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4/16-4/17 Red Sox @ Yankees Series Thread
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2019 6:21:42 GMT -5
I really don't think the sox should trade anyone as valuable as Betts, JD, Sale, or even Benny or Bogey. If we do have to sell, I can see selling Holt, Thornburg, Moreland, Porcello, Nunez, Hembree, or other of those types (maybe Price, but his big contract would make it hard). But I don't think we need a long term rebuild, the way the Orioles did last year when they traded Machado. Plus, the Orioles knew they weren't going to get Machado back anyways. While it may not be a given, there is a good chance that we can re-sign Betts, and that JD does not opt out, but that chance would be hurt if we trade them. It's true, we have one of, if not the, worst farm systems in MLB. But trading a few guys isn't going to make us #1, and I think we need to do everything we can to keep our core here long term. I know that this is not a given, but it goes from definitely in the realm of possibilty to a faint chance if we trade them.
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Post by Smittyw on Apr 19, 2019 7:26:04 GMT -5
For Price to go there at this juncture seems really...strange. Don’t try to understand Price he just says things other people wouldn’t.
This would just be really defeatist stuff to hear coming out of the team's highest-paid player, and a guy who was riding a duckboat 5 months ago after becoming a World Series hero, after 19 games. I read a theory that he was trolling/mocking the media, which makes as much sense as anything else, so I'll go with that.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 7:41:15 GMT -5
Don’t try to understand Price he just says things other people wouldn’t. This would just be really defeatist stuff to hear coming out of the team's highest-paid player, and a guy who was riding a duckboat 5 months ago after becoming a World Series hero, after 19 games. I read a theory that he was trolling/mocking the media, which makes as much sense as anything else, so I'll go with that.
Trolling the media... by saying true things that everyone knows? Actually, that kind of tracks...
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Post by Smittyw on Apr 19, 2019 7:50:04 GMT -5
This would just be really defeatist stuff to hear coming out of the team's highest-paid player, and a guy who was riding a duckboat 5 months ago after becoming a World Series hero, after 19 games. I read a theory that he was trolling/mocking the media, which makes as much sense as anything else, so I'll go with that.
Trolling the media... by saying true things that everyone knows?
By lampooning the panic and overreaction that often prevails in this town when something goes wrong.
And no, I don't think it's a "true thing that everyone knows" that this very built-to-win-now team, which just gave out two big extensions to members of its core, is going to suddenly start tearing things down if we're out of it in July...
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 19, 2019 8:08:26 GMT -5
Trolling the media... by saying true things that everyone knows? By lampooning the panic and overreaction that often prevails in this town when something goes wrong. And no, I don't think it's a "true thing that everyone knows" that this very built-to-win-now team, which just gave out two big extensions to members of its core, is going to suddenly start tearing things down if we're out of it in July...
JD Martinez is likely to opt out to get more money. He's 31 years old. I don't know why trading him is so incomprehensible. In fact, I would love to see what they could get back. It would also free up funds to sign Mookie, but a small guy who wants 12 years is a scary proposition.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 19, 2019 8:46:07 GMT -5
Don’t try to understand Price he just says things other people wouldn’t.
This would just be really defeatist stuff to hear coming out of the team's highest-paid player, and a guy who was riding a duckboat 5 months ago after becoming a World Series hero, after 19 games. I read a theory that he was trolling/mocking the media, which makes as much sense as anything else, so I'll go with that.
He’s actually being pretty realistic and telling you how he (and probably others think)... the real take away here is that they are running out of time to turn things around. As things stand right now, they need to play at a 95 win pace the rest of the way to reach 90 wins... historically 90 wins should get you a wild card... last year it didn’t but that was with you winning 108 games so taking yourself out of the equation the Rays would have gotten in with 90. 95 wins is a really good year do basically they have to flip the switch right now and turn into a 95 win squad. Unfortunately, they have the best team in baseball this weekend so that makes it that much tougher to do. If they go this next week playing sub .500 again then that 95 win pace jumps even higher. They are on the precipice of being screwed in April.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 19, 2019 8:59:34 GMT -5
Trolling the media... by saying true things that everyone knows?
By lampooning the panic and overreaction that often prevails in this town when something goes wrong.
And no, I don't think it's a "true thing that everyone knows" that this very built-to-win-now team, which just gave out two big extensions to members of its core, is going to suddenly start tearing things down if we're out of it in July...
