Baseball America Top 30

Can't believe we gave Oakland Head.

Some scattershot thoughts:

-I'm glad to see Jacobs so high at 13. Ever since I saw him take BP in 2010, he's been one of my binkies. He has awesome power potential and still has less experience with baseball than most prospects do at his age. The hamate injury really hurt his offense last year, but he'll be healthy going into 2013 and if he can improve his plate discipline, he could develop into a very good power hitter. The big knock against him is his defense, which is decidedly sub-par to date, but I have high hopes for him even on that front. His major deficiencies are in instincts and reading fly balls, but that can easily improve as he gets experience. He moves surprisingly quickly for a man of his size, and I think he could develop very good range if he keeps his weight in check. The fact that the Red Sox had him play more than a few games in center field last year is extremely telling from my POV-- I think with continued development with his routes, he might improve to an average-to-above-average defensive corner outfielder.

-Lin over Vinicio is somewhat of a surprise, and it looks like they're pretty bullish on Lin. I'm not sure if any of the scouts at SP.com have gotten a look at Lin yet, and I'm looking forward to getting some first-hand reports on him.

-Also glad to see Ranaudo hasn't totally dropped off the map. There were some really negative scouting reports on him floating around last season, but prospects undergo "lost seasons" all the time and he's young enough to bounce back (will be 23 at AA, which is still a little ahead of the age advancement curve).

-Some of the other major differences between BA's list and SoxProspects' list that I noticed: de la Cruz (SP 18/BA 25), Vazquez (SP 28/BA 19), and Pena (SP39/BA 30).

Lin got the same signing bonus as Marrero, so that gives some indication how the Red Sox value him. I agree with you, very much looking forward to some first hand reports. He's almost certain to be placed in Lowell unless he has a phenomenal camp, so I (and a lot of the posters here) should be able to get a chance to see him.

Yeah, but Lin was the last IFA before the new CBA's limits on spending, so I didn't think the amount he got paid really reflected market realities but was just one last splurge. That said, it'll be really interesting to see how the shortstop depth chart starts shaking out over the next year.

Not picking on you in the least, just trying to illistrate a point when it comes to prospect rankings. Are these really "major differences"? Think about when you are making your lists how interchangible these groupings are. 9 Spots would be a big different in the top 15, but in the 30's it's just a matter of preference. Same can even be said for the Vazquez and Cruz rankings. If these lists didn't have a bunch of variances this big then it wouldn't be original material.

An argument can be made that Cecchini is better than Swihart, but I don't think it's plausible that either Cecchini or Middlebrooks will ever hit enough to be particularly valuable at 1b.

One of the great things about following these kids......is you just know several of them (each year) are going to "bust" out. Of the prospects mentioned above, these are the ones I believe will take off in 2013 and therefore jump our rankings:

6. Blake Swihart, c
15. Brian Johnson, lhp
20. Manuel Margot, of
26. Ty Buttrey, rhp
27. Cody Kukuk, lhp

Our system, in my estimation, will be one of the top 6 or 7 by the end of September. These 5 prospects are my 5 "risers"!

This is a great idea ..... we need a thread where everyone picks their top 3 or 4 "risers" or "sleepers" and where they will end up ranked in Sept. or after the season.

Where do you see Swihart rising with no one graduating, except De La Rosa, and with the no.7 pick coming?
I do like Kukuk rising into the top 15.

One thing that BA implicitly does is rank by "tiers." They give each prospect a grade with a number and "risk factor," for example, Bogaerts is a 70 medium. This is a 70 overall grade (perennial all-star) and medium risk factor (still some work to do to turn tools into MLB-caliber).

When ranking players, these grades wind up leading to "tiers," in which each player within a tier will be ranked before the next, as follows:

75 High/70 Medium/65 Low, then 70 High/65 Medium/60 Low, and so forth.

I don't have time or inclination to list each grade, but here are the tiers within the system, per BA, if you view the rankings as described above:

Bogaerts
---------
Bradley/Barnes/Webster
Owens
Swihart/Cecchini/Brentz/Iglesias/Marrero/Britton/Workman
EVERYONE ELSE IN THE TOP 30, AT LEAST

Takeaways from this, for me:
1) I think BA has Swihart, Cecchini, and maybe Brentz below where I'd put them. I think they belong in Owens' strata.
2) To me, the fact that the 55 Extreme/50 High/45 Medium/40 Low group rounds out the top 30 and perhaps beyond speaks volumes about this system's depth (and note that although they lost Stolmy, Brock Holt was ranked 45 medium and would have ranked in the top 30). The Cubs, Mariners, and Rangers are the only other teams that fleshed out the list without going to the 50E/45H/40M/35L tier.

I think we as a whole underrate him. Remember that he's coming off an injury that slowed him down. He's still above average defensively and offensively with not much power at a premium position. In my admittedly amateur eye I picture JJ Hardy with less offense and more defense. He has a very good chance at being at least a major league starter somewhere.