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9/14-9/16 Red Sox vs. Mets Series Thread
redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 16, 2018 20:06:50 GMT -5
Great baseball day!
In a span of minutes the Jays overtake the Yankees in the 8th as the Sox soon afterwards snap a 3-3 tie. And not much later, daaaaa Yankees lose!! and a minute or two later Dirty Water is blaring over the speakers and my hope came true. The magic number is down to 2 meaning that all the Sox have to do in NY is not get swept and they can celebrate in the Toilet - which is the best place in the world to celebrate victory if you can't do it at Fenway).
I feel like I've been watching JD Martinez bouncing up and down to greet Brock Holt in the dugot after a HR more than the other way around lately. Since when did Brock Holt become a guy who can pound extra base hits?!
And the cool thing about it is he did it on a day they wanted no part of Bogaerts playing.
It was nerve wracking to see Betts leave the game but hopefully he's fine like he says he is.
And they wanted no part of JD Martinez in RF or even in LF (with Benny in CF and JBJ in RF) so they put Lin in CF where he fails to catch a ball that JBJ would have caught, a ball Lin would probably say he should have caught given that it hit off the heel of his glove.
So what does he do? Instead of being PH for in a tie game in the 8th he stays in and doubles off the wall and 2 fly outs to CF brings him home to break the tie.
Sale looked pretty good. Didn't get many swings and misses and his velocity topped out around 97 although he was usually lower than that by a few MPH. I'm hoping that was by design. It sounds like it was?
Hembree struggled again a bit. Maybe it opens the door more for Poyner?
After awhile you can ask yourself - which pitchers in the pen are liable to beat themselves rather than making the hitter beat them? Hembree and Kelly are definitely two. You can say Wright puts himself in precarious situations but that's the nature of the knuckler more than him I'd think and he's been able to escape jams that Kelly and Hembree prolong.
Workman normally gets beat by the HR ball. He rarely walks guys although he did today - and then quickly picked him off. Poyner is kind of similar. And Brasier has exhibited good control, too.
Brasier, Wright, Workman, and perhaps Poyner have separated themselves from the pack.
I'm glad that with the exception of Wright, Cora was able to get the win while resting Brasier and even Kimbrel. He's getting their guys their rest. Good plan going into the playoffs. Fresh players! Imagine that!
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 16, 2018 21:09:55 GMT -5
Hembree struggled again a bit. Maybe it opens the door more for Poyner? After awhile you can ask yourself - which pitchers in the pen are liable to beat themselves rather than making the hitter beat them? Hembree and Kelly are definitely two. You can say Wright puts himself in precarious situations but that's the nature of the knuckler more than him I'd think and he's been able to escape jams that Kelly and Hembree prolong. Workman normally gets beat by the HR ball. He rarely walks guys although he did today - and then quickly picked him off. Poyner is kind of similar. And Brasier has exhibited good control, too. Brasier, Wright, Workman, and perhaps Poyner have separated themselves from the pack. I'm glad that with the exception of Wright, Cora was able to get the win while resting Brasier and even Kimbrel. He's getting their guys their rest. Good plan going into the playoffs. Fresh players! Imagine that! So we take 11 pitchers - Sale, ERod, Porcello and Price - and Kimbrel - are solid - that's 5. Brasier, Wright, Workman, Barnes if he is healthy and gets some good work in - Poyner, Eovaldi are 6, which makes 11. This leaves Pomeranz, Kelly, Hembree, Thornburg, Velazquez, Johnson, Scott and Cuevas as out for the playoff roster. I think the biggest question marks - Eovaldi in or out (I say in), Kelly in or out (I say out), Hembree in or out (I say out). If Barnes can't go, flip a coin - Kelly or Hembree - let's see what each does in the last dozen games. Regrettable omissions (just not enough room) - Velazquez and Johnson, both of whom did just great work when called on. Saddest omissions - Pomeranz and Thornburg - stories of what could have been.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 16, 2018 21:50:28 GMT -5
Here's a strange stat - Workman is 4-0 in his last 6 appearances. last 10 games - 10.1 innings, 2 ER - solo home runs in 2 of his appearances.
