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2020 Vision: Position Players
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 16, 2019 13:44:54 GMT -5
Well we should know before the end of the season. I don't get why you're so absolutely sure he's going to need it and basing all of your opinions on him needing it. I would never be so adamant about something that is a complete guess before we actually hear the news. They won't know until spring training. They'll know when he goes back to Dr. Andrews and see if his elbow responded to the PRP injection.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 16, 2019 13:45:11 GMT -5
Who would you rather have as the GM/PoBO tomorrow, Billy Beane or Brian Sabean? Is neither an option? I apologize as I'm missing part of the point your trying to make. I'm saying that World Series rings are not the be-all and end-all of GM evaluation. Especially for Dombrowski, who wasn't even around when most of the key pieces of that team were being acquired and developed. If anything it seems like he's out because he wasn't working well with the people who were.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 16, 2019 13:48:16 GMT -5
YOLO, better give up now. Better to not risk everything (including the long term health of the organization) on one year, you mean? You're not "risking everything", you're risking like a couple top 100 guys at best. That's not going to make or break the future of the org.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 16, 2019 13:57:28 GMT -5
They won't know until spring training. They'll know when he goes back to Dr. Andrews and see if his elbow responded to the PRP injection. They won't know until he fully ramps up for next season to see if the procedure worked or not. See Carson Smith's injuries as a example.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 16, 2019 13:58:10 GMT -5
Better to not risk everything (including the long term health of the organization) on one year, you mean? You're not "risking everything", you're risking like a couple top 100 guys at best. That's not going to make or break the future of the org. A couple of top 100 organizational prospects could indeed make or break a future. At least it could have a great impact on the organization's long term health.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 16, 2019 14:05:48 GMT -5
You're not "risking everything", you're risking like a couple top 100 guys at best. That's not going to make or break the future of the org. A couple of top 100 organizational prospects could indeed make or break a future. It's not likely, though.
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Post by manfred on Sept 16, 2019 14:27:07 GMT -5
You're not "risking everything", you're risking like a couple top 100 guys at best. That's not going to make or break the future of the org. A couple of top 100 organizational prospects could indeed make or break a future. At least it could have a great impact on the organization's long term health. Well, the White Sox return for Sale is quite a test case. Moncada is coming along, but he’s no franchise player yet. Kopech has the injury you worry Sale has. Let’s see how that plays out. Still happier on our end of the 2 top-prospects for a star exchange.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 16, 2019 14:30:31 GMT -5
A couple of top 100 organizational prospects could indeed make or break a future. At least it could have a great impact on the organization's long term health. Well, the White Sox return for Sale is quite a test case. Moncada is coming along, but he’s no franchise player yet. Kopech has the injury you worry Sale has. Let’s see how that plays out. Still happier on our end of the 2 top-prospects for a star exchange. Moncada has already made the case that he's a franchise player right now. He's having a breakout season and is only what, 24?!
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Post by incandenza on Sept 16, 2019 14:36:17 GMT -5
They'll know when he goes back to Dr. Andrews and see if his elbow responded to the PRP injection. They won't know until he fully ramps up for next season to see if the procedure worked or not. See Carson Smith's injuries as a example. The very obvious conclusion of this logic would be: let's see how Sale does after ramping up in spring training. If he needs Tommy John, they can trade Betts then.
On the other hand, the idea that Sale, contra his expert diagnosis, will very likely need Tommy John next year, and it definitely won't be the case that he'll get injured in 2021 or 2022, and based on these assumptions we should trade Betts before the start of next season, strikes me as a little bit less intuitive.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 16, 2019 14:39:50 GMT -5
FTHW's point was that probably no team has more use for Betts than the Red Sox because no team has a bigger drop-off in value from Betts to whatever guy on the current roster would replace him. It's a good point and I don't think anyone is arguing that the Red Sox are going to be better through a Betts trade by itself. The main argument is that there are larger things on the horizon and it may be smart for the Sox to get out in front of it because the outcome doesn't look so good if the team just lets it play out. I don't think ownership is going to pay Betts and I don't think the new GM is going to game plan a scenario where they get made to look like an idiot after Betts signs somewhere else. So, for me, a trade with a reasonable return seems like the most likely scenario. I don't want to speak for everyone else, but my personal thought is that if you move Betts and JBJ, that $40-45M and whatever you get for Betts might provide a better outcome in 2020 and beyond. That is a secondary benefit, but the new GM will look like a genius if he/she moves Betts, saves money, and the team also gets better. If I'm the new Sox GM I know which way I'm going. I won't be because I'm heading up the Dodgers next year, but just a hypothetical. This idea has actually been growing on me a little. I definitely don't think it would be an obviously good idea to trade Betts, but it would open up some creative possibilities for helping out in multiple places on the roster. I would never have trusted Dombrowski to pull that off, but with a new GM who could make such a move as part of a grand strategy... well. It'll be an interesting off-season.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 16, 2019 14:48:15 GMT -5
They won't know until he fully ramps up for next season to see if the procedure worked or not. See Carson Smith's injuries as a example. The very obvious conclusion of this logic would be: let's see how Sale does after ramping up in spring training. If he needs Tommy John, they can trade Betts then.
