jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,988
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Post by jimoh on Nov 3, 2021 9:18:07 GMT -5
Kimbrel fell apart and JD Martinez has an extensive track record of being one of the best in the game when he's on. Teams would sign him. I'm not letting him go without offering a QO on the hope that I can sign Nelson Cruz to a deal. Cruz will be 42 next year. Eventually he's going to decline and its going to happen quick. Agree to disagree here. Kimbrel got paid in June. The reason why he didn't get paid to begin that off-season was because of the QO. Kimbrel had a brilliant 2018 followed by a disastrous playoffs. Kimbrel had the track record and had the history of being on track to being one of the 5 best closers in the history of the game. If the Sox offer that QO to JDM, they are risking a huge crap storm between player and them. No one is paying and giving up picks for JDM. They'll either pay later or will move on to next option. The free agent market is filled with too many good players to be dead set on JDM. That's my take. I'll leave it at that. Kimbrell's 2018 overall was not nearly as "brilliant" as his earlier seasons has been, and from July 23 on he had a 4.79 ERA with 15 walks in 20.2 IP--basically Darwinzon Hernandez' 2021. He walked 4.5 per nine for the whole year. The "disastrous playoffs" were a natural continuation of that trend, and then he was bad for the next two years. If the 2018 Red Sox had not been mostly demigods he would have cost them a flag. When he became a FA he was a closer in decline facing his age 31 season. The QO hurt him, but not as much as the poor pitching did. The Cubs were incredibly foolish to give him $43M.
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Post by orion09 on Nov 3, 2021 13:00:29 GMT -5
Here’s a question: If JD opts out, and is offered and accepts a QO, can he be traded?
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 3, 2021 13:21:45 GMT -5
I think JD is worth about the QO contract, and it's not outside the realm of possibility to think that the Red Sox wouldn't offer him 18.4 in a normal scenario. But in that scenario, they don't suffer an infinite loss if they offer him the QO and he accepts.
Draft pick is worth X million.
JD Martinez is worth Y million and will accept the QO with Z probability.
I don't think you're going to be able to fill in the blanks for X, Y and Z such that it's a bad idea to offer him the QO.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 3, 2021 14:19:40 GMT -5
Agree to disagree here. Kimbrel got paid in June. The reason why he didn't get paid to begin that off-season was because of the QO. Kimbrel had a brilliant 2018 followed by a disastrous playoffs. Kimbrel had the track record and had the history of being on track to being one of the 5 best closers in the history of the game. If the Sox offer that QO to JDM, they are risking a huge crap storm between player and them. No one is paying and giving up picks for JDM. They'll either pay later or will move on to next option. The free agent market is filled with too many good players to be dead set on JDM. That's my take. I'll leave it at that. Kimbrell's 2018 overall was not nearly as "brilliant" as his earlier seasons has been, and from July 23 on he had a 4.79 ERA with 15 walks in 20.2 IP--basically Darwinzon Hernandez' 2021. He walked 4.5 per nine for the whole year. The "disastrous playoffs" were a natural continuation of that trend, and then he was bad for the next two years. If the 2018 Red Sox had not been mostly demigods he would have cost them a flag. When he became a FA he was a closer in decline facing his age 31 season. The QO hurt him, but not as much as the poor pitching did. The Cubs were incredibly foolish to give him $43M. Picking a certain point from the season and running with it is cherry picking. 2018 was a great year for him. 96 strikeouts in over 62 innings. A whip under 1. ERA under 3. He had a great year. The Quallifying Offer affected his whole value all year until June when the Cubs finally signed him after the picks were gone from the picture.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 3, 2021 14:23:59 GMT -5
