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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 19, 2018 22:53:13 GMT -5
If there's anything I can guarantee this trade deadline, it's that Hembree and a marginal prospect is NOT getting Britton. I don't get why people think Britton isn't getting much this deadline in terms of prospect value. He's the best rental reliever out there and there will be at least 5-7 teams interested in getting him. It wouldn't surprise me if Britton gets a top 10 prospect in a good farm system, never mind a top 5 prospect in the Sox system. People seem to forget that competition drives the price up on even a rental reliever. Telson, without even looking at the list of teams that could go for Britton, I'll name these teams with probable interest- Astros Red Sox Phillies Brewers Dodgers Cubs Diamondbacks There's a ton of teams willing to take the chance on Britton's ceiling, especially knowing that Britton is currently reaching that ceiling with his velocity being fully back after a full month of being back after the DL (Britton's spring training). He's going to get a top 10 prospect from a team, if not more. I almost can guarantee it. The risk is way less now that he's showing full velocity back now. With his new slider, Heath Hembree's on his way to a 1.2 bWAR season. That's 4.0 WAR of projected value at the deadline (3 1/3 * 1.2). The thing is, essentially all teams are now looking at this rationally. That's why rentals are suddenly fetching so much less.
And if Britton is as good as he was in his three great seasons, he has 1.0 WAR of value as a rental. If.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 19, 2018 23:06:03 GMT -5
I just don't see Britton costing a ton. More like a Herrera package, heck not even that good. You pay crazy high prices for top notch relievers because they aren't risky, but Britton is risky. Depends how the teams around the league views Britton, Britton is better than Herrera when both are healthy. I don't see Britton as that much of a risk. He's a rental and he's been getting stronger as the year goes along. Britton in 2016 was better, that was two years ago and the only season that is different. Look at Brittons numbers last year before he got hurt. Increased hits, walks, decreased strikeouts and a crazy high WHIP. Even his recent good run of like 7 innings has been stretched out to include extra rest. So go a head and think theres not risk because his velocity is back. There is a crap load of risk.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 19, 2018 23:08:37 GMT -5
If there's anything I can guarantee this trade deadline, it's that Hembree and a marginal prospect is NOT getting Britton. I don't get why people think Britton isn't getting much this deadline in terms of prospect value. He's the best rental reliever out there and there will be at least 5-7 teams interested in getting him. It wouldn't surprise me if Britton gets a top 10 prospect in a good farm system, never mind a top 5 prospect in the Sox system. People seem to forget that competition drives the price up on even a rental reliever. Telson, without even looking at the list of teams that could go for Britton, I'll name these teams with probable interest- Astros Red Sox Phillies Brewers Dodgers Cubs Diamondbacks There's a ton of teams willing to take the chance on Britton's ceiling, especially knowing that Britton is currently reaching that ceiling with his velocity being fully back after a full month of being back after the DL (Britton's spring training). He's going to get a top 10 prospect from a team, if not more. I almost can guarantee it. The risk is way less now that he's showing full velocity back now. With his new slider, Heath Hembree's on his way to a 1.2 bWAR season. That's 4.0 WAR of projected value at the deadline (3 1/3 * 1.2). The thing is, essentially all teams are now looking at this rationally. That's why rentals are suddenly fetching so much less.
And if Britton is as good as he was in his three great seasons, he has 1.0 WAR of value as a rental. If.
I wish GMs agreed with you because I would trade him for that prospect in two seconds.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 19, 2018 23:42:07 GMT -5
With his new slider, Heath Hembree's on his way to a 1.2 bWAR season. That's 4.0 WAR of projected value at the deadline (3 1/3 * 1.2). The thing is, essentially all teams are now looking at this rationally. That's why rentals are suddenly fetching so much less. And if Britton is as good as he was in his three great seasons, he has 1.0 WAR of value as a rental. If.