On the other hand, the idea that Sale, contra his expert diagnosis, will very likely need Tommy John next year, and it definitely won't be the case that he'll get injured in 2021 or 2022, and based on these assumptions we should trade Betts before the start of next season, strikes me as a little bit less intuitive.
Teams don't generally trade for expensive players after the off-season is over. That may be changing soon with Free agency crashing every year and big time free agents signing later and later each year. However, teams for the most part like to know what their payrolls look like before the season starts.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 16, 2019 14:59:14 GMT -5
The very obvious conclusion of this logic would be: let's see how Sale does after ramping up in spring training. If he needs Tommy John, they can trade Betts then.
On the other hand, the idea that Sale, contra his expert diagnosis, will very likely need Tommy John next year, and it definitely won't be the case that he'll get injured in 2021 or 2022, and based on these assumptions we should trade Betts before the start of next season, strikes me as a little bit less intuitive.
Teams don't generally trade for expensive players after the off-season is over. That may be changing soon with Free agency crashing every year and big time free agents signing later and later each year. However, teams for the most part like to know what their payrolls look like before the season starts. In-season trades are not unheard of. There's this whole "trade deadline" thing, you know. Are you not even willing to hedge a little and say: let's see how 2020 unfolds, and if, as you predict, Sale will be forced to get surgery and the season will be a lost cause, then we can trade Betts at the deadline?
I realize you won't get quite as much value at the deadline as you would in the off-season, but on the other hand, that seems like a reasonable hedge against the certainty of your personal medical evaluation of Chris Sale (on top of the certainty that a Sale injury would tank the season).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 16, 2019 15:33:51 GMT -5
Teams don't generally trade for expensive players after the off-season is over. That may be changing soon with Free agency crashing every year and big time free agents signing later and later each year. However, teams for the most part like to know what their payrolls look like before the season starts. In-season trades are not unheard of. There's this whole "trade deadline" thing, you know. Are you not even willing to hedge a little and say: let's see how 2020 unfolds, and if, as you predict, Sale will be forced to get surgery and the season will be a lost cause, then we can trade Betts at the deadline?
I realize you won't get quite as much value at the deadline as you would in the off-season, but on the other hand, that seems like a reasonable hedge against the certainty of your personal medical evaluation of Chris Sale (on top of the certainty that a Sale injury would tank the season).