went to look when I noted he was 6-0 all of a sudden for the season.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 16, 2018 21:59:23 GMT -5
Hembree struggled again a bit. Maybe it opens the door more for Poyner? After awhile you can ask yourself - which pitchers in the pen are liable to beat themselves rather than making the hitter beat them? Hembree and Kelly are definitely two. You can say Wright puts himself in precarious situations but that's the nature of the knuckler more than him I'd think and he's been able to escape jams that Kelly and Hembree prolong. Workman normally gets beat by the HR ball. He rarely walks guys although he did today - and then quickly picked him off. Poyner is kind of similar. And Brasier has exhibited good control, too. Brasier, Wright, Workman, and perhaps Poyner have separated themselves from the pack. I'm glad that with the exception of Wright, Cora was able to get the win while resting Brasier and even Kimbrel. He's getting their guys their rest. Good plan going into the playoffs. Fresh players! Imagine that! So we take 11 pitchers - Sale, ERod, Porcello and Price - and Kimbrel - are solid - that's 5. Brasier, Wright, Workman, Barnes if he is healthy and gets some good work in - Poyner, Eovaldi are 6, which makes 11. This leaves Pomeranz, Kelly, Hembree, Thornburg, Velazquez, Johnson, Scott and Cuevas as out for the playoff roster. I think the biggest question marks - Eovaldi in or out (I say in), Kelly in or out (I say out), Hembree in or out (I say out). If Barnes can't go, flip a coin - Kelly or Hembree - let's see what each does in the last dozen games. Regrettable omissions (just not enough room) - Velazquez and Johnson, both of whom did just great work when called on. Saddest omissions - Pomeranz and Thornburg - stories of what could have been. I don't think there's any doubt that Eovaldi will be in the bullpen. As it is, if somebody gets hurt in the post-season, he's capable of being stretched out enough to start. Plus he's got good stuff that should play up in the pen. I'm not willing to say he's the best option beyond Kimbrel, but he's good enough to make the pen. I like Poyner, but still have trouble believing he'd make the team over Kelly or Hembree, especially if the opponent is not LH hitting heavy. I think Workman is making himself into a lock. He'd have to be terrible over the next two weeks not to be. Brasier is definitely a lock at this point. And I'd have to say that Wright has also turned himself into a lock at this point barring a disastrous final two weeks. You mentioned the 2 solo HRs by Workman. Bad for the FIP, but I still trust him because he won't beat himself. He normally doesn't put guys on. They have to earn their way on. I think that's big because it leads to a lot less meltdowns. Guys like Kelly and Hembree and to an extent even Barnes have trouble avoiding them because they do put those extra guys on without making them swing the bats. It's also what I like about Poyner, too. He doesn't beat himself either. And you know Wright has nerves of steel if he's out there controlling his knuckler. With it's almost like all of the runs he gave up was in that 1 Seattle game in which he was clearly injured.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2018 12:09:13 GMT -5
Hembree struggled again a bit. Maybe it opens the door more for Poyner? After awhile you can ask yourself - which pitchers in the pen are liable to beat themselves rather than making the hitter beat them? Hembree and Kelly are definitely two. You can say Wright puts himself in precarious situations but that's the nature of the knuckler more than him I'd think and he's been able to escape jams that Kelly and Hembree prolong. Workman normally gets beat by the HR ball. He rarely walks guys although he did today - and then quickly picked him off. Poyner is kind of similar. And Brasier has exhibited good control, too. Brasier, Wright, Workman, and perhaps Poyner have separated themselves from the pack. I'm glad that with the exception of Wright, Cora was able to get the win while resting Brasier and even Kimbrel. He's getting their guys their rest. Good plan going into the playoffs. Fresh players! Imagine that! So we take 11 pitchers - Sale, ERod, Porcello and Price - and Kimbrel - are solid - that's 5. Brasier, Wright, Workman, Barnes if he is healthy and gets some good work in - Poyner, Eovaldi are 6, which makes 11. This leaves Pomeranz, Kelly, Hembree, Thornburg, Velazquez, Johnson, Scott and Cuevas as out for the playoff roster. I think the biggest question marks - Eovaldi in or out (I say in), Kelly in or out (I say out), Hembree in or out (I say out). If Barnes can't go, flip a coin - Kelly or Hembree - let's see what each does in the last dozen games. Regrettable omissions (just not enough room) - Velazquez and Johnson, both of whom did just great work when called on. Saddest omissions - Pomeranz and Thornburg - stories of what could have been. Folks, just because Bobby Poyner's stretches of being completely annihilated by opposition hitters happened in AAA and hence, you didn't see them, doesn't make them less meaningful. In fact, it makes them more meaningful.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2018 12:17:25 GMT -5
An advance heads-up that Tuesday's potential pennant clincher is a 1 PM game. The Yankees apparently did this so that Ian Kinsler wouldn't have to decide whether to play on Yom Kippur. They couldn't have known beforehand that Holt would be a perfectly viable option, even against a LHP.
Of course, I'm joking. Kinsler's Mom is Catholic and he was brought up completely secular, so it would probably not be an issue for him.
(Seriously, it seems that NYC is the only city in the U.S. with enough of a Jewish population that they avoid playing on the holiday. Makes good sense.)
