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Red Sox vs. Astros 2018 ALCS Gameday Thread
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2018 15:37:24 GMT -5
You either make your own effing luck or you overcome the bad luck - or you lose. That's what the Sox did in '04 (likely '07, although not much comes to mind) and in 2013 (although it seems like lady luck was on our side, they certainly overcame many obstacles). Patriots have been doing just this for 15 years. Agreed so much. And not to mention it's really petty to even bring up luck when one team thoroughly outplays the other. The Red Sox pitched better than the Astros, both bullpen and starters, and hit better than them too. Probably fielded better or it was at least very close. They weren't "lucky", the proper word there is "better". The article mentions Benintendi’s catch to end Game 4 as “luck.” Didn’t see any mention of Reddick’s catch to end the top of the 9th. I guess it’s only bad luck if it happens to the Astros.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 19, 2018 15:45:53 GMT -5
Nobody has accused Sheffield of being smart as far as I can tell. Nice to have some smart former players doing pre/post game analysis. Some aren't and some cannot get over their biases. I think Pedro is awesome (ortiz, too, I think, but I have seen much less of his stuff) without being a Sox homer. No mistake, he's still rooting for the Sox, but he's honest. Sheffield's an idiot (at least this little bit that I have seen). He's very anti-Red Sox but can't even give any good reasons when he's picking them to lose every game. Hey give the man his props, he's been right almost 32.75% of the time ETA, that's full season plus playoffs, much like some other non-Sox his playoff record is worse than his regualr season performance.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 19, 2018 16:06:05 GMT -5
If they win this year, in 2018, let’s just hope Henry doesn’t sell Mookie Betts in the offseason For a play nonetheless, to New York.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 19, 2018 17:02:32 GMT -5
You either make your own effing luck or you overcome the bad luck - or you lose. That's what the Sox did in '04 (likely '07, although not much comes to mind) and in 2013 (although it seems like lady luck was on our side, they certainly overcame many obstacles). Patriots have been doing just this for 15 years. Agreed so much. And not to mention it's really petty to even bring up luck when one team thoroughly outplays the other. The Red Sox pitched better than the Astros, both bullpen and starters, and hit better than them too. Probably fielded better or it was at least very close. They weren't "lucky", the proper word there is "better". Did anyone actually read the article? www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25024557/the-unlucky-legacy-2018-houston-astrosAlso, it's pretty funny to bring up the Patriots given some of the games they've lost and they way they've lost them. Luck exists and it matters, I feel like that shouldn't be a controversial statement.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 19, 2018 17:07:13 GMT -5
Agreed so much. And not to mention it's really petty to even bring up luck when one team thoroughly outplays the other. The Red Sox pitched better than the Astros, both bullpen and starters, and hit better than them too. Probably fielded better or it was at least very close. They weren't "lucky", the proper word there is "better". The article mentions Benintendi’s catch to end Game 4 as “luck.” Didn’t see any mention of Reddick’s catch to end the top of the 9th. I guess it’s only bad luck if it happens to the Astros. Guys I get that you're excited to be mad about things but seriously, calm down. This is not the hot take you're looking for.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 19, 2018 17:12:55 GMT -5
F espn. They never believed in this team even the last Sunday night game all there “experts” ranked the Sox last of all the American League playoff teams. Buster Olney has been trying to downplay this Sox team all year. They are all eating crow. Four more wins boys! And this will go down as one of the best teams in the history of the sport. ESPN and all there sour grape articles can’t take that away!!!!
In the CS, 10 had the Sox and 9 had the Astros, but you can see that 9 of 15 guys thought the Astros would play and win the CS, versus just 10 of 20 for the Sox, so they did have the Astros over the Sox in the CS if they faced each other. But everyone did. (Of the 12 stupid people who thought the Indians would beat the Astros, 6 had them wining the pennant.)
Of the 9 guys who picked the Astros to win the pennant, 8 had them winning the WS, while 7 of the 10 guys who picked the Sox had then winning.
