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Post by soxcentral on Jul 15, 2018 20:27:40 GMT -5
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Post by soxcentral on Jul 15, 2018 20:29:12 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2018 16:50:29 GMT -5
Since this no longer says "News Only," I suppose a discussion of needs strategy is in order.
1) SP? There's a scenario where this is a huge need, one where it's not at all a need, and one (far the likeliest) where it's unclear whether it's a need. Of course, that's if Pomeranz shows nothing in his three reaming starts before the deadline, is great, or is somewhere in between. I don't envy DDo having to make this call.
(We can talk about who we might need, but any assertions about the likelihood of needing it ought to be greeted with criticism. If you really know what Drew Pomeranz will do in his next three starts, then please make a huge donation to the board, because obviously you're a stock-market billionaire. And if you feel you know what he'll do, I'm humbly requesting that you keep that private. Nobody knows. Your guess is not interesting to others.)
2) 2B. I've looked at the numbers and I'm very much in favor of replacing (or supplementing) Eduardo Nunez with Brian Dozier, assuming the price is right. Mix and match Dozier and Holt day-by-day and that's a significant upgrade over Holt and Nunez. He won't be Pearce (who actually leads all AL 1B in bWAR/G!) but he'll help.
3) Upgrading the 8th inning as outlined in the bullpen thread (q.v.)
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Post by jmei on Jul 16, 2018 17:47:45 GMT -5
And if you feel you know what he'll do, I'm humbly requesting that you keep that private. Nobody knows. Your guess is not interesting to others.) With all due respect, please leave the moderating to the moderators. This is a discussion forum in which folks should feel free to share their thoughts. Let’s not pretend that any of our analysis is that far removed from being a “guess.” Thanks. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 16, 2018 18:24:43 GMT -5
The other part I don't get about Eric's post was the part where he's mixing and matching with Dozier and Holt. Dozier has 100 times more power than Holt and Dozier has been twice the hitter holt has been in both their careers. If the Sox get Dozier, he is the man at 2B full time and Holt goes back to the super utility role.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 16, 2018 19:54:14 GMT -5
Since this no longer says "News Only," I suppose a discussion of needs strategy is in order. 1) SP? There's a scenario where this is a huge need, one where it's not at all a need, and one (far the likeliest) where it's unclear whether it's a need. Of course, that's if Pomeranz shows nothing in his three reaming starts before the deadline, is great, or is somewhere in between. I don't envy DDo having to make this call. (We can talk about who we might need, but any assertions about the likelihood of needing it ought to be greeted with criticism. If you really know what Drew Pomeranz will do in his next three starts, then please make a huge donation to the board, because obviously you're a stock-market billionaire. And if you feel you know what he'll do, I'm humbly requesting that you keep that private. Nobody knows. Your guess is not interesting to others.) That makes no sense whatsoever. That's like saying don't guess and tell us if Machado is going to get traded because unless you have a crystal ball you really don't know, even though most of the evidence points us in a direction of he's going to get traded, and do we know which team? No, but the best evidence based on rumors and need suggests the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, or Yankees. The point is no we don't know how Pomeranz is going to do the next few starts, but the evidence that we have to work with (diminished velocity, poor control, hard contact, bad short outings) can lead a reasonable person to believe that he isn't simply going to flip a switch and find it, and even if he did have a really good outing that doesn't mean that poof his problems are solved and the Sox don't really need a starter. I think the Red Sox have 3 needs at the moment. I think a backend starter that's better than Velazquez or Johnson is something the Sox need. I think what Johnson and Velazquez have been amazing as fill-in starters, but I'd hate to press my luck with both going forward. I think with Velazquez and Johnson going every 5th day, the Sox could be in for some rough sledding. A backend starter like a Bartolo Colon shouldn't cost a lot, but the biggest question will be just how much of an upgrade will the pitcher be? And that's a fair question. My hope was that Beeks would come up and show something and he's been knocked around harshly in two outings. Very small sample size, but given his stuff, I don't have a lot of faith that he can be better than replacement level going forward. I lean toward getting a backend starter because if the Sox sustain another injury, then you're down to two of Sale/Price/Porcello, Johnson, Velazquez, and Beeks. I don't know that Wright will be back anytime soon. In a perfect world the Sox can hang onto the division and then Wright and E-Rod are back by Sept 1st and ramping