I wish GMs agreed with you because I would trade him for that prospect in two seconds. What eric just said is the reality of the situation though. A reliever is not the make it or break it trade scenario. You only need to look at WAR totals for relievers to see that. I'm pretty sure most if not all GMs see that. In the above example, switching Britton at his best for Hembree as he is now will only result in about .4 wins difference this year. It's the following years that the Orioles should more than recoup.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 19, 2018 23:50:43 GMT -5
Depends how the teams around the league views Britton, Britton is better than Herrera when both are healthy. I don't see Britton as that much of a risk. He's a rental and he's been getting stronger as the year goes along. Britton in 2016 was better, that was two years ago and the only season that is different. Look at Brittons numbers last year before he got hurt. Increased hits, walks, decreased strikeouts and a crazy high WHIP. Even his recent good run of like 7 innings has been stretched out to include extra rest. So go a head and think theres not risk because his velocity is back. There is a crap load of risk. I had forgotten about the extra rest thing, but what seems to be happening (so far) is that he started pitching vastly better, regardless of rest, after they backed off on the comeback by pitching him just twice in a nine day day stretch (June 28 to July 6). Before that he had pitched 8 times on an average 1.35 days rest (3, 2, 1, 2, 1, 0, 1, 1) and had a 113 xFIP-, .350 BABIP, and .333 HR/FB. Since the breather (where he had a 2 1 0 0 1 0 line) he's pitched 5 times, on an average 1.2 days rest (2, 1, 0, 3, 0) and has a 47 xFIP-, .300 BABIP, and .000 HR/FB. There's thus a statistical improvement trend but no overall correlation for days rest.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 20, 2018 1:03:47 GMT -5
If there's anything I can guarantee this trade deadline, it's that Hembree and a marginal prospect is NOT getting Britton. I don't get why people think Britton isn't getting much this deadline in terms of prospect value. He's the best rental reliever out there and there will be at least 5-7 teams interested in getting him. It wouldn't surprise me if Britton gets a top 10 prospect in a good farm system, never mind a top 5 prospect in the Sox system. People seem to forget that competition drives the price up on even a rental reliever. Telson, without even looking at the list of teams that could go for Britton, I'll name these teams with probable interest- Astros Red Sox Phillies Brewers Dodgers Cubs Diamondbacks There's a ton of teams willing to take the chance on Britton's ceiling, especially knowing that Britton is currently reaching that ceiling with his velocity being fully back after a full month of being back after the DL (Britton's spring training). He's going to get a top 10 prospect from a team, if not more. I almost can guarantee it. The risk is way less now that he's showing full velocity back now. With his new slider, Heath Hembree's on his way to a 1.2 bWAR season. That's 4.0 WAR of projected value at the deadline (3 1/3 * 1.2). The thing is, essentially all teams are now looking at this rationally. That's why rentals are suddenly fetching so much less.
And if Britton is as good as he was in his three great seasons, he has 1.0 WAR of value as a rental. If.
Heath Hembree is also 30 years old. Tell me why anything else but prospects are appealing to the Orioles at this point in time and I'll call you a liar. Edit- Not all rentals are coming cheap either. No one has made a really stupid deal yet, but it always comes the trade deadline for someone, usually for a at least one rental. Just wait and see.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 20, 2018 1:08:31 GMT -5
I wish GMs agreed with you because I would trade him for that prospect in two seconds. It's the following years that the Orioles should more than recoup. Hembree is 30 years old and I doubt he will get that much in a package for anything like Britton will this deadline. Perception is Britton will get a good package, reality is that 30 year old Hembree will never get a good prospect back. I seriously doubt it.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 20, 2018 1:11:10 GMT -5
Depends how the teams around the league views Britton, Britton is better than Herrera when both are healthy. I don't see Britton as that much of a risk. He's a rental and he's been getting stronger as the year goes along. Britton in 2016 was better, that was two years ago and the only season that is different. Look at Brittons numbers last year before he got hurt. Increased hits, walks, decreased strikeouts and a crazy high WHIP. Even his recent good run of like 7 innings has been stretched out to include extra rest. So go a head and think theres not risk because his velocity is back. There is a crap load of risk. He is the best option on the market for rental relievers regardless. If you want to be obligatory, yes all relievers are risks.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 20, 2018 3:22:19 GMT -5
I wish GMs agreed with you because I would trade him for that prospect in two seconds. What eric just said is the reality of the situation though. A reliever is not the make it or break it trade scenario. You only need to look at WAR totals for relievers to see that. I'm pretty sure most if not all GMs see that. In the above example, switching Britton at his best for Hembree as he is now will only result in about .4 wins difference this year. It's the following years that the Orioles should more than recoup. What are you talking about? I don't think any teams looks at Hembree like Eric does. No team is going to be like he's worth 4 war going forward, because he's on that pace this year. Its just Eric doing what he always does, overvaluing a hot streak. Maybe its real, maybe its not. That's how you look at it, because there is more proof he's not a 1.2 war reliever than he is one. No prediction model