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6/4-6/6 Red Sox @ Royals Series Thread
atzar
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Post by atzar on Jun 4, 2019 22:13:39 GMT -5
We’re a hearty sneeze away from two HRs tonight.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 4, 2019 22:14:45 GMT -5
Devers is so amazing to watch hit. He hits any ball in any possible direction, all hard.
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atzar
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Post by atzar on Jun 4, 2019 22:34:24 GMT -5
Good win!
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Post by telson13 on Jun 4, 2019 22:36:45 GMT -5
Devers is so amazing to watch hit. He hits any ball in any possible direction, all hard. 3 EVs over 102. Finally the data to back up those “the ball makes a different sound off of his bat” claims from his amateur days/early pro career. Post-hype sleeper waking up.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 4, 2019 22:42:59 GMT -5
I will never chip on one of our guys for hitting a HR, esp a guy like Nuñez, but this will get Cora to start him now. To be honest, Chavis' shine is starting to wear off. He seems more like Wade Middlebrooks than a starting 2B lately. And that's definitely not an endorsement of starting Nunez. As long as Holt is getting the long side of the platoon, I'll be happy. He’s an adjustment away, though. It’s been several weeks since the high heat was id’d as a weakness, now it’s on him to lay off. Rafi looked pretty bad for a lot of last year. I’m inclined to wait on Chavis and see how he handles it.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 4, 2019 22:46:43 GMT -5
Workman - only 8 hits in 27 innings pitched. Super efficient...having a quietly outstanding season, something we were not counting on. He continues to hit his spots; I still contend the walks are a product of him simply putting the ball (especially 4FB) where he wants, which is often the edges or close but out of the zone. Walden continues to pitch well, too. Slight bump in the road but almost exclusively 94-95 tonight with all varieties of FB and a continued unpredictable mix with the SL. Two terrific if unexpected seasons so far.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 4, 2019 22:54:39 GMT -5
Chavis has been insanely hot for awhile. He's not even suppose to be in the majors. I'm far from worried yet. He just won rookie of the month.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 4, 2019 23:03:03 GMT -5
Good and needed win. Hopefully the Sox sweep KC. They're an awful team. Gotta beat up the awful teams and take series from the bad teams.
Chavis is cold, but the concern with him is the big K rate. I think Chavis will be an effective player the rest of the year but I would anticipate the BA coming down to around .240. He'll still draw his walks and hit his homers so the OPS will still be good.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 4, 2019 23:11:10 GMT -5
To be honest, Chavis' shine is starting to wear off. He seems more like Wade Middlebrooks than a starting 2B lately. And that's definitely not an endorsement of starting Nunez. As long as Holt is getting the long side of the platoon, I'll be happy. He’s an adjustment away, though. It’s been several weeks since the high heat was id’d as a weakness, now it’s on him to lay off. Rafi looked pretty bad for a lot of last year. I’m inclined to wait on Chavis and see how he handles it. Bingo. That is really the main difference in Devers this year and last year. Devers hit the ball insanely hard last year too. This year he, so far, has a way better approach.
