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2019 MLBTR Arb Projections & the Payroll
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 18, 2018 8:36:59 GMT -5
Red Sox (13) Mookie Betts – $18.7MM Xander Bogaerts – $11.9MM Jackie Bradley Jr. – $7.9MM Eduardo Rodriguez – $4.8MM Brock Holt – $3.4MM Tyler Thornburg – $2.3MM Sandy Leon – $2.3MM Matt Barnes – $1.5MM Brandon Workman – $1.4MM Steven Wright – $1.4MM Heath Hembree – $1.2MM Carson Smith – $1.1MM Blake Swihart- $1.1MM www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2019.htmlThe CBT payroll for next year is already at approx. $146,096,667 ( Link). I do not think this includes Nunez's $4M option, but does include Sale's. Projected arb salaries add another $59M, to $205M. That is before dealing with the bullpen, which will be without a closer and probably needs a full overhaul anyway, and signing another starter (e.g. Eovaldi), and perhaps a platoon partner for Moreland assuming that they're not going to give that gig to Travis. Myself, I see a number of non-tender candidates here. Thornburg and Smith stand out, as does getting rid of one of the three catchers. As I've said, Dombrowski is going to need to get creative to keep most of this core together in the next year or so.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 18, 2018 11:03:04 GMT -5
I agree. Thornburg and Smith may be a financial cost savings, as well as a Catcher. Even though that savings may go right to resigning someone like Eovaldi...
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 18, 2018 11:13:24 GMT -5
I agree. Thornburg and Smith may be a financial cost savings, as well as a Catcher. Even though that savings may go right to resigning someone like Eovaldi... I don't see them not signing Thornburg. Like in the NFL where high draft choices get a lot more chances. The cost to acquire Thornburg was too high to let him go before giving him 2 years after his injury.
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Post by jiant2520 on Oct 18, 2018 11:43:55 GMT -5
I agree. Thornburg and Smith may be a financial cost savings, as well as a Catcher. Even though that savings may go right to resigning someone like Eovaldi... I don't see them not signing Thornburg. Like in the NFL where high draft choices get a lot more chances. The cost to acquire Thornburg was too high to let him go before giving him 2 years after his injury. I could see the reasoning behind that as well. Perhaps he comes to ST before they make decision on him, and the others. If he is missing bats and has good velocity, then I can see him possibly staying... or traded to get something back.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 18, 2018 12:05:55 GMT -5
I don't know about non-tendering Thornburg and Smith. What are the chances that 3.4 million can get you the upside those two guys have? Heck I can see Thornburg getting over 2.3 million on the open market.
I agree you need to get creative, but I feel those guys help you do that. Let Kimbrel walk, bring in or trade for a cheaper guy, knowing you have depth upside guys that could be set-up caliber.
I've always said Porcello is the guy to get creative with, mainly due to his huge salary. Also we have Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello, Wright, Johnson, and Vazquez. I don't see how you need another starter, you might want another starter, but you don't need one. I love the idea of Eovaldi, yet he's looking like he's going to cost a ton. He's got to be in the 2-4 years and 12 to 15 million per right now no?
After we win the World Series, lets hope we just blow by the upper tax limit again. Its the smart play. You can't keep everyone long-term, so lets go for it again!
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 18, 2018 12:54:07 GMT -5
I don't see them not signing Thornburg. Like in the NFL where high draft choices get a lot more chances. The cost to acquire Thornburg was too high to let him go before giving him 2 years after his injury. I could see the reasoning behind that as well. Perhaps he comes to ST before they make decision on him, and the others. If he is missing bats and has good velocity, then I can see him possibly staying... or traded to get something back. This will be the first time Thornburg has a normal offseason to strengthen up for the season. I highly doubt they'd non tender him. Smith though wouldn't surprise me at all.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 18, 2018 14:44:23 GMT -5
If Smith didn't handle his latest injury so poorly I'd consider him a near lock to be brought back at that number. If Smith has been a pain to deal with since he got here and the club simply doesn't want to work with him going forward, fine, hit him with the non-tender. If that whole thing was an isolated incident from a frustrated player I'd definitely like to see what he's got in ST, especially if they plan to build the bullpen/replace Kimbrel on the cheap.
