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The Red Sox Offseason Thread: Who do you want for 2019?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2018 5:18:04 GMT -5
Do you think it's likely that the Sox are going to count on both Pedroia and Wright's knee ? Same operation, same result, both expected back early this year neither actually made it. There is no track record for that particular procedure. Maybe Pomeranz will take a minor league contract. btw, I too see no reason to think the Sox won't be better next year. Pedroia alone makes up for a lot of what happened this year. Pedroia has said that he's certain he'll be OK with another winter of work. Wright did make it back for a good chunk of the year before a pair of progressively lesser flare-ups, and he was close to being ready to go this October. I've never heard of a knee injury costing any athlete two full years. The surgeries to the knees of Pedrioa and Wright were unprecedented in baseball (as in they've never happened before). The doctor in the article of both Wright and Pedrioa that performed both surgeries said the prognosis long term seemed great and there could be a full recovery (I can try and recover the Ken Ronsenthal article to reprove the point), but it's a complete unknown at this point. The original prognosis for Pedrioa was 7-8 months and he missed a full calendar year in baseball for example. He wasn't originally expected to miss the full year. Remember that. Maybe a month or two at worst in the 2018 season. The basic point is you can't even begin to guess with the surgeries to both Pedrioa and Wright have with their recovery times because both surgeries have *usually never happened* to players in today's game of baseball. It's like guestemating what the recovery time for what Tommy John surgery could have been for pitchers 10-15 years ago. No one really had a clue at that point and I don't know what teams even did back then to get their pitchers to begin their recoveries at that point.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2018 5:35:56 GMT -5
Why does everyone on this forum obsess about trading players away who are keys to the team such as Sale, Porcello, JBJ? I get this is a prospect fourm but the idea is to win. We have a window now. We should be adding not subtracting. The Sox just won a world series. The pressure is off to win imo. Unless John Henry wants to maximize before he sells soon, it might be time to maximize on a retool period before free agency catches up with the Sox and they can't do such a thing in 2019. That's the point. Winning might not be the biggest motivator or it could be. It really depends on what John Henry wants. He's what 70+ years old, so maybe I can see everyone's point in seeing why Porcello won't be traded, along with JBJ. Maybe this Sox team is at this point where this ownership group *just wants to maximize on their window.* Hey, not the worst idea in the world, but *IT MIGHT NOT BE THE BEST IDEA EVER FOR THE FUTURE OF THE ORGANIZATION EITHER.* Again, Henry might not care about that and might be telling Dombrowski not to worry about this either. We will find out this offseason though. If this team is protecting one year deal assets like Porcello, then yeap you have your answer. It's not a hate thing with JBJ or Porcello. Get over that everyone. I like both players and what they've brought here over the years. It's about future and control.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 31, 2018 7:45:46 GMT -5
I don't think you hate Porcello or Bradley, nor have I seen anyone else imply you do. Chill man. You just recomend trading them, as do a few others. I simply disagree in that logic. I think we have a chance to win it all again next year and short of the Sox completely falling apart, they should keep those two. If the Sox are trading good players away, my point is that Sale would bring back the most in return, but sure Porcello and Bradley can certainly bring back something too.
It all depends on what we are doing. If we are trying to win this year and save money next year, keep Porcello and let him walk after the year. Perhaps Porcello gets a new deal and Sale gets traded because he wants Price money and years? After 2019, there are some very tough choices, I don't think trading Porcello this year would bring in equal value to help us win in 2019. He is more valuable to this team for 2019, than what we would receive in a trade for him, in my humble opinion.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 31, 2018 8:44:04 GMT -5
I find it really hard to be rational about Rick Porcello. He's been good, had the one outstanding season, and might be the captain of the team if such a thing existed. I can kind of see the arguments for trading him IF they keep Eovaldi (keeping in mind that I have zero clue about what kind of money Eovaldi is going to get), but he really seems like a guy who is the glue of this team both on the mound and in the clubhouse. There's a reason that both Farrell and Cora both lean on him harder than they did on other pitchers, even when it seemed to not necessarily be the right move strategically.
