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8/24-8/26 Red Sox @ Rays Series Thread
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 27, 2018 10:12:17 GMT -5
74 mph, 85 mph, 88 mph are the hit balls in this inning. And of course 2 of them reach base. if and when baseball becomes a sport that grades on effort and impact and velocities and such, it will matter. right now, all that matters is who scores more. It does not matter how the runs are scored. I know this data fascinates you - maybe others here as well. It is utterly meaningless to me. Not that you should care, of course. That's just me. On the other hand I have been too busy to watch so reading this gives me a better perspective on how the game is going. The exit velos mean the pitcher isn't pitching that poorly and the slap hits are getting thru. I am sure Cora sees the same thing, his pitcher isn't pitching badly but the results suck.
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Post by manfred on Aug 27, 2018 10:32:12 GMT -5
if and when baseball becomes a sport that grades on effort and impact and velocities and such, it will matter. right now, all that matters is who scores more. It does not matter how the runs are scored. I know this data fascinates you - maybe others here as well. It is utterly meaningless to me. Not that you should care, of course. That's just me. On the other hand I have been too busy to watch so reading this gives me a better perspective on how the game is going. The exit velos mean the pitcher isn't pitching that poorly and the slap hits are getting thru. I am sure Cora sees the same thing, his pitcher isn't pitching badly but the results suck. Well, this might be generally true, but in the tradition of “hit ‘em where they ain’t,” a guy giving up sprayed hits isn’t pitching great. Guy who hits a 75-mph single every 3 abs is a .333 hitter. I’ll take it! Edit: indeed in the era of shifting, the lost art of the slap single would be welcome in its resurgence. I’d love to see guys dink a few oppo to break the shift.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2018 10:49:38 GMT -5
It obviously sucks losing this series, but the way we've done it isn't too concerning to me. Lot of bad BABIP luck isn't anything to stress about, the team can't really control that. Velazaquez gave up some hard hit balls but he's not going to be on the team in the postseason. The offense is slumping, having some poor sequencing and bad BABIP luck, they've been the best offense in baseball all year I trust that sample over a few games in Tampa,. Folks should indeed step off the edge of the bridge.
Eovaldi reduced his xwOBA on the season yesterday from .310 to .302, which means his xwOBA for the day was .171 +/- .017. It was basically a return to the form of his first two starts.
Game xwOBA's for everyone who pitched yesterday, with ranges (derived from the online figures being rounded to 3 decimal places).for relievers.
.011 (-.057 - .079) Kimbrel (actually .000, of course)
.171 (.154 - .188) Eovalidi .191 (.153 - .228) Hembree .349 (.310 - .388) Barnes .374 (.317 - .432) Kelly
You can see that we can't even tell for certain that Barnes and Kelly were below average. Reliever figures will have lower error ranges after multiple outings, of course.
And I just made an alteration to my spreadsheet that allows me to instantly calculate the xwOBA's between any two dates. Looks like I have to create one for the hitters, too!
Geeze, am I going to have to grab this data after every game for the rest of my life? (Web query doesn't work.)
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 27, 2018 10:58:04 GMT -5
On the other hand I have been too busy to watch so reading this gives me a better perspective on how the game is going. The exit velos mean the pitcher isn't pitching that poorly and the slap hits are getting thru. I am sure Cora sees the same thing, his pitcher isn't pitching badly but the results suck. Well, this might be generally true, but in the tradition of “hit ‘em where they ain’t,” a guy giving up sprayed hits isn’t pitching great. Guy who hits a 75-mph single every 3 abs is a .333 hitter. I’ll take it! Edit: indeed in the era of shifting, the lost art of the slap single would be welcome in its resurgence. I’d love to see guys dink a few oppo to break the shift. What you're missing is that this guy does not exist. No one can consistently hit 75 mph singles, and no defense will consistently give up 75 mph singles. That's why Eovaldi's start shouldn't be a concern.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2018 11:04:04 GMT -5
Yep, it's pretty good! One of the 3 or 5 or 6 best in the majors, depending on how you choose to measure it. I'm not sure that passes the eye test. It doesn't pass the eye test BECAUSE YOU ARE NOT WATCHING ALL THE GAMES OF EVERY OTHER TEAM.