It makes a lot of sense.. you can “tear it down” this year and still regroup and rebuild for next season but with a much better farm system. Not to get too far ahead of things here but things like this: Porcello - if he starts pitching better you can trade him for a pretty good prospect to a team wanting to contend. He’s proven himself in the post season to be a valuable starter and bullpen arm at the same time. That will carry a lot of value. JDM - find out if he’s opting out or not. If he’s not sure then keep him but if he definitely is baring major injury then trade him (he should fetch a lot) then try and resign him anyways. Let him know you want to; if he opts out he’s going to highest bidder regardless so you really don’t lose much other than the other team falling in love and being willing to pay even more but that’s a gamble worth taking for the right package. Betts - now will be the time to deal him if you don’t think you’ll be able to resign him or if he’s going to highest bidder anyways. Give up a season (the half season here won’t matter because the team is out of it anyways) and get a massive prospect haul. When he hits free agency try and sign him - if you lose you would have lost anyways. Bradley - can look to deal him as well Moreland - if he carry’s his hot start then deal Him for as much as you can get (maybe a couple live arms for the pen) and let Travis or Chavis play for the rest of the year. Obviously, all these guys won’t get dealt but doing it makes a lot of sense - rebuild the system - suck the rest of the season to rebuild it even more in the draft, play some young guys to see what you have and in the offseason go To work. They probably can even get under the tax if they wanted to reset that.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 9:00:27 GMT -5
By lampooning the panic and overreaction that often prevails in this town when something goes wrong. And no, I don't think it's a "true thing that everyone knows" that this very built-to-win-now team, which just gave out two big extensions to members of its core, is going to suddenly start tearing things down if we're out of it in July...
JD Martinez is likely to opt out to get more money. He's 31 years old. I don't know why trading him is so incomprehensible. In fact, I would love to see what they could get back. It would also free up funds to sign Mookie, but a small guy who wants 12 years is a scary proposition. Is it, though? A small infielder, maybe.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 19, 2019 9:05:12 GMT -5
By lampooning the panic and overreaction that often prevails in this town when something goes wrong. And no, I don't think it's a "true thing that everyone knows" that this very built-to-win-now team, which just gave out two big extensions to members of its core, is going to suddenly start tearing things down if we're out of it in July...
JD Martinez is likely to opt out to get more money. He's 31 years old. I don't know why trading him is so incomprehensible. In fact, I would love to see what they could get back. It would also free up funds to sign Mookie, but a small guy who wants 12 years is a scary proposition. Probably not as much as you'd imagine. Detroit didn't get a helluva lot for JD Martinez when they traded him. I don't think you get a ton for rentals. Frankly, I'd like to see the Sox bring him back because I'd rather not go back to 2017 when they couldn't score enough runs and as it is now, the Red Sox are below average offensively in a lot of different positions. Rather see some of those get upgraded if possible rather than downgrading premium production. I wouldn't think it would cost a ton more to bring him back than what he's getting paid now. The Red Sox need a RH 2b to go with Holt again or take the position outright - can't have Nunez continually butchering 2b and being hactastic at the plate. They need Devers to develop and for JBJ to find the offense again. They really need to upgrade their catching, but it's slim pickings right now, and the Red Sox, as we know, just gave up a guy who might have upgraded the offense at that position.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 19, 2019 9:11:46 GMT -5
JD Martinez is likely to opt out to get more money. He's 31 years old. I don't know why trading him is so incomprehensible. In fact, I would love to see what they could get back. It would also free up funds to sign Mookie, but a small guy who wants 12 years is a scary proposition. Is it, though? A small infielder, maybe. Honestly, I would find any reason to be shook on a 12 year deal so take that with a grain of salt. Still, not sure where I could find examples of smaller outfielders who were consistently good into their mid-to-late 30s. One concerning trend I am seeing is that he seems to be an every-other-year with the bat. Not that he was bad 2 years ago, but his .803 OPS is a far cry from his .897 the year prior and his 1.078 the year after. Still plenty of time for him to end the year with an .850+ though so using 3 years as a sample isn't totally fair.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 19, 2019 9:18:15 GMT -5
Still, not sure where I could find examples of smaller outfielders who were consistently good into their mid-to-late 30s. Willie Mays, Carl Yastrzemski, Rickey Henderson...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 19, 2019 9:22:26 GMT -5
Still, not sure where I could find examples of smaller outfielders who were consistently good into their mid-to-late 30s. Willie Mays, Carl Yastrzemski, Rickey Henderson... Ichiro! Also, he's not actually that old yet, but Andrew McCutcheon's "decline" I think is proving to be not much more than a couple injuries and one bad ballpark.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 19, 2019 9:24:21 GMT -5
Still, not sure where I could find examples of smaller outfielders who were consistently good into their mid-to-late 30s. Willie Mays, Carl Yastrzemski, Rickey Henderson... Mookie Betts - 5'9, 180 lbs Carl Yastrzemski - 5'11, 175 lbs Willie Mays - 5'11, 180 lbs Rickey Henderson - 5'10, 195 lbs Ichiro Suzuki - 5'11, 175 lbs Well, now I have a baseline. Lock him up!