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 17, 2018 13:12:50 GMT -5
So we take 11 pitchers - Sale, ERod, Porcello and Price - and Kimbrel - are solid - that's 5. Brasier, Wright, Workman, Barnes if he is healthy and gets some good work in - Poyner, Eovaldi are 6, which makes 11. This leaves Pomeranz, Kelly, Hembree, Thornburg, Velazquez, Johnson, Scott and Cuevas as out for the playoff roster. I think the biggest question marks - Eovaldi in or out (I say in), Kelly in or out (I say out), Hembree in or out (I say out). If Barnes can't go, flip a coin - Kelly or Hembree - let's see what each does in the last dozen games. Regrettable omissions (just not enough room) - Velazquez and Johnson, both of whom did just great work when called on. Saddest omissions - Pomeranz and Thornburg - stories of what could have been. Folks, just because Bobby Poyner's stretches of being completely annihilated by opposition hitters happened in AAA and hence, you didn't see them, doesn't make them less meaningful. In fact, it makes them more meaningful. Yeah... it's kind of the Austin Maddox argument from last year, all over again (though a little bit less frustrating since the alternatives to Poyner aren't as obvious as Matt Barnes being ahead of Maddox.)
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 17, 2018 13:39:55 GMT -5
What a privilege to be witnessing this!
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 17, 2018 14:45:32 GMT -5
So we take 11 pitchers - Sale, ERod, Porcello and Price - and Kimbrel - are solid - that's 5. Brasier, Wright, Workman, Barnes if he is healthy and gets some good work in - Poyner, Eovaldi are 6, which makes 11. This leaves Pomeranz, Kelly, Hembree, Thornburg, Velazquez, Johnson, Scott and Cuevas as out for the playoff roster. I think the biggest question marks - Eovaldi in or out (I say in), Kelly in or out (I say out), Hembree in or out (I say out). If Barnes can't go, flip a coin - Kelly or Hembree - let's see what each does in the last dozen games. Regrettable omissions (just not enough room) - Velazquez and Johnson, both of whom did just great work when called on. Saddest omissions - Pomeranz and Thornburg - stories of what could have been. Folks, just because Bobby Poyner's stretches of being completely annihilated by opposition hitters happened in AAA and hence, you didn't see them, doesn't make them less meaningful. In fact, it makes them more meaningful. Eric, I'm quite aware of Poyner's minor league numbers, thank you. And maybe it's not your intent, but when you say "Folks...", it sounds like we're the stupid sheep who cannot possibly understand what we see without you pointing out the error of our ways. I'm not saying he's a superstar. I'm saying I'd rather have him than Joe Kelly or Heath Hembree, especially if Hembree is having some minor health issues. I'm more comfortable when he comes into the game. Maybe with more exposure I wouldn't be, but over the next six weeks, I'd rather take my chances with Poyner, but I don't think that Cora necessarily agrees, but I think he is in the conversation now. I think we'll find out more next year as I think Poyner will be a regular in the pen in 2019 and wouldn't be shocked to find out that he's a reasonably effective pitcher. A lot of minor leaguers come up and crap the bed at first after posting nice numbers in the minors. Poyner, for the most part, has been pretty poised and he's not walking the ballpark. Look at Scott's numbers in the minors. If you go completely by that, he'd be your LOOGY in the pen, but look at his crappy small sample size in the majors. He's hitting batters, walking them, etc. Poyner can be hittable at times, but he hasn't been ruffled and when he gets beat it's because the hitters are beating him, not because he's walking the ballpark like Hembree and Kelly and at times Barnes. And as far as your leverage stats, etc, I notice that when he came into a 3-3 tie Saturday in the 6th it didn't rate highly. He retired the side. To me, in that situation, it might not be the highest leverage of them all, but it's still an important game situation. They didn't bring him in a game they trailed by a ton. He didn't pitch in that 8-0 fiasco. They started pitching him in those spots, but he's pitched well and Cora has been bringing him in more important spots. And you keep asserting than Brian Johnson is a #3 starter in the majors. I'm sure he'd be for the Orioles or Royals, but on a good team, he's either a backend starter or starting depth like he is on the Sox. I won't rule out him eventually possibly being a #3 on an average team, but he's not there yet and he might not get there. I don't cringe when it's his turn to pitch, although I don't really care to see him coming out of the pen. He's not a bad pitcher and he's provided very better than replacement level pitching when the Sox needed a replacement pitcher, which is quite valuable, but calling him a #3 is stretching it a bit. He has to be pinpoint with his control. If he's not, he's very hittable. If the Sox started him in Game 3 of the ALDS/ACLS/World Series, I wouldn't be too crazy about our chances. Just so we're clear - this isn't meant to disparage Johnson. I like him and I find him extremely easy to root for. I'd love to see this guy succeed. He's gone through a lot of crap and when you listen to him talk, you sense he's a genuine person, appreciative of his opportunities, not just spouting a bunch of meaningless cliches. Like I said, very easy to root for.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 17, 2018 15:55:41 GMT -5
Poyner can be hittable at times, but he hasn't been ruffled and when he gets beat it's because the hitters are beating him, not because he's walking the ballpark like Hembree and Kelly and at times Barnes. This! I've been a Hembree guy since he came in but I can't see him making the playoffs roster because of his ballooning BB rate this year (remember that Yankees game when the batter was trying to bunt even with 2 strikes and he refused to take the out and ended up walking him instead?) I absolutely despise relievers who walk people, give me Bobby Poyner anyday over that!