I also just personally enjoy watching him pitch so I'm going to hope they keep him.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 31, 2018 9:14:12 GMT -5
Thinking you can rely on Wright is a mistake, it’s very high risk, but he’s cheap has great upside and this team needs cheap players now more than ever so it’s a risk that might be worth taking.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 31, 2018 9:38:37 GMT -5
Do you think it's likely that the Sox are going to count on both Pedroia and Wright's knee ? Same operation, same result, both expected back early this year neither actually made it. There is no track record for that particular procedure. Maybe Pomeranz will take a minor league contract. btw, I too see no reason to think the Sox won't be better next year. Pedroia alone makes up for a lot of what happened this year. Pedroia has said that he's certain he'll be OK with another winter of work. Wright did make it back for a good chunk of the year before a pair of progressively lesser flare-ups, and he was close to being ready to go this October. I've never heard of a knee injury costing any athlete two full years. I do think Pomeranz on a ml deal is possible. And I agree that they project to be better next year. If you exclude catcher framing and pitch-calling, they won 108 games while being below replacement level at C, 2B, and 3B, to the tune of -2.0 bWAR. That's kind of scary for the opposition, because it's easy to see them picking up 8 wins there.
I love Pedroia and think this team will be a couple to 3 wins better with a healthy Pedroia playing 125 or more games. However, last spring he said he was "ready to go" repeatedly. The Sox took a careful approach and then he came back and was gone after 3 games. I truly hope he and Wright come back healthy, because that greatly improves the team and their options. But I don't know if I was a GM if I would count on either unless I had significant inside knowledge with regard to the medicals.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 31, 2018 9:42:39 GMT -5
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Oct 31, 2018 9:54:30 GMT -5
Even if he needed surgery and was out for the year, I think the option is a no-brainer at $15M (I think $12M AAV) to get a jump on rehab and figure out where he is heading into free agency.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 31, 2018 11:13:25 GMT -5
I think there's zero chance they bring back Kimbrel, except on a 1-year deal (e.g., accepted QO).
They need to be under the $208 tax limit in 2020 to reset the penalty.
It turns out that if they let Kimbrel go, they will have exactly $100M to pay for all of the following:
New contracts for:
Bogaerts Sale (Holt) Eovaldi (Kelly) (Pearce)
Two years of arbitration raises for:
Betts (up from 10.5; walk year) Bradley (up from 6.1; walk year) Rodriguez (up from 2.375) Wright (up from 1.1) Leon (up from 1.95; walk year)
Benintendi (1st year) Barnes (year 2) Devers (possible super 2)
random possible others
It looks tough, tough enough that trading Bradley in his walk year may be necessary (and a good idea*). Adding $15+ more of AAV for Kimbrel when it's unclear we won't have someone as good or better for much less money makes little or no sense.
Note that if they do this, the next time they have to reset the tax, for 2023, Price's $31.5M is off the books. (JDM's $22M, too, but I expect an extension to be signed for those years.) They'll need that to pay Mookie what he's worth starting in 2021.
*If Holt's hitting transformation proves to be for real, he can be resigned and start 120 games, Tony Phillips-style, and allow folks to rotate into DH. Mookie goes to CF and JDM gets a lot of OF time. Alternately, Porcello and/or Swihart et al get traded for a guy who can join the OF at that point, or Chavis hits well enough that he can become a regular. Again, they have to trade guys in their walk year whenever there is an in-house solution that's not a big downgrade.
Eovaldi has had two tommy johns, JD and Bogaerts are Boras clients and Sale is a major injury risk. I am not sure how they will decide to allocate their money but I think Betts would be the one I'd prioritize spending the money on. Possibly Bogaerts depending on how much he costs, he is so talented and seems pretty durable, even though he'll cost a lot. Porcello has been a horse but he has a lot of mileage on his arm and he has some down years. I am not sure where we go with our pitching staff... if we let Porcello and Sale go we'll have ERod, Price, Johnson, Wright going into the 2020 season. Trading from the farm for another Ace and then signing a second tier guy may make more sense depending on how much Porcello costs.
