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The Red Sox Offseason Thread: Who do you want for 2019?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 30, 2018 17:13:18 GMT -5
All it takes is more than one team to create a bidding war. That's when players get overpaid. Notably that didn't happen much last year.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 30, 2018 17:16:11 GMT -5
All it takes is more than one team to create a bidding war. That's when players get overpaid. Notably that didn't happen much last year. Maybe teams finally got smart enough to realize that winning the bidding war actually means you lose. But there will be a lot more teams spending this year so I expect more dumb contracts than last season.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 30, 2018 17:48:01 GMT -5
Bye Nate nice knowing you. That’s way too much. He had a great post season but I’m not paying for that. His strikeout rate is too low for his stuff to make that kind of investment on speculation. Here's the thing, if there's an article with some rando anonymous executive who throws out a potential contract for a guy that seems way too high... it's probably way too high. I just don't see the track record to justify that contract, and yes he was amazing in the postseason but honestly I think most modern front offices are more likely to ding him for the stress on his arm than credit him for the heroics. We will see, but I still don't understand why this dude needs to get paid more than Rich Hill. Really? He's way younger, more proven, and has had less injury issues than Rich Hill. Which is saying something. I think that Hill contract proves how crazy contracts can be. If Hill got that how doesn't he get at minimum another year? As for your next post about last year, its not very smart to act like last year was a normal year like you keep doing. It wasn't, it was a crazy likely fluke year for free agents. Any year besides last year is a lot better when projecting free agent contracts.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 30, 2018 18:07:18 GMT -5
Here's the thing, if there's an article with some rando anonymous executive who throws out a potential contract for a guy that seems way too high... it's probably way too high. I just don't see the track record to justify that contract, and yes he was amazing in the postseason but honestly I think most modern front offices are more likely to ding him for the stress on his arm than credit him for the heroics. We will see, but I still don't understand why this dude needs to get paid more than Rich Hill. Really? He's way younger, more proven, and has had less injury issues than Rich Hill. Which is saying something. I think that Hill contract proves how crazy contracts can be. If Hill got that how doesn't he get at minimum another year? As for your next post about last year, its not very smart to act like last year was a normal year like you keep doing. It wasn't, it was a crazy likely fluke year for free agents. Any year besides last year is a lot better when projecting free agent contracts. What exactly is Eovaldi’s track record?
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 30, 2018 18:08:36 GMT -5
One thing to keep in mind is this team is up to their ears in money. They are probably between 210-220m in contracts once you factor in arbitration raises before they resign or sign any free agents.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 30, 2018 18:49:33 GMT -5
Why do you keep saying Porcello and trade together? Honestly, I do not understand where you are getting it from... the Red Sox cannot afford to trade him. For what exactly? We need him in the rotation. The lineup is pretty set. We may need a reliever, but has Porcello not proved his worth? What reliver is he worth trading for? Better yet, who is taking one year of Porcello for a top prospect or player? Keep him. And JBJ. Mainly because it makes a lot of sense! Thinking long-term and not just about building super teams. Getting something for him rather than letting him walk for nothing. Giving you money to sign Evoldi or someone else. They idea that Porcello is off limits is what I don't get, especially on a team that has Sale, Price, ERod, Wright, and everyone wants Evoldi back. Nevermind a bunch of other guys like Johnson that a bunch of teams would love to have as their 5th starter. It all depends what Porcello value is and I can see some teams valuing do to a short low risk one year deal. You certainly don't give him away, yet it isn't crazy if you can get a good return to trade him either. So many moving parts and so many very good ways to build a team. I definitely don't agree bud. It makes zero sense to me unless we completely fall apart and are out of the race.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 30, 2018 19:04:27 GMT -5
