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All-Star Break Gameday Thread
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 16, 2018 14:33:52 GMT -5
7/16 Home Run Derby, 8:00 pm ET, ESPN 7/17 National League (RHP Max Scherzer 12-5, 2.41, 134.2 IP, 182K:34BB) vs. American League (LHP Chris Sale 10-4, 2.23, 129.0 IP, 188K:31BB) 8:00 pm, FOX/WEEI 7/18 Sleep 7/19 Sleep MLB StandingsRed Sox Hitting StatsRed Sox Pitching StatsMLB ScoreboardMLB TransactionsA note regarding moderating of the gameday threads in 2018: As the disclaimer has always said, in the past, we have been very liberal in moderating the Gameday threads. They're meant to be a lot less formal than other threads on the forum, so to moderate them the same way would be silly. However, we do ask posters to maintain a certain level of decorum in these threads, and we plan on moderating the Gameday threads a little more actively this season. In particular, we ask that posters refrain from being overly repetitive with their posts (if you've made your point, let it go), refrain from monopolizing the discussion (if you are making more than a couple posts in a row, you probably need to slow down a little bit), and of course, follow the Ground Rules ( link). The point is to make these threads worth participating in and fun for all posters, from our long-time fixtures to people just signing up today. -The Management
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 16, 2018 15:20:55 GMT -5
Going to the Derby tonight. I've always kicked myself for not trying harder to go in '99. I'll be in the outfield somewheres - we have SRO tix but there are really good places to go that are even better for this kind of event, imo. Keep an eye out for ya boy.
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Post by bluechip on Jul 16, 2018 17:51:16 GMT -5
Going to the Derby tonight. I've always kicked myself for not trying harder to go in '99. I'll be in the outfield somewheres - we have SRO tix but there are really good places to go that are even better for this kind of event, imo. Keep an eye out for ya boy. Bringing a giant net?
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 16, 2018 19:22:08 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Jul 16, 2018 20:09:29 GMT -5
Mookie please be careful shagging balls.
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 16, 2018 20:32:37 GMT -5
Bill Nye the Science Guy calling the home run derby for the moment. Cause why not.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 17, 2018 7:31:29 GMT -5
Amazing.
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,780
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Post by mobaz on Jul 17, 2018 8:00:05 GMT -5
Going to the Derby tonight. I've always kicked myself for not trying harder to go in '99. I'll be in the outfield somewheres - we have SRO tix but there are really good places to go that are even better for this kind of event, imo. Keep an eye out for ya boy. I was there in '99 (both the derby and AS game). The derby was amazing. Prime McGwire 'roid time, majestic shots over the light tower, Griffey, a surprise finalist (Burnitz). Between that and Ted Williams/Pedro the next day for the AS, obviously some of my favorite memories from 13 years of Sox season tickets growing up. What's the report from Nats Field? It was a blast to watch from home; love the format now. A coworker was one row too deep for a Rhys Hopkins shot.
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 17, 2018 8:04:01 GMT -5
MLB nailed the new format for the HRD. It had gotten stale and took too long, but now its a 2.5 hour event with drama in almost every matchup. Bryce Harper's run at the end was insane!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 17, 2018 9:40:24 GMT -5
MLB nailed the new format for the HRD. It had gotten stale and took too long, but now its a 2.5 hour event with drama in almost every matchup. Bryce Harper's run at the end was insane! It's still a little long IMO, but yeah, it's amazing how much of a difference the format change made. Super fun event. Now if MLB would just realize the goldmine it's sitting on with the Futures Game... I don't understand why they think Harold Reynolds blathering on about 18 year olds he's clearly never seen before is a marketable event, but watching good prospects play actual baseball isn't. Also in the category of things I don't understand... Bryce Harper.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 17, 2018 10:12:30 GMT -5
Yeah not trying harder to go to something in '99 (summer before my HS sophomore year, so money wouldn't have been unlimited) is one of my great regrets.