If anyone wants revisionist history. Go look up when the Sox offered Craig Kimbrel the QO and how he waited until June to sign with the Cubs. I'm still waiting for that compensation as a Sox fan. See the last post I wrote. We sent message at same time. So not your fault. I also wrote how I would reallocate the money in previous post. Right, they didn't get compensation for Kimbrel. But offering the qualifying offer also didn't cost the Red Sox anything. Maybe the same thing happens with JD (although it's weird you think you understand his market better than Scott Boras does) but even if it does it literally costs Boston nothing. There is the risk of distain between player and team right before the CBA is being negotiated and this is one of the things that they've been fighting about the past 4 years. The QO.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,988
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Post by jimoh on Nov 3, 2021 14:51:34 GMT -5
Kimbrell's 2018 overall was not nearly as "brilliant" as his earlier seasons has been, and from July 23 on he had a 4.79 ERA with 15 walks in 20.2 IP--basically Darwinzon Hernandez' 2021. He walked 4.5 per nine for the whole year. The "disastrous playoffs" were a natural continuation of that trend, and then he was bad for the next two years. If the 2018 Red Sox had not been mostly demigods he would have cost them a flag. When he became a FA he was a closer in decline facing his age 31 season. The QO hurt him, but not as much as the poor pitching did. The Cubs were incredibly foolish to give him $43M. Picking a certain point from the season and running with it is cherry picking. 2018 was a great year for him. 96 strikeouts in over 62 innings. A whip under 1. ERA under 3. He had a great year. The Quallifying Offer affected his whole value all year until June when the Cubs finally signed him after the picks were gone from the picture. If you think pitching like Darwinzon Hernandez (who has great K rates) for three months did not depress his value on the FA market at age 31, good luck to you.
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 3, 2021 18:03:52 GMT -5
Here’s a question: If JD opts out, and is offered and accepts a QO, can he be traded?
Yes.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 4, 2021 7:58:39 GMT -5
I think JD WILL opt-out. The news on Nick Castellanos is not surprising for me. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/nick-castellanos-reds-opts-out-contract-free-agent.htmlHe will get a longer contract than JD (5-years?) but this probably is the last time JD will get multiple years at a real high salary. I see him for 3-years at maybe $18 million per year. He is 34 compared to Nick C's 30. Both of them are defensive liabilities. It would surprise me if JD doesn't opt-out and take advantage of universal DH.
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Post by costpet on Nov 4, 2021 8:45:31 GMT -5
I think it all comes down to whether there is a universal DH next year. If there is, he makes a lot more money. If not, he doesn't. So, I think he's weighting that possibility. It's gambling. If I'm him, I would opt in for his $19M, then next year be a free agent. Then he can do whatever he wants. With all the money he has made, he's set for life, so why take a chance?
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 4, 2021 9:40:20 GMT -5
I think JD WILL opt-out. The news on Nick Castellanos is not surprising for me. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/nick-castellanos-reds-opts-out-contract-free-agent.htmlHe will get a longer contract than JD (5-years?) but this probably is the last time JD will get multiple years at a real high salary. I see him for 3-years at maybe $18 million per year. He is 34 compared to Nick C's 30. Both of them are defensive liabilities. It would surprise me if JD doesn't opt-out and take advantage of universal DH. I could see an AL team overpaying Castellanos perhaps the Yankees. I'd definitely prefer the track record of JD over someone like him. If he opts out and accepts the QO you have an elite hitter for one more season at 18 million. Which would be less than what he's currently making now. Thats why the "risk" of giving a QO to JD is non existent.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 4, 2021 9:42:46 GMT -5
Kimbrell's 2018 overall was not nearly as "brilliant" as his earlier seasons has been, and from July 23 on he had a 4.79 ERA with 15 walks in 20.2 IP--basically Darwinzon Hernandez' 2021. He walked 4.5 per nine for the whole year. The "disastrous playoffs" were a natural continuation of that trend, and then he was bad for the next two years. If the 2018 Red Sox had not been mostly demigods he would have cost them a flag. When he became a FA he was a closer in decline facing his age 31 season. The QO hurt him, but not as much as the poor pitching did. The Cubs were incredibly foolish to give him $43M. Picking a certain point from the season and running with it is cherry picking. 