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What to do with Chris Sale
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Post by seamus on Aug 19, 2022 15:59:04 GMT -5
Are you talking about Hunter Greene? The Reds may be a weird organization, but surely even they won't trade a 23-year-old rookie blue chip prospect without a mighty sweet return. He's the sort of player they'd be buying, not selling.
Zac Gallen would be a potential trade target. I could also see them talking to Milwaukee about one of their starters given that the Red Sox and Brewers seem to have a good relationship between their front offices. If the Brewers were willing to trade their bullpen ace in the midst of a close division race, they might be persuaded to part with Woodruff, Peralta, or even Burnes at a reasonable price.
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Post by patford on Aug 20, 2022 11:19:49 GMT -5
At this point I doubt Sale has any trade value. The Sox would be lucky to find a team willing to take him and his contract.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 20, 2022 11:22:47 GMT -5
At this point I doubt Sale has any trade value. The Sox would be lucky to find a team willing to take him and his contract. Yep I think the only avenue for a sale trade would be to deal him in a contract swap of sorts. Which if they're doing that they may as well just hold on to him and hope he can do something in these last 2 seasons on his deal. I mean in the 5 or so innings he pitched this year he did look pretty good. He's got broken bones so theoretically his arm should be plenty healthy come spring training.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 20, 2022 11:34:53 GMT -5
At this point the best course of action is to hope he gets healthy next year. It’s hard to have much faith in that, but if healthy that’s a big plus for this rotation
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 20, 2022 13:25:21 GMT -5
Does Sale have the cache to buy a prospect? Red Sox eat 95% of his deal and get a top 100 guy in return?
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 20, 2022 13:43:51 GMT -5
Does Sale have the cache to buy a prospect? Red Sox eat 95% of his deal and get a top 100 guy in return? With the volatility of prospects I wouldn't pay 95 percent of sales deal with only 2 years left for a prospect unless it was like a top 10 guy. Yes it was only 5 innings but his stuff looked good this year. He should be healthy for the start of the year and can be a key piece of rotation.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 20, 2022 14:34:46 GMT -5
Does Sale have the cache to buy a prospect? Red Sox eat 95% of his deal and get a top 100 guy in return? With the volatility of prospects I wouldn't pay 95 percent of sales deal with only 2 years left for a prospect unless it was like a top 10 guy. Yes it was only 5 innings but his stuff looked good this year. He should be healthy for the start of the year and can be a key piece of rotation. Sale has also only pitched 48.1 IP since 2020. There's a lot of risk with him.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 20, 2022 15:23:16 GMT -5
With the volatility of prospects I wouldn't pay 95 percent of sales deal with only 2 years left for a prospect unless it was like a top 10 guy. Yes it was only 5 innings but his stuff looked good this year. He should be healthy for the start of the year and can be a key piece of rotation. Sale has also only pitched 48.1 IP since 2020. There's a lot of risk with him. Oh ya I don't disagree but just saying it's probably in the Sox best interest to just eat the money and hope he can stay healthy enough rather then deal him for say Marcus semien or something along those lines of a bad deal. I'd rather have 2 years of sale and his deal instead of dealing him for a bad contract which is probably all he's worth now.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 20, 2022 15:28:35 GMT -5
Theres only one answer. Pray he gets healthy.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 20, 2022 15:44:09 GMT -5
Does Sale have the cache to buy a prospect? Red Sox eat 95% of his deal and get a top 100 guy in return? I think the problem with this plan is that the Red Sox would need a trade partner with a major need for an ace pitcher and starting pitching depth that can fill-in if he can't go. That description sounds just like the Red Sox.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 20, 2022 18:54:29 GMT -5
Does Sale have the cache to buy a prospect? Red Sox eat 95% of his deal and get a top 100 guy in return? I think the problem with this plan is that the Red Sox would need a trade partner with a major need for an ace pitcher and starting pitching depth that can fill-in if he can't go. That description sounds just like the Red Sox. He's a 10-5 guy. Doubt anybody wants to trade for him unless the Sox pay almost all the freight. It's all a moot point anyways. Doubt Sale would accept a trade anyways and you can't trade him without his permission anyways.
