SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 20, 2018 17:34:35 GMT -5
What are you talking about? I don't think any teams looks at Hembree like Eric does. No team is going to be like he's worth 4 war going forward, because he's on that pace this year. Its just Eric doing what he always does, overvaluing a hot streak. Maybe its real, maybe its not. That's how you look at it, because there is more proof he's not a 1.2 war reliever than he is one. No prediction model would every do that. Just look at his best season and not anything else. So I'd trade Hembree tomorrow for the 5th best prospect in an average system. Unfortunately no GM shares Eric's beliefs on Hembree. I love war it's a great tool. At the same time it sucks for examples like this. One inning, heck one batter can be the difference between winning the division, playoff games, playoff series and the world series. I like Hembree, even defended him numerous times when posters wanted to get rid of him. He has real value at the back of a bullpen. At the sametime I don't want him pitching big innings in the playoffs. I'd easily trade Hembree for Britton, even with the risk involved. We have a surplus of good bullpen arms, but we need another real good one. You can assign whatever war values you want. Maybe it is .4 war, all I know is that if Britton is 2014 to 2016 Britton he's a massive upgrade over Hembree in the playoffs. Which is all I care about, not the .4 war. Nevermind I'm a true believer in elite relievers being highly undervalued by war. His slider is a completely different pitch, getting completely different results. We saw that right away and talked about it here. He's not in a "hot streak"; he's been consistent all year. He's not going to revert to throwing the pitch the way he used to.
You're correct that no prediction model would project him as a 1.2 WAR reliever going forward, because prediction models are stupid, and are designed to be stupid. They tell you what a player is likeliest to do if he's the same player as he has been. Look at the projections for Jose Bautista and J.D. Martinez and other players who transformed themselves, after their breakouts; they are literally a source of comedy. They would be a source of deep embarrassment to the authors of the systems if the models did what you think they do.
No, he's not a 7th inning guy. He's a guy that can pitch two innings of better than MLB average relief at any point in the game, and there are a lot of good teams that don't have a guy like that in their pen.
Yes, it's true that a single batter can change a post-season. But, no, that doesn't make WAR a lousy tool for projecting the value of deadline acquisitions. The odds that Zach Britton will get the WS-deciding batter out, and whoever emerges as our other set-up man doesn't, are still small. (To use an example from a bygone era, the difference between a .260 hitter and a .300 hitter is one hit per week). There are hundreds of those situations and we know that the difference between a Britton and a Kelly / Brasier / Thornburg is just a portion of a win over a third of a season.
I'm not saying you're wrong to put extra emphasis on high-leverage situations against elite hitters, on order to maximize your post-season chances. That's why I look at splits by batting order position, and career reliever clutch differential (which is not random, according to a study I did). My disagreement with you is only over your claim that Zach Britton is something like 20+ times as valuable, outing-by-outing, as Heath Hembree is. (Hembree has 10 times the years of control, and you seem to be saying that Britton has at least twice the trade value.)
bWAR is already heavily adjusted to make relievers more valuable than they would appear to be based on their RA.
What you miss in you entire Britton vs. Hembree screed is that Britton's value maxes out at 1 WAR. If you get one year of Hembree nearly as good as this year, that's a wash in terms of value for making the playoffs. And now you're weighing Britton's value in one post-season versus Hembree's two remaining years of control.
Re the trade market -- it takes two GMs bidding against each other to drive a player up beyond their on-paper value. That happened big time with Machado, in part because he has such huge value for his next contract and it seems very likely that having him as a rental increases your chances of winning the winter bidding war. He was also easily the best option at two positions. Britton lacks the re-signing value and the alternatives are quite a bit closer in value (no pun intended). I just don't see two GM's getting into a crazy bidding war. He'll be overvalued, which is why I can see him and Hembree being of roughly equal value (and if Britton were to fetch a bit more, that wouldn't surprise me). But his price is not going to hurt anyone.
BTW, Hembree would not be dealt to the Orioles. I believe I already mentioned a three-team deal. Or Hembree goes for prospect(s) and our prospect(s) go for Britton.
