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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 9, 2019 0:11:55 GMT -5
There's a war coming...players union won't like seeing this while they see a decline in salaries....
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 10, 2019 17:57:41 GMT -5
Interesting tidbit: of the consensus 50 top free agents, just 5 have re-signed.
J.A. Happ, Zach Britton, and C.C. Sabathia, and Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce.
That probably says more about the rivalry than about free agency this year.
Meanwhile, 4 of the top 6 remain unsigned, but only 10 of the next 37. That includes the breaking news of Lowrie to the Mets, which could unlock Marwin Gonalez (2B is definitely his best position), Asdrubal Cabrera, and D.J. LeMahieu.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 13, 2019 1:19:26 GMT -5
So Jason Stark, a HOF guy in the baseball side of the media attacks the issue of fan interest and how the MLB slow off-seasons relates to it. The issue that I have been preaching on for a while now and people have been pretty snark about with me for a while on here about this issue. It's a issue that MANY on here have said that there's "no evidence that the fan interest to the game isn't related or tied to the slow MLB off-seasons."
You know, because we have seen a decline in world series ratings and attendance issues with zero or little explanations (the only reasoning for declining attendance was "supposedly" the weather).
Don't attack me this time, I didn't write the story. I kind of feel vindicated now that people are finally seeing my side of things with this issue. *HOF guys* this time. Go to Jason Stark who's seeing the same thing, you know, one of the very best at what he does-
Add- Maybe MLB isn't just having a hard time just "keeping a hold of *just* my attention after all?"
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 13, 2019 5:15:55 GMT -5
The players themselves are definitely not turning a blind eye to the real problem either.
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Post by jchang on Jan 13, 2019 7:03:16 GMT -5
I don’t have an issue with players earning what they are worth, but I don’t think it’s good for the game when a player with a proven track record flops after signing a long term deal. I would be happy if this offseason starts a trend of fewer long term deals, or less guaranteed money
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 13, 2019 12:37:11 GMT -5
PFF, I think you and maybe Buster Olney (don't have a subscription) are confusing the slow offseason with tanking teams not doing anything. I mean a team like Baltimore has done what this offseason?
Olney might have been implying this when he said "where, for many teams, it feels like NOTHING happened?" because nothing actually did happen for the tanking teams.
Baseball revenues also set a record last year as well.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 13, 2019 12:53:02 GMT -5
The Buster Olney tweet was a old tweet that I put back to back to Arrieta's tweet to show the relevance of it.
Every team besides maybe the Sox, Cubs, and Nationals have been cheap in recent years.
Ever since the Dodgers hired Friedman, they've been operating more like the Rays. The Cardinals haven't done anything significant in a while. Neither have the Braves or the Blue Jays. Heck, even the Angels haven't done much besides Upton since the Pujols contract. You can put Texas in this category too even though they are technically rebuilding.
These are teams that have spent in the past that aren't spending right now.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 13, 2019 13:03:41 GMT -5
Angels did sign Ohtani which was about the most exciting offseason event in years.
Also, the Mesa brothers should have gotten more attention, but it was Miami and it's hard to get excited about them.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 13, 2019 13:05:12 GMT -5
Angels did sign Ohtani which was about the most exciting offseason event in years. They did, and it cost them 23 million dollars to do it. It wasn't a hard decision to do that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 14, 2019 1:34:48 GMT -5
We know that Machado and Harper not signing clogs up the works.
A possible reason: based on the contracts given out so far to FA position players, they project to get AAV's of $27.2M and $26.6M respectively. That's less than they're reportedly asking.
Teams have been playing just $5.4M per projected position-player win (FanGraphs Depth Chart, which averages ZiPS and Steamer). And that's pulling out Nelson Cruz, Dozier, and Kinsler as outliers, else the figure would be even less. (Brantley's the one outlier in the other direction, because the projections don't know he's been hurt.)
I do believe there needs to be an early signing deadline in mid-December for elite free agents. It can't be for everyone, because if Machado signs just before midnight, Moustakas is screwed. You can have a second deadline: all multi-year contracts by mid-January, a month before ST.
You could take Depth Chart projections of 3.0+ WAR as the definition of elite (2.0 for relievers), plus anyone 2.0+ who is the best player at his position by a margin of > 0.5. Players would be able to appeal their status based on the projections not factoring in injury history.
