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8/30-9/2 Red Sox @ White Sox Series Thread
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2018 1:28:23 GMT -5
Except the bullpen has been pretty good all things considered. But other than that you're right. Yeah, that sounds nice. But if you tell me you actually have faith in any of our set up men besides Brasier, I literally won't believe you. And to just think it's fine for a historically great team to go into a postseason with that kind of achilles, and not to make an effort to fix it, I just find astounding. The top four bullpens in baseball this year by Win Probability Added, the ultimate and completely accurate assessment of a team's performance with a relief pitcher on the mound, in terms of impact on winning each and every game:
Oakland Chicago Cubs Boston New York Yankees
bWAR take runs allowed by the bullpen and adjusts for ballparks, opposing lineups, and team defense. They have the 5 best pens as:
Philadelphia (historically bad defense)
Boston Chicago Cubs Oakland New York Yankees
The Red Sox bullpen has been very clutch, and a lot of that is Cora's management, but you could make an argument that if you took the luck out their bullpen performance, they'd rank just 5th in WPA.
Given that there are 10 playoff teams, It's unclear to me how a team element that's at worst average for a contender and is quite likely above average is an Achilles heel.
I know, I know, I know, I know, I know. I shouldn't let the facts get in the way of your subjective responses.
Oh, BTW, Zach Britton has now made 15 appearances with the Yankees and has a 4.70 ERA and -0.47 WPA. He gave up the go-ahead run to the Tigers tonight in the 8th and was rescued by the offense.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2018 6:28:32 GMT -5
AL records since mid-June (starting the 16th):
47-20 Oakland 46-20 Boston 41-26 Cleveland 41-29 New York 37-28 Houston
Right now, I'd much rather play the Yankees in the ALCS than the A's.
Actually, I was forgetting that Manaea was hurt and didn't realize he might be out for the season, and was unaware that Anderson had just joined him on the DL. Their rotation is in a shambles right now.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 2, 2018 7:10:33 GMT -5
Anyone besides me wonder if the fact that they have not been using Kimbrel very much the last few weeks is hurting him rather than helping? Part of his problem seems to be control and I wonder if that might be more easily fixed if he got in a few more games and threw to a few more batters.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 2, 2018 8:03:46 GMT -5
I got a pretty sweet video of Dalbec's swing, but I can't share because the mgt is not answering my question on how to download.
Can anyone give me some tips on how to share a mp4 video that is on my PC?
Thanks.
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Post by jmei on Sept 2, 2018 8:15:51 GMT -5
I got a pretty sweet video of Dalbec's swing, but I can't share because the mgt is not answering my question on how to download. Can anyone give me some tips on how to share a mp4 video that is on my PC? Thanks. Easiest way is to upload it on YouTube or Vimeo and then post a link. Don’t think Proboards allows you to directly upload video.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 2, 2018 8:20:00 GMT -5
Yeah, that sounds nice. But if you tell me you actually have faith in any of our set up men besides Brasier, I literally won't believe you. And to just think it's fine for a historically great team to go into a postseason with that kind of achilles, and not to make an effort to fix it, I just find astounding. The top four bullpens in baseball this year by Win Probability Added, the ultimate and completely accurate assessment of a team's performance with a relief pitcher on the mound, in terms of impact on winning each and every game:
Oakland Chicago Cubs Boston New York Yankees
bWAR take runs allowed by the bullpen and adjusts for ballparks, opposing lineups, and team defense. They have the 5 best pens as:
Philadelphia (historically bad defense)
Boston Chicago Cubs Oakland New York Yankees
The Red Sox bullpen has been very clutch, and a lot of that is Cora's management, but you could make an argument that if you took the luck out their bullpen performance, they'd rank just 5th in WPA.
Given that there are 10 playoff teams, It's unclear to me how a team element that's at worst average for a contender and is quite likely above average is an Achilles heel.
I know, I know, I know, I know, I know. I shouldn't let the facts get in the way of your subjective responses.
Oh, BTW, Zach Britton has now made 15 appearances with the Yankees and has a 4.70 ERA and -0.47 WPA. He gave up the go-ahead run to the Tigers tonight in the 8th and was rescued by the offense.
Out of curiosity, what are the numbers for the past month or even two? I wonder only because it seems like a number of guys got off to good or great starts to the season (Kelly, Barnes, Kimbrel amongst them) and have subsequently come back to Earth. Maybe the stats don’t bear that out.... hence the question. What I mean is... maybe both sides are right? The Sox could have a bullpen with good numbers that has been in decline as it approaches October, making it a concern? Just a thought —
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 2, 2018 8:29:02 GMT -5
Maybe what the bullpen rankings mean is that virtually all teams have inconsistent bullpens. The Yankees/Tigers series is a good example. Betances blows a lead in the 9th, the next day Detroit can't hold the Yankees in the bottom of the 8th.