In fact, you're basically watching none of them, correct?
The Sox have had the 3rd most effective bullpen in MLB, according to Win Probability Added, and that's really what people are bitching about, correct?
People are not bitching about how the relievers look worse than the results they are getting, e.g., "wow, Barnes is doing it with smoke and mirrors". They are bitching about the actual on-the-field-results.
Which have been, repeat, the 3rd best in MLB. Period.
I wouldn't mind as much if this were a counter-intuitive result because the team hadn't been that great.
Seriously. The team is historically great, the bullpen has been MLB's 3rd most effective at changing the odds of winning the game (until this slump they were 2nd), and yet you can't figure out that your sense that the bullpen is instead problematical has to be the product of selection bias, which is to say, you notice every subpar outing but none of the good ones, which are the vast majority?
It's beyond tiresome.
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Post by manfred on Aug 27, 2018 11:13:25 GMT -5
Well, this might be generally true, but in the tradition of “hit ‘em where they ain’t,” a guy giving up sprayed hits isn’t pitching great. Guy who hits a 75-mph single every 3 abs is a .333 hitter. I’ll take it! Edit: indeed in the era of shifting, the lost art of the slap single would be welcome in its resurgence. I’d love to see guys dink a few oppo to break the shift. What you're missing is that this guy does not exist. No one can consistently hit 75 mph singles, and no defense will consistently give up 75 mph singles. That's why Eovaldi's start shouldn't be a concern. I was not being literal. But a guy like Ichiro, who slapped down and hit tons of singles instead of hitting for power.... that is what I was getting at. What I was really getting at is that exit velocity is not especially meaningful except in the most extreme instances (like a guy getting absolutely bombed).
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 27, 2018 11:23:45 GMT -5
What you're missing is that this guy does not exist. No one can consistently hit 75 mph singles, and no defense will consistently give up 75 mph singles. That's why Eovaldi's start shouldn't be a concern. I was not being literal. But a guy like Ichiro, who slapped down and hit tons of singles instead of hitting for power.... that is what I was getting at. What I was really getting at is that exit velocity is not especially meaningful except in the most extreme instances (like a guy getting absolutely bombed). Ichiro hit the ball very hard just at a low launch angle. My point is the guy you are searching for is mythical. Exit velocity is meaningful because higher exit velocity means more hits that go farther. EDIT: Not to say there aren't great hitters without elite exit velocities. Just that all else being equal, higher is better.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 27, 2018 11:26:14 GMT -5
What you're missing is that this guy does not exist. No one can consistently hit 75 mph singles, and no defense will consistently give up 75 mph singles. That's why Eovaldi's start shouldn't be a concern. I was not being literal. But a guy like Ichiro, who slapped down and hit tons of singles instead of hitting for power.... that is what I was getting at. What I was really getting at is that exit velocity is not especially meaningful except in the most extreme instances (like a guy getting absolutely bombed). For hitters it is more complicated, because bat control is real. Some players hit in specific lanes that make setting defenses easier. Others can use the whole field, intentionally, as a skill. That's not really applicable to pitchers, though. If you're generating soft contact you will succeed. I'm concerned about Eovaldi because he's had several stretches in his career when he's underperformed his peripherals, which have been consistently outstanding. He's the type of pitcher who I'd love on like a two or three year deal, because I think his value evens out, but not someone I loved as a rental because he just seems to go haywire sometimes. I just don't love the idea of a pitcher who has had high error bars as a rental. Also, the career-high swinging strike rate he had in Tampa hasn't carried over. Basically, all of the concerns I had when they traded for him still exist a month later.