Really? He's way younger, more proven, and has had less injury issues than Rich Hill. Which is saying something. I think that Hill contract proves how crazy contracts can be. If Hill got that how doesn't he get at minimum another year? As for your next post about last year, its not very smart to act like last year was a normal year like you keep doing. It wasn't, it was a crazy likely fluke year for free agents. Any year besides last year is a lot better when projecting free agent contracts. What exactly is Eovaldi’s track record? Compared to Hill his track record is better. He's made 20 starts his last 4th healthy years, 4/5 years. Hill has done that twice 10 years a part. Eovaldi has more career bwars in a lot less years. Eovaldi looked stronger than ever in this year making 22 starts than two more in the post season. Even in Hills breakout year, he missed a bunch of games. Overall they are both horrible, but I can get behind Eovaldi a lot more than I could Hill and I think a bunch of teams will also. I want no part of him on a huge deal, way too much risk for me. Yet I can see him getting it.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 30, 2018 19:20:43 GMT -5
Mainly because it makes a lot of sense! Thinking long-term and not just about building super teams. Getting something for him rather than letting him walk for nothing. Giving you money to sign Evoldi or someone else. They idea that Porcello is off limits is what I don't get, especially on a team that has Sale, Price, ERod, Wright, and everyone wants Evoldi back. Nevermind a bunch of other guys like Johnson that a bunch of teams would love to have as their 5th starter. It all depends what Porcello value is and I can see some teams valuing do to a short low risk one year deal. You certainly don't give him away, yet it isn't crazy if you can get a good return to trade him either. So many moving parts and so many very good ways to build a team. I definitely don't agree bud. It makes zero sense to me unless we completely fall apart and are out of the race. Trading Porcello makes sense because of his money. Plain and simple this team needs to either not care about the “cap” or maneuver around it. But yes, money being no object then trading Porcello doesn’t make a lot of sense. Money is an object tho.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 30, 2018 19:23:08 GMT -5
Regarding Eovaldi, his pre-2018 injury record won't, and shouldn't, hold much weight. There are just some situations where things unfold for a player perfectly to maximize his earnings potential, and this is one of them.
If there isn't 1 team, considering the dearth of starting pitching talent, that is willing to pay him 4-5 at 18-20/year, I will be shocked. I don't care how "smart" FO's have become.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 30, 2018 19:25:29 GMT -5
Why do you keep saying Porcello and trade together? Honestly, I do not understand where you are getting it from... the Red Sox cannot afford to trade him. For what exactly? We need him in the rotation. The lineup is pretty set. We may need a reliever, but has Porcello not proved his worth? What reliver is he worth trading for? Better yet, who is taking one year of Porcello for a top prospect or player? Keep him. And JBJ. Mainly because it makes a lot of sense! Thinking long-term and not just about building super teams. Getting something for him rather than letting him walk for nothing. Giving you money to sign Evoldi or someone else. They idea that Porcello is off limits is what I don't get, especially on a team that has Sale, Price, ERod, Wright, and everyone wants Evoldi back. Nevermind a bunch of other guys like Johnson that a bunch of teams would love to have as their 5th starter. It all depends what Porcello value is and I can see some teams valuing do to a short low risk one year deal. You certainly don't give him away, yet it isn't crazy if you can get a good return to trade him either. So many moving parts and so many very good ways to build a team. I agree 100%. Porcello certainly has a particular, significant value to this team. And on a championship club, there’s perhaps an additional value to certainty. But that shouldn’t make him off-limits. If, for example, the Sox could trade a Porcello to a presumptive contender like Milwaukee that needs starting pitching, and get a quality prospect and a lottery ticket or two in return, those players along with pieces fromthe current team/minors could be flipped for a young cost-controlled starter who might be *currently* a slight step down from