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 17, 2018 17:49:06 GMT -5
Poyner can be hittable at times, but he hasn't been ruffled and when he gets beat it's because the hitters are beating him, not because he's walking the ballpark like Hembree and Kelly and at times Barnes. This! I've been a Hembree guy since he came in but I can't see him making the playoffs roster because of his ballooning BB rate this year (remember that Yankees game when the batter was trying to bunt even with 2 strikes and he refused to take the out and ended up walking him instead?) I absolutely despise relievers who walk people, give me Bobby Poyner anyday over that! People like that until they complain about throwing meatballs to guys who hit home runs.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Sept 17, 2018 17:53:52 GMT -5
This! I've been a Hembree guy since he came in but I can't see him making the playoffs roster because of his ballooning BB rate this year (remember that Yankees game when the batter was trying to bunt even with 2 strikes and he refused to take the out and ended up walking him instead?) I absolutely despise relievers who walk people, give me Bobby Poyner anyday over that! People like that until they complain about throwing meatballs to guys who hit home runs. Give me a HR over a leadoff walk
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 17, 2018 18:20:37 GMT -5
This! I've been a Hembree guy since he came in but I can't see him making the playoffs roster because of his ballooning BB rate this year (remember that Yankees game when the batter was trying to bunt even with 2 strikes and he refused to take the out and ended up walking him instead?) I absolutely despise relievers who walk people, give me Bobby Poyner anyday over that! People like that until they complain about throwing meatballs to guys who hit home runs. This would be true if Poyner had given up more homeruns between AAA and in the majors. Poyner has been demonstrably better at giving up homeruns in the minors compared to Hembree and slightly better compared to Hembree in the majors.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 17, 2018 19:49:43 GMT -5
Folks, just because Bobby Poyner's stretches of being completely annihilated by opposition hitters happened in AAA and hence, you didn't see them, doesn't make them less meaningful. In fact, it makes them more meaningful. Eric, I'm quite aware of Poyner's minor league numbers, thank you. And maybe it's not your intent, but when you say "Folks...", it sounds like we're the stupid sheep who cannot possibly understand what we see without you pointing out the error of our ways. I'm not saying he's a superstar. I'm saying I'd rather have him than Joe Kelly or Heath Hembree, especially if Hembree is having some minor health issues. I'm more comfortable when he comes into the game. Maybe with more exposure I wouldn't be, but over the next six weeks, I'd rather take my chances with Poyner, but I don't think that Cora necessarily agrees, but I think he is in the conversation now. I think we'll find out more next year as I think Poyner will be a regular in the pen in 2019 and wouldn't be shocked to find out that he's a reasonably effective pitcher. A lot of minor leaguers come up and crap the bed at first after posting nice numbers in the minors. Poyner, for the most part, has been pretty poised and he's not walking the ballpark. Look at Scott's numbers in the minors. If you go completely by that, he'd be your LOOGY in the pen, but look at his crappy small sample size in the majors. He's hitting batters, walking them, etc. Poyner can be hittable at times, but he hasn't been ruffled and when he gets beat it's because the hitters are beating him, not because he's walking the ballpark like Hembree and Kelly and at times Barnes. And as far as your leverage stats, etc, I notice that when he came into a 3-3 tie Saturday in the 6th it didn't rate highly. He retired the side. To me, in that situation, it might not be the highest leverage of them all, but it's still an important game situation. They didn't bring him in a game they trailed by a ton. He didn't pitch in that 8-0 fiasco. They started pitching him in those spots, but he's pitched well and Cora has been bringing him in more important spots. And you keep asserting than Brian Johnson is a #3 starter in the majors. I'm sure he'd be for the Orioles or Royals, but on a good team, he's either a backend starter or starting depth like he is on the Sox. I won't rule out him eventually possibly being a #3 on an average team, but he's not there yet and he might not get there. I don't cringe when it's his turn to pitch, although I don't really care to see him coming out of the pen. He's not a bad pitcher and he's provided very better than replacement level pitching when the Sox needed a replacement pitcher, which is quite valuable, but calling him a #3 is stretching it a bit. He has to be pinpoint with his control. If he's not, he's very hittable. If the Sox started him in Game 3 of the ALDS/ACLS/World Series, I wouldn't be too crazy about our chances. Just so we're clear - this isn't meant to disparage Johnson. I like him and I find him extremely easy to root for. I'd love to see this guy succeed. He's gone through a lot of crap and when you listen to him talk, you sense he's a genuine person, appreciative of his opportunities, not just spouting a bunch of meaningless cliches. Like I said, very easy to root for. I'm absolutely not saying you're stupid. You're obviously smart and when you're not being irrational, you absolutely add value to conversations here. And let me immediately add that the sort of irrationality that you're bringing to this argument is something that everyone does naturally. When we evolved, we did not have databases of stats. All we had was our personal experience. That stuff speaks to us. It's really hard to override that stuff with contradictory data.