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Post by 07redsox on Aug 27, 2018 11:29:42 GMT -5
What you're missing is that this guy does not exist. No one can consistently hit 75 mph singles, and no defense will consistently give up 75 mph singles. That's why Eovaldi's start shouldn't be a concern. I was not being literal. But a guy like Ichiro, who slapped down and hit tons of singles instead of hitting for power.... that is what I was getting at. What I was really getting at is that exit velocity is not especially meaningful except in the most extreme instances (like a guy getting absolutely bombed). I have no idea where one could get this data, but I would bet my left arm that Ichiro averaged A LOT higher than 75 MPH for his hits. Just because someone hits a single or is considered a singles hitter does not mean they are not hitting the ball hard. Exit velocity is going to tell you a lot in terms of how the ball is it and, in turn, how likely the ball should actually be a hit. Someone like Ichiro, who becomes what they were through base hits, is not going to be hitting the ball without authority. If they are, then they are never going to amount to much of anything.
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Post by manfred on Aug 27, 2018 11:31:01 GMT -5
I was not being literal. But a guy like Ichiro, who slapped down and hit tons of singles instead of hitting for power.... that is what I was getting at. What I was really getting at is that exit velocity is not especially meaningful except in the most extreme instances (like a guy getting absolutely bombed). For hitters it is more complicated, because bat control is real. Some players hit in specific lanes that make setting defenses easier. Others can use the whole field, intentionally, as a skill. That's not really applicable to pitchers, though. If you're generating soft contact you will succeed. I'm concerned about Eovaldi because he's had several stretches in his career when he's underperformed his peripherals, which have been consistently outstanding. He's the type of pitcher who I'd love on like a two or three year deal, because I think his value evens out, but not someone I loved as a rental because he just seems to go haywire sometimes. I just don't love the idea of a pitcher who has had high error bars as a rental. Also, the career-high swinging strike rate he had in Tampa hasn't carried over. Basically, all of the concerns I had when they traded for him still exist a month later. This is all true. I think I feel the same way about Eovaldi. He reminds me of guys like Garza or Archer or Ervin Santana: always less productive than his talent. I remember when he was with the Yankees feeling like it was a good day if the Sox were facing him. I don’t mean to impugn Eovaldi, but I think in nany cases we see that pitching is often about intellect and guts. A guy like Pedro had great natural ability, but it was magnified exponentially by his knowledge and his guts.
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Post by manfred on Aug 27, 2018 11:41:16 GMT -5
I was not being literal. But a guy like Ichiro, who slapped down and hit tons of singles instead of hitting for power.... that is what I was getting at. What I was really getting at is that exit velocity is not especially meaningful except in the most extreme instances (like a guy getting absolutely bombed). I have no idea where one could get this data, but I would bet my left arm that Ichiro averaged A LOT higher than 75 MPH for his hits. Just because someone hits a single or is considered a singles hitter does not mean they are not hitting the ball hard. Exit velocity is going to tell you a lot in terms of how the ball is it and, in turn, how likely the ball should actually be a hit. Someone like Ichiro, who becomes what they were through base hits, is not going to be hitting the ball without authority. If they are, then they are never going to amount to much of anything. Ugh. Fine. Call it 91-mph groundballs. I don’t care. Hyperbole is lost.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 27, 2018 11:47:37 GMT -5
I think he's better than those guys: I compared him a lot to Javier Vazquez at one point, where he's legitimately good and the career production shows that when you look at the whole. But the stretches of confounding ineffectiveness were/are real and are why I don't love him as a rental. With, of course, the flipside being the upside is that he has one of his stretches where he's brilliant and he's basically the #2 starter on a World Series-winning team.
If they signed him to like 3/$45M after the season though, as the Pomeranz replacement? Yeah, I'm down for that. He just made me queasy as a rental specifically.
EDIT: I don't really want to go down a road of "how much does it make sense to pay Eovaldi given payroll constraints, they should re-sign Kimbrel instead," etc., etc. - it was more a broad point that I think he's good and he's the type of player who I'm comfortable will be worth good money over time but not comfortable depending on his production in the short term.