Looking at Fangraphs pitch values that isn't the case. His slider pitch value and even velocity is almost exactly the same as in 2016. His biggest improvement is in his fastball value. Not a hot stretch ? April- .706 OPS 1.200 WHIP May- .895 OPS 1.727 WHIP June- .321 OPS .750 WHIP July- .879 OPS 2.063 WHIP He was dominant in June giving up just one hit, but also backed by a .000 BAbip. Sure looks like a hot stretch to me. I'm not missing anything, you seem to have missed what I was saying. I don't care if we lose the trade based on war, not if it helps us during the playoffs. Certainly not when were talking about acouple of war. Nevermind I don't think Hembree will come anywhere close to being a 4 war player like you do. I see one great month, not a new player.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 20, 2018 17:43:17 GMT -5
This. I think between last season and this season, a lot of people have legitimately forgotten what an average bullpen looks like. Inconsistency is the problem I have with this years pen. When Kely, Barnes and Hembree are all throwing the ball well, the pen is dominant, but then there are nights when they scare the hell out of fans and get into slums like Kelly is right now. Hopefully, the AS break will allow Kelly to get hot again, because when he is hot, he is as good as they come in the 7th or 8th innings. A valid concern, except for the fact that it's been the most consistent good bullpen in MLB.
Realize that they have been exactly as inconsistent as you think they are. What you're missing is that relief pitching is always inconsistent and often insanely so. We're been a lot better than average this year.
FanGraphs measures separately the value towards winning of all the good relief appearances, and the value against winning of all the bad ones.
The Red Sox rank 16th in MLB in the value of their good outings. You might think that's a lack of opportunity, but they rank 8th in leverage pitched in.
They rank 2nd best in the negative value of their bad outings. Only the Astros have been hurt less by bad outings, but we swamp them in the value of good ones.
If you look at the top 7 bullpens by Win Probability Added, the Sox are last in positive WPA and first in lowest negative WPA.
I just cooked up a measure of relief consistency (*). It's on a scale where 100 is average and lower is better. Here are the Sox key arms plus some other names of interest, with their ranks among the top 91 relievers by leverage (three per team, minimum 20 IP)
81 Kirby Yates (11) 87 Chad Green (16)
88 Kimbrel (18) 90 Hembree (--) 91 Adam Ottavino (29) 91 Raisel Iglesias (30)
93 Kelly (34) 96 Barnes (39) 96 Chapman (40) 101 Hector Rondon (51)
102 Soria (54) 103 Familia (58) 103 David Robertson (61) 106 Chris Devenski (62)
118 Fernando Rodney (82)
129 Brad Hand (87)
Kimbrel's been more consistent than Chapman or Rondon. Barnes and Kelly have both been more consistent than Robertson or Devenski, and more consistent than Soria, Familia, or Devenski. Chad Green and Brad Peacock (90, but with too low a LI to qualify) are the only two notably consistent relievers on our rivals.
* It's simply +WPA minus -WPA, per IP, relative to what you'd expect given the leverage they had pitched in, which explains 78% of that number.
|
|
|
Post by tizzle on Jul 20, 2018 21:44:09 GMT -5
Familia isn't coming in to close the Yankees Mets game. Has he been dealt?
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 20, 2018 21:50:17 GMT -5
Familia isn't coming in to close the Yankees Mets game. Has he been dealt? Reportedly, Oakland.
|
|
|
Post by tizzle on Jul 20, 2018 21:54:18 GMT -5
Familia isn't coming in to close the Yankees Mets game. Has he been dealt? Reportedly, Oakland. Interesting. I know they're in striking distance of the WC, but I would guess it must have cost a lot to get a closer like that for an uphill battle to a one-game playoff.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jul 20, 2018 21:58:15 GMT -5
Interesting. I know they're in striking distance of the WC, but I would guess it must have cost a lot to get a closer like that for an uphill battle to a one-game playoff. I doubt it would be a lot, unless it cost more to get the trade done now instead of 10 days from now.