Porcello, but who has upside and control at low cost. That trick would be more possible if they could identify a pitcher like pre-breakout Marquez. Or, theoretically, they could pursue an upgrade impending FA like Paxton who could potentially be extended. Or, perhaps they take a hit on the pitching side by trading Porcello and packaging the return along with a guy like Chavis for Goldschmidt. If they sign Eovaldi, that gives them Sale-Price-Eovaldi-Rodriguez-Wright-Johnson-Velasquez-Shawaryn. Maybe they pry Allard or Wright or someone else from Atlanta to serve as a 4/5/6, and who could probably serve to replace roughly half of Porcello’s production. But by improving their 1b situation by getting Goldschmidt, they’re more than making up the 1-2 win loss at SP with 3-4 at 1b. The compensatory pick they’d receive for Goldy effectively replaces some of the talent lost to acquire Allard/Wright/whomever. But it still improves the team overall and probably results in a net salary reduction, while giving them a cost-controller serviceable starter down the road. As you say, lots of moving parts. If they’re going to prolong their window, they’re going to need to make some painful, and somewhat risky, decisions to do so. Just gotta trust Dombrowski’s ability to evaluate MLB talent.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 30, 2018 19:53:44 GMT -5
The Sox can replace Porcello in the rotation with Eovaldi and Wright. Who said they would be trading him for a reliever? Maybe it's a major league ready prospect or more. There is a lot of teams that can use a Porcello too and would have the room to extend him. It's VERY debatable if the Sox have future room to extend Porcello. So better to get out ahead and trade him while he's worth something instead of getting just a 4th round pick for him. Same goes for Sale, huh? This goes one of two ways. They begin the rebuild/retool right now or they go all out next year for another championship. In the latter scenario, they won't trade Porcello. They'd probably have to trade for him or someone like him at the trade deadline if they got rid of him. It's debatable for Sale yeah. If the Nationals are offering say Victor Robles for Sale, then I mean, you have to think about it. Trading Sale is a tougher move though. It's hard to replace that kind of talent level at the top of a rotation, but he is turning 30 soon, so there's that.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 30, 2018 20:18:44 GMT -5
Same goes for Sale, huh? This goes one of two ways. They begin the rebuild/retool right now or they go all out next year for another championship. In the latter scenario, they won't trade Porcello. They'd probably have to trade for him or someone like him at the trade deadline if they got rid of him. It's debatable for Sale yeah. If the Nationals are offering say Victor Robles for Sale, then I mean, you have to think about it. Trading Sale is a tougher move though. It's hard to replace that kind of talent level at the top of a rotation, but he is turning 30 soon, so there's that. I’m interested to see if Sale’s injury was kn fact severe tendenitis/excuse they gave or if it’s something more serious. Elbows they can generally fix but shoulders are more difficult. If he needs surgery do they pick up the option or let him go? Something to consider/watch.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 30, 2018 20:33:42 GMT -5
First, I definitely don't think Porcello is untouchable. Yeah... I guess if a team blows us away with an offer you consider trading him, or the rest of the rotation, so in that view, I agree.
We can bring back a great team next year and decide after the year to resign Porcello. It's a one year deal, which is what we want.
Sale has just as much of a chance as not being in Boston after 2019.
We could have 35 year old Price and an often injured Rodriguez as the top pitchers. Eovaldi may not be back. Wright has one good year EVER on his resume, along with being in his late 30s and dealing with injuries. Johnson is your typical 5th/6th, long relief guy.
We are familiar with Porcello and he gives us innings and is never hurt. You don't trade pitchers we can count on like that.
We can agree to disagree as many seem to think trading him is a great idea, I cannot see that logic. We can make the money work for next year. After 2019, who knows who will still be here....
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Post by bruinsfan94 on Oct 30, 2018 20:42:59 GMT -5
Why does everyone on this forum obsess about trading players away who are keys to the team such as Sale, Porcello, JBJ? I get this is a prospect fourm but the idea is to win. We have a window now. We should be adding not subtracting.