up, pitching effectively like they were never injured, and become options for post-season starts and revive discussions about whether Price should start or reliever in October. That's kind of pie-in-the-sky for me. I think a high leverage reliever is crucial and I've been following the back and forth regarding Soria, and I'll happily take Soria (hope I'm not putting the whammy on him). He would slot in below Kimbrel obviously and perhaps below Barnes, but higher up than everybody else in the pen. I don't trust Joe Kelly. He's mega-streaky as a pitcher and his control is spotty. Hembree is a decent pitcher but he can be an adventure, too. Brasier and Workman are nice middle relief options, but not pitchers I'm convinced (yet) that belong in high leverage situations in October against NY or Houston. Thornburg is another guy that I'd need to see more before I'm ready to say yes, he's back. That TOS he had is a tough one to come all the way back from. I'd love to see Britton (as I believe he'll continue to improve as the rust wears away), but I think EVERYBODY is going to try to deal for him and I think most of those teams are prepared to take on his money, so then it comes down to talent surrendered, and the Sox don't have as much. The one advantage they do have I think is that I believe Duquette likes to do business with familiar counterparts and he and Dombrowski have been friends for years. Still not counting on Britton. I'm no big fan of Familia and I don't think the Sox could or should mortgage their farm system on Hand or Iglesias. And I want no part of Rodney. So Soria is the experienced guy I'm hoping for. And if we're over the luxury tax limit anyways, let's upgrade 2b. While I love Gennett as our 2b, the Sox can't afford the cost. I don't know if Asdrubal Cabrera will be good enough defensively at 2b. I think I can be onboard with Dozier. Holt has a habit of fading in the 2nd half but I don't know if it's overexposure from playing everyday from Farrell or maybe it's mitigated with the way Cora is spotting him, but either way I like Holt coming off the bench anyways. And as far as Moustakas goes, unless Devers is really injured, it makes no sense whatsoever to waste resources on him. If Devers is hurt, then yeah, the Sox probably need to make a move for him. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 16, 2018 20:56:17 GMT -5
I'm also inclined to believe that given the starting pitching situation that a Phillips/Holt platoon at second base should be more than adequate. Philipps is no slouch and he's stayed in playing shape and he costs us nothing. I think that will happen when Devers comes off the DL.
I've got little confidence that we will see either Wright or Pomeranz back in the rotation. We are going to need a starter so that Velazquez can go back to being the long man.
Although we don't have the usual trade chips, we have enough interesting pieces that a non rental like DeGrom or Syndegaard are a non-zero chance creativity proposition, particularly if we are willing to go over the tax bar and add Castillo to the mix as a trade chip and eating big dollars ( or as a keeper and adding JBJ).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 16, 2018 21:30:19 GMT -5
I don't know. I'm probably banking on one of Wright/Pomeranz/Eduardo coming back. Price is a playoff rotation piece now until one or two of these pitchers come back. So he needs to step up or you're poked.
All I know is that the bullpen isn't good enough as currently constituted. Brandon Phillips is also 37 years old. Eduardo Nunez needs to go because he's costing you wins both defensivelyand offensively.
I'd load up on offense in Dozier and get a arm for the bullpen. Plus, unless Matt Harvey is gift wrapped on a silver platter to the Sox from the Reds, you're probably not improving on Velazquez in the rotation. I mean, what are we talking outside of Matt Harvey? Colon? Fister? No thanks.
You can make it through a season scoring enough runs. Plus, your 3 biggest innings eaters are still here in Porcello, Price, and Sale. Put Johnson and Velazquez inbetween them and you should be okay.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 16, 2018 21:59:10 GMT -5
The simple fact is the Sox have a 4.5 game in the division. The Sox also lost their 2nd and 3rd best starters performance wise all season. The Yankees are about to get Torres and Sanchez back from the DL.
You just got to hope the Sox hold water until September. If Eduardo and/or Wright don't make it back and pitch well by that time, you could also be porked. You're not going to be able to trade for a starter that's good enough to replace these guys. These injuries could cost you the division very easily.
The season hinges on if at least one these two can make it back. Pomeranz looks like a lost cause right now, but maybe that changes and miracles happen.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 16, 2018 22:01:47 GMT -5
That's why I'd be willing to make a big splash trade and go for a non rental starter. The Sox and Reds aren't a good match for Harvey who they've apparently fixed. When they traded for him, they weren't making the playoffs and ate a ton of money in the Mets swap. They will be looking for a heavy prospect package. I hate to say it but the Yankees are a better fit there.