would every do that. Just look at his best season and not anything else. So I'd trade Hembree tomorrow for the 5th best prospect in an average system. Unfortunately no GM shares Eric's beliefs on Hembree. I love war it's a great tool. At the sametime it sucks for examples like this. One inning, heck one batter can be the difference between winning the division, playoff games, playoff series and the world series. I like Hembree, even defended him numerous times when posters wanted to get rid of him. He has real value at the back of a bullpen. At the sametime I don't want him pitching big innings in the playoffs. I'd easily trade Hembree for Britton, even with the risk involved. We have a surplus of good bullpen arms, but we need another real good one. You can assign whatever war values you want. Maybe it is .4 war, all I know is that if Britton is 2014 to 2016 Britton he's a massive upgrade over Hembree in the playoffs. Which is all I care about, not the .4 war. Nevermind I'm a true believer in elite relievers being highly undervalued by war.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 20, 2018 3:27:33 GMT -5
Britton in 2016 was better, that was two years ago and the only season that is different. Look at Brittons numbers last year before he got hurt. Increased hits, walks, decreased strikeouts and a crazy high WHIP. Even his recent good run of like 7 innings has been stretched out to include extra rest. So go a head and think theres not risk because his velocity is back. There is a crap load of risk. He is the best option on the market for rental relievers regardless. If you want to be obligatory, yes all relievers are risks. He's extra risky because of last year before his injury. Nevermind he hasn't been dominant this year, only his current streak. I'm down for trading for him and gambling. I'm just not paying a price that acts like he's 2014 to 2016 Britton. If the price is right lets get him, if its crazy high I'd pass.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 20, 2018 3:35:11 GMT -5
He is the best option on the market for rental relievers regardless. If you want to be obligatory, yes all relievers are risks. He's extra risky because of last year before his injury. Nevermind he hasn't been dominant this year, only his current streak. I'm down for trading for him and gambling. I'm just not paying a price that acts like he's 2014 to 2016 Britton. If the price is right lets get him, if its crazy high I'd pass. I do not disagree with this. I wouldn't pay the price either. Seems like if you're going to pay a godoffer price for a reliever this deadline, Iglesias is the guy if you want to overpay.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 20, 2018 3:54:04 GMT -5
How did I miss this article? fancredsports.com/articles/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-both-sides-could-win-i"Zach Britton has a big market, between the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox and likely also the Indians, Braves and several others. “He looks like the Britton of old,” one scout who saw a recent save said." "The Phillies people are also known to love Orioles closer Zach Britton who they had in Baltimore too while they were there" "The second base/third base issues could be solved by someone like Asdrubal Cabrera, though Rafael Devers isn’t expected out long, and right now the total focus is on the bullpen." Asdrubal Cabrera seems like a okay fit. Better than Phillips or Holt, but I hope the Sox do focus on Dozier at some point. Zach Britton predictably is a high commodity right now. The Sox remain only focused on the bullpen as of a day ago. The Phillies seem like a huge threat to steal Britton away from the Sox. Edit- Heyman also suggested that if the Cardinals fall too far out of the race, Carlos Martinez could become available and the Yankees could go after him.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 20, 2018 10:50:03 GMT -5
What eric just said is the reality of the situation though. A reliever is not the make it or break it trade scenario. You only need to look at WAR totals for relievers to see that. I'm pretty sure most if not all GMs see that. In the above example, switching Britton at his best for Hembree as he is now will only result in about .4 wins difference this year. It's the following years that the Orioles should more than recoup. What are you talking about? I don't think any teams looks at Hembree like Eric does. No team is going to be like he's worth 4 war going forward, because he's on that pace this year. Its just Eric doing what he always does, overvaluing a hot streak. Maybe its real, maybe its not. That's how you look at it, because there is more proof he's not a 1.2 war reliever than he is one. No prediction model would every do that. Just look at his best season and not anything else. So I'd trade Hembree tomorrow for the 5th best prospect in an average system. Unfortunately no GM shares Eric's beliefs on Hembree. I love war it's a great tool. At the same time it sucks for examples like this. One inning, heck one batter can be the difference between winning the division, playoff games, playoff series and the world series. I like Hembree, even defended him numerous times when posters wanted to get rid of him. He has real value at the back of a bullpen. At the sametime I don't want him pitching big innings in the playoffs. I'd easily trade Hembree for Britton, even with the risk involved. We have a surplus of good bullpen arms, but we need another real good one. You can assign whatever war values you want. Maybe it is .4 war, all I know is that if Britton is 2014 to 2016 Britton he's a massive upgrade over Hembree in the playoffs. Which is all I care about, not the .4 war. Nevermind I'm a true believer in elite relievers being highly undervalued by war. His slider is a completely different pitch, getting completely different results. We saw that right away and talked about it here. He's not in a "hot streak"; he's been consistent all year. He's not going to revert to throwing the pitch the way he used to.