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Post by telson13 on Oct 30, 2018 21:12:45 GMT -5
My preferences for this offseason: Let Kimbrel walk, unless he’s somehow willing to take a performance-incentive-laden deal that tops out in the 4/55 range. Even that might be rich. I’d be very wary of paying big bucks for an aging reliever coming off a relatively down year. I’d prefer that they look into a few value plays and insert Barnes as the closer, or maybe see if they can secure Britton for 3/30. I think with Lakins very close, Feltman not far off, and having found Brasier, they’re best served by trying to save money on what is the riskiest aspect of a team. They may also have guys in Shawaryn and Darwinzon who could be broken in to MLB in relief roles and then subsequently moved back to starting. Kimbrel’s performance this year is not hard to replicate, and spending $15M annually to do so, especially for multiple years, is folly. Jeurys Familia or Adam Ottavino could probably provide similar production at 70% of the cost or less. Cora’s use of the “rover” also demonstrates the redundancy of having a ton of high-end relievers just for the postseason.
I’d like to see them sign Eovaldi. There’s obviously a bunch of caveats to that, as we’ve discussed at length. My hope is that he’s enticed to stay with this team over simply seeking the biggest deal. I’d top out around $4/56M. He has clear value vs NY, and he reasonably has #2 upside. But given his history, he’s more like a 4. So we’ll see.
I’d like to see them get creative if they sign Eovaldi, and trade Porcello. Package the return for a buy-low formerly high-rated young starter who’s had some MLB struggles but is a fair bet to be a serviceable fifth starter. I don’t see Colorado wanting to trade Jon Gray, for instance, but he’s the sort of look into. It might take a relative overpay, but if they got a top-60-75 prospect back for Porcello, I think that player, Chavis, and 2-3 more players from the Sox’s top 10-15 might do it. Atlanta, with Gohara, Wright, et al might be another option, although none are really in the class of Gray. Basically, if they sign Eovaldi and can trade for a current 1-WAR pitcher with 3-4 upside and multiple control years, they stay salary neutral but gain control years and potential excess value down the road.
Alternatively sign Eovaldi and trade Porcello, then flip the return and an additional player or two for Goldschmidt. That shores up a clear team weakness, lengthens the offense, improves INF defense, and nets then a comp pick to make up for the talent lost in acquiring him. They’d probably simultaneously need to acquire a 4/5 starter prospect like Kolby Allard, although I don’t imagine the cost being too high. They could also go the route of looking for a few FA bargain starters to serve as depth; idk what sort of deal Pomeranz is going to get, but he’s someone to look at, at least. He had an awful year, but on a 1-year pillow contract he does offer upside, since he’s previously been a good-3/low-end 2. Goldschmidt adds salary, so my preference is that they look young for SP depth. But he clearly makes the team better, and on balance, he (14.5)and Eovaldi at $15M AAV would be $29.5M versus $20M for Porcello. That $9.5M could be saved elsewhere, and is offset by dropping of Pomeranz’s salary.
Decline Nunez’s option. This is an easy one. Lin provides better defense, with more versatility, at essentially zero cost (saving $3.5M), and he needs MLB playing time. He’s 24, still has upside, provides insurance for Bogey, needs to be around JDM and MLB caliber coaching/conditioning, and he’s got nothing left to prove in the minors. He put up a 129 wRC+ in AAA this year in 2/3 of a season, and he’s a career .256/.348/.380 with a 96 wRC+ in MLB. He’s basically exactly as good as Nunez is offensively (career 93 wRC+), but he’s got significantly more upside given his youth, and he saves $3.5M at a time when every bit counts, a lot.
If they traded for Goldschmidt, obviously they’d need to look at moving Moreland. If not, I’d like to see them re-sign Steve Pearce. He’s 35 and a short-end platoon player, and made $1.4M last year. I don’t think he’s going to get offered much more on the open market, so I’d try to bring him back on a deal similar to Nunez’s, maybe $2.5M with a $3.5M mutual option. He provides depth in the OF as well, and fits in on this team perfectly. He provides a stopgap for Chavis to get up to speed, too.