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Post by telson13 on Jun 5, 2019 0:01:40 GMT -5
He’s an adjustment away, though. It’s been several weeks since the high heat was id’d as a weakness, now it’s on him to lay off. Rafi looked pretty bad for a lot of last year. I’m inclined to wait on Chavis and see how he handles it. Bingo. That is really the main difference in Devers this year and last year. Devers hit the ball insanely hard last year too. This year he, so far, has a way better approach. In fairness, Devers is a better hitter, so I don’t expect Chavis to be getting to 103-mph fastballs at the letters. But just like Rafi, I think he’ll make and adjustment and learn to lay off fastballs he can’t drive. Even if he can just learn to foul off high strikes and lay off stuff out of the zone (and that’s easier said than done), he should still be a productive hitter. My guess is he settles in roughly around where he is now, maybe a slightly lower BA, but I think the isoD stays in the .080-.100 range and IsoP somewhere in the .200-.250. That’s a good hitter, especially at 2b where he’s essentially been average. He’s still only 23, so I don’t think we see the “real” Chavis for 1-3 years. I think most likely he settles in as a 2-3 WAR player as long as he stays at 2b; I still think there’s upside beyond that, in the vein of my original Dan Uggla comp. He’s at his best going all-fields and he makes very hard contact. Joey Gallo is the most recent poster boy for lots of swing-and-miss still becoming a pretty good hitter, as he’s hitting more LD; Cody Bellinger has taken off in a huge way after halving his K rate (he was a “45 hit” guy per fg in the minors), and Hunter Dozier has become a much more dangerous hitter by being selectively aggressive. There’s plenty of room, and time, for Chavis to pull it together. Hell, looking at Bogey’s extended development and evolving approach should be of some comfort. He’s been all over the map before settling in now as a guy who takes his walks, crushes his pitches, and goes with stuff away when the situation calls for it. He did each separately over several seasons, but the last two he’s shown an ability to merge them all. At 23, nothing’s written in stone.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 5, 2019 0:33:37 GMT -5
Of the team's first 48 homers, six were either 3-run shots or grand slams that seriously impacted the game (pulled us within one, tied the score or put us in the lead, or blew open a 1-run game).
The next 38? Zero. In fact, there were 29 solo homers, 7 2-run jobs (only one of which had serious impact), and just 2 3-run homers.
You know things are trending up when Eduardo Nunez ends that drought, and as a pinch-hitter to boot.
Nunez's first ever pinch-hit homer was the nearly identical three-run job in WS game 1 (bottom of the 7th, also with the Sox leading just by 1). He now has two PH homers of his last three, after 0 in 57 (including post-season).
However, dramatic 3-run homers are his specialty. Game-tying, tie-breaking, meaningless, tie-breaking, tie-breaking, 1-run lead in WS, 1 run lead in 8th. That's a pretty good set for a guy with just 60 total.
He's never been a good pinch-hitter in his career previously -- but is now 3/6, HR, BB this year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 5, 2019 2:01:22 GMT -5
Chavis has been insanely hot for awhile. He's not even suppose to be in the majors. I'm far from worried yet. He just won rookie of the month. Bingo. That is really the main difference in Devers this year and last year. Devers hit the ball insanely hard last year too. This year he, so far, has a way better approach. In fairness, Devers is a better hitter, so I don’t expect Chavis to be getting to 103-mph fastballs at the letters. But just like Rafi, I think he’ll make and adjustment and learn to lay off fastballs he can’t drive. Even if he can just learn to foul off high strikes and lay off stuff out of the zone (and that’s easier said than done), he should still be a productive hitter. My guess is he settles in roughly around where he is now, maybe a slightly lower BA, but I think the isoD stays in the .080-.100 range and IsoP somewhere in the .200-.250. That’s a good hitter, especially at 2b where he’s essentially been average. He’s still only 23, so I don’t think we see the “real” Chavis for 1-3 years. I think most likely he settles in as a 2-3 WAR player as long as he stays at 2b; I still think there’s upside beyond that, in the vein of my original Dan Uggla comp. He’s at his best going all-fields and he makes very hard contact. Joey Gallo is the most recent poster boy for lots of swing-and-miss still becoming a pretty good hitter, as he’s hitting more LD; Cody Bellinger has taken off in a huge way after halving his K rate (he was a “45 hit” guy per fg in the minors), and Hunter Dozier has become a much more dangerous hitter by being selectively aggressive. There’s plenty of room, and time, for Chavis to pull it together. Hell, looking at Bogey’s extended development and evolving approach should be of some comfort. He’s been all over the map before settling in now as a guy who takes his walks, crushes his pitches, and goes with stuff away when the situation calls for it. He did each separately over several seasons, but the last two he’s shown an ability to merge them all. At 23, nothing’s written in stone. I just spent way too much time at Brooks looking at his pitch data.
Through May 24th, he had seen 52.2% fastballs. Of those, 11.5% were over the zone but high, and he had swing at 10 of the 30 and missed 8.
Since May 25, he has seen 66.4% fastballs. Of those, 14.5% were over the zone but high, and he had swung at 5 of the 12 and missed them all. However, he swung at 3 of the last 5.