You're correct that no prediction model would project him as a 1.2 WAR reliever going forward, because prediction models are stupid, and are designed to be stupid. They tell you what a player is likeliest to do if he's the same player as he has been. Look at the projections for Jose Bautista and J.D. Martinez and other players who transformed themselves, after their breakouts; they are literally a source of comedy. They would be a source of deep embarrassment to the authors of the systems if the models did what you think they do.
No, he's not a 7th inning guy. He's a guy that can pitch two innings of better than MLB average relief at any point in the game, and there are a lot of good teams that don't have a guy like that in their pen.
Yes, it's true that a single batter can change a post-season. But, no, that doesn't make WAR a lousy tool for projecting the value of deadline acquisitions. The odds that Zach Britton will get the WS-deciding batter out, and whoever emerges as our other set-up man doesn't, are still small. (To use an example from a bygone era, the difference between a .260 hitter and a .300 hitter is one hit per week). There are hundreds of those situations and we know that the difference between a Britton and a Kelly / Brasier / Thornburg is just a portion of a win over a third of a season.
I'm not saying you're wrong to put extra emphasis on high-leverage situations against elite hitters, on order to maximize your post-season chances. That's why I look at splits by batting order position, and career reliever clutch differential (which is not random, according to a study I did). My disagreement with you is only over your claim that Zach Britton is something like 20+ times as valuable, outing-by-outing, as Heath Hembree is. (Hembree has 10 times the years of control, and you seem to be saying that Britton has at least twice the trade value.)
bWAR is already heavily adjusted to make relievers more valuable than they would appear to be based on their RA.
What you miss in you entire Britton vs. Hembree screed is that Britton's value maxes out at 1 WAR. If you get one year of Hembree nearly as good as this year, that's a wash in terms of value for making the playoffs. And now you're weighing Britton's value in one post-season versus Hembree's two remaining years of control.
Re the trade market -- it takes two GMs bidding against each other to drive a player up beyond their on-paper value. That happened big time with Machado, in part because he has such huge value for his next contract and it seems very likely that having him as a rental increases your chances of winning the winter bidding war. He was also easily the best option at two positions. Britton lacks the re-signing value and the alternatives are quite a bit closer in value (no pun intended). I just don't see two GM's getting into a crazy bidding war. He'll be overvalued, which is why I can see him and Hembree being of roughly equal value (and if Britton were to fetch a bit more, that wouldn't surprise me). But his price is not going to hurt anyone.