2018 was a great year for him. 96 strikeouts in over 62 innings. A whip under 1. ERA under 3. He had a great year. The Quallifying Offer affected his whole value all year until June when the Cubs finally signed him after the picks were gone from the picture. Bottom line. The QO wouldn't have affected his market if he wasn't total dog shit in the playoffs. He was a disaster at the biggest time of the year. Post Season is just as if not more important than the regular season. Soler was going to have to take a pillow contract this offseason now he's going to get a multi year deal from someone based on being a WS MVP. I would have been more confident in Ramiro Mendoza in the ALCS than Kimbrel in 2018.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 4, 2021 9:50:11 GMT -5
I think JD WILL opt-out. The news on Nick Castellanos is not surprising for me. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/nick-castellanos-reds-opts-out-contract-free-agent.htmlHe will get a longer contract than JD (5-years?) but this probably is the last time JD will get multiple years at a real high salary. I see him for 3-years at maybe $18 million per year. He is 34 compared to Nick C's 30. Both of them are defensive liabilities. It would surprise me if JD doesn't opt-out and take advantage of universal DH. I could see an AL team overpaying Castellanos perhaps the Yankees. I'd definitely prefer the track record of JD over someone like him. If he opts out and accepts the QO you have an elite hitter for one more season at 18 million. Which would be less than what he's currently making now. Thats why the "risk" of giving a QO to JD is non existent. The risk of JD for next season doesn't change much if he opts-out and takes the QO, the cost just goes down by about 5%. The risk that his bat craters, or he gets injured, would be unchanged. However the reward drops just slightly as his accepting the QO this year will mean the Red Sox can't offer it next year. So both risk and reward will diminish, very slightly, if he declines the option and accepts the QO.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 4, 2021 12:16:27 GMT -5
As an aside, I know that the Sox would save ~$1m in salary if JD opts out, gets QO'd, and accepts, but does that translate to ~$3.6m savings in terms of the luxury tax? He's at $22m AAV for his current contract, so $22m should be his LT hit if he opts in, and I'd assume the LT hit for accepting the QO would just be the $18.4m from the QO itself.
If true this only makes me want him to opt out more, and I was already banging that drum.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 4, 2021 12:54:12 GMT -5
As an aside, I know that the Sox would save ~$1m in salary if JD opts out, gets QO'd, and accepts, but does that translate to ~$3.6m savings in terms of the luxury tax? He's at $22m AAV for his current contract, so $22m should be his LT hit if he opts in, and I'd assume the LT hit for accepting the QO would just be the $18.4m from the QO itself. If true this only makes me want him to opt out more, and I was already banging that drum. Good point - and you're absolutely correct. (although the lux tax will be less relevant IF they choose to go over - assuming there is a similar lux tax next year - certainly JH would be happy)My mistake - i forgot they fixed this. If he opts out then he's owed the difference from the AAV and amount paid - $2.625 mil.
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 4, 2021 13:04:32 GMT -5
As an aside, I know that the Sox would save ~$1m in salary if JD opts out, gets QO'd, and accepts, but does that translate to ~$3.6m savings in terms of the luxury tax? He's at $22m AAV for his current contract, so $22m should be his LT hit if he opts in, and I'd assume the LT hit for accepting the QO would just be the $18.4m from the QO itself. If true this only makes me want him to opt out more, and I was already banging that drum. Good point - and you're absolutely correct. (although the lux tax will be less relevant IF they choose to go over - assuming there is a similar lux tax next year - certainly JH would be happy) So theoretically the Red Sox and JD could come to an agreement that they will pay him the exact same $ figure for next year if he opts out which would save the sox a chunk of money against the luxury tax. Could the MLB really do anything to stop that from happening?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 4, 2021 16:25:18 GMT -5
Per redsoxpayroll on Twitter, it actually counts as a 3-year deal then two 1-year deals for the CBT based on the structure. Talked with him about it and I believe he's correct.