Trying to get him to chase high actually started on the 26th against Verlander. But it was the Yankee series where it first became a problem.
This weakness is not the cause of his decline; it's a result. He had a 1.236 OPS through May 4 in 58 PA and a 729 in 55 PA from May 5 to May 20, and the difference in this weak spot was two extra pitches thrown, both of which he missed.
He cooled off because he started fouling off or even missing pitches he had been barreling. Chasing out of the zone goes back three or four games and is likely the result of frustration and pressing. In the Verlander game he laid off 4 of the 6.
We have seen how good he is when his swing is right and how mediocre he is when it isn't. We don't have much of an idea about his hot / cold percentage going forward. But he has serious tools.
Context: Devers since 4/15 has swing at 22 of 45 fastballs up. Xander, 23 of 37. Chavis is still well below those rates.
Mookie swung at 31 out of 151 last year and 15 of 67 this year.
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Post by huskies15 on Jun 5, 2019 8:29:40 GMT -5
Mookie is essentially putting up his 2017 season right now. He has a higher walk rate, but his baserunning and defense have been less impactful than expected. Odd year.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2019 11:29:47 GMT -5
Every win is a GREAT WIN!
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kevfc89
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Post by kevfc89 on Jun 5, 2019 12:07:08 GMT -5
There's a difference between Devers last year and Chavis this year with the high fastball. Devers did tend to chase high pitches last year to his detriment. But they were usually high pitches way up out of the zone, pitches that are obviously hard to make contact with. When Devers stopped offering at those, his walk rate started to rise and the K's have dropped; but Devers always had a much better hit tool than Chavis to begin with.
On Chavis, his hole is like, a few inches higher than middle of the plate. Pitchers are getting him out with fastballs only slightly above the zone that are strikes. If he lays off them, they are strikes; if he swings, it seems he cannot get on plane with those pitches, so it's often a miss.
I wonder, with Holt back now and looking good, when Moreland gets off the DL should the Sox send Chavis down to Pawtucket for a bit? They could give him specific instructions on what to work on, the swing and miss particularly on middle-high fastballs.
He's never going to be able to work on what look like some needed changes to his swing at the big league level where performance matters.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 5, 2019 12:15:07 GMT -5
There's a difference between Devers last year and Chavis this year with the high fastball. Devers did tend to chase high pitches last year to his detriment. But they were usually high pitches way up out of the zone, pitches that are obviously hard to make contact with. When Devers stopped offering at those, his walk rate started to rise and the K's have dropped; but Devers always had a much better hit tool than Chavis to begin with. On Chavis, his hole is like, a few inches higher than middle of the plate. Pitchers are getting him out with fastballs only slightly above the zone that are strikes. If he lays off them, they are strikes; if he swings, it seems he cannot get on plane with those pitches, so it's often a miss. I wonder, with Holt back now and looking good, when Moreland gets off the DL should the Sox send Chavis down to Pawtucket for a bit? They could give him specific instructions on what to work on, the swing and miss particularly on middle-high fastballs. He's never going to be able to work on what look like some needed changes to his swing at the big league level where performance matters. I think the hole in Chavis' swing is any fastball that is in the upper third of the zone. So pitchers can still throw strikes and not worry about it. His walk rate has cratered. I'm not sure what he can do to fix it to be honest. If I could sell high on him right now, I'd strongly consider it, but other teams are probably all well aware.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 5, 2019 12:30:48 GMT -5
There's a difference between Devers last year and Chavis this year with the high fastball. Devers did tend to chase high pitches last year to his detriment. But they were usually high pitches way up out of the zone, pitches that are obviously hard to make contact with. When Devers stopped offering at those, his walk rate started to rise and the K's have dropped; but Devers always had a much better hit tool than Chavis to begin with. On Chavis, his hole is like, a few inches higher than middle of the plate. Pitchers are getting him out with fastballs only slightly above the zone that are strikes. If he lays off them, they are strikes; if he swings, it seems he cannot get on plane with those pitches, so it's often a miss. I wonder, with Holt back now and looking good, when Moreland gets off the DL should the Sox send Chavis down to Pawtucket for a bit? They could give him specific instructions on what to work on, the swing and miss particularly on middle-high fastballs. He's never going to be able to work on what look like some needed changes to his swing at the big league level where performance matters. I think the hole in Chavis' swing is any fastball that is in the upper third of the zone. So pitchers can still throw strikes and not worry about it. His walk rate has cratered. I'm not sure what he can do to fix it to be honest. If I could sell high on him