Even though Smith has missed even more time than Thornburg I'll take his list of injuries over thoracic outlet syndrome, and he at least showed an ability to miss bats in his extremely brief 2018...plus, if we're pinching pennies his salary projection is listed for half as much, so there's that. It's just tough for me to see how a Thornburg flyer would be worth $2.3m but Smith at $1.1m isn't worth it, barring medical/personality issues that admittedly could change the equation in a big way.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 14:46:12 GMT -5
I could see the reasoning behind that as well. Perhaps he comes to ST before they make decision on him, and the others. If he is missing bats and has good velocity, then I can see him possibly staying... or traded to get something back. This will be the first time Thornburg has a normal offseason to strengthen up for the season. I highly doubt they'd non tender him. Smith though wouldn't surprise me at all. I'm at the opposite end of this. I see Smith staying over Thornburg. Thornburg will cost you 1.5 million dollars more almost. Smith was decent up until the injury. Also, I see Workman getting traded. So that'll save you something. Edit- What Beasly said.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Oct 18, 2018 15:03:44 GMT -5
Trading Workman and Non-tendring Thornburg negates the Nunez option at least.
This is why I think the Sox are probably in a position where they need to trade Porcello. We will find out 7 days after the world series whether Price is staying or leaving, so at least they can plan for life after that quickly.
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Oct 18, 2018 15:27:17 GMT -5
If Smith didn't handle his latest injury so poorly I'd consider him a near lock to be brought back at that number. If Smith has been a pain to deal with since he got here and the club simply doesn't want to work with him going forward, fine, hit him with the non-tender. If that whole thing was an isolated incident from a frustrated player I'd definitely like to see what he's got in ST, especially if they plan to build the bullpen/replace Kimbrel on the cheap. Even though Smith has missed even more time than Thornburg I'll take his list of injuries over thoracic outlet syndrome, and he at least showed an ability to miss bats in his extremely brief 2018...plus, if we're pinching pennies his salary projection is listed for half as much, so there's that. It's just tough for me to see how a Thornburg flyer would be worth $2.3m but Smith at $1.1m isn't worth it, barring medical/personality issues that admittedly could change the equation in a big way. Thornburg has the advantage of being a year further removed from surgery. Combine that with Smith's poor attitude and I think Smith is more likely to be non-tendered. That said, I would tender them both contracts and wait until ST to make a determination.
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orion09
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Post by orion09 on Oct 18, 2018 15:46:57 GMT -5
The information we don't have is how severely Smith tore his labrum when he dislocated his shoulder, and whether there's rotator cuff damage as well.
I couldn't find any information on MLB pitchers with labrum tears specifically from shoulder subluxation (Bankart lesion?). Studies in high school players seem to rate it as less serious than other kinds of labrum injuries, but who knows.
If there's associated rotator cuff damage, the prognosis is worse. Pre-surgery reports raised concerns of rotator cuff damage with Smith, but didn't find anything from after the surgery indicating what they found.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 19, 2018 9:07:11 GMT -5
With both Smith and Thornburg, it's almost something I'd want to trust my coaches on rather than try to evaluate the performance as is. Thornburg was a mess, but came off a major (possibly career altering) injury, and his release point and mechanics seemed all out of whack, and none of his pitches seemed to have the sharp movement they did before the injury. The curve especially just kinda rolled across the plate. If that can be fixed with a full offseason and work with Bannister and Levangie, then you take the chance on him. I have no insight as to whether it can.
And I basically agree with beasley on Smith as well. I think his mechanics are going to lead to him getting injured again, but at that money, so what? Even a couple decent months would make him worth it. So, like a couple other people said, it depends more on whether he's worth keeping around. If the temper tantrum was just an isolated incident of frustration and everything else coming out, then there's no reason to hold that against him forever. If he's a bad fit, maybe you just move on.