So their experts had the Sox as the second best team in MLB after the Astros, which is actually informed sabermetric opinion; as a general rule regular-season "karma" such as hitting well with RISP has no predictive value in the post-season. It was wrong in the Sox case (more on why the Sox were the best team even if it was right, soon), but it's no way obvious that it's wrong.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Oct 19, 2018 17:20:58 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Oct 19, 2018 17:30:45 GMT -5
F espn. They never believed in this team even the last Sunday night game all there “experts” ranked the Sox last of all the American League playoff teams. Buster Olney has been trying to downplay this Sox team all year. They are all eating crow. Four more wins boys! And this will go down as one of the best teams in the history of the sport. ESPN and all there sour grape articles can’t take that away!!!!
In the CS, 10 had the Sox and 9 had the Astros, but you can see that 9 of 15 guys thought the Astros would play and win the CS, versus just 10 of 20 for the Sox, so they did have the Astros over the Sox in the CS if they faced each other. But everyone did. (Of the 12 stupid people who thought the Indians would beat the Astros, 6 had them wining the pennant.)
Of the 9 guys who picked the Astros to win the pennant, 8 had them winning the WS, while 7 of the 10 guys who picked the Sox had then winning.
So their experts had the Sox as the second best team in MLB after the Astros, which is actually informed sabermetric opinion; as a general rule regular-season "karma" such as hitting well with RISP has no predictive value in the post-season. It was wrong in the Sox case (more on why the Sox were the best team even if it was right, soon), but it's no way obvious that it's wrong.
As they were racking up 108 wins this season there was always a certain quality of "huh, how are they doing this? Clearly they're good, but how can they be this good?" And in the playoffs, they've just... kept doing the same thing. Hitting well in the big spots. Getting just the performances they needed exactly when they needed them, etc. So I'll be interested to see what you have to say about this...
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Smittyw
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Post by Smittyw on Oct 19, 2018 18:17:20 GMT -5
Imagine facing this team with the Sale of April-July and Mookie hitting like he did for 90% of the regular season.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Oct 19, 2018 19:54:52 GMT -5
F espn. They never believed in this team even the last Sunday night game all there “experts” ranked the Sox last of all the American League playoff teams. Buster Olney has been trying to downplay this Sox team all year. They are all eating crow. Four more wins boys! And this will go down as one of the best teams in the history of the sport. ESPN and all there sour grape articles can’t take that away!!!!
In the CS, 10 had the Sox and 9 had the Astros, but you can see that 9 of 15 guys thought the Astros would play and win the CS, versus just 10 of 20 for the Sox, so they did have the Astros over the Sox in the CS if they faced each other. But everyone did. (Of the 12 stupid people who thought the Indians would beat the Astros, 6 had them wining the pennant.)
Of the 9 guys who picked the Astros to win the pennant, 8 had them winning the WS, while 7 of the 10 guys who picked the Sox had then winning.
So their experts had the Sox as the second best team in MLB after the Astros, which is actually informed sabermetric opinion; as a general rule regular-season "karma" such as hitting well with RISP has no predictive value in the post-season. It was wrong in the Sox case (more on why the Sox were the best team even if it was right, soon), but it's no way obvious that it's wrong.
I didn’t mention the poll on espn.com. I was referring to the last Sunday night broadcast where they polled all there announcers and buster olney. Go back and watch it Sox vs Indians and someone asked how would u rank the 4 al playoff teams and Sox were last for every single one of them. And that astros article on espn is absolutely sour grapes. Or how bout the headline from a salty Astro fan “joe west is mvp of alcs” if Red Sox win series. That’s impartial and fair reporting by espn to put that as a headline?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 19, 2018 20:08:57 GMT -5
In the CS, 10 had the Sox and 9 had the Astros, but you can see that 9 of 15 guys thought the Astros would play and win the CS, versus just 10 of 20 for the Sox, so they did have the Astros over the Sox in the CS if they faced each other. But everyone did. (Of the 12 stupid people who thought the Indians would beat the Astros, 6 had them wining the pennant.)
Of the 9 guys who picked the Astros to win the pennant, 8 had them winning the WS, while 7 of the 10 guys who picked the Sox had then winning. So their experts had the Sox as the second best team in MLB after the Astros, which is actually informed sabermetric opinion; as a general rule regular-season "karma" such as hitting well with RISP has no predictive value in the post-season. It was wrong in the Sox case (more on why the Sox were the best team even if it was right, soon), but it's no way obvious that it's wrong.