I've been blessed to go to some really great sporting events. ALCS Game 3 in 2003 (the Zimmer/Pedro brawl, thinking a guy had jumped into the bullpen, etc.), FSU winning the National Championship at the Rose Bowl recently (wife's an alum), Celtics playoff games including a 20-point comeback against the Magic (random - I sat next to Gordon Edes, who was there as a fan), the first game in which Cam Neely played against Ulf Samuelsson after his knee injury in which Neely was clearly trying to kill him and got thrown out in the first period. I'd even add things I wasn't technically at like tailgating in the parking lot with a tv hooked up to a generator during the tuck rule game and watching the first Pats Super Bowl win from Chunky's in Pelham. Anyway, last night was potentially the most fun I've had at a sporting event. It's basically a three-hour party, and the way the night played out was fantastic.
Hoskins did a great job warming the crowd up as the first guy up, which helped a ton, I think, with bringing the crowd into it. No Piazza-esque duds helped (the balls being juiced for the event is a good call, let's be honest). The Schwarber-Hoskins semifinal was extremely dramatic. And Harper winning in the end, the way he did (I thought he was done for 90 seconds into the round, and with like 90 seconds left there was no chance he was winning) was stunning.
Honestly, as someone who dabbles with watching wrestling, the parallels were kind of eerie. Hoskins played the part of the hot opening match. The matchup format allows the crowd to pay attention, then take a second to come down, get food/drinks, chat with neighbors, etc. Harper winning in the end was like the babyface making his big comeback to win the title in the main event. I mean, hell, Harper was practically dressed like a wrestler between the cleats, DC bandana (which I need in my life btw), and USA bat.
Also, I'm not sure if they showed this on TV, but Rece Hinds and Bobby Witt Jr. in the Junior Home Run Derby final, which I assume was during a commercial break, was also really fun. I think everyone was skeptical at first (high school kids? really?), but then they came out and hit some bombs and everyone popped big for them. Nice moment.
Speaking of the crowd, best non-playoff, non-Yankees-Sox crowd I've been a part of and easily best DC sports crowd. The 8 pm start helped, as DC crowds are notorious for showing up late (my guess is that is in large part due to what's probably a higher prevalence of white collar, non-9-to-5 jobs), but this gave everyone a chance to get to the park (and surrounding area), get a couple drinks in them, and have fun.
But yeah, great night. Haven't come down yet.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 17, 2018 10:16:36 GMT -5
So the Red Sox are 68-30. We're 60% of the way through the season and they're on a 112-win pace, and I... kind of don't understand how? I guess they're outperforming their pythagorean by 3 games, so luck may be a small part of it, but not that big a factor.
Of course they've got amazing top-line talent. Mookie. JD. Sale. Kimbrel. And some other very good players - Benintendi. Bogaerts. Moreland's been solid. Strong bullpen overall.
But it's not like it's a team without weaknesses. Above all, Pedroia's essentially been out for the season, and replaced with Eduardo Nunez, and if I say he's been below replacement level, that doesn't really capture the magnificence of how awful he's been. And he's gotten the 6th-most plate appearances on the team (more than a hundred more than Holt, incidentally). They've gotten nothing from the catcher position. Bradley's struggled to get above the Mendoza line. Devers has heated up a bit but he's been a below average hitter and made roughly 700 errors. Hanley was so bad they released him. Even some of their best players (Mookie and Xander) have spent time on the DL. Meanwhlie, the starting rotation has been pretty seriously dinged up, with Pomeranz giving us negative value, Wright missing most of the year, and Rodriguez missing some time. Porcello's been fine but not great. Price has been a mild disappointment.
And here they are on pace for one of the greatest seasons of all time.
How?
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Post by taftreign on Jul 17, 2018 11:44:55 GMT -5
I see there's a bit of a small controversy over Harper winning the derby. Apparently there is a rule that the ball has to land before the next pitch is thrown but Harper's dad was rapid firing the pitches before they landed to save time during the the big HR binge. Not that it matters because MLB isn't going to change the result.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2018 12:08:12 GMT -5
I'm not sure what other years look like, but this year the AL has 37 players on the team, 21 of them not finished with their arb years. For the NL, 36 and 23.
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Post by honestlyabe on Jul 17, 2018 12:09:58 GMT -5
I haven't been lurking on the forum as actively this year, so I'm not sure if this has already been posted about, but r/RedSox over on reddit has started putting "Africa" by Toto over video of our grand salamis this year. With 9 at the all-star break, enjoy this grid! streamable.com/hof2x
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2018 12:12:25 GMT -5
I see there's a bit of a small controversy over Harper winning the derby. Apparently there is a rule that the ball has to land before the next pitch is thrown but Harper's dad was rapid firing the pitches before they landed to save time during the the big HR binge. Not that it matters because MLB isn't going to change the result. I noticed that Hoskins was benefiting from this as well.