BTW, Hembree would not be dealt to the Orioles. I believe I already mentioned a three-team deal. Or Hembree goes for prospect(s) and our prospect(s) go for Britton.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 20, 2018 11:51:41 GMT -5
ok, i hate to do this, but I live and work in New York - the Yanks fans are howling at the cost the Dodgers and Indians just paid - howling. The Stanton trade looks worse and worse for Jeter by the minute ... The Stanton deal is pretty insane and he has like a 30% K rate on the year. Not to mention few teams could afford the deal and Stanton only would approve trades to a few places. Not very comparable. My boss is a Yankee fan and the Stanton deal scares him. That being said, I think the Sox need to focus on getting a starter or an infielder with plus fielding and versatility. Our bullpen is already pretty good IMO. Maybe if ERod and Pedroia didn't get injured it would be a higher priority but our track record acquiring relievers is bad anyway.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 20, 2018 11:57:10 GMT -5
He's extra risky because of last year before his injury. Nevermind he hasn't been dominant this year, only his current streak. I'm down for trading for him and gambling. I'm just not paying a price that acts like he's 2014 to 2016 Britton. If the price is right lets get him, if its crazy high I'd pass. I do not disagree with this. I wouldn't pay the price either. Seems like if you're going to pay a godoffer price for a reliever this deadline, Iglesias is the guy if you want to overpay. A team is only paying a godawful price (Mejia, and that’s debatable given Cleveland’s window, impeding two FAs, and catching depth) if the return *has controllable years.* That also makes a pitcher like Raisel Iglesias **a totally different beast from Britton.** and that’s before the health/performance/risk even comes up. They’re in different worlds, value-wise. Also, a “system top-10 prospect” is a terrible way to connote value. A padres top-10 *is top-100 in all of baseball*. A Red Sox top-3 is probably closer to top-150. There’s NO overlap there. And I’m pretty certain neither I, nor anyone else, ever said the Sox wouldn’t have to give up *something*. My point was that it needn’t be a too-100, which the Sox don’t have. Machado, as one of the best deadline rentals EVER traded, yielded one prospect who falls in the top-100 in all of baseball. There’s also a huge difference from 1 to 10 in any system. And if the Sox did a 1-for-1, no matter who they gave up it probably wouldn’t be a crippling loss, because their system is all longshots right now. That doesn’t mean i wouldn’t care, because i have my binkies. But that’s the reality. So now you’ve gone to claiming somebody would *have* to give up “a top-10 prospect.” I mean, has that EVER been in doubt? How is that news? Of course they will, but the statement is meaningless because in one system that might be too-100 in all of baseball, in another, like the Sox, the #10 guy probably isn’t in the top-500 in all of baseball. Again, i highly doubt the O’s get anything better than a top-150 overall, and probably more like a top-200 plus probably a lottery ticket arm or two. Now, for the Sox that’s probably Hernandez/Shawaryn at worst. But they do have the pieces. They *could* do it. Doesn’t mean they should. But I highly doubt some team is going to pony up a major future piece for a damaged rental with command problems still working back from injury, simply because he *used* to be incredible. It’s certainly possible though, because there are silly people out there.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 20, 2018 12:31:38 GMT -5
How did I miss this article? fancredsports.com/articles/inside-baseball-mlb-notes-both-sides-could-win-i"Zach Britton has a big market, between the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox and likely also the Indians, Braves and several others. “He looks like the Britton of old,” one scout who saw a recent save said." "The Phillies people are also known to love Orioles closer Zach Britton who they had in Baltimore too while they were there" "The second base/third base issues could be solved by someone like Asdrubal Cabrera, though Rafael Devers isn’t expected out long, and right now the total focus is on the bullpen." Asdrubal Cabrera seems like a okay fit. Better than Phillips or Holt, but I hope the Sox do focus on Dozier at some point. Zach Britton predictably is a high commodity right now. The Sox remain only focused on the bullpen as of a day ago. The Phillies seem like a huge threat to steal Britton away from the Sox. Edit- Heyman also suggested that if the Cardinals fall too far out of the race, Carlos Martinez could become available and the Yankees could go after him. I could definitely see Atlanta, Chicago, or Philly. NY has probably the best bullpen in baseball, they absolutely don’t need him. They need a SP or two. Martinez would be a coup, but I could see it. And, unfortunately, I could see them grabbing Britton simply to keep him away from the Sox...or drive up the price prohibitively. I highly doubt Cleveland keeps going on relievers, tho. Another name out there who would probably be out of the Sox’s range, but would be terrific, is Ottavino if the Rockies stumble. Idk...I understand why people get so frustrated with Hembree, but like Eric I’ve looked at his numbers, his progression the past couple years (including a long pre-season analysis of him and Barnes), and he’s just a lot better than people give him credit for. He can be maddening, but I’m not sold that any of these additions is really appreciably THAT much better. I like Britton specifically because his cost should be *relatively* low, and he’s a sinkerballer LH who has huge upside. Soria’s good, but I’m not sure he moves the needle so much. I’m not sold on Familia, but that’s probably unfairly because of last year. He’s been very good to excellent otherwise. Idk...maybe it’s the SwStr decline (it used to be incredible) in tandem with his velo drop, or the change in his approach (Fstr % drop has been big, which is very troubling, but his zone% is up overall, which is also kind of troubling...seems like he either isn’t fooling people, or he’s falling behind too much and having to throw strikes, making him more predictable). Unfortunately, the Sox really need the lefty, or I’d probably like Soria and Familia more. That said, any rental will probably come fairly cheaply. Edit: Whatever they DO do, I’ve resigned myself to it and I’m totally OK with it, as long as they get value. Rentals are bad value by nature, but the system is so thin it’s unlikely anyone they trade becomes a guy. I’d hate to see volume, but a few smart trades (if they could get something for Hembree and maybe flip that return along with a few guys for Dozier and Britton) that’s fine by me. In all honesty, as much as I root for all these young guys, and watching minor leaguers develop is probably my favorite part of baseball, this team is on the verge of history. I’ve never been a “win-now” proponent, because it usually means “lose (lots) later,” but wth, how cool would 117 wins and a WS title be?