I didn’t mention the poll on espn.com. I was referring to the last Sunday night broadcast where they polled all there announcers and buster olney. Go back and watch it Sox vs Indians and someone asked how would u rank the 4 al playoff teams and Sox were last for every single one of them. And that astros article on espn is absolutely sour grapes. Or how bout the headline from a salty Astro fan “joe west is mvp of alcs” if Red Sox win series. That’s impartial and fair reporting by espn to put that as a headline? That's... not even what "sour grapes" means. Edit: that was pedantic and probably not even correct so never mind. Here’s the thing, there’s basically two types of people in the world (maybe eleven, I don’t know). People who look at this series as definitive proof that the Red Sox were the better team and that the series could have gone no other way, and people who (correctly, if I’m being honest) think that these were two relatively evenly matched teams, the Astros were probably a little better just from a strict talent evaluation standpoint, and that if you played this series 100 times, the Red Sox win like 45 of those. The Astros were a great team, and there’s no reason this series had to go the way it did for them. They easily could have won had a few things broken their way. I don’t think saying that takes anything away from the greatness of the Red Sox either. Wouldn’t you rather say that they defeated a worthy opponent than some sort of doomed failteam?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 19, 2018 20:18:38 GMT -5
I want Miley so bad.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 19, 2018 21:29:00 GMT -5
I hope we don't have to keep throwing starters into the pen. It worked for us but it is also dangerous if the starter is going to be needed a day or 2 later. What is most encouraging about this team to me is the ability to score runs. Other teams were not pitching to Martinez or Mookie with much to hit but overall the others picked them up. The best thing about this team is the overall depth. That would seem to be one of the keys to our team's in recent history. The ability to survive injury losses and have a functioning roster in the playoffs and the depth of the lineup in producing runs. I think the Sox should use their starters if guys such as Workman show they can't get it done. IMO it's an effective strategy that should be used and imo it's why in part the Sox didn't go after other bullpen pitchers in the manner of urgency that some would have wanted. They expected 5 starters and maybe even Wright available. They did it last year too. Houston did it big time last year too. This is the type of strategy that should always be employed if other bullpen pitchers such as Workman are ineffective. OFC it would be great to get consistent length from all of the starters but if they don't pitch too many innings, then imo -- please use the starters. I don't thin we can trust Workman or Hembree and Kelly is day-to-day. It will be great to have Wright back. Now that I say that, he'll get bombed in all of his subsequent appearances. Houston used it last year extremely effectively and so far this year Sox have used it. It's an effective winning strategy. I have no problem using a 4th or 5th starter in that mode and if it's absolutely necessary it's an option but one could make a strong case it hurt Sale in one of his starts and Porcello in one of his. We were fortunate it didn't affect Price apparently. Overall I am of the theory that we could learn some things from how the Japanese pitcher's train, especially in preparing for the playoffs. Extra rest at this time of year can be counter productive and it may well be that the extra work for Price might have actually made him sharper. My point is that generally I'd try to keep[ important starters in their normal rotation or a day less rest. Assuming they are not Bob Gibson in his prime. Of course a top starter can be huge in closing out a series for examp[le but we should be cautious about taking these sorts of steps. The results could well have been disastrous.