Looking at the 2019 roster, I have to think one of Hembree or Workman is getting dealt. Both are too good to be non-tendered or DFA, but there isn't an obvious spot for either and you'd think you could get some sort of lottery ticket and clear the 40-man spot. Workman is finally, mercifully, out of options. The calculus on both guys changes some if they do indeed decide to non-tender Smith and/or Thornburg.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Oct 19, 2018 15:27:41 GMT -5
What stinks the most is both Smith and Thornburg were acquired through trading away talent, and both appeared to be in their prime with years of team control. Both guys have done effectively nothing since they've been here.
It would be great to see one of these guys bounce back and re-establish their value. I think they're both worth the chance.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 19, 2018 17:13:31 GMT -5
What stinks the most is both Smith and Thornburg were acquired through trading away talent, and both appeared to be in their prime with years of team control. Both guys have done effectively nothing since they've been here. It would be great to see one of these guys bounce back and re-establish their value. I think they're both worth the chance. Agree on Thornburg, for sure. And while Miley has surprisingly done well for the Brew Crew this year, trading him for Smith doesn't exactly qualify as trading away talent. That one was well worth the risk.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Oct 20, 2018 4:27:51 GMT -5
What stinks the most is both Smith and Thornburg were acquired through trading away talent, and both appeared to be in their prime with years of team control. Both guys have done effectively nothing since they've been here. It would be great to see one of these guys bounce back and re-establish their value. I think they're both worth the chance. Agree on Thornburg, for sure. And while Miley has surprisingly done well for the Brew Crew this year, trading him for Smith doesn't exactly qualify as trading away talent. That one was well worth the risk. Both Smith and Thornburg, pre-surgeries, were very successful 8th and 9th inning RP’s with filthy stuff. Exactly the kind of RP’s we prayed for 2018, and now 2019. Combined, they would get paid just a few million, all up. We don’t know whether they can get back to form, but we can hope, and will learn in a few months. But if they finally return healthy (Smith would likely start the year in rehab) then the heavy lifting is already done for the Pen. Barnes, Brasier, Kelly, Thornburg, Smith, Johnson, Velasquez could be among the best, with Lakins, Feltman and others at the door by mid season. Meanwhile, I will enjoy seeing Miley and The Mayor of Ding Dong City again if the Fates allow.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 13, 2018 20:47:21 GMT -5
I'd like to go ahead and bump this thread since the Sox already have some answers to this question already answered.
Carson Smith is already gone with his 1 million off the books. Nunez is back at 5 million. I expect Thornburg to be nontendered and Workman traded.
So that brings you right around 205 million to start the offseason.
Eovaldi gets you to around 220 million if you resign him.
You're probably only going to afford one reliever this offseason. Better make the right choice on who you want to get.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 13, 2018 21:38:51 GMT -5
I believe Nunez is $4m.
From FanGraphs: 2019 Player Option: $4M ($2M buyout).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 13, 2018 22:01:03 GMT -5
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Post by Gwell55 on Nov 13, 2018 22:06:19 GMT -5
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 16, 2018 18:39:18 GMT -5
So the Pearce signing knocks up the 2019 salary to close to 212 million. It's at least 210 million without doing too much math. Like I mentioned in the Pearce thread, the Sox sure paying close to 16-17 million in AAV to the bench alone in 2019.
A Eovaldi resigning might get that figure up to close to 230 million.
You just have to wonder if the Sox are about to blow doors and spend 260 million this year on this year's team in 2019 before they think about dialing it back in 2020.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 17, 2018 3:37:06 GMT -5
I have them at $218 AAV including benefits and minor leaguers, if they trade Swihart and Workman as projected.
That leaves $28M if they want to stay under the upper limit. Eovaldi and two top relievers probably tops that. It'll be interesting to see if they go relatively cheap on one.
For 2020, they're shedding $72M, but they'll have arb increases plus Sale and Xander re-sign. Quick and dirty says they need to cover all of that with $40M or less if they want to do a reset.
I'm seriously wondering whether this isn't Sale's last year here. Price, Eovaldi, E-Rod, and a healthy Steven Wright would still be a formidable post-season rotation, and Johnson a way better than average 5th starter. There's no way you can justify paying Sale what he's worth plus the penalties. But without him, a reset would be doable, and you can keep JBJ, too (whereas if you try to do a reset with Sale, he's a goner).