There’s no guarantee on Pedroia coming back, but his contract and potential to be a 2.5-3.5 win player with excellent defense suggest a clear area of internal upgrade. With Holt’s newfound plate approach, and Lin (not to mention Hernandez, if he makes it back), there’s no need to keep either Nunez or Kinsler. I see this as a likely source of improvement on the 2019 iteration. Holt/Lin in Pedroia’s absence should be *clearly* better than the 2018 2b production, and with Pedroia back at even 75%, its a 2-win upgrade. Lin also provides sufficient 3b depth (as does Holt, and maybe Chavis), for Devers, who I think will be substantially better next year. Again, Nunez and Kinsler are redundant with their current depth, and letting both go saves about $4M total. I think Devers should be good for 2.5 WAR next year, potentially more. That’s another 1-2 win upgrade.
Rework JDM’s contract. Maybe tack on a mutual option year or two, eliminate the player options, and add some AAV (maybe $2M) along with some deferred money. I’ve gotta think he’d like to stay, and I don’t think it’ll be at huge cost. His all-fields approach ages well and I think he makes it into his late-30s providing solid production.
I’d still lean towards trading Christian Vazquez. He had a pretty good postseason, but I really think they need to get Swihart regular catching duty. It saves about $4M annually. I’d target minor league return, because 1) they’re not getting a *quality* reliever back, which is their one big need, and 2) they need salary flexibility. If they COULD manage to find a taker who would do something akin to Miley-Smith, I’d go for it. But I think re-stocking the farm should be of primacy. They need cheap control years as the cheap control they have of their core runs out.
I’d re-sign Kelly depending on AAV. He’s a known commodity with stretches of dominance and some of his issues (including SwStr rate) have improved over time. But, as always, it depends on cost. He’s not someone I’d want to spend more than 3/13 or so on.
No specifics, but I think they need to VERY strongly seek out failed minor league starters/AAAA types who have the stuff to convert to relief. Hoard them, and see who shakes out. There are better ways to approach acquiring quality relievers than paying one $6-8M annually over 3 years. Alternatively, look to a rebuilding team like the Rangers and make a push for a guy like Jose Leclerc, who has control years, terrific stuff, but is not especially valuable on a bad team. Jace Fry of the White Sox underperformed his peripherals...he might come relatively cheaply given their current situation.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2018 0:58:31 GMT -5
*Decline Nunez’s option*
Nunez has a player option and it's out of the Sox hands. The Sox can trade his 5 million dollar salary if they eat money. I probably agree this is a good move though.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 31, 2018 1:32:14 GMT -5
You keep saying that Porcello will be traded but I think it's highly unlikely. He's valuable, reasonably priced and is the starter most likely to give us innings.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 31, 2018 1:36:58 GMT -5
*Decline Nunez’s option* Nunez has a player option and it's out of the Sox hands. The Sox can trade his 5 million dollar salary if they eat money. I probably agree this is a good move though. I believe the player option is $4m for 2019 and the Sox can still buy out for $2m. At $4m, he's probably a tradeable commodity, especially if they eat the $2m that it would have cost them to buy him out.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 31, 2018 1:50:38 GMT -5
*Decline Nunez’s option* Nunez has a player option and it's out of the Sox hands. The Sox can trade his 5 million dollar salary if they eat money. I probably agree this is a good move though. I believe the player option is $4m for 2019 and the Sox can still buy out for $2m. At $4m, he's probably a tradeable commodity, especially if they eat the $2m that it would have cost them to buy him out. Player option only Phil. He can decline for 2 million in his pocket, not the Sox. I'm pretty sure the option is for 5 million instead of 4 million, but we are splitting hairs here.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 31, 2018 1:54:17 GMT -5
I believe the player option is $4m for 2019 and the Sox can still buy out for $2m. At $4m, he's probably a tradeable commodity, especially if they eat the $2m that it would have cost them to buy him out. Player option only Phil. He can decline for 2 million in his pocket, not the Sox. I'm pretty sure the option is for 5 million instead of 4 million, but we are splitting hairs here. That's not what this says: Nunez’s contract details reportedly include a minimum $6 million in guaranteed salary ($4 million in 2018, with a $2 million buyout in 2019). The one-year deal also carries a player option for next season, which could potentially up the deal to $8 million www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2018/02/18/the-red-sox-re-signed-eduardo-nunez-on-a-one-year-contract
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2018 2:12:58 GMT -5
I think one of the most obvious things to do is re-sign Eovaldi (after checking to make sue he didn't damage himself, of course) and trade Porcello for prospects to help rebuild a weak farm system. Let's also assume that Sale's shoulder will be 100% again by next April, and that they've learned even more about keeping him healthy all year (I like the idea of using a 6-man rotation for certain stretches).