Two things. Yes, not even close to the same value. See Manny Machado trade and Paul Goldsmidt trade. Teams usually set aside money for the trade deadline (they leave room in the payroll and plan for it). Plus, the contract is already more than half paid for by the time the trade deadline comes. Planning for a team to make you a offer in spring training is a tall task. There will be more available options to trade from this off-season. If a team if all in on getting Betts as a number one option, they will make that the priority before shifting their plans to something else. Once they shift to something else they might now even be a option anymore come spring training.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 16, 2019 16:39:18 GMT -5
A couple of top 100 organizational prospects could indeed make or break a future. At least it could have a great impact on the organization's long term health. Well, the White Sox return for Sale is quite a test case. Moncada is coming along, but he’s no franchise player yet. Kopech has the injury you worry Sale has. Let’s see how that plays out. Still happier on our end of the 2 top-prospects for a star exchange. They aren't getting anything close to a Moncada for 1 year of $30 million per year Mookie. The Red Sox traded for 3 years of Sale at $13 million per.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 16, 2019 17:42:27 GMT -5
Well, the White Sox return for Sale is quite a test case. Moncada is coming along, but he’s no franchise player yet. Kopech has the injury you worry Sale has. Let’s see how that plays out. Still happier on our end of the 2 top-prospects for a star exchange. They aren't getting anything close to a Moncada for 1 year of $30 million per year Mookie. The Red Sox traded for 3 years of Sale at $13 million per. I mean, I suppose some GM does something incredibly stupid. But if you can't grasp this concept, . . . . . I have nothing.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 16, 2019 19:28:39 GMT -5
The Sox are probably getting a major league ready outfielder in a Mookie Betts trade. Wouldn't make sense to do that trade without one available. Think Alex Verdugo, Kyle Tucker, Cristian Pache, Drew Waters. Any of that group. FTHW's point was that probably no team has more use for Betts than the Red Sox because no team has a bigger drop-off in value from Betts to whatever guy on the current roster would replace him. If a team already has a major-league ready outfielder to trade for Betts, then by definition Betts has less value for them than he does for the Red Sox. ADD: Or to put it another way - what sort of team would value Betts the most highly? Probably one that figures to be competitive next season, for whom marginal wins are worth the most, and which, in the absence of Betts, would be especially weak at the outfield position. Guess which team fits that description to a tee? What you're missing is that both teams are likely looking to improve in 2020 and for the Dodgers to improve they must obtain a more talented player who costs far more in value/dollars per win - this is due to their great deal of depth. The Red Sox, on the other hand, have a zero value starting pitcher spot that they must improve in order to compete for a world series next year, so they could spend less for a 3 win player and a 4 win player than the would by keeping their 6 win player and still be a better team next year. In this case, if the Red Sox were able to trade Betts for Verdugo then use the money saved to sign Wheeler/Bumgarner, they likely become a better team, as do the Dodgers. With dollars saved the Red Sox could resign Holt as well, further tilting this as a positive deal. Do the Dodgers want to use their depth to push some of their chips in to win now? Are they willing to invest to resign Mookie? If yes, then this could be the deal that separates them from world series Challenger to world series champion and could be well worth it. Without improving their starting pitching, the Red Sox aren't challengers as I think we all agree based on everything that has been discussed so far. Making this move would also help if rebuilding is the answer - but I don't think they're there yet. Given Mookie's talent and track record, plus his marketability (this is important to the owner who has to sign off on a big deal like this) he's a valuable commodity and can likely be used to improve the team either in a rebuild, or to extend their window another few years.
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Post by manfred on Sept 16, 2019 19:41:56 GMT -5
Well, the White Sox return for Sale is quite a test case. Moncada is coming along, but he’s no franchise player yet. Kopech has the injury you worry Sale has. Let’s see how that plays out. Still happier on our end of the 2 top-prospects for a star exchange. They aren't getting anything close to a Moncada for 1 year of $30 million per year Mookie. The Red Sox traded for 3 years of Sale at $13 million per. Agreed. Just saying even a huge haul is no guarantee. Add in your good point... not getting a huge haul (I mentioned Archer, but he was under control and I guess the Pirates thought they were getting an ace).
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 16, 2019 20:34:10 GMT -5
Well, the White Sox return for Sale is quite a test case. Moncada is coming along, but he’s no franchise player yet. Kopech has the injury you worry Sale has. Let’s see how that plays out. Still happier on our end of the 2 top-prospects for a star exchange. They aren't getting anything close to a Moncada for 1 year of $30 million per year Mookie. The Red Sox traded for 3 years of Sale at $13 million per. There's ways of getting more value out of deals in return. Some of y'all aren't thinking like GM's. Who said Mookie had to be the only one included in a deal? Mookie probably gets you 2 top 10 prospects (or one major league player and a top ten prospect) by himself, even for one year. I already brought up this idea once already, but adding a Workman to the package (who's also a free agent after 2020) could extract even more value to a deal coming back to the Sox and could get you that third top 10 prospect in the deal. The Dodgers, Braves, and Astros will be 3 teams looking for elite talent and bullpen talent this off-season. All 3 of these teams should be looking to maximize their windows to win.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 16, 2019 20:37:04 GMT -5
Do the dodgers want to use their depth to push some of their chips in to win now? All available evidence suggests that they don't.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 16, 2019 21:17:45 GMT -5
They aren't getting anything close to a Moncada for 1 year of $30 million per year Mookie. The Red Sox traded for 3 years of Sale at $13 million per. There's ways of getting more value out of deals in return. Some of y'all aren't thinking like GM's. Who said Mookie had to be the only one included in a deal? Mookie probably gets you 2 top 10 prospects (or one major league player and a top ten prospect) by himself, even for one year. I already brought up this idea once already, but adding a Workman to the package (who's also a free agent after 2020) could extract even more value to a deal coming back to the Sox and could get you that third top 10 prospect in the deal. The Dodgers, Braves, and Astros will be 3 teams looking for elite talent and bullpen talent this off-season. All 3 of these teams should be looking to maximize their windows to win. If you give up significant pieces in addition to Mookie, that's more significant additions that need to be made at some point.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 16, 2019 23:07:50 GMT -5
Without improving their starting pitching, the Red Sox aren't challengers as I think we all agree based on everything that has been discussed so far. Making this move would also help if rebuilding is the answer - but I don't think they're there yet.