right now, I'd strongly consider it, but other teams are probably all well aware. Again, this was totally predictable. It's what happens with almost every rookie who gets called up - the league finds their weakness and exploits it. And then it's on the player to adjust. What can he do to fix it? Well, he can shrink the hole in his swing. He can stop pressing and guessing, like ericvman suggests he's been doing (and which it looks like he's been doing to me too). His worst swings that I've noticed are where he's chasing breaking balls out of the zone, and if he could stop doing that he could probably live with the hole in the top of the zone and feast on breaking stuff and fastballs that miss their spots. Will he be able to do that? We'll see! But the results he had in the last two years in the minors and his hot start with Boston this year have me cautiously optimistic.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 5, 2019 12:32:51 GMT -5
I think the hole in Chavis' swing is any fastball that is in the upper third of the zone. So pitchers can still throw strikes and not worry about it. His walk rate has cratered. I'm not sure what he can do to fix it to be honest. If I could sell high on him right now, I'd strongly consider it, but other teams are probably all well aware. Again, this was totally predictable. It's what happens with almost every rookie who gets called up - the league finds their weakness and exploits it. And then it's on the player to adjust. What can he do to fix it? Well, he can shrink the hole in his swing. He can stop pressing and guessing, like ericvman suggests he's been doing (and which it looks like he's been doing to me too). His worst swings that I've noticed are where he's chasing breaking balls out of the zone, and if he could stop doing that he could probably live with the hole in the top of the zone and feast on breaking stuff and fastballs that miss their spots. Will he be able to do that? We'll see! But the results he had in the last two years in the minors and his hot start with Boston this year have me cautiously optimistic. It's just that it's a much bigger hole. Most players have trouble recognizing offspeed that is off the plate and learn to not swing at them like JBJ, Xander and even Mookie dealt with for awhile. Chavis has to learn to actually make contact on strikes.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 5, 2019 12:50:47 GMT -5
Again, this was totally predictable. It's what happens with almost every rookie who gets called up - the league finds their weakness and exploits it. And then it's on the player to adjust. What can he do to fix it? Well, he can shrink the hole in his swing. He can stop pressing and guessing, like ericvman suggests he's been doing (and which it looks like he's been doing to me too). His worst swings that I've noticed are where he's chasing breaking balls out of the zone, and if he could stop doing that he could probably live with the hole in the top of the zone and feast on breaking stuff and fastballs that miss their spots. Will he be able to do that? We'll see! But the results he had in the last two years in the minors and his hot start with Boston this year have me cautiously optimistic. It's just that it's a much bigger hole. Most players have trouble recognizing offspeed that is off the plate and learn to not swing at them like JBJ, Xander and even Mookie dealt with for awhile. Chavis has to learn to actually make contact on strikes. Well here my knowledge reaches its limit. How does his hole compare to those of other guys who have come up?* Is it much bigger? Who else has had to make adjustments comparable to what Chavis would have to make? Like, it's true that if he doesn't do anything at all about his weaknesses that he will have trouble sticking in the majors. But even if he can just expand his hot zone a couple of inches or something that would force pitchers to hit their spots precisely or else he'll either draw a walk or hit a 450-foot homer. *phrasing
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 5, 2019 13:15:33 GMT -5
It's those red spots up in the strike zone that need to get a lot less red. The problem is that his problem is with fastballs, which just about every pitcher in the majors can throw and command.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 5, 2019 14:03:27 GMT -5
I think the hole in Chavis' swing is any fastball that is in the upper third of the zone. So pitchers can still throw strikes and not worry about it. His walk rate has cratered. I'm not sure what he can do to fix it to be honest. If I could sell high on him right now, I'd strongly consider it, but other teams are probably all well aware. Again, this was totally predictable. It's what happens with almost every rookie who gets called up - the league finds their weakness and exploits it. And then it's on the player to adjust. What can he do to fix it? Well, he can shrink the hole in his swing. He can stop pressing and guessing, like ericvman suggests he's been doing (and which it looks like he's been doing to me too). His worst swings that I've noticed are where he's chasing breaking balls out of the zone, and if he could stop doing that he could probably live with the hole in the top of the zone and feast on breaking stuff and fastballs that miss their spots. Will he be able to do that? We'll see! But the results he had in the last two years in the minors and his hot start with Boston this year have me cautiously optimistic. They knew the weakness from the beginning. There's no evident correlation between how much they went after his weak spot and how well he hit.