I'm actually hoping the Yankees trade their future a bit here. Whoever they receive would have to essentially make a five win difference over the balance of the season or they've wasted resources with no change in their outcome. I don't see a single player that makes that difference over what they currently have.
I also think the Sox pen is good as constituted but would prefer the Sox to lose Hembree but not because I think he's bad, because he has no options and losing him would allow the Sox to rotate some decent PawSox relievers. I'm fairly bullish on Brasier and Thornburg. That would help alleviate the problem of having two rotation guys that aren't likely to go deep into games for a while.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 16, 2018 22:04:53 GMT -5
The Sox have nothing though to make a splash of you want a top of the rotation starter. Maybe you trade Devers for DeGrom or Syndergaard, but that's really stretching things.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 16, 2018 22:26:21 GMT -5
I think Harvey will be among the most popular target among the starters as a rental, and Britton will probably be the most sought after reliever.
Normally you'd think a rental cost wouldn't be so high, but I think the competition for their services will ramp up the costs more than you'd expect and the Sox, unless they're really willing to clean out the system, would have trouble competing with other contenders looking for the upgrade.
I mean, if Houston wants Britton as I read they do, that could be tough for Boston to top their offer.
Likewise, Harvey would be an ideal pickup (read some unflattering things about his attitude though), but contenders will be flocking to the Reds to pick him up.
I'm really interested to see what Dombrowski does.
Most years - you have a team playing this well, you don't sweat it, but this year you have a Yankees team just as good and an Astros team who actually has a better RS/RA ratio (or at least nearly as good - I haven't checked it recently). You have to be an uberteam and try to get every little edge you can, especially when those teams won't be standing still either.
Factor that in that there's nobody in the system who is technically untouchable and that the Sox are not likely to find themselves in a better situation in a couple of years and might not find themselves quite in this position next year.
If there ever was a GFIN year, it IS 2018. How do you do it without stripping out too much? Dombrowski has to be both careful and take risks, which totally contradicts itself. Doing nothing isn't an answer.
He actually has to try to improve upon a team that's on a pace to win 112 games because they've lost their 2nd best starter and they won't be playing some 91 win team in the playoffs, but rather they'll be playing 105 win teams like themselves. This is a very unique year.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 16, 2018 22:38:57 GMT -5
The Sox have nothing though to make a splash of you want a top of the rotation starter. Maybe you trade Devers for DeGrom or Syndergaard, but that's really stretching things. There are several possibilities. That's one of them if you also trade for Moustakis and hold on tight to Chavis. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 16, 2018 22:43:10 GMT -5
The Sox have nothing though to make a splash of you want a top of the rotation starter. Maybe you trade Devers for DeGrom or Syndergaard, but that's really stretching things. There are several possibilities. That's one of them if you also trade for Moustakis and hold on tight to Chavis. That's really the only trade chip you have if you want a top of the rotation starter of that calibre. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 16, 2018 22:58:37 GMT -5
And if you feel you know what he'll do, I'm humbly requesting that you keep that private. Nobody knows. Your guess is not interesting to others.) With all due respect, please leave the moderating to the moderators. This is a discussion forum in which folks should feel free to share their thoughts. Let’s not pretend that any of our analysis is that far removed from being a “guess.” Thanks. I wasn't clear. I meant "knows" literally. Ditto "guess" (as in, I'm guessing the roulette wheel comes up black!) I'm talking about assertions without analysis that say things like "Pomeranz is cooked." Things that are presented as a mere guess. It should be really obvious I'm all for people trying to project from the available evidence to make their best estimate, since that's what I try to do all the time.
Does anyone like those sorts of posts? They almost always result in other posts telling the O.P. their pessimism (it's usually pessimism) is tiresome. And that's in the game threads, where such remarks are actually appropriate!
What would clog this thread badly would be a long back-and-forth over whether an extra starter was absolutely necessary and should be had ASAP, that was based on one or two posters' absolute conviction that this was the case, in the absence of any presented evidence at all. Yes, we've had those.