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Post by telson13 on Jul 20, 2018 13:01:09 GMT -5
Fwiw, Hembree has a 3.20 SIERRA, his hard contact rate has dropped from mid-30s to low-20s this year, and he’s gotten slightly more soft contact, up from the mid-teens to 20%. Yeah, homers still seem to be a problem. But not egregiously so. His control has been uncharacteristically off. I’d guess it’s got something to do with his SL command, because it’s a wipeout pitch that he uses outside the zone. His O-Sw rate keeps trending up, but his O-Contact keeps going down. He overall works in the zone less, but his contact rates keep getting lower, too. He’s fooling hitters. His LD and FB rates are both trending down the past three years while GB incrementally increase, and his IFFB rate is up quite a bit.
Right now, Hembree’s got a K/9 over 12. His SwStr rate IS 15.0%!! That’s bordering on ELITE. It’s not Hader at 18-20%, but for reference, Kimbrel is a career 16.6%. And Hembree’s not just having luck this year...it was 14.1% last year. Matt Barnes has been terrific (on pace for 2 WAR as a reliever), but his SwStr rate is 12.6%. Hembree is good; he’s just not *awesome*. And I think a lot of perception of him is filtered through the past, just like it is with Britton. But at the moment, they’re headed in different directions. That’s not to say Britton isn’t the perfect fit for this team, because he is. But 30 y/o or not, somebody’s going to look at Hembree’s trajectory and think “what can I use ya fahr?” He’s just a lot better than people give him credit for, because he’s not *dominant consistently.*
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Post by incandenza on Jul 20, 2018 13:17:51 GMT -5
He’s just a lot better than people give him credit for, because he’s not *dominant consistently.* This. I think between last season and this season, a lot of people have legitimately forgotten what an average bullpen looks like.
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Post by oilcan73 on Jul 20, 2018 13:22:56 GMT -5
There are too many teams in on Britton for the Sox to be able to obtain him. The price is going to be too high by the time he is dealt. I think the best option is to made a trade with the NYM for Familia and Cabrera. They are both short-term rentals, so they won't cost too much and the trade fills 2 needs at RP and 2B. Cut Nunez loose and put Hole back where he belongs as the utility guy. I would prefer a power lefty out of the pen, but I really don't see how they can do anything for someone under control for 2-3 years. Cabrera has K'd 74 times this year so far, but he has hit 16 HR's and would lengthen the lineup in the 7 hole, which I think is a major need. If not, the 6-9 guys in the lineup are going to get abused by good pitching in the playoffs.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 20, 2018 13:23:23 GMT -5
If anyone remembers, in 2007 they went out and got Gagné and he actually made the bullpen worse. That is definitely a possibility with these guys.