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Post by patford on Sept 2, 2018 8:38:52 GMT -5
Maybe what the bullpen rankings mean is that virtually all teams have inconsistent bullpens. The Yankees/Tigers series is a good example. Betances blows a lead in the 9th, the next day Detroit can't hold the Yankees in the bottom of the 8th. Right. Look around MLB. Many bullpens are taking on water. It's easy to get frustrated and imagine that if Dombrowski had only gotten "X" that everything would be better, but if "X" had been Britton then what ? There have even been some encouraging signs. Kelly has been good for a few weeks now and Pomeranz might be turning the corner.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 2, 2018 8:39:17 GMT -5
I got a pretty sweet video of Dalbec's swing, but I can't share because the mgt is not answering my question on how to download. Can anyone give me some tips on how to share a mp4 video that is on my PC? Thanks. Easiest way is to upload it on YouTube or Vimeo and then post a link. Don’t think Proboards allows you to directly upload video. Thank you. i don't have accounts for that. It gives you the option to drag and copy, but it doesn't work. Edit: I will say, he was pounding the ball to all parts of the field last night.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 2, 2018 10:48:46 GMT -5
Yeah,the bullpen was bad in August, only 3 effective relievers. August is gone.
Eric must know that Sox will face nyy in alds, not alcs
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Post by soxjim on Sept 2, 2018 10:50:42 GMT -5
Except the bullpen has been pretty good all things considered. But other than that you're right. Yeah, that sounds nice. But if you tell me you actually have faith in any of our set up men besides Brasier, I literally won't believe you. And to just think it's fine for a historically great team to go into a postseason with that kind of achilles, and not to make an effort to fix it, I just find astounding. Man-- you and ancient and soxfan06 -- you got me back to making a post on here (nothing wrong with the site or any posters etc I just decided to stop.). Just wow -- please can you be any more negative? You know chances of winning a w/s are not above 50%. How good was the Astros bullpen last year? And you don't buy into players/teams/pitchers getting hot or cold during a season etc? That happens all the time in baseball for every good team -- ever. SO you're looking into a small window and talking about "malpractice?" Well, what were you thinking back with other sox champ teams? Look at our bullpen in 2004, Keith Foulke didn't scare you? His era was 3.95 in September in which 6 of his 14 appearances resulted in allowing runs. In 2013 Tazawa's in his last appearances of 10.67 innings his era was 8.67 in which 5 of 14 appearances he let up a run. And who was the 7th inning guy in 2013? It was Workman. Workman. Workman. I'm with you I don't have the confidence in the bullpen but who ever does? The dodgers great bullpen of last year got wiped out. The year before the Indians super bullpen got worn down. The cubs had Chapman pitch great and used some of their starters. The Astros used their starters. In 2013 Lackey came in to relieve I believe. I think you are getting yourself tizzle in a wound up tizzie for something in baseball that is extremely difficult to control then refer it as malpractice. If Donaldson produces what would you have done to counter what the Indians just did? How many more prospects do you throw and then hope the 8th inning guy could produce vs the Indians top 6 at I'm hoping you and soxfano6 and ancient have enjoyed the season too. The chances fo a specific team winning the w/s at this moment just like nearly every year is not near 50%. Other teams have pro players too. ------------ As for the bullpen -- for the poster redsoxchamp I did not like Soria either. I'm with eric here. I think late in the 7th or 8th inning if he has to get out a good hitter - I don't consider him lockdown. Imo we have seen when it comes to playoffs it comes down to pitchers being hot vs losing confidence etc. Soria is nothing special. If Soria goes against the Sox - how sure are you that he could mow them down? What about if he were with Sox - when the Yanks get healthy, how confident would you be with him? Sure he is another pticher you are just throwing a dart and hoping he could be okay. How many prospects do we have to continue to throw at these 6-8th inning guys when a starter or a hot Barnes and or Kelly etc could be just as good? WHat about Soria on sox vs the top half of the order vs the Astros or the power hitting A's types of teams or the Indians top half (my God if Donaldson is able to play and get hot. WHat 8th inning guy you think would handle their top-of-the-lineup if that were to happen?)? This is why I can;t believe the misery some feel (not you redsoxchamps) over the bullpen. There are zero assurances for these 6th-8th inning guys. I do agree with you and umass and not with eric regarding Hembree. Put him against good teams - I don't trust him one iota other than pitch to one batter.
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Post by Don Caballero on Sept 2, 2018 11:57:20 GMT -5
Seriously any argument about the bullpen being bad that starts with "would you trust it against X" doesn't hold more weigh than their actual production this year. I'm all up for taking unorthodox stances when it comes to stuff like this, but come on guys.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 2, 2018 11:58:16 GMT -5
Mitch Moreland is demonstrably a guy who needs adequate protection. You can't, for instance, hit him 7th in front of Leon or Vazquez. When they pitch around him, he gets himself out (career .222 EqA / TAv in pitch-around situations with baserunners, coming into this year).
