2013 Bullpen

I think Breslow is a lock for the DL to start the year or at the very least XST. That would give you room to bring Mortensen into the fold. I also wonder if it's gonna be a problem sending Bard to AAA if he's throwing 99 with reasonable control all ST. I suppose if that is the case then you worry about the roster slot with somone else because he's an elite set-up man.

CL: Hanrahan
SU: Bard
SU: Tazawa
MR: Uehara
LR: Morales
LR: Miller
SWing: Mortensen

I trade Bailey (assuming Bard is himself), if Bard is still wild he goes to AAA and Bailey is not traded.

I put Aceves on optional waivers and if a deal can be worked out I trade him. If the other teams are scared off by the attitude , he goes in the bucket.

Injuries have a way of making this look easier then it appears.

Assuming Breslow starts the year on the DL:

Hanrahan
Bailey
Tazawa
Uehara
Miller
Morales (longman)
Mortensen/Bard (depending whether Bard is playing well)

Barring injury, it's tough to picture Bard and Bailey both being in the pen for a significant chunk of the season. Perhaps Bailey can thrive as a setup man while his trade value rebuilds for a month or two, and Bard can attempt to reestablish himself as a dominant reliever in AAA at the start of the season. As startling as Bard's lost command and velocity was last season, there are reasons to believe he'll return at least partially to his true form in the pen.

CL: Hanrahan
SU: Bailey (maybe Bard by mid-season?)
SU: Tazawa
MR: Uehara
MR: Miller
MR: Breslow (DL candidate); Mortensen
LR: Morales

I hate to have Mortensen be such a fringe candidate after his impressive showing in 2012, but with Hanrahan, Tazawa, Uehara as locks, and Bailey for the time being, I don't see a spot for him unless Breslow is DL'd and Bard is sent to AAA initially. It's similar to the Atchison situation, who I was really upset to see depart, but there didn't seem to be a way to squeeze him in with anything other than a minor league offer after signing Uehara.

Morales has a live arm when healthy, but him and Miller both scare me in critical situations despite the considerable talent. Millers BB/9 particularly worries me, despite 2012 being a career best (4.5), as I'm not ready to accept his new-found bullpen role as security for his erratic command. But as middle relief lefties (with Morales perhaps taking on a more lengthy role at times), I am comfortable with them in the pen.

As for Aceves, I love his value as a multi-role pitcher in the bullpen (excluding closer), as he was a blessing to have throughout 2011. However, it simply is tough to picture him on the opening day roster, barring multiple injuries; of course, it may be quite tough to find a suitable trading partner, and we didn't give him $2.65 million for no return. But if Felix struggles or gets injured early on, what about trying Aceves in the rotation, before turning to Ruby De La Rosa or one of the younger guys? If his heads on straight (hopefully starting would calm his erratic behavior a bit), he could be solid 5th starter, as could Morales, as we saw flashes of last season before he tired out.

Some good points. I do remember him mopping up games with a very surprising amount of K's in 2012, but it's worth noting he has a career 3.4 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in the minors. That being considered, I'm not too worried about his walk rates, and as you mentioned, the slider helped generate a lot more swing and misses, and it made a big difference in his 2012 minor league performance as well.

The more serious concerns of mine come with the other things you mentioned, such as the leverage of the situations (although it's not like now we would need to rely on him more than in 2012), FIP, and also his propensity to serve up long balls. It's hard to justify a spot for him if everyone else is healthy, but maybe if he pitches well against decent hitters this spring he can snag the last spot (assuming Aceves is out of the picture and one of the 3 lefties is injured, which seems pretty likely). Otherwise, we'll probably lose him to another team while retaining one of the top pens in the game. I guess I'm just rooting for him since good guy and was a pleasant surprise last season, but like with Atchison, you can't hang onto everyone, even if they are pretty effective.

I know the club has announced they will keep 12 pitchers. But, if the bench is Nava, Ciriaco and Ross. Could we carry 13 pitchers? Seems like we're trying to replicate Baltimore's success last year. Veterans at every position. A deep, talented bullpen. They carried 13 pitchers quite a bit if memory serves me correct?

There's no way they send Aceves to Pawtucket. Imagine how bad his attitude will be after hearing that...

If you were going to carry 13 then you'd have to keep Carp for his ability to play 1b and OF. The fact they have a ton of home games early and the furthest away they go before 5/3 is Cleveland or Toronto helps if they want a 3 man bench. They will not let Napoli play every day so you need more then an emergency option on the bench for first. You can get away with Carp and Goes as corners between Jacoby or Victorino if you want for games here ad there. Farrell has pretty much already said it'll be a 12 man staff though. Bailey won't be traded during the spring. He's too good, gives closer insurance and has been an amazing teammate which they are looking for. If Bard pitches great and there are no injuries it's probably Aceves that goes due to attitude alone.