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Post by patford on Aug 20, 2022 19:01:04 GMT -5
Sale has also only pitched 48.1 IP since 2020. There's a lot of risk with him. Oh ya I don't disagree but just saying it's probably in the Sox best interest to just eat the money and hope he can stay healthy enough rather then deal him for say Marcus semien or something along those lines of a bad deal. I'd rather have 2 years of sale and his deal instead of dealing him for a bad contract which is probably all he's worth now. I'd swap him for David Price.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 20, 2022 22:55:02 GMT -5
I think the problem with this plan is that the Red Sox would need a trade partner with a major need for an ace pitcher and starting pitching depth that can fill-in if he can't go. That description sounds just like the Red Sox. He's a 10-5 guy. Doubt anybody wants to trade for him unless the Sox pay almost all the freight. It's all a moot point anyways. Doubt Sale would accept a trade anyways and you can't trade him without his permission anyways. Correct, he's not going anywhere, except for on the IL a few more times over the next two years.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Oct 2, 2022 9:41:57 GMT -5
Going to bring this thread back because in the Maguire thread, I said that having Sale under contract is a good problem to have, and got some disagreement. I still think that's true and will explain why.
The Red Sox can (and should) be taking risky bets with their money. They have so much money to work with that in some ways, I actually think it would be a bad sign if some of there money weren't being wasted, because that means they aren't taking enough risks. The Red Sox are not a small market club. The goal is not to maximize WAR/$, the goal is to win a WS as often as they can. Those are 2 very distinct things, and if you are going for the latter, you should be willing to place risky bets on players with your financial resources. But because of the nature of a risky bet, *some of them will fail*. And the only way to truly avoid a Sale situation is to refrain from giving out big contracts altogether, because predicting future performance is so difficult.
Now, obviously if you are constantly missing on the big contracts you give out, it will eventually come back to bite you as it did this year. Sale, Eovaldi, JD Martinez and Price combined for almost no production this year. But having 1 guy like that won't sink a team with the resources of the Red Sox, and 3 out of those 4 will be gone. So we owe Sale ~$50 million over the next 2 years. My honest opinion is, so what? $50 million over 2 years is nothing for a team like the Red Sox on the off chance that he is able to regain his form. That is a risk the Red Sox should be taking, considering how hard it is to find a pitcher of Sale's caliber.
So I maintain that having Chris Sale on ice isn't the worst thing in the world. Players get injured, it happens. It would be much worse if the lesson from the Price or Sale contracts was "don't ever sign elite pitchers".
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Post by incandenza on Oct 2, 2022 9:50:48 GMT -5
Going to bring this thread back because in the Maguire thread, I said that having Sale under contract is a good problem to have, and got some disagreement. I still think that's true and will explain why. The Red Sox can (and should) be taking risky bets with their money. They have so much money to work with that in some ways, I actually think it would be a bad sign if some of there money weren't being wasted, because that means they aren't taking enough risks. The Red Sox are not a small market club. The goal is not to maximize WAR/$, the goal is to win a WS as often as they can. Those are 2 very distinct things, and if you are going for the latter, you should be willing to place risky bets on players with your financial resources. But because of the nature of a risky bet, *some of them will fail*. And the only way to truly avoid a Sale situation is to refrain from giving out big contracts altogether, because predicting future performance is so difficult. Now, obviously if you are constantly missing on the big contracts you give out, it will eventually come back to bite you as it did this year. Sale, Eovaldi, JD Martinez and Price combined for almost no production this year. But having 1 guy like that won't sink a team with the resources of the Red Sox, and 3 out of those 4 will be gone. So we owe Sale ~$50 million over the next 2 years. My honest opinion is, so what? $50 million over 2 years is nothing for a team like the Red Sox on the off chance that he is able to regain his form. That is a risk the Red Sox should be taking, considering how hard it is to find a pitcher of Sale's caliber. So I maintain that having Chris Sale on ice isn't the worst thing in the world. Players get injured, it happens. It would be much worse if the lesson from the Price or Sale contracts was "don't ever sign elite pitchers". I think the first bolded section is a good point in the abstract, but I think Sale specifically was a bad bet because of the alarming decrease in velocity right at the end of the season before the extension was signed.