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Post by bluechip on Nov 17, 2018 3:46:56 GMT -5
I have them at $218 AAV including benefits and minor leaguers, if they trade Swihart and Workman as projected. That leaves $28M if they want to stay under the upper limit. Eovaldi and two top relievers probably tops that. It'll be interesting to see if they go relatively cheap on one.
For 2020, they're shedding $72M, but they'll have arb increases plus Sale and Xander re-sign. Quick and dirty says they need to cover all of that with $40M or less if they want to do a reset.
I'm seriously wondering whether this isn't Sale's last year here. Price, Eovaldi, E-Rod, and a healthy Steven Wright would still be a formidable post-season rotation, and Johnson a way better than average 5th starter. There's no way you can justify paying Sale what he's worth plus the penalties. But without him, a reset would be doable, and you can keep JBJ, too (whereas if you try to do a reset with Sale, he's a goner).
Sale is wait and see for me. His health, and the long term outlook of same, means a lot of risk to me.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 17, 2018 9:03:39 GMT -5
I have them at $218 AAV including benefits and minor leaguers, if they trade Swihart and Workman as projected. That leaves $28M if they want to stay under the upper limit. Eovaldi and two top relievers probably tops that. It'll be interesting to see if they go relatively cheap on one.
For 2020, they're shedding $72M, but they'll have arb increases plus Sale and Xander re-sign. Quick and dirty says they need to cover all of that with $40M or less if they want to do a reset.
I'm seriously wondering whether this isn't Sale's last year here. Price, Eovaldi, E-Rod, and a healthy Steven Wright would still be a formidable post-season rotation, and Johnson a way better than average 5th starter. There's no way you can justify paying Sale what he's worth plus the penalties. But without him, a reset would be doable, and you can keep JBJ, too (whereas if you try to do a reset with Sale, he's a goner).
"as projected" by ?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 17, 2018 10:46:54 GMT -5
@redsoxpayroll on Twitter has them at $225.73M, but needs to add $1M for Nunez hitting his plate appearance mark in 2018, so it's more like $226.73M. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zPx_cKCQ7TQjab2kPM4zIhEFSDxrTpLLIEZr2xh5E8g/edit#gid=106272480 (Why doesn't Cot's have a 2019 cap estimate yet?) Remove at least $1.5M of that for one of the three catchers coming off. I can't imagine the bullpen next year contains all three of Thornburg, Hembree, and Workman, so take off another $1.2M to be conservative. So $224M basically before signing a fifth starter and bullpen arms. Considering the second threshold for the CBT this year is $246M, I can't see them making any significant additions and staying under, so unlike last year, they should just go ahead and spend now rather than trying to see if they can stay under, only to go over due to in-season trades. I can't imagine they stay under the highest CBT mark this year, both for practicality reasons and with the thinking that next year is the reset button. The only non-arb players currently under contract for 2020 are Price and Pedroia, and in theory Martinez, although if he has another year like 2018, there's a real chance he opts out. There's also an argument for limiting the organization's commitments past 2021, as there's a non-zero chance that MLB's payroll system undergoes significant change in the next CBA.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Nov 18, 2018 0:49:30 GMT -5
My last kind of gripe with this kind of deal is that they go ahead and show Pearce the money and deservadly so (world series MVP). Aggressive approach that obviously gets a deal done. Great.
Yet here we are filing and trialing Mookie Betts in arbitration, you know your best player, over 3 million dollars. Granted if you won you save a bunch of money the next 2 years of arbitration against Mookie, but he's the exact player I don't want to be saving money on and showing the money.
By not trying to settle the arbitration contract, you lost 3 million dollars and you took your best player to a hearing and telling him why he doesn't deserve money. Hello, that's the guy who deserves the dang money. You didn't even try to settle on a contract because of a all of a sudden "new approach" to arbitration that was unheard of in the John Henry ERA beforehand. You did it to the best player this organization might have seen since Ted Williams.
These two points might have been unrelated to some degree, but I didn't know where to put it.
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