It's well established that if your friend had a Toyota (or whatever the most reliable car in the world happens to be) that was a lemon, you will not buy that car no matter how much data you see showing that the odds of your new Toyota being a lemon are tiny, and smaller than any other brand you could buy.
Now, when you read what you've written, you don't offer a word of argument for why Poyner's stretches of horrendous pitching in Pawtucket shouldn't matter. You know they existed, just like you might know the Toyota data exists, but they don't change how you feel. You say that you're "comfortable when he comes into the game." But if you had seen him get his head handed to him in Pawtucket, you'd be terrified. Your emotional response tells you nothing about Poyner, it just tells you which of his games you've seen. Yes, he's looked poised, but you'd look poised too if you were in a sweet-spot groove where your mechanics were locked in, rather than being completely gone to crap as they appear to be about 60% of the time.
Again, there are many thousands of people who feel much more comfortable driving to the airport than flying, even though their odds of being killed are incredibly greater.
Imagine this scenario. We're debating the best way to get to NYC to see this series. Money is no object because we're all multi-millionaires. The trip to the airport, etc., makes the travel time 3:45 either way. Entertainment along the way will be the same. Ditto food. How do we break the tie? You argue here that we should drive, because you would feel safer that way. Some people agree with you. I post that "Folks, flying is infinitely safer than driving" and you reply that you of course know that, but you'd still feel safer driving.
You would probably admit that your fear of flying was irrational, because (unlike unwarranted confidence in AAA relievers with a SSS of MLB success) that is a common and culturally accepted form of irrationality. Since the odds of getting killed either way are tiny, we would agree to drive just to eliminate your many hours of anxiety.
But now imagine that driving gave you a 50% chance of being killed. Are we still driving to relieve your anxiety over flying? No. We're going to tell you to suck it up, because your irrational confidence that driving was safe was not something we could or should act upon.
You have a perfectly understandable irrational confidence and level of comfort in Bobby Poyner because you have had personal experience with him as a safe option for the bullpen, experience that makes you feel good, while the evidence that he is a significant danger is abstract data that doesn't make you feel anything. Repeating the facts about his comfort level does not constitute an actual argument about whether he should be on the team; it just tells you what post-season pitching staff would make you feel the best, and those are not the same thing.
Now, re Johnson, my scouting take on him coming out of ST was that he was an above-average MLB pitcher, which by definition makes him a #3 starter on a .500 team (and a #4 starter on a contender). He's made 12 starts this year and has a 4.06 ERA while pitching in a hitters park, and the AL average for starting pitchers is 4.39. His xwOBA is in the same territory. He has certainly pitched like a #3 starter this year.
So your statement that "he's not there yet" is just plain factually wrong. Again, it seems to be based on how you feel about him rather than the facts. You may be one of those useful persons who remembers the bad disproportionately to the good--that's useful because it makes the optimists pause and do a reality check. But once we've checked the facts, our job is to say "no, you're wrong about that" and your response, optimally, will be to admit that you were.
Because I think (or like to hope) that once you acknowledge your human tendency to irrationally favor personal experience over complete data sets, and even your selectively biased memories of what you've experienced over the entirety of actually happened, or an incorrect assessment of the relationship of what you've seen to the average because you've experienced the former but not the latter, you can override your natural responses and try to find the rational truth.
It's actually a lot of fun. You explain why you're actually a Johnson fan (for reasons I think everyone here agrees with). Wouldn't it feel good to accept the fact that he' been clearly above average as an MLB starter this year? That's an incredible story, actually. He becomes extremely valuable if he'd good enough to start a post-season game, and that's how good he's been over his 12 starts. The '86 Red Sox would have killed to have him instead of Al Nipper.
Maybe I'm embarking on a futile exercise by trying to talk a glass-half-empty guy into realizing that the glass is actually 60% full, but I have to give it a shot. I'm an optimist!