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Post by soxjim on Oct 19, 2018 23:18:14 GMT -5
I think the Sox should use their starters if guys such as Workman show they can't get it done. IMO it's an effective strategy that should be used and imo it's why in part the Sox didn't go after other bullpen pitchers in the manner of urgency that some would have wanted. They expected 5 starters and maybe even Wright available. They did it last year too. Houston did it big time last year too. This is the type of strategy that should always be employed if other bullpen pitchers such as Workman are ineffective. OFC it would be great to get consistent length from all of the starters but if they don't pitch too many innings, then imo -- please use the starters. I don't thin we can trust Workman or Hembree and Kelly is day-to-day. It will be great to have Wright back. Now that I say that, he'll get bombed in all of his subsequent appearances. Houston used it last year extremely effectively and so far this year Sox have used it. It's an effective winning strategy. I have no problem using a 4th or 5th starter in that mode and if it's absolutely necessary it's an option but one could make a strong case it hurt Sale in one of his starts and Porcello in one of his. We were fortunate it didn't affect Price apparently. Overall I am of the theory that we could learn some things from how the Japanese pitcher's train, especially in preparing for the playoffs. Extra rest at this time of year can be counter productive and it may well be that the extra work for Price might have actually made him sharper. My point is that generally I'd try to keep[ important starters in their normal rotation or a day less rest. Assuming they are not Bob Gibson in his prime. Of course a top starter can be huge in closing out a series for examp[le but we should be cautious about taking these sorts of steps. The results could well have been disastrous. We can agree to disagree. Probably Sale. But 1st off Sale wasn't successful last year as a post season pitcher. The team that got him last year got him this year too. And with his injury, Sale already showed he wasn;t 100% even before his bullpen inning. He dropped to 91 just before the 1st Yank game. He got to 95 with the Yanks but I don't think you can assume a direct trend upward for every game when he doesn't pitch much from July to now. And if you have to sacrifice game 1 in order to win game 4, then so be it. iMo it was more important to close game 4 of a 5 game series. But yeah proably eh was affected. I think he can probably be most easily affected. But the Yanks didn't seem to hit him well. - SO imo use him! ANd imo the Japanese train isn't at play here. The Japanese train imo is the number of pitches not the number of appearances. When it comes to the playoffs I'm more inclined to want the stars pitch as much as they can. Not have the 5th starter thrown in and likely blow it. And while you mention look at Porcello's last start I say look at how he impacted three games before he had a clunker. Then look at his prior post season history. It was terrible. And you mention you'd use your number 4 starter for the bullpen. Well Porcello is the number 4 starter. And when W/S starts on Tuesday Porcello would have 10 days rest as a starter if not being used in the bullpen. That could be too much. I think it's great they are keeping him fresh. Last year Houston did it, why can't the Red Sox? What makes Houston so special that they can use their starters so much and the SOx can;t? We saw Lackey do it in 2013. We saw Price do it now. We've seen Porcello do 3 out of 4 games (possibly the 1 game affected him but it could be he's a number 4 starter and Houston is a good hitting team and they eventually got to a number 4 starter in their home ball park while the number 4 starter had a number 4 starter type of night. In other words, at the end of this season even with rest it was not unusual that Porcello got lit up. Look at his game log from July 13th to Sept 30th. I'm not sure you can assume his getting hit by the great Houston team was because he pitched in 3 other games.), and we've just seen Eovaldi do it. Sale is the only one that probably the one inning affected him. IMo the strength of the team when it comes to pitching is to continue to do this rather than rely on the last couple of guys in the Sox bullpen. The results could have been disastrous not using them. With no Porcello in games 1 and 4, and no Sale in game 4 vs the Yanks we could very well have been reading about the Yanks vs Houston. Their appearances were high leverage and now they both have lots of rest.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 20, 2018 1:12:01 GMT -5
I'm not saying you can't use any starter as a reliever. I'm saying I would do it very cautiously. If one or 2 starters ( # 4 or 5 ) are not scheduled for starts of course use them ( largely the Houston situation last year if I remember correctly for the most part at least ). We were throwing all our top starters in the pen, and actually used 3 of them in the pen and warmed up another for 2 innings the day before his start. All this was risky as heck and I think it likely hurt Sales and Porcello some in their starts but we will never know for sure will we? Interesting data from 538: fivethirtyeight.com/features/this-might-be-the-best-red-sox-world-series-team-yet/
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 20, 2018 1:31:51 GMT -5
Advance odds on the World Series are Sox -130 vs Dodgers and -210 vs. the Brewers. So yeah we probably want the Brewers. To be the best, it's better to beat the best. Dodgers/Brewers are going to game 7 so, while we rest...
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 20, 2018 1:37:13 GMT -5
I might snap some tickets if it's the Dodgers. Parking in that stadium is so crazy I'd probably never make it back home! And tickets would probably cost $500 plus each.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 20, 2018 1:39:07 GMT -5
Devers is 1 HR and 2 RBI away from tying the all time record for post season by under 22 year olds. He turns 22 Wednesday so I'm hoping for a big game from him. Big names on both lists.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 20, 2018 8:12:08 GMT -5
Waiting is hard! Watched a bit of the Brewers/Dodgers game - low attention span (just get it over with, fellas, so we can get to Tuesday).
I don't care who we play - we are well set to beat up on either team. Can't wait!