The other problem pertains to the second bolded point: 4 of the team's 5 most expensive players all had contracts expiring after 2022. Since players tend to underperform toward the end of their contracts that was setting up a *high likelihood* that this exact scenario would play out - four guys totaling 2 WAR at a price tag of $78 million. A big market team should always have some amount of dead money on the books, but it should be smart about staggering those contracts so that they don't all bite at once.
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Post by patford on Oct 2, 2022 10:02:28 GMT -5
If Sale really means what he's said about feeling terrible that he hasn't been on the field he would opt out and resign with the Sox for a lot less money. At a minimum he should opt out and resign a one year "show me" deal for the 25 million with a club option to pick up a second year at the same price. Most of his time missed was not his fault but his spill on a bicycle, while an accident, was not baseball related. I will believe Sale has a chance to get through a season healthy if he shows up for Spring Training at 215 lbs.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Oct 2, 2022 10:13:50 GMT -5
If Sale really means what he's said about feeling terrible that he hasn't been on the field he would opt out and resign with the Sox for a lot less money. At a minimum he should opt out and resign a one year "show me" deal for the 25 million with a club option to pick up a second year at the same price. Most of his time missed was not his fault but his spill on a bicycle, while an accident, was not baseball related. I will believe Sale has a chance to get through a season healthy if he shows up for Spring Training at 215 lbs. The player's union would never allow this. Money in baseball is guaranteed, as it should be. Players get injured and performance degrades for various reasons. Teams and front offices know this going in when they sign a contract. They already add incentives in contracts for good performance, but it would set a bad precedent if a team got out from under a contract because of an injury. The Red Sox should not be trying to get out from underneath dead money, they should be making sure that they are in a position to offset it by constantly producing major league talent through their farm system. If Brayan Bello can put up 3 WAR next year for $750k it will basically offset what they will lose with Sale doing nothing. That is how you deal with the risk of highly paid players becoming injured or ineffective.
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 2, 2022 12:03:46 GMT -5
If Sale really means what he's said about feeling terrible that he hasn't been on the field he would opt out and resign with the Sox for a lot less money. At a minimum he should opt out and resign a one year "show me" deal for the 25 million with a club option to pick up a second year at the same price. Most of his time missed was not his fault but his spill on a bicycle, while an accident, was not baseball related. I will believe Sale has a chance to get through a season healthy if he shows up for Spring Training at 215 lbs. Chris sale doesn't owe the Red Sox any sort of favor to opt out and sign for cheaper. The only thing he owes them is to go out the next two years and try and do his best. It's not necessarily ideal for the Sox but that's just the way it is.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 2, 2022 13:24:18 GMT -5
Going to bring this thread back because in the Maguire thread, I said that having Sale under contract is a good problem to have, and got some disagreement. I still think that's true and will explain why. The Red Sox can (and should) be taking risky bets with their money. They have so much money to work with that in some ways, I actually think it would be a bad sign if some of there money weren't being wasted, because that means they aren't taking enough risks. The Red Sox are not a small market club. The goal is not to maximize WAR/$, the goal is to win a WS as often as they can. Those are 2 very distinct things, and if you are going for the latter, you should be willing to place risky bets on players with your financial resources. But because of the nature of a risky bet, *some of them will fail*. And the only way to truly avoid a Sale situation is to refrain from giving out big contracts altogether, because predicting future performance is so difficult. Now, obviously if you are constantly missing on the big contracts you give out, it will eventually come back to bite you as it did this year. Sale, Eovaldi, JD Martinez and Price combined for almost no production this year. But having 1 guy like that won't sink a team with the resources of the Red Sox, and 3 out of those 4 will be gone. So we owe Sale ~$50 million over the next 2 years. My honest opinion is, so what? $50 million over 2 years is nothing for a team like the Red Sox on the off chance that he is able to regain his form. That is a risk the Red Sox should be taking, considering how hard it is to find a pitcher of Sale's caliber. So I maintain that having Chris Sale on ice isn't the worst thing in the world. Players get injured, it happens. It would be much worse if the lesson from the Price or Sale contracts was "don't ever sign elite pitchers". Agreed, elite pitchers are a must (and a strong second or complement) 2004 - Schilling and Pedro 2007 - Beckett and Schilling 2013 - Lester and Lackey 2018 - Price and Sale