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Post by manfred on Aug 27, 2018 12:06:04 GMT -5
I think he's better than those guys: I compared him a lot to Javier Vazquez at one point, where he's legitimately good and the career production shows that when you look at the whole. But the stretches of confounding ineffectiveness were/are real and are why I don't love him as a rental. With, of course, the flipside being the upside is that he has one of his stretches where he's brilliant and he's basically the #2 starter on a World Series-winning team. If they signed him to like 3/$45M after the season though, as the Pomeranz replacement? Yeah, I'm down for that. He just made me queasy as a rental specifically. EDIT: I don't really want to go down a road of "how much does it make sense to pay Eovaldi given payroll constraints, they should re-sign Kimbrel instead," etc., etc. - it was more a broad point that I think he's good and he's the type of player who I'm comfortable will be worth good money over time but not comfortable depending on his production in the short term. Vasquez is a great comp. Frustrating if you focus on the dream upside, but valuable over a longer haul. My only real concern about Eovaldi is health. Pavano is another guy I think of (they kinda look alike, too).
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 27, 2018 12:42:09 GMT -5
What you're missing is that this guy does not exist. No one can consistently hit 75 mph singles, and no defense will consistently give up 75 mph singles. That's why Eovaldi's start shouldn't be a concern. I was not being literal. But a guy like Ichiro, who slapped down and hit tons of singles instead of hitting for power.... that is what I was getting at. What I was really getting at is that exit velocity is not especially meaningful except in the most extreme instances (like a guy getting absolutely bombed). Not meaningful? So if a team is hitting pitches really hard consistently vs hitting them weakly it doesn't matter? Obviously the results are what matter but I am sure the pitchers would prefer not getting what they throw crushed. And I am sure that the hitters would prefer to hit balls hard rather than weakly. What do you think will lead to more runs in the long run?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 27, 2018 12:49:50 GMT -5
I was not being literal. But a guy like Ichiro, who slapped down and hit tons of singles instead of hitting for power.... that is what I was getting at. What I was really getting at is that exit velocity is not especially meaningful except in the most extreme instances (like a guy getting absolutely bombed). For hitters it is more complicated, because bat control is real. Some players hit in specific lanes that make setting defenses easier. Others can use the whole field, intentionally, as a skill. That's not really applicable to pitchers, though. If you're generating soft contact you will succeed. I'm concerned about Eovaldi because he's had several stretches in his career when he's underperformed his peripherals, which have been consistently outstanding. He's the type of pitcher who I'd love on like a two or three year deal, because I think his value evens out, but not someone I loved as a rental because he just seems to go haywire sometimes. I just don't love the idea of a pitcher who has had high error bars as a rental. Also, the career-high swinging strike rate he had in Tampa hasn't carried over. Basically, all of the concerns I had when they traded for him still exist a month later. The thing that concerns me about Eovaldi is that he's not missing a ton of bats. He is like Joe Kelly in that regard. With Kelly's stuff you'd expect more strikeouts than he generates. Kind of similar with Eovaldi. And when you don't get as many Ks then you are going to be subjected to the whims of BABIP more often. I'm not prepared to see he pitched great yesterday - all of which is a moot point because they didn't hit yesterday anyways and for the 3rd straight day they didn't put up much in the way of runs on the scoreboard. Eovaldi was excellent the first two times out. He didn't strike out a ton of guys though, and the last four times out he's been ineffective. You can say he was unlucky yesterday but now it's 35 hits allowed in the past 17 innings, which is a lot and a bit more than luck. Hopefully he'll start pitching better soon. Everything has been dropping in against him so you'd think that would average out somewhat but without bigger strikeout numbers he'll have this happen to him. A few well placed strikeouts could have quelled some of those rallies against him, but when he was getting to two strikes they were making contact off of him more than you'd hope they would.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 27, 2018 14:36:55 GMT -5
Eovaldi pitched great yesterday with horrible results. If we can't discuss anything but results, that would be pretty f'ing boring. Yay, this guy had a good result, boo that guy had a bad result. That's it.