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Post by oilcan73 on Jul 20, 2018 13:25:36 GMT -5
He’s just a lot better than people give him credit for, because he’s not *dominant consistently.* This. I think between last season and this season, a lot of people have legitimately forgotten what an average bullpen looks like. Inconsistency is the problem I have with this years pen. When Kely, Barnes and Hembree are all throwing the ball well, the pen is dominant, but then there are nights when they scare the hell out of fans and get into slums like Kelly is right now. Hopefully, the AS break will allow Kelly to get hot again, because when he is hot, he is as good as they come in the 7th or 8th innings.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2018 14:33:03 GMT -5
If anyone remembers, in 2007 they went out and got Gagné and he actually made the bullpen worse. That is definitely a possibility with these guys. Not every reliever is going to turn into Eric Gagne. That's like assuming that every reliever is going to impact a team like Andrew Miller did Cleveland in 2016. And that's not the case. The Sox wouldn't be getting a reliever to WAR calculation deal. They're looking for a high leverage option to use in tandem with Barnes and Kimbrel because those are the only two have been consistently excellent all season long. Hembree, Workman, and maybe even Brasier are all interchangeable types, perfect for the middle innings. Thornburg could return to being a high leverage late inning guy and if he does that's a bonus, but at this point it's not something that can be counted on. Kelly is too streaky to be trusted in high leverage. When he's going good you can put him there, but when he's on a streak like this, no way. This is about getting better relief pitching options to play against NY, Houston, and a NL opponent in October, not about trying to make an impact move that creates an extra 2 full wins the remainder of the season, although the upside is that it can afford more rest for Barnes who has been heavily leaned on this season. And as you might remember. The Sox have had relievers get worn down by post-season. Since you bring up 2007, do you now what one of the main reasons the Sox had for getting Gagne? They were afraid of overworking Okajima, who by the end of the Series was gassed. In 2013, Tazawa and Breslow were leaned on heavily and in Tazawa's case they limited him to being a ROOGY and Breslow was toast by the World Series. It happens. High quality depth options are great things to have. In middle relief the Sox are loaded. When it comes to high leverage, they can certainly use another arm. And if he's a lefty like Britton, all the better.
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Post by dmaineah on Jul 20, 2018 16:35:00 GMT -5
Edit- Heyman also suggested that if the Cardinals fall too far out of the race, Carlos Martinez could become available and the Yankees could go after him. That would be a nice addition for the Sox. He is signed for less then 12m per year for the next 3 years with two club options (about 17m per)
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 20, 2018 16:52:08 GMT -5
If anyone remembers, in 2007 they went out and got Gagné and he actually made the bullpen worse. That is definitely a possibility with these guys. Not every reliever is going to turn into Eric Gagne. That's like assuming that every reliever is going to impact a team like Andrew Miller did Cleveland in 2016. And that's not the case. The Sox wouldn't be getting a reliever to WAR calculation deal. They're looking for a high leverage option to use in tandem with Barnes and Kimbrel because those are the only two have been consistently excellent all season long. Hembree, Workman, and maybe even Brasier are all interchangeable types, perfect for the middle innings. Thornburg could return to being a high leverage late inning guy and if he does that's a bonus, but at this point it's not something that can be counted on. Kelly is too streaky to be trusted in high leverage. When he's going good you can put him there, but when he's on a streak like this, no way. This is about getting better relief pitching options to play against NY, Houston, and a NL opponent in October, not about trying to make an impact move that creates an extra 2 full wins the remainder of the season, although the upside is that it can afford more rest for Barnes who has been heavily leaned on this season. I think WAR is a terrible way to evaluate a relief pitcher so I hope you’re right regarding the Sox not trying to win some WAR calculation when trading for a reliever. I went thru Barnes game log then other day and it was disconcerting to see that in his only 8th inning opportunities versus playoff teams trying to protect a 1 run lead he coughed up the lead and put them behind on each occasion. Then you look at hit stats and he’s better in the 7th than the 8th and he’s progressively worse in each situation where the game gets tighter (4 run game is better than a 3 run which is better than a 2 run which is better than a 1 run game). I don’t know what this all means but it certainly leads to fears that he gets tighter in bigger situations and doesn’t pitch as well. Maybe in the second half he will pitch great versus Cleveland and NY in big spots and he will be awesome in the playoffs but it’s a concern.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 20, 2018 17:13:22 GMT -5
Edit- Heyman also suggested that if the Cardinals fall too far out of the race, Carlos Martinez could become available and the Yankees could go after him. That would be a nice addition for the Sox. He is signed for less then 12m per year for the next 3 years with two club options (about 17m per) I don’t think the Sox have what would be necessary to make a trade like that. I can’t believe the Yankees didn’t pull the trigger on Cole; I bet they regret that right now.
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