What I think both pitchers did was throw the next pitch after the ball had cleared the fence on homers. That was definitely what Hoskins' pitcher was doing (I was so wrapped up in Harper's insane streak that I wasn't paying attention to this any longer).
I actually think that's within the spirit of the rule, and in fact the rule should be changed accordingly: you can pitch as soon as the previous ball is no longer in play. Waiting for a 450' homer to land in the stands is just penalizing guys for hitting no-doubt homers rather than cheapies.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 17, 2018 12:14:56 GMT -5
So the Red Sox are 68-30. We're 60% of the way through the season and they're on a 112-win pace, and I... kind of don't understand how? I guess they're outperforming their pythagorean by 3 games, so luck may be a small part of it, but not that big a factor. Of course they've got amazing top-line talent. Mookie. JD. Sale. Kimbrel. And some other very good players - Benintendi. Bogaerts. Moreland's been solid. Strong bullpen overall. But it's not like it's a team without weaknesses. Above all, Pedroia's essentially been out for the season, and replaced with Eduardo Nunez, and if I say he's been below replacement level, that doesn't really capture the magnificence of how awful he's been. And he's gotten the 6th-most plate appearances on the team (more than a hundred more than Holt, incidentally). They've gotten nothing from the catcher position. Bradley's struggled to get above the Mendoza line. Devers has heated up a bit but he's been a below average hitter and made roughly 700 errors. Hanley was so bad they released him. Even some of their best players (Mookie and Xander) have spent time on the DL. Meanwhlie, the starting rotation has been pretty seriously dinged up, with Pomeranz giving us negative value, Wright missing most of the year, and Rodriguez missing some time. Porcello's been fine but not great. Price has been a mild disappointment. And here they are on pace for one of the greatest seasons of all time. How? There are times I wonder the same thing. I look and see 4 spots that are below average offensively: 3b, 2b, CF, and catcher. Yet the Sox are at the top of the league in runs scored. That's a testimony to how amazingly great Betts and JDM have been and how strong a season that Bogaerts, Benintendi, and Moreland are having. The Sox have 3 of the best players in baseball having awesome HOF level seasons in Betts, JDM, and Chris Sale. Also, underappreciated thus far, is how good Craig Kimbrel is at locking down games. There have been many, many leads that could have slipped away and Kimbrel has locked them down. And somehow Barnes, Kelly, Hembree, and whoever Cora mixes and matches has done a great job holding the leads. Barnes has been the most consistent guy but here is where Cora deserves a ton of credit. Somehow, in just about every spot start, if not all of them, Johnson and Velazquez have given the Sox a reasonable to good chance to win. You don't see that often. Normally you see what Jalen Beeks has done. That's normally how it works. That's been minimalized. They've also, with the exception of 2b (Nunez) and some occasional defensive miscues by Devers, have done a great job defensively and haven't beaten themselves. I've watched the Mariners, Rangers, and Jays destroy themselves recently with their own defense. The Sox have minimalized that. I think the Sox will be severely tested in the 2nd half. Porcello and Price have had recent atrocious outings and Sale is the only certainty. It's not reasonable to continue to anticipate that Velazquez and Johnson will step in without skipping a beat. Having those issues at least twice out of every five days will tax the bullpen. If E-Rod and/or Wright can't return healthy it will be difficult for the Sox to win in the post-season unless all 3 of Sale, Price, and Porcello are on top of their games. To help mitigate these things, Dombrowski is going to have to find a way to improve the Red Sox obvious vulnerabilities without giving up too much, but doing nothing is not an option. Devers can hit better. Maybe they skate by with Holt/Phillips. Maybe JBJ hits as he has the past month. Maybe Leon and Swihart continue to hit better. Lots of maybes there, and some of those if not all can continue to happen, but the pen would definitely benefit from a high leverage reliever and it would allow Brasier and Hembree and Workman to work earlier in the game which might be necessary with 2/5 of the rotation down. Pomeranz can't be counted on at this point either. Pitching is the priority for Dombrowski.
