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6/7-6/9 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 8, 2019 13:10:30 GMT -5
It clearly is going to be Sam Travis day (or at least game)!
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2019 13:11:19 GMT -5
When the team is playing like crap, the Sox deserved to get bashed. They are down 3-0 and have lost 7 out of their last 13 games. You can use stats to look anyway you want to. Boston fans have expectations of greatness. Go root for the Royals if you only want yahoos who only show up when they are winning. Go play MLB the show on easy mode if you expect your team to win as much as you want them to. You don't understand baseball at all. Because 180 million dollar teams should be playing nearly .500 ball on June 8th and have a losing record to winning teams, not having one in over a month. They've had every opportunity to ease concerns and have failed every opportunity losing to the Astros, Indians, Yankees and now Rays, but they did beat the worst team in baseball for 3 straight. Contrary to popular belief, I am rooting for them and I'd like to look back at the odds they had to overcome to get there, but it's less and less and less likely with every game that goes by.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 8, 2019 13:13:15 GMT -5
Yeah and you complained non-stop through a 108 win season too. If they were as good as you expected them to be, they would have won 140 games. Nope, pretty much was a dead message board by mid August after the sweep.
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Jun 8, 2019 13:13:50 GMT -5
Can't see how this call sticks.
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Post by danredhawk on Jun 8, 2019 13:14:30 GMT -5
They are better than this (as we saw last year). Winning 108 games, dominating from start to finish and cruising through the post season didn’t stop the same cast of characters from moaning and groaning at every turn and claiming the sky was doomed to fall with every loss last season, either... And any argument to the contrary is a complete lack of awareness by those doing the complaining. At least own your stuff... Just responding to you, not lumping you in...
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2019 13:15:11 GMT -5
Go play MLB the show on easy mode if you expect your team to win as much as you want them to. You don't understand baseball at all. Because 180 million dollar teams should be playing nearly .500 ball on June 8th and have a losing record to winning teams, not having one in over a month. They've had every opportunity to ease concerns and have failed every opportunity losing to the Astros, Indians, Yankees and now Rays, but they did beat the worst team in baseball for 3 straight. Contrary to popular belief, I am rooting for them and I'd like to look back at the odds they had to overcome to get there, but it's less and less and less likely with every game that goes by. You've said repeatedly that you want them to miss the WC and sell by the deadline. So no, you don't want them to win.
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bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Jun 8, 2019 13:15:29 GMT -5
Can't see how this call sticks. I think he popped off the base.
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atzar
Veteran
Posts: 1,817
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Post by atzar on Jun 8, 2019 13:16:19 GMT -5
I stand corrected. Great play by JBJ and Bogaerts.
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Post by 180054giant on Jun 8, 2019 13:16:32 GMT -5
Just terrible base running
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2019 13:17:20 GMT -5
They are better than this (as we saw last year). Winning 108 games, dominating from start to finish and cruising through the post season didn’t stop the same cast of characters from moaning and groaning at every turn and claiming the sky was doomed to fall with every loss last season, either... I wasn't around much on here, but called places like the baseball reporters and other forums to blast the contrarian attitudes. I personally was worried about Sale and the way they managed the bullpen in the postseason was different and it worked. It was masterful how cora managed.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Jun 8, 2019 13:17:35 GMT -5
They are better than this (as we saw last year). Winning 108 games, dominating from start to finish and cruising through the post season didn’t stop the same cast of characters from moaning and groaning at every turn and claiming the sky was doomed to fall with every loss last season, either... It's a read and react world.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2019 13:19:54 GMT -5
Because 180 million dollar teams should be playing nearly .500 ball on June 8th and have a losing record to winning teams, not having one in over a month. They've had every opportunity to ease concerns and have failed every opportunity losing to the Astros, Indians, Yankees and now Rays, but they did beat the worst team in baseball for 3 straight. Contrary to popular belief, I am rooting for them and I'd like to look back at the odds they had to overcome to get there, but it's less and less and less likely with every game that goes by. You've said repeatedly that you want them to miss the WC and sell by the deadline. So no, you don't want them to win. Oh, yes, I want them to have a stacked farm system because this team who has been terrible all year sans like a 3 week stretch to be strong for future seasons. I want to be wrong, I just don't think I am. You need to relax man.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2019 13:21:25 GMT -5
You've said repeatedly that you want them to miss the WC and sell by the deadline. So no, you don't want them to win. Oh, yes, I want them to have a stacked farm system because this team who has been terrible all year sans like a 3 week stretch to be strong for future seasons. I want to be wrong, I just don't think I am. You need to relax man. So you're rooting for them to lose with 99 games left in the season while they're already tied for the #2 WC spot. And I'm the unreasonable one. Even your fellow complainers think you're nuts.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 8, 2019 13:22:57 GMT -5
Probably best not to feed the trolls.
