop this system for use in baseball and a pitcher's height can really make a fastball "play up". EDIT: Unless things have changed in the last couple years, the Red Sox have the system installed in Portland, Pawtucket, and Boston, but not in the lower levels.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 20, 2013 11:01:41 GMT -5
A 95-mph FB gets to home plate 0.02 seconds faster than a 90-mph one. So when we talk about deception, we're talking about a very subtle difference that has significant impact. This is true and is a great point, but the .02 number is an average. If a pitcher is taller and has a release point closer to home plate then a 90 MPH fastball will actually reach home plate faster. The Red Sox use a system (I believe it is called Trackman) that was developed originally for the military to track missiles. It was then incorporated into golf to analyze the spin of the ball as a means to help understand flaws in a swing. About a third of the teams in MLB now use it to gain a greater understanding of release point and ball spin (both out of the pitchers hand and off the bat). I talked with one of the people that worked to develop this system for use in baseball and a pitcher's height can really make a fastball "play up". EDIT: Unless things have changed in the last couple years, the Red Sox have the system installed in Portland, Pawtucket, and Boston, but not in the lower levels. Wonder how much that has to do with their recent fascination with tall pitchers.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 20, 2013 11:04:09 GMT -5
It's the same way that Koji Uehara has one of the highest swinging strike rates in the league despite only throwing 89-91. Excellent deception and the threat of the excellent offspeed stuff. A 95-mph FB gets to home plate 0.02 seconds faster than a 90-mph one. So when we talk about deception, we're talking about a very subtle difference that has significant impact.Of course, Uehara has excellent fastball control while Owens needs work on his. It's been shown that FB velocity has relatively little effect in hitter's cold zones, which is why non-hard throwers with great command can succeed by working the corners. What FB velocity is good for is creating a margin of error; as you move into hitter's hot zones / the heart of the plate, it becomes more and more important. Balls right down the middle get hit hard a lot less often than you'd think, and the best way to get lucky and get such a pitch fouled back is to have thrown it 96 instead of 89. Last year Owens was 4th among 158 low-A pitchers (minimum 80 IP) in K%, but he was hit very hard otherwise: he had the 10th worst BABIP and the 19th worst HR/ Contact. This year he was 5th among 144 high-A pitchers (minimum 70 IP) in K%, but he had the 6th best BABIP and was a bit above average in HRC (67th). There's probably some luck and defense involved in the huge BABIP swing, but there's also no question that he's been hit much less hard. That's probably due to improved fastball command, which is a good sign. For those of you who remember Sid Fernandez of the Mets, he had that great deception but only threw about 90 and for a few years he was a very solid major league pitcher and at times was down right unhittable.
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Post by jchang on Aug 20, 2013 11:20:43 GMT -5
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