Given Mookie's talent and track record, plus his marketability (this is important to the owner who has to sign off on a big deal like this) he's a valuable commodity and can likely be used as a couple to improve the team either in a rebuild, or to extend their window another few years. What do you mean by the underlined? ERod looked terrific. Do you think Sale and Price and Eovaldi are done? SOx have 4 starters here. Potentially very high quality. No way they can find a cheap guy that won't completely implode? They have many bullpen pitchers.
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Post by soxjim on Sept 16, 2019 23:21:30 GMT -5
Do the dodgers want to use their depth to push some of their chips in to win now? All available evidence suggests that they don't. Why would you say " all available evidence . . .?" What about Machado from last year? Isn't that evidence that they are willing to push chips in to win "now?" And I'm not sure if you said this or others said this - but for anyone to suggest that a team which has not won a title in many years and if they again don't win it this year suggests "they don't need a MVP" - then they are just saying "they don't need to win a championship." I get that nothing is guaranteed but what team that hasn't won it all can say they don't "need" a superstar regarding a player like Betts to me is mind-boggling. If they lose -- more than likely it will show they "needed him" but were either "unwilling" or "can't afford" to get him. But it doesn't mean they didn't "need" him. I would think the goal for a team like the LAD is to win championships. That's why they went after Machado, wasn't it?
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 17, 2019 0:23:58 GMT -5
There's ways of getting more value out of deals in return. Some of y'all aren't thinking like GM's. Who said Mookie had to be the only one included in a deal? Mookie probably gets you 2 top 10 prospects (or one major league player and a top ten prospect) by himself, even for one year. I already brought up this idea once already, but adding a Workman to the package (who's also a free agent after 2020) could extract even more value to a deal coming back to the Sox and could get you that third top 10 prospect in the deal. The Dodgers, Braves, and Astros will be 3 teams looking for elite talent and bullpen talent this off-season. All 3 of these teams should be looking to maximize their windows to win. If you give up significant pieces in addition to Mookie, that's more significant additions that need to be made at some point. There's ways around that though. Trade JBJ for starting pitching depth, or a controllable bullpen piece soon thereafter (or) sign a bullpen piece or two. I'm not afraid to give up a little more to get a little more back.
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Post by pedrofanforever45 on Sept 17, 2019 0:27:28 GMT -5
There's ways of getting more value out of deals in return. Some of y'all aren't thinking like GM's. Who said Mookie had to be the only one included in a deal? Mookie probably gets you 2 top 10 prospects (or one major league player and a top ten prospect) by himself, even for one year. I already brought up this idea once already, but adding a Workman to the package (who's also a free agent after 2020) could extract even more value to a deal coming back to the Sox and could get you that third top 10 prospect in the deal. The Dodgers, Braves, and Astros will be 3 teams looking for elite talent and bullpen talent this off-season. All 3 of these teams should be looking to maximize their windows to win. Point taken, but I hope the Sox keep Workman specifically. Would be thrilled if they signed him for 3 years at a low AAV. You could trade Workman or say a Barnes (who only has 2 more years of control left) if you liked one over the other. However, this is a career year for Workman and I doubt he's peaking more than he has this year. He's about to enter his 30's, I believe. He's been fortunate along with good this year with the probably unsustainable low homerun rate with the baseball being what it is today.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 17, 2019 4:52:39 GMT -5
Trade JBJ for starting pitching depth, or a controllable bullpen piece soon thereafter (or) sign a bullpen piece or two. I'm not afraid to give up a little more to get a little more back.
Unrealistic, you're overeating his value
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