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2013 Spring Training Discussion
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 19, 2013 14:30:46 GMT -5
I have Carp as a lock over Nava. Carp has no options left and Nava has one and I'm sure that is a consideration. My impression from Sunday's telecast was that Iglesias would replace Drew if he's on the DL to start the season and that he would play every day at least until Drew was ready to go. You would need either him or Holt on the roster as otherwise there are only two middle infielders, Ciriaco and Pedroia. I don't think they view Carp the same way they would a normal 40-man guy. All they did to acquire him was pay the M's money. He's expendable to open a spot for Sweeney or Overbay if they beat him out for a job.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2013 14:40:37 GMT -5
Does Bard's one bad outing today mean that he will likely begin the year in triple-A? It's just one bad outing so far this spring, and given the injuries to Breslow and Morales, he should begin the year in Boston, because I really think that he is in for a rebound year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 19, 2013 14:50:45 GMT -5
Does Bard's one bad outing today mean that he will likely begin the year in triple-A? It's just one bad outing so far this spring, and given the injuries to Breslow and Morales, he should begin the year in Boston, because I really think that he is in for a rebound year. No, the fact that he needs to get his mechanical issues fully worked out, which may or may not have contributed to his outing today, mean he will likely start in Pawtucket. My opinion at least.
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Post by grandsalami on Mar 19, 2013 15:07:28 GMT -5
Rob Bradford ?@bradfo Bard pants bloodied. Explained part of hand usually super glues for callous purposes came open 2nd to last pitch in pen just before outing
Rob Bradford ?@bradfo Bard's wound is around thumb joint. Whole back of pant leg was bloodied. Still pitched inning
COULD explain?
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Post by amfox1 on Mar 19, 2013 15:15:04 GMT -5
Does Bard's one bad outing today mean that he will likely begin the year in triple-A? It's just one bad outing so far this spring, and given the injuries to Breslow and Morales, he should begin the year in Boston, because I really think that he is in for a rebound year. No, the fact that he needs to get his mechanical issues fully worked out, which may or may not have contributed to his outing today, mean he will likely start in Pawtucket. My opinion at least. And he has options, while Mortensen does not. The Red Sox tend to maximize their assets at this time of year.
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Post by jfizznet on Mar 19, 2013 15:21:04 GMT -5
Nice come back by the backups. 8 of 9 hit singles for 6 runs in the 8th.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2013 16:05:00 GMT -5
Not sure I understand. Under the theory of sunk costs it shouldn't matter what they gave up to acquire him, should it?
In the end, I think you can have both Nava and Carp on the team with Sweeney. It doesn't really come down to Nava vs. Carp but more Carp vs. Overbay. Doesn't seem to me that you could really have both. Carp has the inside track there I think due to his age and upside.
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Post by jmei on Mar 19, 2013 18:27:08 GMT -5
Not sure I understand. Under the theory of sunk costs it shouldn't matter what they gave up to acquire him, should it? In the end, I think you can have both Nava and Carp on the team with Sweeney. It doesn't really come down to Nava vs. Carp but more Carp vs. Overbay. Doesn't seem to me that you could really have both. Carp has the inside track there I think due to his age and upside. I agree with this, although I think Carp versus Overbay may end up being a pretty close decision. Overbay is probably better defensively at 1B, and with Gomes and Nava also on the roster, Carp's ability to play LF becomes less useful. That said, Carp's youth, upside, and years of future control should give him the edge as long as he demonstrates some level of defensive competence.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 20, 2013 7:18:28 GMT -5
Not sure I understand. Under the theory of sunk costs it shouldn't matter what they gave up to acquire him, should it? In the end, I think you can have both Nava and Carp on the team with Sweeney. It doesn't really come down to Nava vs. Carp but more Carp vs. Overbay. Doesn't seem to me that you could really have both. Carp has the inside track there I think due to his age and upside. Well, Chris's point seems to be that there weren't really any sunk costs - therefore, such a principle doesn't really apply and won't factor in (or cloud) the decision making process. The Red Sox basically paid a token amount to observe Carp first-hand and decide if he's a better option than Sweeney and/or Overbay. The fact that they acquired him doesn't necessarily mean they are invested in keeping him. The opportunity cost was so low that it's not even part of the consideration. The paradox of a sunk cost really only applies when costs are high enough to cloud the decision making process. Like spending a ton of money to fix a car's brakes, and then a month later the transmission goes, and thinking "well, I just spent all that money fixing the brakes - might as well go all the way and fix the rest." Rationally, the money to fix the brakes was gone, and shouldn't enter the decision-making process. An baseball example might be how long the Mariners held onto Chone Figgins, even batting him leadoff in over half of his starts last year. They couldn't separate an assessment of Figgins the player with the money they'd already put into him. He was a clunker, but they continued to drive him. The rational (for lack of a better word) action would've been to cut him after his miserable 2011 season, or at the very least make him a backup, but there he was, leading off and playing third base on opening day.