Also, if you don't believe that Steven Wright is a better pitcher than Rick Porcello right now despite the overwhelming evidence to that point, you're unlikely to buy this argument, so you might want to skip it.
Finally, I'm going to use ERA here, which is approximate and lazy, but only because I think the conclusion is not going to depend on using something more accurate.
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Let's resign Nate and trade Rick and assume that Sale, Price, and E-Rod miss 16 starts again between them, out of 98 total chances. Which is probably pessimistic; E-Rod missed 1 with a preexisting condition and 7 with a freak ankle injury.
You have 44 starts you need to replace: 33 by Porcello and 11 by Drew Pomeranz. (I bet you forgot about those.)
They combined for 242.2 IP and a 4.71 ERA.
If Eovaldi and Steven Wright are 100% healthy, they can start 64 games. Last year they combined for 14 healthy starts, 71.1 IP, and a 2.40 ERA.
If the pair can make 44 + 14 starts between them, which is to say, if they can make 58 of their 64 starts and miss 6 with injuries, you've replaced all of Porcello's starts (and Pomeranz's) and you've hugely upgraded your rotation. They're not going to put up 2.40, but something in the mid-3.00's seems very doable.
(What I'm doing here is reminding you that the team is very likely to be better next year because Steven Wright is very likely the guy who gets Drew Pomeranz's 11 GS and 6.31 ERA. That gives you some extra leeway in any assessment of the impact of trading Porcello on the team's bottom-line win total.)
What happens if Eovaldi and Wright fall short of 58 starts, and/or if the other three miss more than 16? Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez both had better ERA's than Rick Porcello, too (each 4.15 as starters compared to Porcello's 4.28). They started 13 and 8 games respectively.
It's really hard to see a scenario where keeping Rick Porcello in order to banish Steven Wright to the bullpen once again makes the rotation better than worse. Wright has been so good whenever he's been healthy for three years now, you have to give him a chance to see if he's a Niekro.
And given Johnson and Velazquez as #6 and #7 starters, it's really hard to see a scenario that doesn't involve a major unexpected injury or performance collapse where you run out of starting pitching depth. At no time last year did the Red Sox need to go beyond Johnson and Velazquez. (The period where they were actually 7 and 8 because Pomeranz was still in the rotation and Wright was in the pen just lasted 3 starts, when everyone was healthy.) They only needed them both for 6 of the 33 rotation turns (although 3 of those times, they opted to give Pomeranz a final look instead of going with Velazquez).
Admittedly, the only reason they never really needed an 8th starter was because they traded for Eovaldi after Pomeranz crapped the bed, E-Rod got hurt freakishly, and they could see that Sale was about to need to go on the DL. But you know what? If something like that does happen again next year, they can just trade for next year's Eovaldi. It's not worth keeping Porcello, not getting what he could fetch, and downgrading the rotation to protect against a 25% or 35% chance of needing to add a starting pitcher because you've had three simultaneous injuries or collapses and there's no one you trust at Pawtucket.