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 19, 2019 9:30:02 GMT -5
Willie Mays, Carl Yastrzemski, Rickey Henderson... Ichiro! Also, he's not actually that old yet, but Andrew McCutcheon's "decline" I think is proving to be not much more than a couple injuries and one bad ballpark. Getting McCutchen out of center field also helped a lot. Also, and this is beside the point, I always forget he's short.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 19, 2019 10:46:07 GMT -5
What's the premise of the idea that small guys age poorly, anyway? If anything, I would think big guys would be more vulnerable to losing a step and getting injured, what with their big old goofy lumbering bodies.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 19, 2019 11:21:46 GMT -5
What's the premise of the idea that small guys age poorly, anyway? If anything, I would think big guys would be more vulnerable to losing a step and getting injured, what with their big old goofy lumbering bodies. Small guys where so much of their value is tied up into speed and D, can really drop off a cliff when they start to lose that. The bigger home run hitters like Ortiz can still give you tons of value even when he can hardly run the bases. Now you have no clue when a player will start to decline, but it makes Betts a lot riskier than a guy like Trout in my book. It's not really size, but the skills that he uses to get his value.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 19, 2019 11:44:22 GMT -5
Betts' game doesn't rely on speed. The best part of his game is contact, which should age well.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 19, 2019 11:53:38 GMT -5
In Betts' case, it's probably a question of how well wrist-quickness ages.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 19, 2019 12:10:09 GMT -5
Betts' game doesn't rely on speed. The best part of his game is contact, which should age well. What? So much of his value comes from speed, his runs, his SBs, turning singles into doubles, and doubles into triples. Nevermind his D. If Betts was slow, even with his contact ability he goes from a 10 bwar player to a 5 bwar player.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 19, 2019 12:24:07 GMT -5
Betts' game doesn't rely on speed. The best part of his game is contact, which should age well. What? So much of his value comes from speed, his runs, his SBs, turning singles into doubles, and doubles into triples. Nevermind his D. If Betts was slow, even with his contact ability he goes from a 10 bwar player to a 5 bwar player. Saying Betts' speed alone is worth 5 WAR a year is... aggressive. Or, well, insane. That's an insane overestimation. Plus a lot of his baserunning ability seems to do with his excellent judgment, ability to read the hit ball, etc. That skill shouldn't decline at all with age.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Apr 19, 2019 12:48:18 GMT -5
What? So much of his value comes from speed, his runs, his SBs, turning singles into doubles, and doubles into triples. Nevermind his D. If Betts was slow, even with his contact ability he goes from a 10 bwar player to a 5 bwar player. Saying Betts' speed alone is worth 5 WAR a year is... aggressive. Or, well, insane. That's an insane overestimation. Plus a lot of his baserunning ability seems to do with his excellent judgment, ability to read the hit ball, etc. That skill shouldn't decline at all with age. It wasn't meant as exactly equal to that, but that's rather close and saying or acting like it's not a huge part of his game is crazy. Just look at Martinez, who has no speed. Like if Betts had Martinez speed, Martinez is the better player. Betts can't post last year's OPS without his speed and it's scary to think what Martinez would be like if he had great speed. Kinda shocked this is even a debate.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 19, 2019 12:59:07 GMT -5
Yeah, but speed doesn't typically fall off that much. See, e.g., the guys mentioned in this thread above - Mays, Rickey Henderson, Ichiro... Rickey stole 66 bases at age 39. Mays stole 23 at age 40. Ichiro stole 20 at age 39, 40 at age 37. Kenny Lofton maintained his speed-based game basically until the end of his career. Etc.
In short, Betts would have a long way to fall to be as slow as Martinez, and there's no reason to think he'd fall that much any time soon, if ever.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 19, 2019 13:12:53 GMT -5
Betts value as a hitter is with his quick twitch and wrists. I’m worried about his power dip not so much his speed.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 19, 2019 13:28:18 GMT -5
Willie Mays, Carl Yastrzemski, Rickey Henderson... Mookie Betts - 5'9, 180 lbs Carl Yastrzemski - 5'11, 175 lbs Willie Mays - 5'11, 180 lbs Rickey Henderson - 5'10, 195 lbs Ichiro Suzuki - 5'11, 175 lbs Well, now I have a baseline. Lock him up! Mel OttJim Wynn...there are lots of others.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 19, 2019 14:33:06 GMT -5
Saying Betts' speed alone is worth 5 WAR a year is... aggressive. Or, well, insane. That's an insane overestimation. Plus a lot of his baserunning ability seems to do with his excellent judgment, ability to read the hit ball, etc. That skill shouldn't decline at all with age. It wasn't meant as exactly equal to that, but that's rather close and saying or acting like it's not a huge part of his game is crazy. Just look at Martinez, who has no speed. Like if Betts had Martinez speed, Martinez is the better player. Betts can't post last year's OPS without his speed and it's scary to think what Martinez would be like if he had great speed. Kinda shocked this is even a debate. Betts was 151st of 549 in sprint speed according to statcast data in MLB in 2018. He's more quick than fast. If Mookie had Byron Buxton speed, he would have had a 14 win season last year. He's smarter than he is fast.
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