I apologize for trying to play moderator.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 16, 2018 23:00:43 GMT -5
DeGrom would have 2 1/2 years control remaining. Syndergaard 3 1/2 years.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 16, 2018 23:08:26 GMT -5
With all due respect, please leave the moderating to the moderators. This is a discussion forum in which folks should feel free to share their thoughts. Let’s not pretend that any of our analysis is that far removed from being a “guess.” Thanks. I wasn't clear. I meant "knows" literally. Ditto "guess" (as in, I'm guessing the roulette wheel comes up black!) I'm talking about assertions without analysis that say things like "Pomeranz is cooked." Things that are presented as a mere guess. It should be really obvious I'm all for people trying to project from the available evidence to make their best estimate, since that's what I try to do all the time. Does anyone like those sorts of posts? They almost always result in other posts telling the O.P. their pessimism (it's usually pessimism) is tiresome. And that's in the game threads, where such remarks are actually appropriate! What would clog this thread badly would be a long back-and-forth over whether an extra starter was absolutely necessary and should be had ASAP, that was based on one or two posters' absolute conviction that this was the case, in the absence of any presented evidence at all. Yes, we've had those.
I apologize for trying to play moderator.
And there are those that would ignore the fact that Pomeranz stuff is just plain bad. Reduced velocity and curve command are stats too but do you really need stats when you've seen him pitch ? Give me a list of pitchers that all of a sudden re-found it this late in the season and compare that to the list of pitchers that never did. There are also those that think Wright will be able to learn to pitch with his knee inflamed. You willing to put the season on the line there ? ERod is a total unknown but at minimum, he isn't going to be back anytime soon. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2018 0:26:51 GMT -5
That's why I'd be willing to make a big splash trade and go for a non rental starter. The Sox and Reds aren't a good match for Harvey who they've apparently fixed. When they traded for him, they weren't making the playoffs and ate a ton of money in the Mets swap. They will be looking for a heavy prospect package. I hate to say it but the Yankees are a better fit there. I'm actually hoping the Yankees trade their future a bit here. Whoever they receive would have to essentially make a five win difference over the balance of the season or they've wasted resources with no change in their outcome. I don't see a single player that makes that difference over what they currently have. I also think the Sox pen is good as constituted but would prefer the Sox to lose Hembree but not because I think he's bad, because he has no options and losing him would allow the Sox to rotate some decent PawSox relievers. I'm fairly bullish on Brasier and Thornburg. That would help alleviate the problem of having two rotation guys that aren't likely to go deep into games for a while. Trading for a solid fourth or fifth starter might make a lot of sense. Trading now for a frontline starter seems to me to make none.
We may rag on Price, but if he's your 4th starter in the postseason, that's a very strong rotation. The only way you need an extra quality starter in the postseason is if Wright turns out to be essentially done for the year, E-Rod turns out to be essentially done for the year, and Pomeranz is incapable of even getting to a 4th-starter level (or two of these things happen and Porcello gets hurt. If Sale gets hurt, you're probably screwed no matter what move you make). Right now it seems likelier to me that Price or a solid Pomeranz gets bumped to the pen -- which is to say, we have five playoff-caliber starters out of the five past and one future All-Star-- than we have three.
Just pulling some numbers out of the air, if there's a 50% chance that Pomeranz can get his act together, a 70% chance that E-Rod can pitch in October, and ditto for Wright, the odds against you being stuck with Sale, Porcello, Price, and Johnson as your post-season rotation are 1 in 22. And many teams have actually won a WS with a rotation that good -- the actual quality of 4th starters on WS winners is actually eye opening.
We may have to wait until September for both Wright and E-Rod, but if either one returns to form, there's your post-season rotation, and it's very strong.
