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Catcher in 2019 (4/16: Swihart DFA'd)
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Post by RedSoxStats on Mar 25, 2019 12:35:37 GMT -5
They were all shopped over the winter. It was just a bad year for it, a couple top catchers were available, a ton of mediocrity, and Maldonado was still available when KC got their injury. If they could have got even a mediocre piece for Leon at any point they would have, I don't believe Vazquez or Swihart were going anywhere unless it was a stunning offer.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 25, 2019 13:19:16 GMT -5
I think Sandy Leon was a terrific addition to this team. Offensive struggles be damned, he did a truly outstanding job with the pitching staff. At the same time, barring a reasonable return for Vazquez (which obviously the Sox did not feel they were offered), this is the best outcome. Sandy’ll catch on elsewhere, and he’s got a WS ring and membership on one of the all-time great teams to hang his hat on 50 years from now. My sense is that Vazquez showed a significant adjustment to his attitude that gives the brass confidence in his ability to take ownership of the staff. I think he’s a better player than he showed last year, and he’s still young enough that he’s got a little bit more upside, probably settling in to to 1.5-2 WAR range, possibly higher given his framing. And I’m ecstatic that they kept Swihart and that he’ll be seeing a big boost in PAs. He’s very clearly young enough that there’s substantial upside, and regular ABs are, I think, the key to unlocking that potential.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 25, 2019 17:11:17 GMT -5
My original market rundown, with outcomes in bold. Let's see what happened to the backup catcher market I thought existed. Numbers were estimated WAR.
Mets - starter, Realmuto frontrunner. He's just 3.2, thanks to bad pitch-calling. Signed Wilson Ramos. Dodgers -- starter, primary competition for Realmuto. Promoted Austin Barnes to starter (which I later said was a reasonable option) and traded for Russell Martin as backup. White Sox - starter (linked to Grandal, 3.9). All they have is Welington Castillo (-0.2). Stood pat. Angels - starter (linked to Ramos, 2.6). Non-prospect Jose Briceno had an improbable 1.7 (in 128 PA); it's unlikely that they'd trust him with the starting job. Signed Lucroy. Athletics -starter (have Chris Herrmann as backup). Signed Nick Hundley as mlfa; he backs up Josh Phegley.
After the three big names go, there's a Red Sox catcher and Martin Maldanado, who was 1.1 (not 1.5 as I reported before).
Reds -- to upgrade Tucker Barnhart (-0.1) via Realmuto. They should be looking for a starter; I don't think the MLB.com writer realized how much of a defensive butcher Barnhart is. If they are, then it's even more of a sellers' market. Stood pat.
Brewers - looking to upgrade Manny Pina (1.7) / Eric Kratz (2.5) with Realmuto. They'd deal one of these guys if they did so, so it wouldn't change the market. Signed Grandal and traded Kratz to the Giants. Rays -- to upgrade Zunino (2.3) with Realmuto. They'd deal Zunino. Stood pat, no surprise. Padres -- to upgrade Austin Hedges (3.1) with Realmuto. They'd deal Hedges. Makes no sense, but they're the Padres. Ditto.
Cardinals -- backup to Yadi (vacant) Signed Matt Wieters. Cubs -- backup to Contreras (upgrade to Victor Caratini, -0.3) Stood pat so far. Giants -- backup to Posey (upgrade to Aramis Garcia, 2.3 but questions as to whether he can catch). Traded for Kratz. Rockies -- backup to Iannetta (upgrade to Tony Wolters, 1.8. I think the MLB.com writer doesn't know how good a defender he is.) Stood pat, again unsurprising.
----- So the A's are the only club that would seem to have a use for Leon. But they just selected Hundley, so they might be done. , and the Cubs They do have have waiver priority (as DFA points out in the next post).
I can't find another club that needs a catching upgrade other than them and the Cubs. Blue Jays rookie Danny Jansen made Martin expendable and that filled the Dodgers' need. Grandal went to a club that already had two catchers, and that freed up Kratz to fill the Giants' need. The Cardinals liked Wieters better than Leon. The Angels liked Lucroy as a starter better than Leon. The White Sox decided they wern't contenders yet. So even with the Royals needing Maldonado, in the end the market was thin.
Conclusion: 7 to 1 he's traded to the Cubs or A's, 12 to 1 he clears waivers, otherwise he goes to the Cubs for nothing. Theo and Jed waited smartly.
Two things that led to this situation:
1) Leon was ultimately behind Wieters and Lucroy on the consensus want list, even though Leon had better numbers even without pitch-calling. Now, if folks thunk they've found the secret to turning each of them into some version of their former selves, that's not crazy.
2) The A's had no interest in Leon, promoted their own backup to starter, and didn't even think a lottery ticket prospect was worth the difference between Leon and Hundley. That's baffling, unless they are strapped for cash worse than I'm guessing.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Mar 25, 2019 22:13:06 GMT -5
Y do I think Leon has to clear thru the entire AL before the NL gets a shot? Oak would have claim ahead of Cubs.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 26, 2019 12:39:00 GMT -5
Well that clears that up. Obviously Sox couldn't trade him in the offseason if no one even wants him for nothing:
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 26, 2019 12:48:14 GMT -5
Well that clears that up. Obviously Sox couldn't trade him in the offseason if no one even wants him for nothing: Interesting that no team in baseball valued him enough with the success he has had with the pitching staff, seems short sighted but what do I know.