Finally, getting 20 or so starts for Brian Johnson instead of 13 will very likely be good in the long run. This year he pitched like an MLB #3 starter. If he can establish himself as that, with 4 years of team control, that's real trade value, and you can hope that you have someone to replace him from out of the farm -- if not by the 2019 / 2020 winter, by the 2020 deadline.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 31, 2018 2:18:26 GMT -5
Do you think it's likely that the Sox are going to count on both Pedroia and Wright's knee ? Same operation, same result, both expected back early this year neither actually made it. There is no track record for that particular procedure.
Maybe Pomeranz will take a minor league contract.
btw, I too see no reason to think the Sox won't be better next year. Pedroia alone makes up for a lot of what happened this year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2018 3:35:20 GMT -5
I think there's zero chance they bring back Kimbrel, except on a 1-year deal (e.g., accepted QO).
They need to be under the $208 tax limit in 2020 to reset the penalty.
It turns out that if they let Kimbrel go, they will have exactly $100M to pay for all of the following:
New contracts for:
Bogaerts Sale (Holt) Eovaldi (Kelly) (Pearce)
Two years of arbitration raises for:
Betts (up from 10.5; walk year) Bradley (up from 6.1; walk year) Rodriguez (up from 2.375) Wright (up from 1.1) Leon (up from 1.95; walk year)
Benintendi (1st year) Barnes (year 2) Devers (possible super 2)
random possible others
It looks tough, tough enough that trading Bradley in his walk year may be necessary (and a good idea*). Adding $15+ more of AAV for Kimbrel when it's unclear we won't have someone as good or better for much less money makes little or no sense.
Note that if they do this, the next time they have to reset the tax, for 2023, Price's $31.5M is off the books. (JDM's $22M, too, but I expect an extension to be signed for those years.) They'll need that to pay Mookie what he's worth starting in 2021.
*If Holt's hitting transformation proves to be for real, he can be resigned and start 120 games, Tony Phillips-style, and allow folks to rotate into DH. Mookie goes to CF and JDM gets a lot of OF time. Alternately, Porcello and/or Swihart et al get traded for a guy who can join the OF at that point, or Chavis hits well enough that he can become a regular. Again, they have to trade guys in their walk year whenever there is an in-house solution that's not a big downgrade.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 31, 2018 3:53:56 GMT -5
Do you think it's likely that the Sox are going to count on both Pedroia and Wright's knee ? Same operation, same result, both expected back early this year neither actually made it. There is no track record for that particular procedure. Maybe Pomeranz will take a minor league contract. btw, I too see no reason to think the Sox won't be better next year. Pedroia alone makes up for a lot of what happened this year. Pedroia has said that he's certain he'll be OK with another winter of work. Wright did make it back for a good chunk of the year before a pair of progressively lesser flare-ups, and he was close to being ready to go this October. I've never heard of a knee injury costing any athlete two full years.
I do think Pomeranz on a ml deal is possible. And I agree that they project to be better next year. If you exclude catcher framing and pitch-calling, they won 108 games while being below replacement level at C, 2B, and 3B, to the tune of -2.0 bWAR. That's kind of scary for the opposition, because it's easy to see them picking up 8 wins there.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 31, 2018 4:02:40 GMT -5
It seems more likely that we will wait until spring to take care of the minor trade details. I can see several areas where we might be able to pick up prospects by trading away redundancy or else upgrade by trading a 2 for 1 (left handed power reliever for example). That and we will have a lot more info on the health of several players in addition to Pedroia and Wright. (Moreland, Nunez, Thornburg, Smith) including some in the on the cusp minors (Marco Hernandez, Maddox, Chavis).
I'm expecting a relatively uneventful off season.
ADD: The spring will also allow the Sox to get a good look at Darwinzon, Lakins and Feltman any one of which could be candidates to be called up to the Sox three weeks after opening day.
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