To those people who do not believe in anything but results- what exactly is the strategy for getting 75-85 mph hits? What exactly makes you think that this strategy is even in use or that it could ever be effective?
What exactly is the strategy for getting hard hit outs while pitching? What makes you think this strategy is in use or that it could ever be effective?
If you don't have answers (I really hope no one does), then the strategy for getting more hits (with more extra base hits as well) is to hit the ball harder (and in the air). The strategy for giving up fewer hits is to give up weaker contact on the ground.
Eovaldi succeeded yesterday in that strategy. His .183 xwOBA is evidence of that. His .386 actual wOBA is evidence that he was ridiculously unlucky. And if you don't believe that, please tell me why scientifically.
In addition, he walked 0 and struck out 23.8%. He also had a 34.6 whiff rate which was one of the best of his career. 56.3% of balls in play were ground balls. Tampa had a .500 BABIP for the day. Only 25% of the runners that Eovaldi allowed on base DIDN'T score.
That game was absolutely nothing like the ones he pitched against Cleveland or Baltimore.
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Post by huskies15 on Aug 27, 2018 15:16:12 GMT -5
I'm more concerned with the offense than the pitching. The power is lacking. Hopefully a healthy Devers, Benny, Moreland, etc. can find the power stroke to help out Betts and JDM when they go through these weeks where they don't hit any.
That series was ugly on offense.
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Post by manfred on Aug 27, 2018 15:55:05 GMT -5
Eovaldi pitched great yesterday with horrible results. If we can't discuss anything but results, that would be pretty f'ing boring. Yay, this guy had a good result, boo that guy had a bad result. That's it. To those people who do not believe in anything but results- what exactly is the strategy for getting 75-85 mph hits? What exactly makes you think that this strategy is even in use or that it could ever be effective? What exactly is the strategy for getting hard hit outs while pitching? What makes you think this strategy is in use or that it could ever be effective? If you don't have answers (I really hope no one does), then the strategy for getting more hits (with more extra base hits as well) is to hit the ball harder (and in the air). The strategy for giving up fewer hits is to give up weaker contact on the ground. Eovaldi succeeded yesterday in that strategy. His .183 xwOBA is evidence of that. His .386 actual wOBA is evidence that he was ridiculously unlucky. And if you don't believe that, please tell me why scientifically. In addition, he walked 0 and struck out 23.8%. He also had a 34.6 whiff rate which was one of the best of his career. 56.3% of balls in play were ground balls. Tampa had a .500 BABIP for the day. Only 25% of the runners that Eovaldi allowed on base DIDN'T score. That game was absolutely nothing like the ones he pitched against Cleveland or Baltimore. My strategy for getting soft hits? Bunt when they shift.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 27, 2018 16:06:04 GMT -5
Eovaldi pitched great yesterday with horrible results. If we can't discuss anything but results, that would be pretty f'ing boring. Yay, this guy had a good result, boo that guy had a bad result. That's it. To those people who do not believe in anything but results- what exactly is the strategy for getting 75-85 mph hits? What exactly makes you think that this strategy is even in use or that it could ever be effective? What exactly is the strategy for getting hard hit outs while pitching? What makes you think this strategy is in use or that it could ever be effective? If you don't have answers (I really hope no one does), then the strategy for getting more hits (with more extra base hits as well) is to hit the ball harder (and in the air). The strategy for giving up fewer hits is to give up weaker contact on the ground. Eovaldi succeeded yesterday in that strategy. His .183 xwOBA is evidence of that. His .386 actual wOBA is evidence that he was ridiculously unlucky. And if you don't believe that, please tell me why scientifically. In addition, he walked 0 and struck out 23.8%. He also had a 34.6 whiff rate which was one of the best of his career. 56.3% of balls in play were ground balls. Tampa had a .500 BABIP for the day. Only 25% of the runners that Eovaldi allowed on base DIDN'T score. That game was absolutely nothing like the ones he pitched against Cleveland or Baltimore. My strategy for getting soft hits? Bunt when they shift. That's not what anyone was doing yesterday so that does not apply.