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Post by dmaineah on Oct 31, 2018 11:22:31 GMT -5
Should be a short off season for the Sox. Re sign Kimbrel (3 yrs $45m) Kelly (2 yrs $10m with a team option) & Pearce (1 year $6m with a team option). Offer Pomeranz a 1 year deal for $5m with escalators/bonuses, if he doesn't take it let him walk. Trade JBJ for Wheeler and buy out his last arbitration year and give him a total of 4 years $52m. All this should be done by Xmas. Everybody else goes through the arbitration process; Wright, Holt, Workman, Bogaerts, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Swihart, E Rod, Smith, Leon, Thornburg.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 31, 2018 11:24:48 GMT -5
Should be a short off season for the Sox. Re sign Kimbrel (3 yrs $45m) Kelly (2 yrs $10m with a team option) & Pearce (1 year $6m with a team option). Offer Pomeranz a 1 year deal for $5m with escalators/bonuses, if he doesn't take it let him walk. Trade JBJ for Wheeler and buy out his last arbitration year and give him a total of 4 years $72m. Everybody else goes through the arbitration process; Wright, Holt, Workman, Bogaerts, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Swihart, E Rod, Smith, Leon, Thornburg. Do you think that Eovaldi deserved his playoff roster spot now?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 31, 2018 11:26:10 GMT -5
Should be a short off season for the Sox. Re sign Kimbrel (3 yrs $45m) Kelly (2 yrs $10m with a team option) & Pearce (1 year $6m with a team option). Offer Pomeranz a 1 year deal for $5m with escalators/bonuses, if he doesn't take it let him walk. Trade JBJ for Wheeler and buy out his last arbitration year and give him a total of 4 years $72m. Everybody else goes through the arbitration process; Wright, Holt, Workman, Bogaerts, Betts, Hembree, Barnes, Swihart, E Rod, Smith, Leon, Thornburg. Oh, good. I was worried you wouldn't be able to figure out who to trade JBJ for. What is with you? The guy gives them gold glove defense. The Sox have the best outfield defense in baseball hands down and JBJ made changes that should allow for more consistent offense, which he did last season - and you want to dump him for some often injured pitcher. The Sox might have to deal JBJ come 2020 but doing now would be quite foolish.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 31, 2018 11:32:03 GMT -5
I find it really hard to be rational about Rick Porcello. He's been good, had the one outstanding season, and might be the captain of the team if such a thing existed. I can kind of see the arguments for trading him IF they keep Eovaldi (keeping in mind that I have zero clue about what kind of money Eovaldi is going to get), but he really seems like a guy who is the glue of this team both on the mound and in the clubhouse. There's a reason that both Farrell and Cora both lean on him harder than they did on other pitchers, even when it seemed to not necessarily be the right move strategically. I also just personally enjoy watching him pitch so I'm going to hope they keep him. Didn't we do this already with Bronson Arroyo? Don't trade the durable boring bulk innings guy right after you rode all your other pitchers into the ground during your championship run. Porcello is as good a bet to make 30+ starts next year as anyone, and with the offense this team has, they'll win a bunch of those. No need to overthink it.
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dd
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Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Oct 31, 2018 11:40:25 GMT -5
Why does everyone on this forum obsess about trading players away who are keys to the team such as Sale, Porcello, JBJ? I get this is a prospect fourm but the idea is to win. We have a window now. We should be adding not subtracting. The Sox just won a world series. The pressure is off to win imo. Unless John Henry wants to maximize before he sells soon, it might be time to maximize on a retool period before free agency catches up with the Sox and they can't do such a thing in 2019. Maybe. They don't think so in NY!
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 31, 2018 11:48:35 GMT -5
Trade Porcello for Goldschmidt, Bradley for Wheeler.... c'mon man.
Idk what is up with this.
We have a good SP and a good CF to play next year. Neither cost too much and both are on short term deals. They are ideal players for this team. We will need both.
Our OF defense is such a huge factor, you all saw it throughout the playoffs. Porcello was good, pitched in the pen and started.
I want Pearce, Eovaldi and Kelly back for sure.
Kimbrel if he takes a team friendly deal and Pomeranz maybe. I think Price and Nunez will be back.
If Kimbrel is gone, I'd be ok going after Robertson or Britton. I would like to see only two of Vazquez, Leon and Swihart next year, preferring to keep Leon and trading one of the other two.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 31, 2018 11:56:02 GMT -5
Pedroia has said that he's certain he'll be OK with another winter of work. Wright did make it back for a good chunk of the year before a pair of progressively lesser flare-ups, and he was close to being ready to go this October. I've never heard of a knee injury costing any athlete two full years. I do think Pomeranz on a ml deal is possible. And I agree that they project to be better next year. If you exclude catcher framing and pitch-calling, they won 108 games while being below replacement level at C, 2B, and 3B, to the tune of -2.0 bWAR. That's kind of scary for the opposition, because it's easy to see them picking up 8 wins there.