That list this year is:
Corbin Keuchel Kimbrel Cruz (combining 1B and DH) Machado Donaldson Pollack Harper
(No one qualified with the 2.0+ rule: LeMahieu wasn't better enough than Lowrie, and in LF, McCutchen wasn't better enough than Bradley.)
As you can see, the top 5 unsigned guys are all here, and they're the consensus 1, 2, 4, 6, and 12 guys. In those consensus rankings, the next three unsigned guys are Marwin Gonzalez (Boras client), Ottavino (waiting on Kimbrel), and Moustakas (Boras client and waiting on Machado).
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Post by jchang on Jan 14, 2019 3:54:31 GMT -5
Wouldn’t Pom make this list based on his good 16 and 17 numbers?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 15, 2019 0:27:04 GMT -5
Wouldn’t Pom make this list based on his good 16 and 17 numbers? He's projected at 0.8 WAR. And he's 50th in the consensus FA rankings I threw together.
The idea is to identify the guys that will be news when they sign, and/or will alter the plans of other free agents when they do, and then make them sign first. Hence all the stars, and all the guys who aren't stars but are are clearly the best available guy at their position.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 16, 2019 14:20:28 GMT -5
We know that Machado and Harper not signing clogs up the works.
A possible reason: based on the contracts given out so far to FA position players, they project to get AAV's of $27.2M and $26.6M respectively. That's less than they're reportedly asking.
Teams have been playing just $5.4M per projected position-player win (FanGraphs Depth Chart, which averages ZiPS and Steamer). And that's pulling out Nelson Cruz, Dozier, and Kinsler as outliers, else the figure would be even less. (Brantley's the one outlier in the other direction, because the projections don't know he's been hurt.)
I do believe there needs to be an early signing deadline in mid-December for elite free agents. It can't be for everyone, because if Machado signs just before midnight, Moustakas is screwed. You can have a second deadline: all multi-year contracts by mid-January, a month before ST.
You could take Depth Chart projections of 3.0+ WAR as the definition of elite (2.0 for relievers), plus anyone 2.0+ who is the best player at his position by a margin of > 0.5. Players would be able to appeal their status based on the projections not factoring in injury history.
That list this year is:
Corbin Keuchel Kimbrel Cruz (combining 1B and DH) Machado Donaldson Pollack Harper
(No one qualified with the 2.0+ rule: LeMahieu wasn't better enough than Lowrie, and in LF, McCutchen wasn't better enough than Bradley.)
As you can see, the top 5 unsigned guys are all here, and they're the consensus 1, 2, 4, 6, and 12 guys. In those consensus rankings, the next three unsigned guys are Marwin Gonzalez (Boras client), Ottavino (waiting on Kimbrel), and Moustakas (Boras client and waiting on Machado).
The White Sox offer is reportedly for $25M a year, for 7 years.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 16, 2019 15:20:25 GMT -5
We know that Machado and Harper not signing clogs up the works.
A possible reason: based on the contracts given out so far to FA position players, they project to get AAV's of $27.2M and $26.6M respectively. That's less than they're reportedly asking.
Teams have been playing just $5.4M per projected position-player win (FanGraphs Depth Chart, which averages ZiPS and Steamer). And that's pulling out Nelson Cruz, Dozier, and Kinsler as outliers, else the figure would be even less. (Brantley's the one outlier in the other direction, because the projections don't know he's been hurt.)
I do believe there needs to be an early signing deadline in mid-December for elite free agents. It can't be for everyone, because if Machado signs just before midnight, Moustakas is screwed. You can have a second deadline: all multi-year contracts by mid-January, a month before ST.
You could take Depth Chart projections of 3.0+ WAR as the definition of elite (2.0 for relievers), plus anyone 2.0+ who is the best player at his position by a margin of > 0.5. Players would be able to appeal their status based on the projections not factoring in injury history.
That list this year is:
Corbin Keuchel Kimbrel Cruz (combining 1B and DH) Machado Donaldson Pollack Harper
(No one qualified with the 2.0+ rule: LeMahieu wasn't better enough than Lowrie, and in LF, McCutchen wasn't better enough than Bradley.)
As you can see, the top 5 unsigned guys are all here, and they're the consensus 1, 2, 4, 6, and 12 guys. In those consensus rankings, the next three unsigned guys are Marwin Gonzalez (Boras client), Ottavino (waiting on Kimbrel), and Moustakas (Boras client and waiting on Machado).