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Post by elguapo on Mar 20, 2013 8:21:43 GMT -5
The point of sunk costs, which I think moonstone was making, is that it doesn't matter how huge or miniscule they were -- they're sunk -- perfectly applicable to this case.
A sunk cost dilemma or paradox goes well beyond that.
Assuming the Mariners were acting rationally, they may have considered that the slim chance of Figgins bouncing back (as some players left for dead have done), at 0 acquisition cost and 0 salary (both already paid and sunk), given their budgetary constraints and other 3B options, was worth another shot, at the risk of imperiling their "playoff chances". Maybe they were wrong, but not necessarily irrational.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2013 9:50:13 GMT -5
Right and this would be the reciprocal of that wouldn't it? "I got this car for free so I'm not going to spend any money on it". I maybe using the wrong term, but it still doesn't seem logical that the original cost to acquire Carp would determine whether to keep him today.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2013 10:02:53 GMT -5
This is a fair breakdown. Overbay's defense at 1B vs. Carp's versatility and upside. I would also add as a point in Carp's favor that they might have a better chance of keeping Overbay if he doesn't make the team. Is there a team that would give Overbay a major league job tomorrow? Yankees?
If it's me I'm taking Carp's upside.
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Post by raftsox on Mar 20, 2013 12:46:49 GMT -5
Fangraphs has just finished the offensive portion of their 2013 WAR projections (go to their site, they're pinned to the top). They project the Red Sox to have the fourth best offense in the AL, behind only the Rangers, Tigers and Angels (in that order). They're also a full 2 wins ahead of the next best offense: the Blue Jays. Considering the NL too, they would be the fifth best offense. The lone NL team ahead of them surprised me: the Rockies?! Who, by the way, do not have the benefit of Texas' 2.8 DH wins. Which, discounting that would have them as the best offense in baseball. I forget if Fangraphs uses 44 or 48 wins as "replacement level", but I used 44 which puts the Sox at 73.5 wins. Let's assume 93 wins gets them in the playoffs, they would need 19.5 pitching wins for the season. Here are their pitching wins for the last several seasons: Season | WAR | 2012 | 13.7 | 2011 | 20.4 | 2010 | 20.7 | 2009 | 24.8 | 2008 | 24.5 | 2007 | 25.2 |
Any takers pitching wins, offensive wins and total wins for the season?
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Post by jdb on Mar 20, 2013 16:36:23 GMT -5
Saw this blurb about our potential order. Does it sound like we have decided to hit Pedroia 3rd? Farrell saying maybe Gomes 2nd vs LHP. www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2013/03/farrell_still_f.html"Jonny (Gomes) had a lot of success in the two-hole last year," Farrell said. "Against a lefty we have options. Righthanded — that's where (switch-hitter) Nava's situation comes into focus. And yet we're not set on which of those lefthanders will make the club. "At some point, we can't totally neglect spring training. We're going to balance that with the long-term production they've had." That's why it appears that Nava, who is playing first base today against the Yankees, could have a leg up on MIke Carp, Lyle Overbay and Ryan Sweeney.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2013 17:01:31 GMT -5
David Ross is hitting about 1/5 of his weight. Is this concerning?
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Post by iakovos11 on Mar 20, 2013 21:27:26 GMT -5
David Ross is hitting about 1/5 of his weight. Is this concerning? You're seriously asking this question of a defensive minded catcher in spring training??
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 20, 2013 21:32:41 GMT -5
David Ross is hitting about 1/5 of his weight. Is this concerning? Is this the first spring training you've ever watched?