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Post by huskies15 on Jul 17, 2018 12:50:55 GMT -5
Cora has been a pleasure as a manager so far. He is personable in interviews and seems to have a good grasp on how the team is feeling as a whole. He is more proactive in managing the bullpen than we have seen in recent years here. Can't question him too much, except probably the Nunez playing time (and hitting him 6th most of the time).
Great first half!
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 17, 2018 13:07:40 GMT -5
Cora has been a pleasure as a manager so far. He is personable in interviews and seems to have a good grasp on how the team is feeling as a whole. He is more proactive in managing the bullpen than we have seen in recent years here. Can't question him too much, except probably the Nunez playing time (and hitting him 6th most of the time). Great first half! Agreed. It's almost like Nunez is his blind spot. It's almost like he's back in Houston remembering the gameplanning for the ALDS. One where Nunez leads off for the Sox and one where he's too injured to play. The Nunez Cora saw last year was mashing the ball. It could have been simply a hot streak, but in his tenure with the Red Sox last season Nunez was crushing the ball. He was a difference maker in the lineup. When he was re-signed cheaply I think a lot of us were happy about it. I think Nunez simply isn't the same player since his problems with his knees. It's like he never really recovered. I didn't think of him as a .320 hitter with power (I think he had 8 homers in 2 months), but rather as a guy in the .280 - .300 range who could hit 15 or even more homers per year. I think Cora sees that guy rather than the broken down hacker who is awful at 2b that we all see now. But all in all, Cora has been wonderful. I think there are going to be times when he'll have to get quicker with the hook, like on days where Kelly can't find the plate or like last week when Porcello had nothing and he waited too long to get him out of there. And he'll have to pinch-hit a little more often, which was something he was passing up earlier in the year. And on occasion he might have to utilize the bunt. I was surprised he didn't do so when Bradley doubled in the tying run with no outs in the last of the 9th against Toronto. I think Roenicke will have to help him out there. But when it comes to handling the team, setting the tone (this is more important than any stats can show!), and seeing details, he's awesome. If he wasn't the manager, he'd be an amazing scout. He just sees so many details. I feel like he always knows what wrong if a player is struggling and how it should be addressed. He's candid in his dealings with the media and blunt on his assessments. I loved the way he's been blunt about Pomeranz's issues. I don't know if Hanley's release was totally Cora's decision, but I do believe that he felt after watching the two play that Moreland was the better player going forward. And I think he's done a great job handling the bullpen. There's not a ton of certainty other than Kimbrel and Barnes, he has no lefty, yet he has mixed and matched beautifully.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 17, 2018 13:16:37 GMT -5
I see there's a bit of a small controversy over Harper winning the derby. Apparently there is a rule that the ball has to land before the next pitch is thrown but Harper's dad was rapid firing the pitches before they landed to save time during the the big HR binge. Not that it matters because MLB isn't going to change the result. I noticed that Hoskins was benefiting from this as well. What I think both pitchers did was throw the next pitch after the ball had cleared the fence on homers. That was definitely what Hoskins' pitcher was doing (I was so wrapped up in Harper's insane streak that I wasn't paying attention to this any longer). I actually think that's within the spirit of the rule, and in fact the rule should be changed accordingly: you can pitch as soon as the previous ball is no longer in play. Waiting for a 450' homer to land in the stands is just penalizing guys for hitting no-doubt homers rather than cheapies.