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 26, 2019 12:49:17 GMT -5
Obviously this is proof of collusion.
But I love being able to keep the depth. Might even be able to trade Leon or Centeno if there are injuries and a team is desperate later.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2019 12:49:30 GMT -5
So I researched the hell out of this last night.
- Making a single trade deadline essentially means they got rid of trade waivers. It's two ways to describe the same thing. - Outright waivers are irrevocable. That is what Leon was placed on, as I speculated. - If Leon is claimed, he and his contract go to the claiming team, obviously. Order of preference is not by league, but rather all of MLB. The AL-then-NL thing was also trade waivers. Outright waivers and unconditional release waivers are just the other 29 teams in order of winning percentage. I think at least. - If Leon clears, the Red Sox will assign his contract to Pawtucket. He can either accept the assignment or elect to become a free agent. He can do this because he has more than 3 years of service time and because he's been outrighted before. - If Leon accepts the assignment, he still gets paid his $2.475M. If he elects to become a free agent, he gives that all up. If he had 5 years of service time (he's 23 days short), he could have refused the minor league assignment. In that case, the club would have had to release him and I think that's the situation in which he'd have kept his full pay, but I'm not sure of how the non-guaranteed arb contract would've played into that. - The arb contract thing, but the way, would've been if they put him on unconditional release waivers. They'd have owed him 45 days termination pay (about 25%), and that's the number that would've counted towards the CBT as well. - Speaking of which, if Leon clears outright waivers, his full $2.475M counts toward the CBT, whether or not he stays (you may remember this change in the most recent CBA as the reason Rusney Castillo is a permanent fixture in Pawtucket until his deal runs out).
Put simply, the Red Sox chose this route because they hope he clears and sticks around in Pawtucket so that he doesn't lose that money. Based on the apparent lack of trade interest, I think this is actually a good gamble. In this free agent market, even with an MLB deal, he won't make that, I don't think. Martin Maldonado got 2.5M and he is something of a more fortunate man's version of Leon.
Here's the relevant clauses for those who wish to read:
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Post by patford on Mar 26, 2019 13:08:39 GMT -5
The Sox might consider promotion to AAA ball for any pitcher they are really high on and believe can come close to handling the level.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 26, 2019 13:36:42 GMT -5
Pete Abraham now says that Leon hasn't decided whether he's accepting his Pawtucket assignment or not.
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mobaz
Veteran
Posts: 2,799
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Post by mobaz on Mar 26, 2019 13:54:31 GMT -5
Take the money, Sandy! You ain't getting $2.5M anywhere else. And still a good shot he'd end up in the bigs by the end of the season.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 26, 2019 14:19:01 GMT -5
I'd like him to return. But I'd also like to note the fact that 23 days of service time is the difference between him getting paid and not getting paid is a steaming pile of moist garbage.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Mar 26, 2019 14:38:56 GMT -5
Ok makes sense now. Still can't fully understand no team wanting a good veteran catcher for 2.5 million, but OK great depth.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Mar 26, 2019 14:50:37 GMT -5
I'd like him to return. But I'd also like to note the fact that 23 days of service time is the difference between him getting paid and not getting paid is a steaming pile of moist garbage. As Chris notes above, the 23 days only refers to the option to become a free agent and receive termination pay. If he's content making almost 2.5mil in Pawtucket then he still gets paid - pretty sweet deal if you ask me. (although this shows the Red Sox misread the market when they agreed to his arbitration number)
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 26, 2019 15:48:28 GMT -5
So I researched the hell out of this last night. - Making a single trade deadline essentially means they got rid of trade waivers. It's two ways to describe the same thing. - Outright waivers are irrevocable. That is what Leon was placed on, as I speculated. - If Leon is claimed, he and his contract go to the claiming team, obviously. Order of preference is not by league, but rather all of MLB. The AL-then-NL thing was also trade waivers. Outright waivers and unconditional release waivers are just the other 29 teams in order of winning percentage. I think at least. - If Leon clears, the Red Sox will assign his contract to Pawtucket. He can either accept the assignment or elect to become a free agent. He can do this because he has more than 3 years of service time and because he's been outrighted before. - If Leon accepts the assignment, he still gets paid his $2.475M. If he elects to become a free agent, he gives that all up. If he had 5 years of service time (he's 23 days short), he could have refused the minor league assignment. In that case, the club would have had to release him and I think that's the situation in which he'd have kept his full pay, but I'm not sure of how the non-guaranteed arb contract would've played into that. - The arb contract thing, but the way, would've been if they put him on unconditional release waivers. They'd have owed him 45 days termination pay (about 25%), and that's the number that would've counted towards the CBT as well. - Speaking of which, if Leon clears outright waivers, his full $2.475M counts toward the CBT, whether or not he stays (you may remember this change in the most recent CBA as the reason Rusney Castillo is a permanent fixture in Pawtucket until his deal runs out). Put simply, the Red Sox chose this route because they hope he clears and sticks around in Pawtucket so that he doesn't lose that money. Based on the apparent lack of trade interest, I think this is actually a good gamble. In this free agent market, even with an MLB deal, he won't make that, I don't think. Martin Maldonado got 2.5M and he is something of a more fortunate man's version of Leon. Chris, you're a hero. Do the 48 hours Leon has to decide start at the end of the 48-hour claiming window (which expired at 2 PM)? I would assume so. And have we heard officially that he did clear? Re your Twitter rant re Swihart's 2018: I look at it as a redshirt year where they were teaching him pitch-calling and working on other aspects of his defense. You can't argue with the team record that they had with Leon starting, and you have to trust that any offensive gain Swihart would have given them would have been more than offset defensively. I could crunch the numbers on how big a pitch-calling difference there would need to be to make this the best decision, but I'm pretty sure that it's quite credible in size.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 26, 2019 16:00:29 GMT -5
I'd like him to return. But I'd also like to note the fact that 23 days of service time is the difference between him getting paid and not getting paid is a steaming pile of moist garbage. As Chris notes above, the 23 days only refers to the option to become a free agent and receive termination pay. If he's content making almost 2.5mil in Pawtucket then he still gets paid - pretty sweet deal if you ask me. (although this shows the Red Sox misread the market when they agreed to his arbitration number) Not necessarily. If they didn't pay him that, it just means they go to arb. Maybe they win, or maybe they lose and he gets even more.
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Post by jchang on Mar 26, 2019 16:20:26 GMT -5
so if Sandy ends up in Pawtucket, he will be the second highest paid player on the club?
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Post by bluechip on Mar 27, 2019 13:52:38 GMT -5
I'd like him to return. But I'd also like to note the fact that 23 days of service time is the difference between him getting paid and not getting paid is a steaming pile of moist garbage. Well he is going to be paid. He just will need to actually work.
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Post by michael on Mar 27, 2019 20:22:38 GMT -5
Wouldn't Leon's return to the PawSox serve several worthwhile purposes? He'd be available, albeit after being reinstated on the 40 man roster, to come up and substitute for an injured CV or Sweihart. He'd be the sort of veteran presence any minor league club can use. He'd also be a big help in developing young pitchers. Seems like a great deal for both Sox and Leon who'd be making ML wages.
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Post by dmaineah on Mar 27, 2019 20:53:13 GMT -5
Wouldn't Leon's return to the PawSox serve several worthwhile purposes? He'd be available, albeit after being reinstated on the 40 man roster, to come up and substitute for an injured CV or Sweihart. He'd be the sort of veteran presence any minor league club can use. He'd also be a big help in developing young pitchers. Seems like a great deal for both Sox and Leon who'd be making ML wages. And then when he came off the IL Leon would have to be waived again because he is out of options, unless the Sox decided to carry 3 catchers again. I agree on what Leon can to do to help in AAA. I think the Sox made the right choice here.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 28, 2019 11:43:38 GMT -5
Sandy Leon is sticking around per what I read on mlbtraderumors.com
Sandy Leon Clears Waivers, Accepts Outright Assignment
By Steve Adams | March 28, 2019 at 11:30am CDT
March 28: Leon has accepted his assignment to Triple-A, the team announced.
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Post by telson13 on Mar 28, 2019 12:16:27 GMT -5
Sandy Leon is sticking around per what I read on mlbtraderumors.com Sandy Leon Clears Waivers, Accepts Outright Assignment By Steve Adams | March 28, 2019 at 11:30am CDT March 28: Leon has accepted his assignment to Triple-A, the team announced. Just saw it in the Globe. That’s the best possible outcome. I’m not only glad he’s still in the org, but I think it’s a huge boon for the Pawtucket staff. I’d think it’s akin to having another pitching coach, in a sense. Sandy really does call a fantastic game, and I think the young guys (esp Shawaryn and Lakins) will benefit. Depending on how long he stays, too, he could end up playing a bit of a crash Davis role for The Evolution, Houck (smash), and Feltman. Could be a big help transitioning them to MLB roles. And a good source for the MLB club as far as asking/learning the tendencies of those young guys and what to watch out for, both success- and struggle-wise.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Mar 29, 2019 6:07:12 GMT -5
The Sox obviously made the right decision. CVaz OPS is .750 and his R/150 is 150. He's a scoring machine.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 16, 2019 11:34:52 GMT -5
Wow. Big time panic move.
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Post by mredsox89 on Apr 16, 2019 11:37:03 GMT -5
There are only two real explanations for this move.
Either Swihart did something worthy of them just dumping him or the pitching staff basically said we'd be far better with Sandy catching.
Outside of that, it makes zero sense to do that now vs. a month ago. Not that he had a ton of trade value then, but maybe you get a flier from someone.
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