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Post by manfred on Aug 27, 2018 16:33:04 GMT -5
My strategy for getting soft hits? Bunt when they shift. That's not what anyone was doing yesterday so that does not apply. That wasn’t the question. It was: what is the strategy? And I have no problem asking what happened on Earth-2, but I think outcomes are actually what makes sports interesting. Otherwise, we’d be talking about Mike Tyson’s easy win over Buster Douglas, since by all calculations that’s what should have happened. Sometimes (often) the team hitting dribblers pulls it out. Joey Gallo hits the ball harder on average than Mookie or JDM. To do that, he’s got to miss. A lot.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 27, 2018 17:18:15 GMT -5
That's not what anyone was doing yesterday so that does not apply. That wasn’t the question. It was: what is the strategy? And I have no problem asking what happened on Earth-2, but I think outcomes are actually what makes sports interesting. Otherwise, we’d be talking about Mike Tyson’s easy win over Buster Douglas, since by all calculations that’s what should have happened. Sometimes (often) the team hitting dribblers pulls it out. Joey Gallo hits the ball harder on average than Mookie or JDM. To do that, he’s got to miss. A lot. I asked what the strategy is for players getting hits with 75-85 mph ground balls. That isn't bunting. I agree that the wide variation of events makes baseball especially better. But what we're doing is discussing if a player is playing well or poorly. And that is not determined by the results, but by how well they execute their strategy of being a better player, which is clearly hitting the ball hard in the air as a batter or giving up soft contact as a pitcher. There is no strategy for getting bloop hits or giving up line drive outs.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 27, 2018 18:34:24 GMT -5
On the other hand I have been too busy to watch so reading this gives me a better perspective on how the game is going. The exit velos mean the pitcher isn't pitching that poorly and the slap hits are getting thru. I am sure Cora sees the same thing, his pitcher isn't pitching badly but the results suck. Well, this might be generally true, but in the tradition of “hit ‘em where they ain’t,” a guy giving up sprayed hits isn’t pitching great. Guy who hits a 75-mph single every 3 abs is a .333 hitter. I’ll take it! Edit: indeed in the era of shifting, the lost art of the slap single would be welcome in its resurgence. I’d love to see guys dink a few oppo to break the shift. It's rare that you see a hitter hit the ball to a specific place, on purpose.
I think that hitting hard grounders up the middle is a little bit of a batter's skill. I think that if we could measure that accurately, we'd see that there were guys who did it 10% more often than average, consistently, and guys who did it 10% less often.
I am, however, very dubious that preventing or giving up those hits is a skill for pitchers, separate from their skill at preventing hard-hit grounders in general.
Once in a while you do see great hitters take a difficult pitch and intentionally hit it "where they ain't." E.g., take an outside pitch and loop it into RF, maybe even down the line for a double. However, giving up those hits is obviously not something any pitcher is prone to, and if you want to assess how well a guy pitched, counting it as bad BABIP luck because of its unimpressive exit velocity is legit. In the future we should be able to classify that as opponent skill instead, but it's still good pitching either way.
Doing this is definitely a skill that some hitters have, and those guys will outperform their xwOBA. However, those guys are rare, and those PA are rare for them. I don't believe we could identify them just by looking for guys who outperform their xwOBA several years in a row. It has to come from adding horizontal launch angle (batted ball direction) into the whole Statcast analysis, in a proper way, including shifting and other defensive aspects. That's a huge challenge.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Aug 27, 2018 21:16:19 GMT -5
Da Yankees lose!! I’m sleeping easier tonigt
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Post by danredhawk on Aug 27, 2018 21:16:28 GMT -5
Yanks lose and the magic number for a division title is 25. Should we start a countdown ya nervous nellies...?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 27, 2018 21:19:24 GMT -5
Thank you ChiSox.
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