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 17, 2018 21:49:19 GMT -5
Eric, I'm quite aware of Poyner's minor league numbers, thank you. And maybe it's not your intent, but when you say "Folks...", it sounds like we're the stupid sheep who cannot possibly understand what we see without you pointing out the error of our ways. I'm not saying he's a superstar. I'm saying I'd rather have him than Joe Kelly or Heath Hembree, especially if Hembree is having some minor health issues. I'm more comfortable when he comes into the game. Maybe with more exposure I wouldn't be, but over the next six weeks, I'd rather take my chances with Poyner, but I don't think that Cora necessarily agrees, but I think he is in the conversation now. I think we'll find out more next year as I think Poyner will be a regular in the pen in 2019 and wouldn't be shocked to find out that he's a reasonably effective pitcher. A lot of minor leaguers come up and crap the bed at first after posting nice numbers in the minors. Poyner, for the most part, has been pretty poised and he's not walking the ballpark. Look at Scott's numbers in the minors. If you go completely by that, he'd be your LOOGY in the pen, but look at his crappy small sample size in the majors. He's hitting batters, walking them, etc. Poyner can be hittable at times, but he hasn't been ruffled and when he gets beat it's because the hitters are beating him, not because he's walking the ballpark like Hembree and Kelly and at times Barnes. And as far as your leverage stats, etc, I notice that when he came into a 3-3 tie Saturday in the 6th it didn't rate highly. He retired the side. To me, in that situation, it might not be the highest leverage of them all, but it's still an important game situation. They didn't bring him in a game they trailed by a ton. He didn't pitch in that 8-0 fiasco. They started pitching him in those spots, but he's pitched well and Cora has been bringing him in more important spots. And you keep asserting than Brian Johnson is a #3 starter in the majors. I'm sure he'd be for the Orioles or Royals, but on a good team, he's either a backend starter or starting depth like he is on the Sox. I won't rule out him eventually possibly being a #3 on an average team, but he's not there yet and he might not get there. I don't cringe when it's his turn to pitch, although I don't really care to see him coming out of the pen. He's not a bad pitcher and he's provided very better than replacement level pitching when the Sox needed a replacement pitcher, which is quite valuable, but calling him a #3 is stretching it a bit. He has to be pinpoint with his control. If he's not, he's very hittable. If the Sox started him in Game 3 of the ALDS/ACLS/World Series, I wouldn't be too crazy about our chances. Just so we're clear - this isn't meant to disparage Johnson. I like him and I find him extremely easy to root for. I'd love to see this guy succeed. He's gone through a lot of crap and when you listen to him talk, you sense he's a genuine person, appreciative of his opportunities, not just spouting a bunch of meaningless cliches. Like I said, very easy to root for. I'm absolutely not saying you're stupid. You're obviously smart and when you're not being irrational, you absolutely add value to conversations here. And let me immediately add that the sort of irrationality that you're bringing to this argument is something that everyone does naturally. When we evolved, we did not have databases of stats. All we had was our personal experience. That stuff speaks to us. It's really hard to override that stuff with contradictory data. It's well established that if your friend had a Toyota (or whatever the most reliable car in the world happens to be) that was a lemon, you will not buy that car no matter how much data you see showing that the odds of your new Toyota being a lemon are tiny, and smaller than any other brand you could buy. Now, when you read what you've written, you don't offer a word of argument for why Poyner's stretches of horrendous pitching in Pawtucket shouldn't matter. You know they existed, just like you might know the Toyota data exists, but they don't change how you feel. You say that you're "comfortable when he comes into the game." But if you had seen him get his head handed to him in Pawtucket, you'd be terrified. Your emotional response tells you nothing about Poyner, it just tells you which of his games you've seen. Yes, he's looked poised, but you'd look poised too if you were in a sweet-spot groove where your mechanics were locked in, rather than being completely gone to crap as they appear to be about 60% of the time. Again, there are many thousands of people who feel much more comfortable driving to the airport than flying, even though their odds of being killed are incredibly greater.
Imagine this scenario. We're debating the best way to get to NYC to see this series. Money is no object because we're all multi-millionaires. The trip to the airport, etc., makes the travel time 3:45 either way. Entertainment along the way will be the same. Ditto food. How do we break the tie? You argue here that we should drive, because you would feel safer that way. Some people agree with you. I post that "Folks, flying is infinitely safer than driving" and you reply that you of course know that, but you'd still feel safer driving. You would probably admit that your fear of flying was irrational, because (unlike unwarranted confidence in AAA relievers with a SSS of MLB success) that is a common and culturally accepted form of irrationality. Since the odds of getting killed either way are tiny, we would agree to drive just to eliminate your many hours of anxiety. But now imagine that driving gave you a 50% chance of being killed. Are we still driving to relieve your anxiety over flying? No. We're going to tell you to suck it up, because your irrational confidence that driving was safe was not something we could or should act upon. You have a perfectly understandable irrational confidence and level of comfort in Bobby Poyner because you have had personal experience with him as a safe option for the bullpen, experience that makes you feel good, while the evidence that he is a significant danger is abstract data that doesn't make you feel anything. Repeating the facts about his comfort level does not constitute an actual argument about whether he should be on the team; it just tells you what post-season pitching staff would make you feel the best, and those are not the same thing.