|
|
|
Post by tizzle on Jul 20, 2018 22:05:01 GMT -5
Interesting. I know they're in striking distance of the WC, but I would guess it must have cost a lot to get a closer like that for an uphill battle to a one-game playoff. I doubt it would be a lot, unless it cost more to get the trade done now instead of 10 days from now. Well, I think this could devolve into semantic discussion of the concept of "a lot", but given the Red Sox, Cubs and Astros pursuing late-inning relief, I would expect he didn't come cheaply. Less than Hand, certainly, but a percentage less than that would still be what I would consider a healthy cost. I'll just leave it at that.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 20, 2018 22:26:13 GMT -5
Brian Dozier speculation....ON!!! Dave's buddy is checking him out tonight.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 20, 2018 22:33:00 GMT -5
I'll ask posters once again to keep the thread focused on the trade market and what's happening in there that might help this team. Endless diversions into hypothetical reliever valuations doesn't count. There are other threads where you can do that.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 20, 2018 22:39:18 GMT -5
Brian Dozier speculation....ON!!! Dave's buddy is checking him out tonight. In fairness, Wren could also be checking out Moustakas, Soria, or gasp Rodney. I hope Wren all of a sudden has a bad bladder if Rodney comes into the game. Please don't look at Rodney.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 20, 2018 22:55:20 GMT -5
The Mets are so cheap. They'll take the money over prospects lol.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 20, 2018 22:58:52 GMT -5
Seems like the Sox could land him if they take on all of Familia's contract.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 20, 2018 23:39:42 GMT -5
I think the question to ask is whether the return on investment is worth it if they have to go over the cap. He doesn't bring all that much to the table in my opinion. Barnes has a better K rate, and FIP.
I know people react game-to-game but the Sox are at just about 70% wins for the season. Somebody's been closing out those late innings.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 20, 2018 23:59:38 GMT -5
I think the question to ask is whether the return on investment is worth it if they have to go over the cap. He doesn't bring all that much to the table in my opinion. Barnes has a better K rate, and FIP. I know people react game-to-game but the Sox are at just about 70% wins for the season. Somebody's been closing out those late innings. This is true but if you look at the teams the Sox actually will play in October, the Indians (who the Sox have yet to play), the Mariners, the Astros, and the Yankees, the Sox are around 50%, not 70% and that pct% goes down if the A's do catch the Mariners. There's a lot of awful teams out there this year, more than most years. I just think those late innings will look different against markedly better competition. Just so I'm clear - I'm not actually referring to Familia. As far as I'm concerned the A's can have him. I don't think that highly of him and don't think he's worth going over the luxury tax's highest threshold for. I think Soria and Britton are worth it and I think adding Dozier as well would be beneficial.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 21, 2018 1:08:47 GMT -5
I hope this is true:
Chris Cotillo Verified account @chriscotillo 3h3 hours ago
If Jeurys Familia is being traded tonight, it's NOT to the Red Sox. Boston is not on the verge of any deal at this time, per source.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 21, 2018 1:19:25 GMT -5
This will have an effect:
Pete Abraham Verified account @peteabe Following Following @peteabe
Drew Pomeranz will come off the DL and start Tuesday for the #RedSox. ... Steven Wright will not be back any time soon however. Still issues with his knee. ... Rafael Devers will work out today and could be activated tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 21, 2018 1:35:31 GMT -5
I think the question to ask is whether the return on investment is worth it if they have to go over the cap. He doesn't bring all that much to the table in my opinion. Barnes has a better K rate, and FIP. I know people react game-to-game but the Sox are at just about 70% wins for the season. Somebody's been closing out those late innings. I'm not really hoping for the trade, I'm not even sure Familia is even the best option the Sox can get. I was just reporting what was being reported on Twitter. The fact that Wren was at the Minnesota and Kansas City game was the most telling thing of the night for me. I hope it's all connected to Dozier.
|
|
|
Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 21, 2018 1:42:47 GMT -5
This will have an effect: Pete Abraham Verified account @peteabe Following Following @peteabe Drew Pomeranz will come off the DL and start Tuesday for the #RedSox. ... Steven Wright will not be back any time soon however. Still issues with his knee. ... Rafael Devers will work out today and could be activated tomorrow. Wright was set to throw bullpen sessions over the allstar break. Instead he got shut down yet again. Not good.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
|
Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2018 8:54:53 GMT -5
bWAR/32 starts of the guys he lists; "Luck" here is points of wOBA allowed according to Statcast, with positive values being lucky. The rule of thumb here is that .015 is about 1 WAR per 32 starts.