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Post by kevfc89 on Jun 8, 2019 13:22:57 GMT -5
just throw it down the middle and you can get Chavis to swing and miss : /
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2019 13:24:27 GMT -5
Probably best not to feed the trolls. Are the trolls the ones who want the Red Sox to lose or the ones who want them to win?
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,410
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Post by radiohix on Jun 8, 2019 13:24:37 GMT -5
just throw it down the middle and you can get Chavis to swing and miss : / Free Josh Ockimey!
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2019 13:24:48 GMT -5
Oh, yes, I want them to have a stacked farm system because this team who has been terrible all year sans like a 3 week stretch to be strong for future seasons. I want to be wrong, I just don't think I am. You need to relax man. So you're rooting for them to lose with 99 games left in the season while they're already tied for the #2 WC spot. And I'm the unreasonable one. Tied for WC2 with not a great chance of WC1 or the division. Tied with 1 team who have 2 games in hand and are ahead of two others by 1 game and two more by 3.5. That's a lot of risk needing to keep your head over 4 teams just to be on the road for a 1-game playoff against a potentially a shutdown starter or a Yankees team that can absolutely mash. I will caveat and say that a 1-game playoff against the Yankees would be wild.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2019 13:27:04 GMT -5
So you're rooting for them to lose with 99 games left in the season while they're already tied for the #2 WC spot. And I'm the unreasonable one. Tied for WC2 with not a great chance of WC1 or the division. Tied with 1 team who have 2 games in hand and are ahead of two others by 1 game and two more by 3.5. That's a lot of risk needing to keep your head over 4 teams just to be on the road for a 1-game playoff against a potentially a shutdown starter or a Yankees team that can absolutely mash. I will caveat and say that a 1-game playoff against the Yankees would be wild. You take a playoff berth every single f'ing time you can get one because anything can happen in the playoffs. And Red Sox have a high contact team which generally does better than a three true outcome team in the playoffs. They also have dominant starting pitching.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2019 13:32:58 GMT -5
Tied for WC2 with not a great chance of WC1 or the division. Tied with 1 team who have 2 games in hand and are ahead of two others by 1 game and two more by 3.5. That's a lot of risk needing to keep your head over 4 teams just to be on the road for a 1-game playoff against a potentially a shutdown starter or a Yankees team that can absolutely mash. I will caveat and say that a 1-game playoff against the Yankees would be wild. You take a playoff berth every single f'ing time you can get one because anything can happen in the playoffs. And Red Sox have a high contact team which generally does better than a three true outcome team in the playoffs. They also have dominant starting pitching. Who have they dominated with that offense and pitching? We haven't even gotten into Sale's second half swoon and the Red Sox top talents have been all healthy. Literally anything can happen in a 1-game series. A bad bounce can end your season just as much as it can save your season. I don't love the idea of facing Snell or Glasnow, but sure they could fall apart between now and then. The Yankees have a much better lineup than you, especially when healthy. Today is an example of the failure to build depth with this team. I don't trust they are capable of an extended run. Would love to be wrong, but this team is what they are. And if I don't think this team will beat NY, TB, Houston, LA, or whomever, then what's the point of just squeaking in? Could they have a miracle run? Sure. I just wouldn't want to waste assets on building a superior team long term to just get in and get bounced. This team isn't the Pirates who would be just happy to be there.