The return to peak form of Nunez (which is to say, the "hot streak" that we know is actually the result of a long effort to optimize his mechanics, according to Cora) plus the acquisition of Kinsler gives the Sox two guys who are capable of protecting Monsieur Two-Baguette.
This means that, please, please, please, Mr. Cora!, Xander Bogaerts can hit 3rd. That puts your five best hitters in an almost perfect sequence. Swap Bradley and Benintendi and it would be theoretically ideal in terms of moving from guys who set the table to guys who knock their teammates in. But that's ignoring Benny's career success with men on, so I'm not sure it can be improved on. Hitting Bradley 9th instead of 5th costs him some PA, but it allows him to set the table for Mookie; if you want Mookie to hit first, you need an actually good hitter 9th. A guy who might suddenly start sucking at any time is a perfect choice for that.
Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, Martinez -- you are starting the lineup with the players who rank 2nd, 6th, 10th, and 1st in MLB in Win Probability Added. No other team in MLB has two players in the top 14.
Nunez suffers noticeably when he's challenged and when he's pitched around (although nowhere to Moreland's degree), so you want to avoid putting him in front of both elite and weak hitters. And Kinsler likes being pitched around a bit. So I like Moreland / Pearce, Nunez, Kinsler 5 -6 - 7 in that order. On days when Swihart catches, you can hit Kinsler 6 and Nunez 7, if you see any point to that.
Making this last tweak will really bring this offense to life. Seriously, what it does is improve the first inning from kinda scary to terrifying.
Meanwhile ... there's no one on either the Yankee or A's starting staff that has a big platoon split (no Jon Lieber types), so I don't see an ALDS start for Devers unless Nunez gets back into his bad habits. But he gives you a nice option off the bench.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 2, 2018 12:10:55 GMT -5
I agree with both sides in the great bullpen debate: on the one side, I too worry about what the Sox have. But I have never trusted Barnes, Kelly, or Hembree. On the other side, I think it is bogus to attack DD for not making a trade. There is a difference between wishing for an improvement and having a practical road. I don’t feel any better about Soria than Barnes, so why give up another prospect for a sidestep? Herrera, if healthy, might be an improvement (might!), but why give up what would have been a lot.
In the end, I look at Barnes, Kelly, and maybe Eovaldi as extremely talented but inconsistent. That means I worry, but there is also a real chance of a dominant hot streak that goes through a whole series or postseason. I’ll root for him that and keep the faith.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 2, 2018 12:12:10 GMT -5
The top four bullpens in baseball this year by Win Probability Added, the ultimate and completely accurate assessment of a team's performance with a relief pitcher on the mound, in terms of impact on winning each and every game:
Oakland Chicago Cubs Boston New York Yankees
bWAR take runs allowed by the bullpen and adjusts for ballparks, opposing lineups, and team defense. They have the 5 best pens as:
Philadelphia (historically bad defense)
Boston Chicago Cubs Oakland New York Yankees
The Red Sox bullpen has been very clutch, and a lot of that is Cora's management, but you could make an argument that if you took the luck out their bullpen performance, they'd rank just 5th in WPA.
Given that there are 10 playoff teams, It's unclear to me how a team element that's at worst average for a contender and is quite likely above average is an Achilles heel.
I know, I know, I know, I know, I know. I shouldn't let the facts get in the way of your subjective responses.
Oh, BTW, Zach Britton has now made 15 appearances with the Yankees and has a 4.70 ERA and -0.47 WPA. He gave up the go-ahead run to the Tigers tonight in the 8th and was rescued by the offense.
Out of curiosity, what are the numbers for the past month or even two? I wonder only because it seems like a number of guys got off to good or great starts to the season (Kelly, Barnes, Kimbrel amongst them) and have subsequently come back to Earth. Maybe the stats don’t bear that out.... hence the question. What I mean is... maybe both sides are right? The Sox could have a bullpen with good numbers that has been in decline as it approaches October, making it a concern? Just a thought — The numbers have to be horrible in the month of August, as it seems only Braiser and Workman were good. That is exactly why we worry. Don't mind Eric he's still trying to defend his position that our bullpen is so good very few guys could have upgraded it. Yet it looks like a train wreck. Guys like Hembree are right back to being who they always were.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 2, 2018 12:18:27 GMT -5
Hembree is like the 5th or 6th option out of the bullpen. What team in the majors in any year has someone better than Hembree as the 5th or 6th option? I swear, people won't be happy until we have 2013 Koji in every spot in the bullpen.