When he's going well, he lays off the pitches that miss a bit high and destroys the pitches that miss low. When he's going well, he lays off the pitches that miss high just as well, but he does nothing with the pitches that miss low into what should be his sweet spot.
There's no approach adjustment involved on either side. He needs to adjust his swing mechanics in order to crush mistakes instead of fouling them back. This is basically every MLB hitter's metaphysical status and nature.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 5, 2019 15:06:52 GMT -5
Again, this was totally predictable. It's what happens with almost every rookie who gets called up - the league finds their weakness and exploits it. And then it's on the player to adjust. What can he do to fix it? Well, he can shrink the hole in his swing. He can stop pressing and guessing, like ericvman suggests he's been doing (and which it looks like he's been doing to me too). His worst swings that I've noticed are where he's chasing breaking balls out of the zone, and if he could stop doing that he could probably live with the hole in the top of the zone and feast on breaking stuff and fastballs that miss their spots. Will he be able to do that? We'll see! But the results he had in the last two years in the minors and his hot start with Boston this year have me cautiously optimistic. They knew the weakness from the beginning. There's no evident correlation between how much they went after his weak spot and how well he hit. When he's going well, he lays off the pitches that miss a bit high and destroys the pitches that miss low. When he's going well, he lays off the pitches that miss high just as well, but he does nothing with the pitches that miss low into what should be his sweet spot. There's no approach adjustment involved on either side. He needs to adjust his swing mechanics in order to crush mistakes instead of fouling them back. This is basically every MLB hitter's metaphysical status and nature.
He is getting more fastballs now than he did when he first came up and he's also whiffing on more. I realize June is a pretty limited sample size.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 5, 2019 15:07:56 GMT -5
Again, this was totally predictable. It's what happens with almost every rookie who gets called up - the league finds their weakness and exploits it. And then it's on the player to adjust. What can he do to fix it? Well, he can shrink the hole in his swing. He can stop pressing and guessing, like ericvman suggests he's been doing (and which it looks like he's been doing to me too). His worst swings that I've noticed are where he's chasing breaking balls out of the zone, and if he could stop doing that he could probably live with the hole in the top of the zone and feast on breaking stuff and fastballs that miss their spots. Will he be able to do that? We'll see! But the results he had in the last two years in the minors and his hot start with Boston this year have me cautiously optimistic. They knew the weakness from the beginning. There's no evident correlation between how much they went after his weak spot and how well he hit.
When he's going well, he lays off the pitches that miss a bit high and destroys the pitches that miss low. When he's going well, he lays off the pitches that miss high just as well, but he does nothing with the pitches that miss low into what should be his sweet spot.
There's no approach adjustment involved on either side. He needs to adjust his swing mechanics in order to crush mistakes instead of fouling them back. This is basically every MLB hitter's metaphysical status and nature.
So is your view, contra jimed, that the hole in his swing is not debilitating - that he can work around it by having good strike zone judgment and making solid contact when he does swing?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 5, 2019 15:24:54 GMT -5
dmaineah is pumped after hearing this somewhere.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 5, 2019 15:34:41 GMT -5
Also, if anything, Eduardo is the Sox good luck charm or rabbits foot on the mound when he pitches.
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