The much bigger need may be acquiring a guy a bit better than Velazquez so that he can return to a long-man role while we're down three guys in the rotation -- if Pomeranz is still not an option.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2018 0:47:19 GMT -5
And there are those that would ignore the fact that Pomeranz stuff is just plain bad. Reduced velocity and curve command are stats too but do you really need stats when you've seen him pitch ? Give me a list of pitchers that all of a sudden re-found it this late in the season and compare that to the list of pitchers that never did. There are also those that think Wright will be able to learn to pitch with his knee inflamed. You willing to put the season on the line there ? ERod is a total unknown but at minimum, he isn't going to be back anytime soon. Pomeranz in his great stretch last year vs. his last start this year vs. Houston. 91.6, 91.1 FB velo 11.5, 10.6 FB movement 79.9, 79.5 CU velo 8.5, 9.9 CU movement Being down 0.4 to 0.5 velo doesn't turn you from being dominant to awful. It's all about command, that's all about mechanics, and those can be recovered at any time. I have it as coin toss and I don't see any argument that it's anything but that. No one'a asking Wright to pitch with his knee inflamed. We're hoping that the inflamation goes away if given three months. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2018 1:01:00 GMT -5
The other part I don't get about Eric's post was the part where he's mixing and matching with Dozier and Holt. Dozier has 100 times more power than Holt and Dozier has been twice the hitter holt has been in both their careers. If the Sox get Dozier, he is the man at 2B full time and Holt goes back to the super utility role. I see it as 60 / 40 or 2-1 Dozier. Dozier is the better hitter right now but Holt is the better fielder. There are certainly going to be days when you'd rather see Holt in the lineup, e.g., against a RHP who struggles with LHB. |
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jul 17, 2018 2:18:09 GMT -5
And there are those that would ignore the fact that Pomeranz stuff is just plain bad. Reduced velocity and curve command are stats too but do you really need stats when you've seen him pitch ? Give me a list of pitchers that all of a sudden re-found it this late in the season and compare that to the list of pitchers that never did. There are also those that think Wright will be able to learn to pitch with his knee inflamed. You willing to put the season on the line there ? ERod is a total unknown but at minimum, he isn't going to be back anytime soon. Pomeranz in his great stretch last year vs. his last start this year vs. Houston. 91.6, 91.1 FB velo 11.5, 10.6 FB movement 79.9, 79.5 CU velo 8.5, 9.9 CU movement Being down 0.4 to 0.5 velo doesn't turn you from being dominant to awful. It's all about command, that's all about mechanics, and those can be recovered at any time. I have it as coin toss and I don't see any argument that it's anything but that. No one'a asking Wright to pitch with his knee inflamed. We're hoping that the inflamation goes away if given three months. Look, I hope you're right about everything, but command being off is another sign of injury. With the loss of velocity it makes it even more apparent. He's been on the DL twice with arm issues this year and 4 times the past 3 years at least. I want the real Pomeranz come back though. The Sox need him. He could help save the division because the Yankees are getting healthier and the Sox are losing key pieces in the meantime. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 17, 2018 2:42:54 GMT -5
I hope eric is right as well but watching Pomeranz pitch was painful and he'd need one hell of a turnaround.
2018
Boston xERA 6.75
Pawtucket xERA 8.61
2017 wFB/C .36
2018 wFB/C -.29
2017 wCB/C .61
2018 wCB/C -3.40 That's 3.4 runs above the average curveball per hundred curves weighted.
Also, the learning to pitch with the knee was Wright's quote not mine.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 17, 2018 8:04:34 GMT -5
And there are those that would ignore the fact that Pomeranz stuff is just plain bad. Reduced velocity and curve command are stats too but do you really need stats when you've seen him pitch ? Give me a list of pitchers that all of a sudden re-found it this late in the season and compare that to the list of pitchers that never did. There are also those that think Wright will be able to learn to pitch with his knee inflamed. You willing to put the season on the line there ? ERod is a total unknown but at minimum, he isn't going to be back anytime soon. Pomeranz in his great stretch last year vs. his last start this year vs. Houston. 91.6, 91.1 FB velo 11.5, 10.6 FB movement 79.9, 79.5 CU velo 8.5, 9.9 CU movement Being down 0.4 to 0.5 velo doesn't turn you from being dominant to awful. It's all about command, that's all about mechanics, and those can be recovered at any time. I have it as coin toss and I don't see any argument that it's anything but that. No one'a asking Wright to pitch with his knee inflamed. We're hoping that the inflamation goes away if given three months. Loss of command is also associated with UCL damage, and we already know he doesn't have the world's most pristine elbow. |
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 17, 2018 8:08:50 GMT -5
Rest of season projections, per Fangraphs Depth Charts: Moustakas: .261/.317/.479 Devers: .265/.316/.461 Doesn't make any sense unless the shoulder is a bigger deal than we're thinking for Devers. |
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 17, 2018 8:35:21 GMT -5
I would rather get Iglesias than Dozier. Iglesias can field multiple positions and do it well.
Moustakas doesn't make sense.
I agree getting a back end starter makes sense.
Getting a bullpen pitcher would help but its a lower priority than infielder or a starter.
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