Name GS WAR/ Luck YOC Mike Fiers 18 4.1 .004 1 Kyle Gibson 19 4.0 .015 1 Zack Wheeler 18 2.0 -.001 1 Marco Estrada 17 1.9 -.008 FA Ivan Nova 18 1.6 .002 1 Fran. Liriano* 15 1.5 .036 FA Nathan Eovaldi 9 1.4 .015 FA Matt Harvey 16 1.4 .011 FA James Shields 20 1.3 .034 FA Chris Archer 15 1.1 .002 3 (w/ options) J.A. Happ* 19 1.0 -.007 FA Jake Odorizzi 20 1.0 -.010 1 Tyson Ross 19 0.7 .012 FA Lance Lynn 18 -0.4 -.018 FA
Unless the Yankees trade for Fiers before his next start (7/27), he'd have to open the showdown series and push one or more guys back an extra day -- and Tanaka, Severino, and CC are all scheduled for an extra day already.
We're going to miss Gibson when the Twins come to town, but he'd be on track to pitch game 4 .
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 21, 2018 10:04:24 GMT -5
Familia isn't coming in to close the Yankees Mets game. Has he been dealt? Reportedly, Oakland. That’s a fascinating move to me. That puts their ‘pen at 3-deep (really deep, too), and he’s a good fit for that park (shouldn’t hurt him too much coming from Citi cavern). I guess they’re betting on the M’s luck being wholly unsustainable (probably a good bet). I’m pretty sure they’re the second wildcard anyway, but that move makes them even more dangerous in the postseason.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 21, 2018 10:10:52 GMT -5
bWAR/32 starts of the guys he lists; "Luck" here is points of wOBA allowed according to Statcast, with positive values being lucky. The rule of thumb here is that .015 is about 1 WAR per 32 starts.
Name GS WAR/ Luck YOC Mike Fiers 18 4.1 .004 1 Kyle Gibson 19 4.0 .015 1 Zack Wheeler 18 2.0 -.001 1 Marco Estrada 17 1.9 -.008 FA Ivan Nova 18 1.6 .002 1 Fran. Liriano* 15 1.5 .036 FA Nathan Eovaldi 9 1.4 .015 FA Matt Harvey 16 1.4 .011 FA James Shields 20 1.3 .034 FA Chris Archer 15 1.1 .002 3 (w/ options) J.A. Happ* 19 1.0 -.007 FA Jake Odorizzi 20 1.0 -.010 1 Tyson Ross 19 0.7 .012 FA Lance Lynn 18 -0.4 -.018 FA
Unless the Yankees trade for Fiers before his next start (7/27), he'd have to open the showdown series and push one or more guys back an extra day -- and Tanaka, Severino, and CC are all scheduled for an extra day already.
We're going to miss Gibson when the Twins come to town, but he'd be on track to pitch game 4 .
I still like Harvey to the Sox as a low-cost option with some upside, although there’s always the personality issue. But at the very least he’s insurance down the stretch.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Jul 21, 2018 10:14:49 GMT -5
FWIW, I like Wheeler too, but that extra control year probably drives the price past palatable.
|
|
|
Post by Canseco on Jul 21, 2018 11:37:19 GMT -5
Apologies if anyone has previously brought this up, but what might the reacquisition of Jose Iglesias cost? I have to believe he’d be a lot cheaper than Dozier, and the defensive flexibility and decent speed seem like a beautiful fit for the Sox’ needs.
|
|
|
Post by ortiz34 on Jul 21, 2018 11:37:25 GMT -5
Going off of the Wren reports last night, it seems like the guy people want is Dozier. Reports in the last month suggest that the guys the Sox have interest in are Moustakas,Rodney,and Merrifield. Doubt Moustakas unless he can play 2nd base.
|
|
|
Post by ortiz34 on Jul 21, 2018 11:43:26 GMT -5
Apologies if anyone has previously brought this up, but what might the reacquisition of Jose Iglesias cost? I have to believe he’d be a lot cheaper than Dozier, and the defensive flexibility and decent speed seem like a beautiful fit for the Sox’ needs. Disagree with this. The Sox need another bat in the lineup. If your expecting to go to war with the Astros,against that rotation,you need another bat. Unless you can tell me a 100 percent healthy Pedroia is walking through that door
|
|
|