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Mar 21, 2013 9:38:32 GMT -5
Looks like from Farrell's comments the linuep looks like:
Vs RHP: Ellsbury CF, Nava LF, Pedroia 2B, Napoli 1B, Salty C, WMB 3B, Victorino RF, Ross/Carp/Sweeney, Iglesias SS
Vs LHP: Ellsbury CF, Gomes LF, Pedroia 2B, Napoli 1B, Salty C, WMB 3B, Victorino RF, Ross/Carp/Sweeney, Iglesias SS
With some sort of rotation in LF/DH/C with Gomes-Nava-Carp-Sweeney and Ross-Salty
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Mar 21, 2013 10:35:36 GMT -5
Right and this would be the reciprocal of that wouldn't it? "I got this car for free so I'm not going to spend any money on it". I maybe using the wrong term, but it still doesn't seem logical that the original cost to acquire Carp would determine whether to keep him today. My point didn't have to do with sunk costs. It had to do with his status as someone on the 40-man in light of what the team gave up to get him. I'll explain better: 1) We can use how much a team gave up for a player as a rough indication of how they view him, or at least of the baseline of how they view him. Here, the Sox gave up very little. It's not like they even traded a useful org guy for him, and to the degree they beat out any other teams for his services, it sure didn't take much to do so. If they had traded a player for him, you could at least say that the team felt strong enough that he might be an upgrade over what they had that they used resources to acquire him. Here, they did not do that. He's on the 40-man basically because it was part of the acquisition, but it's not because of any advanced status over Sweeney or Overbay. 2) Probably not a point I made at that last point, but also: In terms of depth, "keep the guy on the 40-man, send the other to the minors" doesn't fly in this situation. I.e., if the decision comes down to Carp vs. Overbay for a spot, one's gone either way. Thus, Carp's 40-man status doesn't tell us anything in that case either. He's keeping a spot warm that will either be taken by him or Overbay, or maybe JBJ. I'm inclined to agree with the projected rosters we're starting to see: Safe (Assuming no trades) Jarrod Saltalamacchia David Ross Mike Napoli Dustin Pedroia Steven Drew, or if he's on the DL, Jose Iglesias Will Middlebrooks Jonny Gomes Jacoby Ellsbury Shane Victorino Pedro Ciriaco (Holt just isn't enough of an upgrade to justify losing Ciriaco and, thus, depth) Jon Lester Clay Buchholz Ryan Dempster Felix Doubront John Lackey Joel Hanrahan Andrew Bailey Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Andrew Miller Alfredo Aceves (at least, I can't see them cutting him. Again, maybe he's a trade candidate, in which case both Mortensen and Bard make the team) DLDavid Ortiz Maybe Stephen Drew Franklin Morales Craig Breslow This leaves three "bench" spots and one bullpen spot. I'll take the latter first b/c it's easy: Last bullpen spotClayton Mortensen vs. Daniel Bard Given Bard's continued work on his mechanics and these players' option situations, I think it's pretty obviously Mortensen here. Bard could be up quick if he straightens himself out though. 3 Bench spotsDaniel Nava Mike Carp Ryan Sweeney Lyle Overbay Mauro Gomez Jackie Bradley, Jr. Ryan Lavarnway I'll eliminate from the end of that list: It's not clear that Lavarnway will hit enough to justify his inclusion on the roster after the season he had last year. I'd at least want to see him in Pawtucket for a month or two to make sure adding the weight back he'd lost entering last year does the job of getting his power and stamina back. In order to justify JBJ being on the roster, he needs to be clearly better than Nava. I'm not sure he is quite yet. I now see the situation as being similar to Daniel Bard's in 2009: "OK kid, you look ready, but we aren't in dire need of your services yet - go to Pawtucket for a month and make us call you up." He's had a great camp, but he needs to be worlds better to make this happen. By the way, I'm not super concerned about his service time situation - he's almost certainly going to spend at least 20 days in the minors this year if, at some point, everyone in the outfield/1B/DH is healthy. And even if not, I'm sure the Sox would try to game it so that he does, whether or not he opens the year on the roster. Gomez has options. Carp, Sweeney, Overbay don't. Nevermind handedness, which is his other problem, the option situation is enough to keep Gomez in Pawtucket. So to me, it's four guys for three spots. Nava's the safest to me, and the most likely to "platoon" with Gomes, however that's going to play out both before and after Ortiz comes back. Sweeney provides the most outfield depth, so I think he's in as the fifth outfielder. Thus, I think it comes down to Carp/Overbay in keeping a roster spot warm for Ortiz. I honestly don't know which way they're going (I haven't been able to watch games lately), but to get back to my point, I don't think Carp's 40-man status means a thing here. It depends on several things - is Nava good enough at 1B at this point that they don't value Overbay's glove there as much? Do they care about Carp's "versatility" in playing both LF and 1B (if that's what you want to call it) if both Nava and Sweeney make the roster?