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pd
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Post by pd on Oct 20, 2018 9:06:48 GMT -5
Imagine facing this team with the Sale of April-July and Mookie hitting like he did for 90% of the regular season. And a lights out closer.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 20, 2018 10:14:49 GMT -5
I'm not saying you can't use any starter as a reliever. I'm saying I would do it very cautiously. If one or 2 starters ( # 4 or 5 ) are not scheduled for starts of course use them ( largely the Houston situation last year if I remember correctly for the most part at least ). We were throwing all our top starters in the pen, and actually used 3 of them in the pen and warmed up another for 2 innings the day before his start. All this was risky as heck and I think it likely hurt Sales and Porcello some in their starts but we will never know for sure will we? Interesting data from 538: fivethirtyeight.com/features/this-might-be-the-best-red-sox-world-series-team-yet/Sale pitched poorly in both his starts. It’s a stretch to say the one inning in relief affected his second start. Sale is not right. The one inning stint may be easier for him right now. This is where Erod sucking hurts a lot. They just don’t have another option to start so you have to roll with Sale and pray. Because he’s a maniac and competitor, I have some faith he can overcome it in the WS.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 20, 2018 10:23:31 GMT -5
I'm not saying you can't use any starter as a reliever. I'm saying I would do it very cautiously. If one or 2 starters ( # 4 or 5 ) are not scheduled for starts of course use them ( largely the Houston situation last year if I remember correctly for the most part at least ). We were throwing all our top starters in the pen, and actually used 3 of them in the pen and warmed up another for 2 innings the day before his start. All this was risky as heck and I think it likely hurt Sales and Porcello some in their starts but we will never know for sure will we? Interesting data from 538: fivethirtyeight.com/features/this-might-be-the-best-red-sox-world-series-team-yet/Sale pitched poorly in both his starts. It’s a stretch to say the one inning in relief affected his second start. Sale is not right. The one inning stint may be easier for him right now. This is where Erod sucking hurts a lot. They just don’t have another option to start so you have to roll with Sale and pray. Because he’s a maniac and competitor, I have some faith he can overcome it in the WS. Sale was one out away from a quality start in his first start. The only reason why he let runs up in that game is because the bullpen let his inherited runners to score.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 20, 2018 10:33:52 GMT -5
Sale pitched poorly in both his starts. It’s a stretch to say the one inning in relief affected his second start. Sale is not right. The one inning stint may be easier for him right now. This is where Erod sucking hurts a lot. They just don’t have another option to start so you have to roll with Sale and pray. Because he’s a maniac and competitor, I have some faith he can overcome it in the WS. Sale was one out away from a quality start in his first start. The only reason why he let runs up in that game is because the bullpen let his inherited runners to score. Yea I guess it wasn’t a poor start. Just not what I expect from him.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 20, 2018 11:03:41 GMT -5
I’m really hoping its the Brewers. I have a hard time seeing them win more than 2 games against us. I think the Dodgers could beat us with Buehler and Kershaw.
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Post by tonyc on Oct 20, 2018 12:48:54 GMT -5
Favorite winning Sox teams?- Sorry most of you weren't around for 1975, it's still the tops. Many great star/HOF- Morgan, Rose, Bench, Perez, Yaz, Fisk, Tiant, Rice, Lynn. Also, two of the best defensive teams to ever oppose each other- 4 Gold Glovers on each team. And so exciting it did bring baseball back from being left behind football. 1978 and 1986 too, even though they lost- exciting, I was younger and the sox seemed to be my whole life back then. 2018 is different than 2004-Greatest come back ever..2007 down 3-1 to Indians with 2 19 game winners to face 2013- Going down to St. Louis with that interference and sore armed Bucholtz next (his 4 innings were THE key to that year)- This year they were never behind like any others, didn't have to face that adversity and the drama it created. However, we all know that the final scores and wins belie how close and vulnerable they were pitch by pitch to two outstanding and dangerous teams which constantly threatened our pitchers who at times lacked command. It was thrilling enough to take me back from skepticism about the greed, lack of loyalty, lack of action (vs. Hockey)- and yes the criticism this same group of players did so recently receive in the press. They are obviously tight and very lovable and exciting athletically and I'm glad to be back for this ride, perhaps our last (other than next year) for a long time.
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