No injury - everyone has a good spring

Hanrahan (Closer)
Bailey (setup 1)
Tazawa (setup 2)
Bard (7th)
Koji (7/8)
Miller ( lefty)
Morales (swing)

Mortenson needs injuries and poor performance.

I think Uehara and Bailey be the primary setup men, at least to start the season (though I believe Tawaza will fill that role long term).

Tazawa handled lefties better than Miller last season. I think the team is fine with just 1 LOOGY. Uehara sometimes gives up a HR here and there, for the most part, he can get anyone out.

By the way, situations like this (with Breslow likely to begin the season on the DL and Morales probably joining him) are why you gather as much depth as possible going into Spring Training. If the Red Sox had cut Aceves, not signed Uehara, or traded Miller/Bailey/etc., the bullpen would be in pretty tough shape.

I'm in the process of writing up my 25-man roster predictions, which will have it's own thread by days end. Here is my bullpen section.

Bullpen
RP: Joel Hanrahan: After converting 76 of 84 attempts over the past two seasons in Pittsburgh, Hanrahan was immediately named The Red Sox’ closer. Hanrahan is a lock for the roster and will be Boston’s closer, but entering his age 32 season, can he continue his recent stardom? Is his slight decrease in average fastball velocity (97.1>95.9) a red flag? Are an abnormally low .225 BABIP and a combined 5.00ERA in August & September 2012 causes for concern? Roster lock.

RP - Andrew Bailey: Penciled in as Boston’s closer before a thumb injury derailed the majority of his 2012 campaign. Has the ability to be a top notch AL East reliever, but injury problems and a wasted 2012 season make Bailey a HUGE question mark going forward. Bailey is a roster lock but will be on a short leash (in regards to a late inning role) with a plethora of RHP’s in contention.

RP - Junichi Tazawa: The former top prospect was one of the few bright spots on the 2012 squad. With great command of a vast arsenal of pitches and the inclusion of an excellent splitter, Tazawa posted exceptional numbers out of the ‘pen in 2012 {1.43ERA, 26.2K%-2.9BB%} while keeping the ball on the ground. 25-man roster lock who could very likely emerge at John Farrell’s set-up man.

RP - Koji Uehara: One of the MLB’s most consistent reliever since making the transition in 2010. Signed 1 yr/$4.25mil contract with Boston after putting up absurd numbers w/ Texas in 2012 {.466 OPS, 43K/3BB, 14.33K/BB, 0.64WHIP, 92%LOB}. Roster lock who will battle for the set-up role.

RP - Franklin Morales: Another near lock to make 25-man. Held LH’s to .489 OPS in 2012, making him an extra matchup nightmare for lefties. Morales’ ability to pitch in long relief and make spot starts w/o missing a beat makes his presence invaluable. I’d place his chances of making the roster at 95-5.

RP - Andrew Miller: Embraced full time bullpen role in 2012 for first time in career. Posted 11.28 K/9, 3.42 BB/9 and .34 HR/9 vs. LH’s, all career bests while holding LH’s to a .429 OPS. Farrell views him as a “situational lefty out of the bullpen”. Will have competition from fellow southpaw Craig Breslow, but probabilities of winning LH specialist role sit at 90-10 barring a spring training meltdown

RP - Clayton Mortensen: Alfredo Aceves has become expendable due to the emergence of Sox pitchers who can fill his LRP niche, namely Mortensen and Morales. With zero options remaining, Mortensen will either make the roster or be DFA’d, so Boston will present him w/ every opportunity to do so.
2012: 26 relief appearances
12 appearances in which he threw 2+ innings…33.2IP, 30K, 10BB, 2.17ERA
14 appearances in which he threw <2 innings…8.1IP, 11K, 9B, 7.78ERA
Ideally, Boston would stretch him into a starter in AAA Pawtucket, but with no options remaining, stretching him out in the Boston pen seems like the best option. 50-50 shot of making 25-man roster, almost solely reliant on Aceves’ production.


This assumes that Breslow starts the season on the DL. Additionally, Aceves would be added if Morales started the season on the DL (which wouldn't be such a bad idea with such depth in the pen).

Acceves had a but of a rough game for Mexico today in the WBC. 3ip, 5 hits, 2 earned runs, 0 walks, 2 strikeouts, 1 home run. He was charged with the blown save.