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Post by patford on Oct 2, 2022 15:27:45 GMT -5
If Sale really means what he's said about feeling terrible that he hasn't been on the field he would opt out and resign with the Sox for a lot less money. At a minimum he should opt out and resign a one year "show me" deal for the 25 million with a club option to pick up a second year at the same price. Most of his time missed was not his fault but his spill on a bicycle, while an accident, was not baseball related. I will believe Sale has a chance to get through a season healthy if he shows up for Spring Training at 215 lbs. The player's union would never allow this. Money in baseball is guaranteed, as it should be. Players get injured and performance degrades for various reasons. Teams and front offices know this going in when they sign a contract. They already add incentives in contracts for good performance, but it would set a bad precedent if a team got out from under a contract because of an injury. The Red Sox should not be trying to get out from underneath dead money, they should be making sure that they are in a position to offset it by constantly producing major league talent through their farm system. If Brayan Bello can put up 3 WAR next year for $750k it will basically offset what they will lose with Sale doing nothing. That is how you deal with the risk of highly paid players becoming injured or ineffective. In what way would the union be able to not allow it? It's a player option. Are you saying no player has ever opted out and then ended up getting less than they would have received if they hadn't opted out?
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Post by patford on Oct 2, 2022 15:34:07 GMT -5
If Sale really means what he's said about feeling terrible that he hasn't been on the field he would opt out and resign with the Sox for a lot less money. At a minimum he should opt out and resign a one year "show me" deal for the 25 million with a club option to pick up a second year at the same price. Most of his time missed was not his fault but his spill on a bicycle, while an accident, was not baseball related. I will believe Sale has a chance to get through a season healthy if he shows up for Spring Training at 215 lbs. Chris sale doesn't owe the Red Sox any sort of favor to opt out and sign for cheaper. The only thing he owes them is to go out the next two years and try and do his best. It's not necessarily ideal for the Sox but that's just the way it is. Of course he does not owe the team anything. My comment is based on Sale talking a lot about how bad he feels. I just wish he would opt out in the same way I wished Martinez would opt out. The fact is players do not opt out unless they feel they will get less than what they will be paid if they decide to not opt out. My guess is if Sale opted out he would get a one year deal for no more than half of the $25 million and possibly a lot less.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Oct 2, 2022 17:38:57 GMT -5
The player's union would never allow this. Money in baseball is guaranteed, as it should be. Players get injured and performance degrades for various reasons. Teams and front offices know this going in when they sign a contract. They already add incentives in contracts for good performance, but it would set a bad precedent if a team got out from under a contract because of an injury. The Red Sox should not be trying to get out from underneath dead money, they should be making sure that they are in a position to offset it by constantly producing major league talent through their farm system. If Brayan Bello can put up 3 WAR next year for $750k it will basically offset what they will lose with Sale doing nothing. That is how you deal with the risk of highly paid players becoming injured or ineffective. In what way would the union be able to not allow it? It's a player option. Are you saying no player has ever opted out and then ended up getting less than they would have received if they hadn't opted out? The MLBPA can veto contracts as long as they have good reason, like they did when ARod tried to restructure his deal to be traded to the Red Sox in 2003. I guess an opt-out is a little different so I'm not sure they would actually have authority to step in. But at the very least they would absolutely be upset about it and tell Sale not to make this decision.