If he were wrong, Sox would be taking a 2.625M hit of he opts out based on the difference that hadn't counted toward the CBT in the first 4 years anyway.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 4, 2021 19:59:47 GMT -5
Picking a certain point from the season and running with it is cherry picking. 2018 was a great year for him. 96 strikeouts in over 62 innings. A whip under 1. ERA under 3. He had a great year. The Quallifying Offer affected his whole value all year until June when the Cubs finally signed him after the picks were gone from the picture. Bottom line. The QO wouldn't have affected his market if he wasn't total dog shit in the playoffs. He was a disaster at the biggest time of the year. Post Season is just as if not more important than the regular season. Soler was going to have to take a pillow contract this offseason now he's going to get a multi year deal from someone based on being a WS MVP. I would have been more confident in Ramiro Mendoza in the ALCS than Kimbrel in 2018. He got the contract he was looking for come June, once the picks were gone. It didn't affect him at all really. The play-off performance.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Nov 5, 2021 11:05:49 GMT -5
Picking a certain point from the season and running with it is cherry picking. 2018 was a great year for him. 96 strikeouts in over 62 innings. A whip under 1. ERA under 3. He had a great year. The Quallifying Offer affected his whole value all year until June when the Cubs finally signed him after the picks were gone from the picture. Bottom line. The QO wouldn't have affected his market if he wasn't total dog shit in the playoffs. He was a disaster at the biggest time of the year. Post Season is just as if not more important than the regular season. Soler was going to have to take a pillow contract this offseason now he's going to get a multi year deal from someone based on being a WS MVP. I would have been more confident in Ramiro Mendoza in the ALCS than Kimbrel in 2018. It was the QO, wanting a 100 million dollar payday and 14 not good playoff innings. Yet I doubt the Cubs dislike his contract after what they just got trading him. The poor White Sox.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Nov 5, 2021 19:15:55 GMT -5
Can the Sox QO Rodriguez and JD? I thought there was a rule you can only QO one player per team, or was that my imagination?
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 5, 2021 20:28:33 GMT -5
Can the Sox QO Rodriguez and JD? I thought there was a rule you can only QO one player per team, or was that my imagination? I can't say that I've ever heard of that rule, I believe a team can qualify as many as they wish that fall under the rule.
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Post by keninten on Nov 5, 2021 22:18:23 GMT -5
Can the Sox QO Rodriguez and JD? I thought there was a rule you can only QO one player per team, or was that my imagination? In 2019 Washington gave a QO to Rendon and Strasburg
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 6, 2021 13:35:14 GMT -5
Can the Sox QO Rodriguez and JD? I thought there was a rule you can only QO one player per team, or was that my imagination? In 2019 Washington gave a QO to Rendon and StrasburgYou can tender as many QO as you wish. What you can’t do is 1- tender an offer to a player that you acquired during the season. An example of this is Kyle Schwarber 2- entend a QO to the same player 2 years in a row. An example of this is Kevin Gausman. He accepted the giants offer last year. Therefor he could not be tendered a QO this off-season. This could come into play with both JD and Erod next offseason depending on how it all plays out. Then again the CBA expired in December so all of these rules may be in flux.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Nov 6, 2021 16:45:16 GMT -5
Can the Sox QO Rodriguez and JD? I thought there was a rule you can only QO one player per team, or was that my imagination? In 2019 Washington gave a QO to Rendon and StrasburgGot it. Not sure where I got that idea from
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Post by soxin8 on Nov 6, 2021 18:03:52 GMT -5
Here’s a question: If JD opts out, and is offered and accepts a QO, can he be traded? I believe you are required to keep the player until at least June but not sure of the exact date.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 6, 2021 18:35:54 GMT -5
In 2019 Washington gave a QO to Rendon and Strasburg Got it. Not sure where I got that idea from The NFL and the franchise tag probably
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