Grant Brisbee wrote about this nonsense: www.sbnation.com/2018/7/17/17581560/bryce-harper-2018-home-run-derby-dad-cheat-am-i-the-only-one-who-gives-a-damn-about-the-rulesThere was an umpire behind the plate giving the pitcher the go sign.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 17, 2018 13:30:49 GMT -5
Also, too: Imagine being upset about that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2018 14:07:04 GMT -5
So the Red Sox are 68-30. We're 60% of the way through the season and they're on a 112-win pace, and I... kind of don't understand how? I guess they're outperforming their pythagorean by 3 games, so luck may be a small part of it, but not that big a factor. Of course they've got amazing top-line talent. Mookie. JD. Sale. Kimbrel. And some other very good players - Benintendi. Bogaerts. Moreland's been solid. Strong bullpen overall. But it's not like it's a team without weaknesses. Above all, Pedroia's essentially been out for the season, and replaced with Eduardo Nunez, and if I say he's been below replacement level, that doesn't really capture the magnificence of how awful he's been. And he's gotten the 6th-most plate appearances on the team (more than a hundred more than Holt, incidentally). They've gotten nothing from the catcher position. Bradley's struggled to get above the Mendoza line. Devers has heated up a bit but he's been a below average hitter and made roughly 700 errors. Hanley was so bad they released him. Even some of their best players (Mookie and Xander) have spent time on the DL. Meanwhlie, the starting rotation has been pretty seriously dinged up, with Pomeranz giving us negative value, Wright missing most of the year, and Rodriguez missing some time. Porcello's been fine but not great. Price has been a mild disappointment. And here they are on pace for one of the greatest seasons of all time. How? Well, Betts, Benintendi, and Martinez rank 1st, 3rd, and 4th in MLB in WPA and are on a pace to total 18.03 (that adds 0.46 to Mookie to adjust for the 14 games he was on the DL). That's wins above average. Replace those guys with average hitters, and it's a 94-win team. Yes, Benintendi has been insane in the clutch (and that may not be predictive, but we're determining why we're on a 112 win pace).
To put that 18 wins in perspective, the best teammate trio last year was the Astros: Altvue, Gonzalez, Springer. They had 9.58.
What else do we have offensively? Xander's +2.33, which is 16th in all of MLB. That's insane for your fourth most valuable hitter. The only other teams with 2 players in the top 20 are the Snakes (Goldschmidt 9th and Descalso 10th) and the Mariners (Segura 13th and Haniger 18th). Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with 2.12.
We have good production from 1B, but CF, C, 3B, and 2B are struggling to stay above replacement level. In fact, the rest of the offense after the Big Four are on a pace for -8.69 wins.
The rotation (plus defense) other than Chris Sale, as you might guess, has been good but not great, projecting to be +2.66 wins, or 0.67 per rotation slot. Sale, however, is on a pace for 5.29 all by his lonesome.
Kimbrel's on a pace for 5.47 wins. As a measure of talent, of course, that's inflated by leverage (from 3.54), but that's still real in terms of the 112.4 win pace (113 when adjusting for Mookie's injury).
This doesn't quite add up.
+7.49 Mookie (wins above average, dudes. Not WAR.)
+5.47 Kimbrel +5.42 Benintendi
+5.29 Sale +5.12 Martinez +2.66 other starters +2.33 Bogaerts
-8.69 other hitters
That's +25, or 106 wins.
Oh, I forgot one!
+7.49 Mookie +6.78 Other relievers
+5.47 Kimbrel +5.42 Benintendi +5.29 Sale +5.12 Martinez +2.66 Other starters +2.33 Bogaerts
-8.69 Other hitters
There's your 112.9 wins. Obviously we need to improve the +6.78 before the trade deadline.
Oh, and when adjusted for leverage, to represent the talent, the other bullpen arms are 4.19. The 7 guys in the mix now (Kelly, Barnes, Workman, Velazquez, Hembree, Brasier, and Thornburg) total 4.55 and have thrown 184 innings; the others total -0.36 in 100 innings. The former figure averages out as 0.65 per man (even though Thornburg and Brasier have very partial seasons). The average non-Kimbrel reliever has been as valuable as the average non-Sale starter (factoring in clutch, of course, but not leverage).
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 17, 2018 14:30:40 GMT -5
That seems like an enviable position in some respects. I imagine that it's easier to improve a roster with 8 quarters and 1 penny than it is to improve one with 9 dimes.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 17, 2018 15:27:35 GMT -5
There's a reasonable scenario that even if other things step back, Price and Porcello can pitch closer to potential and make up for other declines. Also reasonable to see Devers and Bradley reverting to average hitters.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 17, 2018 16:10:30 GMT -5
That seems like an enviable position in some respects. I imagine that it's easier to improve a roster with 8 quarters and 1 penny than it is to improve one with 9 dimes. It's usually crazy to get an entire 1 win upgrade with a deadline deal, let alone without adding a star, but if Dozier versus Nunez isn't that, it rounds up to it.
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