I love Pedroia and think this team will be a couple to 3 wins better with a healthy Pedroia playing 125 or more games. However, last spring he said he was "ready to go" repeatedly. The Sox took a careful approach and then he came back and was gone after 3 games. I truly hope he and Wright come back healthy, because that greatly improves the team and their options. But I don't know if I was a GM if I would count on either unless I had significant inside knowledge with regard to the medicals. 108W with less than average production at C, 2B and 3B is not only scary for the competition but should be 🎶 music 🎵 to our ears. Pedroia will resolve 2B. Holt, Lin, and a healthy Marco and Quiroz will help. We will know about Pedey’s knee in ST, and can compensate there if necessary. In either case, 2B should be an asset in 2019. As should 3B with a maturing Devers backed by a healthy Nunez plus Lin, Holt, Marco, Quiroz and maybe Chavis. Above average. Deep. I have no clue about C offense other than CV’s postseason performance, but defense was never a problem. Would the pitchers prefer Grandal, Ramos, Realmuto? They are available. DDo will know. Sale and Price are back as confident champions, as are Porcello, ERod, Wright, Johnson, Velasquez. Maybe a healthy, rested Pom. Other good SP’s are available, but Eovaldi fits here so nicely. Boy, could he make a difference for a full year or three+. The potential WS effect on the Pitching staff may be offset by the relatively few IP this season. This Rotation is plenty scary. Could a full year of MM and Pearce hit 25-30HR/35-2B? Another upgrade!!! Do we really expect serious negative regression from Betts, Beni, Bogey, Bradley, JDM? Anyone really worried about this Bullpen? I am looking forward to February to see what Smith, Thornburg, Lakins, Feltman might add to this awesome group. I see no reason why this awesome team won’t easily improve enough to go all in again. This is not the time to rebuild or re-tool. I like Eric’s phrase “small dynasty”. Why not?
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Oct 31, 2018 12:06:22 GMT -5
QO to Kimbrel to start with. He'll sign for 3 plus years, but not with us. We will need to sign a dependable RP obviously, but who? It should be another interesting off-season.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 31, 2018 12:20:32 GMT -5
Kind of a bummer they only get a pick after the 4th round for the QO guys now, thats a far cry from the sandwich picks they used to get.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2018 13:04:26 GMT -5
I don't think you hate Porcello or Bradley, nor have I seen anyone else imply you do. Chill man. You just recomend trading them, as do a few others. I simply disagree in that logic. I think we have a chance to win it all again next year and short of the Sox completely falling apart, they should keep those two. If the Sox are trading good players away, my point is that Sale would bring back the most in return, but sure Porcello and Bradley can certainly bring back something too. It all depends on what we are doing. If we are trying to win this year and save money next year, keep Porcello and let him walk after the year. Perhaps Porcello gets a new deal and Sale gets traded because he wants Price money and years? After 2019, there are some very tough choices, I don't think trading Porcello this year would bring in equal value to help us win in 2019. He is more valuable to this team for 2019, than what we would receive in a trade for him, in my humble opinion. I'm chill, and yes people have implied that in the past. Until you know what could be offered for Porcello or JBJ, you can't possibly make a definitive yes or no call on whether the Sox should keep him. That's the whole point. It's not up to logic at this point. It's up to chance and circumstance in the trade market to dictate whether they stay or not.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 31, 2018 13:06:47 GMT -5
I don't think you hate Porcello or Bradley, nor have I seen anyone else imply you do. Chill man. You just recomend trading them, as do a few others. I simply disagree in that logic. I think we have a chance to win it all again next year and short of the Sox completely falling apart, they should keep those two. If the Sox are trading good players away, my point is that Sale would bring back the most in return, but sure Porcello and Bradley can certainly bring back something too. It all depends on what we are doing. If we are trying to win this year and save money next year, keep Porcello and let him walk after the year. Perhaps Porcello gets a new deal and Sale gets traded because he wants Price money and years? After 2019, there are some very tough choices, I don't think trading Porcello this year would bring in equal value to help us win in 2019. He is more valuable to this team for 2019, than what we would receive in a trade for him, in my humble opinion. I'm chill, and yes people have implied that in the past. Until you know what could be offered for Porcello or JBJ, you can't possibly make a definitive yes or no call on whether the Sox should keep him. That's the whole point. It's not up to logic at this point. It's up to chance and circumstance in the trade market to dictate whether they stay or not. Haha, you can't possibly make any decisions on who to trade or not trade without knowing who is getting offered, yet you still want to trade Porcello without knowing who is getting offered? We're at the talking in circles phase already.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 31, 2018 13:07:02 GMT -5