It's also clear that most people don't watch other teams play or notice every time a relief pitcher gives up a run and instead assumes they never do.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 2, 2018 12:24:52 GMT -5
I agree with both sides in the great bullpen debate: on the one side, I too worry about what the Sox have. But I have never trusted Barnes, Kelly, or Hembree. On the other side, I think it is bogus to attack DD for not making a trade. There is a difference between wishing for an improvement and having a practical road. I don’t feel any better about Soria than Barnes, so why give up another prospect for a sidestep? Herrera, if healthy, might be an improvement (might!), but why give up what would have been a lot. In the end, I look at Barnes, Kelly, and maybe Eovaldi as extremely talented but inconsistent. That means I worry, but there is also a real chance of a dominant hot streak that goes through a whole series or postseason. I’ll root for him that and keep the faith. No one wanted to replace Barnes, it was the guys below him. Bullpen arms went cheap this year overall, Soria didn't cost much, neither did Familia. Heck a guy like Romo would have been cheap as an older guy on a one year deal. A ton of us could see this coming so yea if the bullpen implodes in October you can blame DD.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 2, 2018 12:46:25 GMT -5
Looking at last 20 appearances for our pen arms
Brasier - easier to look back to when he joined (22 games) - scored on in only 4 appearances - ERA 1.16, 1-0, 6 holds - consistently reliable
Workman - scored on 6 times in last 20 appearances, 1 win, 4 holds - ERA rose from 2.08 to 2.45 - I'd consider him quite reliable
Kimbrel - scored on 6 times in last 20 appearances - 14 saves, 3 blown saves, 3 wins - ERA rose 2.16 to 2.55 - we score so much he gets rusty - more effective than his often frustrating appearances give on, I think.
Barnes - scored on 8 times in last 20 appearances, 6 holds, 3-1 record, 1 blown save. Recently erratic. ERA rose 2.33 to 3.45
Kelly - scored on 5 times in last 20 appearances, 1 win, 1 loss, 1 hold, 1 blown save - ERA fell 4.31 to 3.72. On the upswing.
Hembree - scored on 8 times in last 20 appearances, 8 holds, 3 blown saves, ERA rose 3.55 to 4.02
Thornburg - in his 22 appearances, scored on 7 times, 3 holds, 2 wins, ERA at 5.31.
Velazquez - not all in relief but in his last 20 appearances scored on 11 times - 2 wins, 2 losses, ERA 2.21 to 3.15
Right now, Brasier, Workman, Kelly are pitching well, Kimbrel well enough (he needs work), Barnes, Hembree, Velazquez (worn down a bit?) and Thornburg struggling the most based on trends.
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Post by trajanacc on Sept 2, 2018 13:32:56 GMT -5
Is Hawk Harrelson filibustering a bill he opposes? This is the most painfully rambling, long speech I’ve ever seen.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 2, 2018 14:06:57 GMT -5
Good thing we now have a deep pen. May need it today
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 2, 2018 14:30:24 GMT -5
Starting in deep holes is growing old fast. Talk about having absolutely nothing today...a rare Johnson rotten egg.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 2, 2018 14:35:00 GMT -5
Well, when your rotation is a combination of injured (Sale/Price) and unreliable (Eovaldi/Porcello), that's what happens.
And now Poyner is struggling, going 3-2 on every hitter. This game may end up being like a visit to the dentist.
And for those who think I am a pessimist, heck no. In fact, now that the Sox have won a few championships, what I HAVEN'T seen in my lifetime is a truly record-dominant team that has the best record in baseball and has over 100 wins. It looks as though I'm going to get that this year, so I can die happy. If they can do that, I'm really not all that worried about whether or not they win another World Series. I realize that the playoffs are much more of a crapshoot, and I've already had a few of those,
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 2, 2018 15:00:02 GMT -5
Poyner not sharp. Cuevas, Scott, Wright may all be on tap. Rare to have the team struggle so much on a day game, getaway game, bad team. If we don't come back in this one, we will be 7 - 8 in our last 15 games. Injuries, long season taking its toll.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 2, 2018 15:01:06 GMT -5
Well, when your rotation is a combination of injured (Sale/Price) and unreliable (Eovaldi/Porcello), that's what happens. The fact that the Sox rotation has been a ragged stitched together mess for most of the second half has been an underrated story, if you ask me - probably because the team has somehow managed to do incredibly well anyways, but that just makes it all the more remarkable! Between 7/27 and 9/1, the Red Sox got a total of one start from their two best starters, Sale and Rodriguez. Not counting that start, they went 20-10.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Sept 2, 2018 15:06:19 GMT -5
The pitching has been bad, but they are also making Big Game James look, well, not like the guy he has been for a few years. This is sort of embarrassing.
Edit: I know how people feel about W-L records, but still: Shields is 16-41 in the last three seasons. Brutal.
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