Now, re Johnson, my scouting take on him coming out of ST was that he was an above-average MLB pitcher, which by definition makes him a #3 starter on a .500 team (and a #4 starter on a contender). He's made 12 starts this year and has a 4.06 ERA while pitching in a hitters park, and the AL average for starting pitchers is 4.39. His xwOBA is in the same territory. He has certainly pitched like a #3 starter this year. So your statement that "he's not there yet" is just plain factually wrong. Again, it seems to be based on how you feel about him rather than the facts. You may be one of those useful persons who remembers the bad disproportionately to the good--that's useful because it makes the optimists pause and do a reality check. But once we've checked the facts, our job is to say "no, you're wrong about that" and your response, optimally, will be to admit that you were. Because I think (or like to hope) that once you acknowledge your human tendency to irrationally favor personal experience over complete data sets, and even your selectively biased memories of what you've experienced over the entirety of actually happened, or an incorrect assessment of the relationship of what you've seen to the average because you've experienced the former but not the latter, you can override your natural responses and try to find the rational truth.
It's actually a lot of fun. You explain why you're actually a Johnson fan (for reasons I think everyone here agrees with). Wouldn't it feel good to accept the fact that he' been clearly above average as an MLB starter this year? That's an incredible story, actually. He becomes extremely valuable if he'd good enough to start a post-season game, and that's how good he's been over his 12 starts. The '86 Red Sox would have killed to have him instead of Al Nipper.
Maybe I'm embarking on a futile exercise by trying to talk a glass-half-empty guy into realizing that the glass is actually 60% full, but I have to give it a shot. I'm an optimist!
I know you're an "optimist" I sometimes think you cherry pick numbers you want to see so that it supports your world view. Doesn't make you a bad person or anything like that. It's a human thing, too. Nothing wrong with that. I know Poyner has had struggles at times. I know his ERA wasn't 1.5 at Pawtucket and he struggled a bit at the end of August, but his numbers really aren't that bad and I do think he can have a season or 2 like Craig Breslow did in 2013 and that's a useful pitcher. But I also believe if Hembree had been in AAA he would have had his outings where he walked too many AAA batters and got his ERA blown up a bit, too. I've seen him lose his control and walk a few too many or lose his command where he falls behind in the count and gets hit hard. That wouldn't have been hidden in AAA either. I think it comes down to preference. Giving up a walk doesn't necessarily turn into a run the way a HR does, but for my sanity watching guys continually fall behind in counts and walk guys absolutely drives me crazy. I'd rather a guy get beat trying to throw strike than get beat because they can't find the plate. It's kind of like slow torture. Like I said, I think Poyner will get consideration especially if the team they face might be more susceptible to a lefty or if Hembree or Kelly isn't a favorable matchup. Still, I do expect Cora to go with who brung him and that would be in pecking order 1) Hembree, 2) Kelly, 3) Poyner. But I do think Poyner is squarely in the conversation as a legit possibility now. For me, if you're going to evaluate Johnson, you need to count his relief appearances too. They count, not just discard them because it doesn't fit the narrative. I also do believe with more exposure he'd struggle more, kind of the way Velazquez has begun to struggle in his starts. Not as bad, but still I believe that ERA would rise above 4.39 with more turns in the rotation. Again, not to disparage Johnson because he really doesn't deserve to be disparaged as I've come to appreciate what he's done for the Sox. As it was I was disappointed that Cuevas and not Johnson got the start in the opener against the Mets. The Sox had holes in the rotation and he plugged it as well as you can hope for. With a lot of 4 or 5 inning stints. Number 3 pitchers should be able to pitch further into a game more consistently. And like I said, Johnson would not be a #3 on a playoff worthy team, at least not on one that expects to go far anyways. I can see him being a #3 on a cellar dweller type of team. I see elements in his game that can allow for a season or two of hitting his spots often enough and being able to be at least an average pitcher, in terms of performance and ability to consistently work into the 6th inning. We're not going to see eye-to-eye on this. So I'll find something I absolutely 110% agree with you on - the 1986 Red Sox would most definitely have loved to have had a Brian Johnson start against the Mets over an Al Nipper. The Sox especially liked lefties against the 86 Mets. Hurst was big trouble for them. But I will always lament that we never did get to see Tom Seaver go up against the Mets. Not only was he still a good pitcher, but the guy who led the Mets in 69 going up against them in 86 would have been just too good a storyline!
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,336
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Post by radiohix on Sept 17, 2018 22:17:57 GMT -5
Astros lose. Magic number for best record in baseball (home field advantage) is down to 4. It's all good folks.
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Post by patford on Sept 17, 2018 22:21:57 GMT -5
I have not looked deeply into Poyner's numbers at Pawtucket but his 3.14 ERA suggest his stretches of getting killed must have been fairly brief. In fact as he is a relief pitcher (not a lot of innings) the fact he got absolutely killed during some stretch of time might indicate he as a whole pitched far better than his 3.14 ERA indicates. It is not an uncommon argument that if a person throws out a couple of particularly bad games a players stat line looks at lot better. And again. 3.14 is not bad.