I don't think you hate Porcello or Bradley, nor have I seen anyone else imply you do. Chill man. You just recomend trading them, as do a few others. I simply disagree in that logic. I think we have a chance to win it all again next year and short of the Sox completely falling apart, they should keep those two. If the Sox are trading good players away, my point is that Sale would bring back the most in return, but sure Porcello and Bradley can certainly bring back something too. It all depends on what we are doing. If we are trying to win this year and save money next year, keep Porcello and let him walk after the year. Perhaps Porcello gets a new deal and Sale gets traded because he wants Price money and years? After 2019, there are some very tough choices, I don't think trading Porcello this year would bring in equal value to help us win in 2019. He is more valuable to this team for 2019, than what we would receive in a trade for him, in my humble opinion. I'm chill, and yes people have implied that in the past. Until you know what could be offered for Porcello or JBJ, you can't possibly make a definitive yes or no call on whether the Sox should keep him. That's the whole point. It's not up to logic at this point. It's up to chance and circumstance in the trade market to dictate whether they stay or not. Ok.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2018 13:10:14 GMT -5
I'm chill, and yes people have implied that in the past. Until you know what could be offered for Porcello or JBJ, you can't possibly make a definitive yes or no call on whether the Sox should keep him. That's the whole point. It's not up to logic at this point. It's up to chance and circumstance in the trade market to dictate whether they stay or not. Haha, you can't possibly make any decisions on who to trade or not trade without knowing who is getting offered, yet you still want to trade Porcello without knowing who is getting offered? We're at the talking in circles phase already. It's not circles. I'm not definitely saying the Sox should trade Porcello or JBJ, I'm thinking *IT MIGHT BE A GOOD IDEA* to shop them to see what you can get. Tell me for sure you can't get a good return first and make sure your name is Dave Dombrowski when you tell me. Then yeap, Porcello should stay.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 31, 2018 13:23:21 GMT -5
Sure. I agree to listen to offers to see what their value to other teams may be, on every single player really, but unless they are blowing us away, don't trade them two you recommended we trade, or anyone else. You don't trade players just because.
I, personally, don't think any team ready to compete for a championship in 2019 (thats who would be interested in those two) will trade away any of their core good controllable players for them. Also, dealing them would strengthen the competition, no? They are good players and valuable to the Red Sox.
I guess if a team offers a cost controlled young pitcher or CF, who is only slightly less effective than either of them and has 4/5 more years of control, you consider the offer, but the counter to that is: why don't that team just keep that good young player? Plus, we know Porcello and JBJ pretty well. They seem like great teammates, great clubhouse guys and good people overall. They are great representatives of this organization....
Also.... Signing Eovaldi and trading Porcello seems odd to me.... I want both.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2018 13:34:21 GMT -5
The reason why I think they will be shopping Porcello and JBJ is because they both will be 30 by the time their contracts and control expire.
There's a really good chance that both these players aren't as good as they once were when they hit their decline. Both were really good in their 20's as players for the most part, but I would have a hard time seeing it in their 30's.
I hope JBJ and Porcello are the ones that get left out with future contract extensions. You can debate the same thing for Sale too and his injury history on whether it's a good idea to extend him when he's starting to decline via injuries and durability wise.
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Post by h11233 on Oct 31, 2018 13:43:02 GMT -5
I think Price choosing to stay means Eovaldi is gone, unless he unexpectedly takes a massive discount to stay... and I'm fine with that.
This rotation is deep, but Sale, Price, Eduardo, and Wright all have health related questions. Taking on another high dollar health risk would be a mistake.
That's the nature of the business. If he does go, he's still a Red Sox legend.
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