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Post by jmei on Mar 21, 2013 11:41:37 GMT -5
I agree with the above, but I also think Carp is a better defensive first baseman than a lot of folks are giving him credit for. I haven't seen a play that really tested his range, but I remember him making a pretty good pick on a throw in the dirt and making a good play on a sharply hit ball to first base. It's not a lot so far, but I'd be more comfortable defensively with Carp at 1B as opposed to Nava, for instance.
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Post by jmei on Mar 21, 2013 11:49:04 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 21, 2013 12:15:29 GMT -5
I agree with the above, but I also think Carp is a better defensive first baseman than a lot of folks are giving him credit for. I haven't seen a play that really tested his range, but I remember him making a pretty good pick on a throw in the dirt and making a good play on a sharply hit ball to first base. It's not a lot so far, but I'd be more comfortable defensively with Carp at 1B as opposed to Nava, for instance. Wrote this up earlier. Outside of his range, Carp is quite adequate at first. He has a decent arm, makes the plays to second, and can scoop the ball. He is sluggish, that's the biggest hole. He can't get to all the balls far to his right that others might capture, but he has excellent reflexes. He just doesn't have quick feet. He's a better first baseman, by a bit, than he is a left-fielder. He has a very good glove once he reaches he ball. That's the biggest problem. His routes can make that an exercise. His age is a big plus in my opinion, though I may be biased here. He absolutely raked before getting hurt in 2011. That may have been an extreme outlier and I'm still living off that dream.
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Post by jimoh on Mar 21, 2013 12:29:15 GMT -5
I like Carp too and am glad to hear people think he's good at the crucial parts of first base. It's not great to have someone with limited range, but it's usually not as disastrous as having someone with stone hands. I hope he comes out on top.
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Post by sarasoxer on Mar 21, 2013 12:50:21 GMT -5
Chris, I think that first 3 guys on your early season bench list will likely make the team....Nava, Carp and Sweeney. Sweeney at least gives solid defense in the OF and has shown himself to be a pretty fair 'average' hitter. Sadly, given his imposing physique, his absence of power will remain an "unsolved mystery". Carp is young, has power and hopefully has upside. As noted, can play 1B as well as OF. Nava is probably a .250 hitter with obvious excellent ball/strike judgment and little power who can fill-in. He is, of course, a SWH but I am not sure that helps a lot given his weakness from the right side. The others on your list don't make it for the reasons you noted. Poor Gomez gets no respect...If he could only field.