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Post by patford on Sept 17, 2018 22:31:02 GMT -5
Another thing I like about Poyner is he has an anecdotal reputation of performing UP to the moment. In other words he has a knack for not choking. Or even raising his game and being at his best in the biggest moments. That attribute is "a thing." I don't think there is any doubt some guys have IT and some are the exact opposite. I don't know if Poyner has IT or not, but his story is that is who he has been in the past.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 18, 2018 1:07:58 GMT -5
For me, I'm just not buying into the narrative that says the Sox are likely to follow recent trends just because it's the thing to do. The Sox strength will be Sale, Price, ERod & Porcello. Whether the 11th pitcher on the staff is actually the 11th best choice or the 12th best choice is not likely to make one bit of difference.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 18, 2018 7:30:20 GMT -5
I have not looked deeply into Poyner's numbers at Pawtucket but his 3.14 ERA suggest his stretches of getting killed must have been fairly brief. In fact as he is a relief pitcher (not a lot of innings) the fact he got absolutely killed during some stretch of time might indicate he as a whole pitched far better than his 3.14 ERA indicates. It is not an uncommon argument that if a person throws out a couple of particularly bad games a players stat line looks at lot better. And again. 3.14 is not bad. They weren't brief stretches. They were a bit longer than his good stretches. (The full numbers are in the post-season roster thread.)
He was Joe Kelly down there, but even more extreme. Ridiculously good or awful. He was never a 3.14 ERA guy. He allowed opponent OPS of 374, 1006, 263, and 960, in 6.1, 7, 7.2, and 9.2 IP respectively.
If you knew you were getting the good Poyner, you'd take him in a heartbeat. But everyone knows this is also true of Kelly, and even if Kelly is lights out the rest of the way, people will still be wary of him.
If you didn't have better options, you'd roll the dice with him. But it seems like Johnson is a better option (much tougher on LHB, for one thing), and Kelly is the same guy only quite a bit better (albeit a righty).
Now, if Poyner can lengthen his good stretches and reduce his bad stretches, he'll be a very useful arm next year and onward.
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Post by patford on Sept 18, 2018 8:27:08 GMT -5
I have not looked deeply into Poyner's numbers at Pawtucket but his 3.14 ERA suggest his stretches of getting killed must have been fairly brief. In fact as he is a relief pitcher (not a lot of innings) the fact he got absolutely killed during some stretch of time might indicate he as a whole pitched far better than his 3.14 ERA indicates. It is not an uncommon argument that if a person throws out a couple of particularly bad games a players stat line looks at lot better. And again. 3.14 is not bad. They weren't brief stretches. They were a bit longer than his good stretches. (The full numbers are in the post-season roster thread.)
He was Joe Kelly down there, but even more extreme. Ridiculously good or awful. He was never a 3.14 ERA guy. He allowed opponent OPS of 374, 1006, 263, and 960, in 6.1, 7, 7.2, and 9.2 IP respectively.
If you knew you were getting the good Poyner, you'd take him in a heartbeat. But everyone knows this is also true of Kelly, and even if Kelly is lights out the rest of the way, people will still be wary of him.
If you didn't have better options, you'd roll the dice with him. But it seems like Johnson is a better option (much tougher on LHB, for one thing), and Kelly is the same guy only quite a bit better (albeit a righty).
Now, if Poyner can lengthen his good stretches and reduce his bad stretches, he'll be a very useful arm next year and onward.
What about the other 13 innings ?
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Post by jmei on Sept 18, 2018 9:00:40 GMT -5
Dicing up a tiny 30 inning sample of AAA innings into even smaller, cherry-picked stretches and only looking at the ones that support your conclusion is bad analysis.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 18, 2018 9:35:53 GMT -5
Dicing up a tiny 30 inning sample of AAA innings into even smaller, cherry-picked stretches and only looking at the ones that support your conclusion is bad analysis. Isn’t that what everyone does around here when declaring that everyone in the bullpen sucks? Everyone focuses on Kelly’s bad appearances while ignoring he was lights out for a few months. Ditto on just about every other guy in the pen. If people saw Poyner blow up for stretches in the majors, most wouldn’t even consider him for a playoff spot. But it happened in the minors when no one was watching. It’s the same way for other teams’ bullpens. If people don’t see bad things happen, they assume that they’re better than the Sox bullpen.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 18, 2018 9:45:12 GMT -5
I mean, Joe Kelly has a 4.19 ERA and hasn't walked fewer than 4.2 batters per nine innings since 2015. You don't need to do a whole lot of small-sample dicing to be at "eh, he's not really that good."
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Post by patford on Sept 18, 2018 12:52:30 GMT -5
Dicing up a tiny 30 inning sample of AAA innings into even smaller, cherry-picked stretches and only looking at the ones that support your conclusion is bad analysis. Not that it's all that big a difference but it should have been 43 innings unless his Sox Prospects.com stat page is off.
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