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Post by notstarboard on Oct 3, 2022 9:52:22 GMT -5
Going to bring this thread back because in the Maguire thread, I said that having Sale under contract is a good problem to have, and got some disagreement. I still think that's true and will explain why. The Red Sox can (and should) be taking risky bets with their money. They have so much money to work with that in some ways, I actually think it would be a bad sign if some of there money weren't being wasted, because that means they aren't taking enough risks. The Red Sox are not a small market club. The goal is not to maximize WAR/$, the goal is to win a WS as often as they can. Those are 2 very distinct things, and if you are going for the latter, you should be willing to place risky bets on players with your financial resources. But because of the nature of a risky bet, *some of them will fail*. And the only way to truly avoid a Sale situation is to refrain from giving out big contracts altogether, because predicting future performance is so difficult. Now, obviously if you are constantly missing on the big contracts you give out, it will eventually come back to bite you as it did this year. Sale, Eovaldi, JD Martinez and Price combined for almost no production this year. But having 1 guy like that won't sink a team with the resources of the Red Sox, and 3 out of those 4 will be gone. So we owe Sale ~$50 million over the next 2 years. My honest opinion is, so what? $50 million over 2 years is nothing for a team like the Red Sox on the off chance that he is able to regain his form. That is a risk the Red Sox should be taking, considering how hard it is to find a pitcher of Sale's caliber. So I maintain that having Chris Sale on ice isn't the worst thing in the world. Players get injured, it happens. It would be much worse if the lesson from the Price or Sale contracts was "don't ever sign elite pitchers". Maximizing WAR/$ should result in more WS wins, though. There is an argument for "overpaying" at the trade deadline for marginal wins depending on team performance, but otherwise value is king, especially for teams that want to compete every year. You also haven't justified why risky deals are beneficial, just why you're comfortable with taking on risk. Are you implying that booming and busting at the whims of whether risky FA deals pan out is going to lead to more WS wins? If we had not signed dumb contracts like Sale's, that money would likely have been allocated in a more productive way. We might not have needed a rebuild after 2019. Heck, Mookie Betts could still be playing at Fenway. Having dead weight on your payroll absolutely does matter. I think it's fine to take on risk in a vacuum, but for a risky deal the reward also needs to be greater. I also think that limiting risk where possible is smarter when the intention is to compete every year. Too many risky deals at once increases the likelihood of busts, lost seasons, and a forced rebuild.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 3, 2022 10:42:13 GMT -5
As a proud investor in Chris Sale Island, I wouldn't personally do it - but I wonder what Sale's trade market (10-5 trade rights aside) would be if Sox basically offered him up + ~5 mil a year the next two years as a straight salary dump. Would basically make him a 2 year, 45 mil year deal (22.5 AAV) for whoever got him. I don't know who would do that (Angels came to mind?) but if you're desperate for pitching and you have no chance at Degrom/Verlander, and are worried about giving long term money to a dude like a Rodon, maybe you take a gamble?
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Post by seamus on Oct 3, 2022 11:06:07 GMT -5
I don't see a Sale trade happening. The realistic options to replace him carry plenty of their own risks related to age and/or injury, so I think it's sort of a "bird in the hand" situation. The Sox know his health situation better than they'd know any free agent or trade target, so if they need to gamble on a high-priced starter to bounce-back from injury/stave off Father Time/etc., might as well stick with the known quantity. I do still want them to go after other guys, even guys who carry risk, but not sure there's a plausible way to really gain much by trading Sale versus just taking the chance that he's one of the guys in that risky cohort who bounces back. The Sox aren't in a position where they need to dump his salary and he probably wouldn't get big prospect haul anyway.
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