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bosox
Veteran
Posts: 2,117
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Post by bosox on Jun 8, 2019 13:33:59 GMT -5
The Rays base running has really helped out the Sox.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jun 8, 2019 13:35:32 GMT -5
Ladies and gents, Ryan Yarborough, he of 34 IP (now 37) and a 6.23 ERA (now 5.73) - 1 unearned run on 2 hits. Wow.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2019 13:35:34 GMT -5
You take a playoff berth every single f'ing time you can get one because anything can happen in the playoffs. And Red Sox have a high contact team which generally does better than a three true outcome team in the playoffs. They also have dominant starting pitching. Who have they dominated with that offense and pitching? We haven't even gotten into Sale's second half swoon and the Red Sox top talents have been all healthy. Literally anything can happen in a 1-game series. A bad bounce can end your season just as much as it can save your season. I don't love the idea of facing Snell or Glasnow, but sure they could fall apart between now and then. The Yankees have a much better lineup than you, especially when healthy. Today is an example of the failure to build depth with this team. I don't trust they are capable of an extended run. Would love to be wrong, but this team is what they are. As bad as you seem to think they have been, they are still tied for a WC berth. And everyone f'ing knows but you that they'll be better. To not make the playoffs, they'll have to be worse than they already are.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 8, 2019 13:44:38 GMT -5
Who have they dominated with that offense and pitching? We haven't even gotten into Sale's second half swoon and the Red Sox top talents have been all healthy. Literally anything can happen in a 1-game series. A bad bounce can end your season just as much as it can save your season. I don't love the idea of facing Snell or Glasnow, but sure they could fall apart between now and then. The Yankees have a much better lineup than you, especially when healthy. Today is an example of the failure to build depth with this team. I don't trust they are capable of an extended run. Would love to be wrong, but this team is what they are. As bad as you seem to think they have been, they are still tied for a WC berth. And everyone f'ing knows but you that they'll be better. To not make the playoffs, they'll have to be worse than they already are. They're tied for a playoff berth that was recently added. They're vying for the extended berth against other mediocre, nearly .500 teams. They're not playing well and are just lagging behind other teams. They're hanging on by a thread because everyone else for that second spot is also around your level of play, not great. If they lose this game, they'll be a whooping 2 games over .500. If they lose tonight they'll be 1 game over. They're looking at 1 game over .500 by June 8th. At some point you have to start looking at it for what it has been all year. They can't beat good teams. They're losing just about all tie breakers. The Yankees, Dodgers, Astros all had good seasons last year and are able to carry it over. You haven't been and it all started with a poor attitude in Spring Training.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2019 13:49:47 GMT -5
As bad as you seem to think they have been, they are still tied for a WC berth. And everyone f'ing knows but you that they'll be better. To not make the playoffs, they'll have to be worse than they already are. They're tied for a playoff berth that was recently added. They're vying for the extended berth against other mediocre, nearly .500 teams. They're not playing well and are just lagging behind other teams. They're hanging on by a thread because everyone else for that second spot is also around your level of play, not great. If they lose this game, they'll be a whooping 2 games over .500. If they lose tonight they'll be 1 game over. They're looking at 1 game over .500 by June 8th. At some point you have to start looking at it for what it has been all year. They can't beat good teams. They're losing just about all tie breakers. The Yankees, Dodgers, Astros all had good seasons last year and are able to carry it over. You haven't been and it all started with a poor attitude in Spring Training. So what? They can't possibly win a 1 game playoff with a Chris Sale who shouldn't be swooning because he didn't really start pitching until May? Also, please refute this post using stats only: This is mind-blowing and very straightforward. Obviously, you can predict season Win% based on wOBA and wOBA allowed. That's the number of wins you'd expect from the raw stats.
I just derived a neat formula for doing just that, from the last three years of Statcast data.
[Geekage aside: particularly interesting is that wOBA allowed is not linear; at the extreme low end you get diminishing returns, and at the extreme high the effect of bad pitching is muted. This is unsurprising because inconsistent pitching -- which raises your overall wOBA allowed relative to median -- has less of a negative effect on wins than expected. And the reason this shows up only for pitching is that your worst pitchers appear disproportionately in games you're already losing, while you tend to use the same hitters regardless of score. So a team like the 2018 Astros, who are so deep that their garbage-time pitchers are good, don't get any benefit from keeping those lost games closer.]
It turns out that raw stats explain 86.5% of win totals; the rest is situational karma, balls scored as errors, and other stuff that doesn't show up in wOBA, such as GDP, CS, and other baserunning, on both offense and defense. Last year the Sox raw numbers had them as a 98.7 win team. If you use xwOBA, you get 101.0. No team in MLB had a bigger positive differential, what Bill James calls Win Efficiency. Interestingly, the Sox in 2017 were second in MLB in Win Efficiency. So, how about our numbers since the 6-13 start (excluding today)? wOBA has us with 28.7 wins. Call it 29, and that's three games we've lost due to bad Win Efficiency. Since it's less impressive in this case, let's go to to xwOBA as more predictive. Since the slow start, the raw xwOBA numbers have us on a 107.0 win pace. We're putting up much better numbers than last year. And without Eovaldi.
Let's compare the ball we've played since the slow start with last year, both by wOBA and xwOBA. Let's use wins for last year and season's pace for this year. wOBA: 12.0 wins better than last year, but -19.9 Win Efficiency. xwOBA: 6.0 wins better, but -13.7 Win Efficiency. There's no reason not to expect Win Efficiiency going forward to be below zero. So here's the bottom-line fact: since the slow start, we've had 107.0-win quality PA and PA allowed. While filling in Eovaldi's rotation slot with odds and ends.
Winning 100 games seems completely doable.
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