The White Sox offer is reportedly for $25M a year, for 7 years. What's a bit hilarious is that is barely more than Chris Davis' 7/$161M deal.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 16, 2019 15:36:14 GMT -5
Who "deserves" a bigger contract between the two? It's Machado, right? Has an easier path down the defensive spectrum as he ages, he's been more consistent, has been healthier. Age difference is 6 months. We obviously don't know what's going on behind closed doors, but the difference in the "public" offers of 10/300 for Harper and 7/175 for Machado surprises me.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 16, 2019 16:33:27 GMT -5
Who "deserves" a bigger contract between the two? It's Machado, right? Has an easier path down the defensive spectrum as he ages, he's been more consistent, has been healthier. Age difference is 6 months. We obviously don't know what's going on behind closed doors, but the difference in the "public" offers of 10/300 for Harper and 7/175 for Machado surprises me. I'd be surprised if 10/300 is on the table anymore.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 16, 2019 21:09:02 GMT -5
I don't get how you'd even enforce a deadline for certain free agents to sign contracts. If those players don't sign by a certain point, they're not allowed to play that year? How does that help anyone? It just doesn't make sense.
Maybe a deadline by which teams aren't allowed to sign players to contracts of greater than 3 years or something?
Perhaps an easier way to get to the same effect is that they institute a max contract in exchange for players getting to free agency a couple years earlier?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 17, 2019 0:06:06 GMT -5
I don't get how you'd even enforce a deadline for certain free agents to sign contracts. If those players don't sign by a certain point, they're not allowed to play that year? How does that help anyone? It just doesn't make sense. Maybe a deadline by which teams aren't allowed to sign players to contracts of greater than 3 years or something? Perhaps an easier way to get to the same effect is that they institute a max contract in exchange for players getting to free agency a couple years earlier? What I had in mind was a pair of deadlines for multi-year deals: 12/15 for elite FA's, and 1/15 for everyone else. After either deadline, one-year deals only.
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Post by soxcentral on Jan 17, 2019 7:29:34 GMT -5
If you do that you're going to have to create a minimum salary cap for teams as well, or something equivalent to that, because enforcing a deadline on its own gives even more leverage to teams over the players.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jan 18, 2019 8:22:14 GMT -5
This needs to happen too. Make the game better with small suttle changes. No more mound visits. Earpieces in the pitcher, catcher, and pitching coaches ear to get rid of sign stealing and laying down signs. Pitch clock. Extra inning games ending at some point.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 18, 2019 14:14:08 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 18, 2019 14:35:42 GMT -5
I have a hard time giving it a lot of credibility given their first big example being Grandal, who refused a 4/$60 million contract and wasn't even good enough to start in the playoffs. It was a good article, but I really disagree with the Grandal bit.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 18, 2019 16:07:07 GMT -5
Grandal has his limitations, but he's inarguably one of the top few offensive catchers in baseball and is a good pitch framer. There should have been more than ONE team offering him a multi-year deal. He essentially got the yips in the playoffs - "wasn't good enough to start" kind of oversells it.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 18, 2019 16:42:40 GMT -5
Grandal has his limitations, but he's inarguably one of the top few offensive catchers in baseball and is a good pitch framer. There should have been more than ONE team offering him a multi-year deal. He essentially got the yips in the playoffs - "wasn't good enough to start" kind of oversells it. Well that is a different point than saying he could only get a 1 year deal barely more than the qualifying offer. He got a $60 million offer and chose not to sign it. Maybe it was a little low, but I really don't think so considering he's 30. Johnathon Lucroy was one of the best catchers in baseball at age 30 2 years ago. Now at age 32, he got $3.4M for 1 year because that's all he's worth. Russell Martin and Brian McCann are other good examples of how catchers age really quickly.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jan 18, 2019 17:44:12 GMT -5
I have to agree that article is kinda crazy. 4 years 60 million is a very good offer for Grandal given his age and issues. Harper turned down 10 years 300 million, what would have been one of the biggest deals ever.
Two of the biggests deals ever in A-Rod and Stanton were traded because their teams couldn't afford them. Baseball is broken but Grandal and Harper aren't good examples. They should have taken the money and ran to the Bank! I kept saying who in their right mind would top 300 million over 10 years for Harper. It's like his expectations were simple too high given his production! He is Trout, heck he's not even Betts, and he's certainly not A-Rod!
If Machado can't get more than 25 million over 7 years that is a great example. If Kimbrel can't get a good 3-4 year deal that is a great example.
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