As to Bradley making the team, I can't see that happening not because he is not already better than Nava (just given his defense altho that differential is reduced in LF) but because he can still develop by playing daily. I think the Sox like Gomes' power in the lineup somewhere and that alone might reduce JBJ's playing time. You seemed to suggest that JBJ would have to be "worlds better" than he has been to make the team. Given his spring numbers I am not sure that is possible period. He has a .460+ BA and an astronomical OBP. To be better than that would truly be other worldly. IMO, unless there is injury (Papi DL moving Gomes to part-time DH), some serious faltering by a roster OF, or a trade (Ells), JBJ stays most of the year in AAA
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 21, 2013 13:07:44 GMT -5
1) We can use how much a team gave up for a player as a rough indication of how they view him, or at least of the baseline of how they view him. Here, the Sox gave up very little. It's not like they even traded a useful org guy for him, and to the degree they beat out any other teams for his services, it sure didn't take much to do so. If they had traded a player for him, you could at least say that the team felt strong enough that he might be an upgrade over what they had that they used resources to acquire him. Here, they did not do that. He's on the 40-man basically because it was part of the acquisition, but it's not because of any advanced status over Sweeney or Overbay. 2) Probably not a point I made at that last point, but also: In terms of depth, "keep the guy on the 40-man, send the other to the minors" doesn't fly in this situation. I.e., if the decision comes down to Carp vs. Overbay for a spot, one's gone either way. Thus, Carp's 40-man status doesn't tell us anything in that case either. He's keeping a spot warm that will either be taken by him or Overbay, or maybe JBJ. This leaves three "bench" spots and one bullpen spot. I'll take the latter first b/c it's easy: 3 Bench spotsDaniel Nava Mike Carp Ryan Sweeney Lyle Overbay Mauro Gomez Jackie Bradley, Jr. Ryan Lavarnway Nava's the safest to me, and the most likely to "platoon" with Gomes, however that's going to play out both before and after Ortiz comes back. Sweeney provides the most outfield depth, so I think he's in as the fifth outfielder. Thus, I think it comes down to Carp/Overbay in keeping a roster spot warm for Ortiz. I honestly don't know which way they're going (I haven't been able to watch games lately), but to get back to my point, I don't think Carp's 40-man status means a thing here. It depends on several things - is Nava good enough at 1B at this point that they don't value Overbay's glove there as much? Do they care about Carp's "versatility" in playing both LF and 1B (if that's what you want to call it) if both Nava and Sweeney make the roster? I agree with the above, but I also think Carp is a better defensive first baseman than a lot of folks are giving him credit for. I haven't seen a play that really tested his range, but I remember him making a pretty good pick on a throw in the dirt and making a good play on a sharply hit ball to first base. It's not a lot so far, but I'd be more comfortable defensively with Carp at 1B as opposed to Nava, for instance. Wrote this up earlier. Outside of his range, Carp is quite adequate at first. He has a decent arm, makes the plays to second, and can scoop the ball. He is sluggish, that's the biggest hole. He can't get to all the balls far to his right that others might capture, but he has excellent reflexes. He just doesn't have quick feet. He's a better first baseman, by a bit, than he is a left-fielder. He has a very good glove once he reaches he ball. That's the biggest problem. His routes can make that an exercise. His age is a big plus in my opinion, though I may be biased here. He absolutely raked before getting hurt in 2011. That may have been an extreme outlier and I'm still living off that dream. Carp sounds a lot like Napoli to me at 1B. Good hands, limited range. Maybe a few ticks better than Napoli, especially considering first base has been Carp's natural position throughout his career. That being said, we're still talking about two guys who, at best, aren't likely to be any better than average at the position. I wouldn't be surprised to see a -3ish DRS ranking for either of them in a suitable sample size, with UZR in that range as well. With Nava in the equation, and Napoli looking healthy for the time being, his defense at first doesn't worry me. He's new to it and still learning, but I've caught every televised game of him there, and he looks pretty comfortable. The beat writers who have followed the games seem to corroborate this. I'm with Chris on the Sweeney approach. While he doesn't have the offensive upside as the others, I don't want to enter the season with our only CF backup being a player starting full-time at another position (Victorino). Shane shifting to center when Ellsbury's out will significantly hamper the RF defense. Sweeney offers capable defense at all three spots, and he bats from the side of the plate we need. Not an exciting bat, but against RHP's he's a solid low-power, decent on-base bat. With Nava's spot appearing especially safe with Ortiz out, and serving as Gomes platoon partner, we turn to the DH/1B spot. Overbay made massive improvements in his defense way back with the Brewers, but at this point in his career, I wouldn't consider him outstanding defensively. Really, it comes down to which one of those two guys is going to have the better bat. Does Overbay's bat really excite anyone anymore, even in a part-time role? He hasn't been a real productive hitter since 2009, and he's 36 now. Against RHP's, we're talking about an average in the .240's over the past 3 years with a servicable OBP. It's not terrible, but the nice thing about Carp is he has youth and upside. Even if his average is no better than Overbay's, we're likely to see much better power at this point, marginally worse defense at 1B, and added defensive versatility in Carp's ability to play a mediocre LF. I vote Sweeney (5th OF), Nava (LF vs RHP), Carp (DH/1B vs RHP, some lefties maybe). The real interesting question to me is, what happens when Ortiz returns? I suppose we'll have to wait and see how these guys produce during the first 2 weeks of the season. Sweeney, as much as he seems like the weak-link offensive, simply offers defensive value that isn't diminished when Ortiz returns, unlike the other two guys.
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