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Eduardo Rodriguez, now and going forward
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Post by Canseco on Nov 19, 2020 22:33:40 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Nov 20, 2020 6:54:34 GMT -5
I think what we can expect is a 3.8 era and alot of injuries in his future.
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Post by cheers on Nov 20, 2020 7:27:40 GMT -5
I think what we can expect is a 3.8 era and alot of injuries in his future. I agree. While I'm a big fan, and we've seen the #2 (arguably 1A) caliber pitcher in him.... If you're inking an extension of more than a couple years, you've got to pay him like a #4. If he comes out in 2021 and has another season like 2019, I'm extremely willing to rethink my stance. I sure hope he does. It is almost unfathomable to me that he is only 27.
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Post by sarasoxer on Nov 20, 2020 7:31:22 GMT -5
I think what we can expect is a 3.8 era and alot of injuries in his future. The first part I agree with but the latter is unfounded IMO unless there are unforseen consequences from Covid. He's a strong guy. To me some of the analysis is at the granular level searching hard for a nugget that isn't that shiny. I've seen a gradual improvement, particularly with the fade changeup and adding a cutter. Still, every game seems a struggle to manage his pitch count to get past 5 2/3. He's gotten a bit better at that but, at some point, he is what he is ... and will be in that realm.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2020 21:23:57 GMT -5
I think what we can expect is a 3.8 era and alot of injuries in his future. I agree. While I'm a big fan, and we've seen the #2 (arguably 1A) caliber pitcher in him.... If you're inking an extension of more than a couple years, you've got to pay him like a #4. If he comes out in 2021 and has another season like 2019, I'm extremely willing to rethink my stance. I sure hope he does. It is almost unfathomable to me that he is only 27. Eduardo Rodriguez has had two injuries in his entire career, and only one was pitching-related.
He hurt his knee in ST of 2016, and it bothered him into 2017.
The next year he was sporting a 2.60 ERA and .643 OPS allowed over his last 11 starts when he twisted his ankle on a freak play covering 1B. That is not predictive.
He started 34 games and threw 203 innings the last time he wasn't felled by a pandemic. Catching a pandemic disease is not predictive, either.
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Post by unitspin on Nov 22, 2020 1:12:01 GMT -5
I agree. While I'm a big fan, and we've seen the #2 (arguably 1A) caliber pitcher in him.... If you're inking an extension of more than a couple years, you've got to pay him like a #4. If he comes out in 2021 and has another season like 2019, I'm extremely willing to rethink my stance. I sure hope he does. It is almost unfathomable to me that he is only 27. Eduardo Rodriguez has had two injuries in his entire career, and only one was pitching-related.
He hurt his knee in ST of 2016, and it bothered him into 2017.
The next year he was sporting a 2.60 ERA and .643 OPS allowed over his last 11 starts when he twisted his ankle on a freak play covering 1B. That is not predictive.
He started 34 games and threw 203 innings the last time he wasn't felled by a pandemic. Catching a pandemic disease is not predictive, either.
lol the chances of erod having an 2.6 era for an entire season are in the single digits. But the chances of him throwing under 150 innings are pretty high.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 22, 2020 13:47:02 GMT -5
Unitspin, do you have some actual analysis to add or are you just planning on making declarative statements and being snarky for no particular reason? We'd really appreciate the former. Thanks.
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Post by unitspin on Nov 22, 2020 14:09:11 GMT -5
Unitspin, do you have some actual analysis to add or are you just planning on making declarative statements and being snarky for no particular reason? We'd really appreciate the former. Thanks. Yep he has thrown more then 140 innings once in his career in the mlb. All while never having an era better then 3.8 in his career. So as i stated before at age 28 in April, I believe making a fair assessment on his potential at 150 innings @ 3.8 era is what we can likely expect out of him. Its not being snarky, it's reality. It's seems ppl on here like to call out others but do not like being called out themselves. Are we too believe erod is going to be an elite pitcher next season bcs he had a good 10 game run. What facts does someone have on that basis. He will be 28 next season and has never once shown to be anything more then a decent 2-3. Id be more worried about what we can expect out of chris sale then erod. If erod is your ace the season is over before it started.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,925
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 22, 2020 15:36:59 GMT -5
Unitspin, do you have some actual analysis to add or are you just planning on making declarative statements and being snarky for no particular reason? We'd really appreciate the former. Thanks. Yep he has thrown more then 140 innings once in his career in the mlb. All while never having an era better then 3.8 in his career. So as i stated before at age 28 in April, I believe making a fair assessment on his potential at 150 innings @ 3.8 era is what we can likely expect out of him. Its not being snarky, it's reality. It's seems ppl on here like to call out others but do not like being called out themselves. Are we too believe erod is going to be an elite pitcher next season bcs he had a good 10 game run. What facts does someone have on that basis. He will be 28 next season and has never once shown to be anything more then a decent 2-3. Id be more worried about what we can expect out of chris sale then erod. If erod is your ace the season is over before it started. Except I never said anything about the 11-game run being predictive for a whole season. The point was that the injury came at a bad time for him. I assumed that folks remembered that he never pitched well again that year, so the overall point was that the injury inflated his numbers.
Just because something is true doesn't mean it's meaningful. And if someone points out why it isn't meaningful -- E-Rod had just one pitching injury that hampered him over two seasons, and another freak injury while fielding, and in his most recent season (excluding pandemic illness) led the league in games started and was 6th in IP -- simply repeating the fact serves no apparent purpose here. Say something once, why say it again?
Oh, and BTW, in 2019, according to b-Ref, the combination of small Fenway, bad team defense, and good opponent hitters added 0.64 to his ERA. The resulting 3.17 would have placed him 4th in the AL among qualifiers. They had him as the 5th most valuable pitcher in the league, which is very much an ace.
And that's the last time I correct you, because I've put you on block.
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Post by unitspin on Nov 22, 2020 15:54:39 GMT -5
So by that metric brandon workman is the best closer in baseball??
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Post by jl1947 on Nov 22, 2020 17:28:35 GMT -5
So by that metric brandon workman is the best closer in baseball?? Unitspin: It's getting embarrassing seeing you get knocked down so many times because of a frequent disregard for logic. When faced with facts, assertions lacking in evidential support are like a spit into the wind, it doesn't taste well the second time around. I have agreed with you in some posts and I'd like to able to see you post in a way that engenders some affinity.
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Post by unitspin on Nov 22, 2020 18:35:16 GMT -5
They way ppl use advanced metrics to argue their points is funny on this site. If you posted erod as the 5th best pitcher in mlb in 2019 you guys would get laughed out of the joint.
First off, erod Home era is 1.5 better then his away. So using Fenway as a way to adjust his era might be an over reach.
As well erod only went over 6 innings 11 times in 2019. Its pretty common knowledge that erod is not your ace type of pitcher he regularly struggles in the first inning with an era over 5. Then after the 6th inning his highest era per inning it is over 6. He is by no means a work horse. The weird thing about erod is his era in the 6th inning is by far his best, it could be due to the large leads he was gifted all season in 2019 but that's just a guess.
Erod in his 20 of his 34 starts had a run support of over 6 runs. When you look further into it erod does far better with the lead then the opposite. Although he does good when the game is tied.
So my breakdown is erod is a good not great pitcher. He is a guy that needs the lead, has to pitch at home he is league average on the road. As well he cannot pitch past the 6th inning or you risk losing the game. However, on a positive note he is just as good against under .500 teams as over .500 teams. He is by no means elite he could be if he limited his pitch count and era in the first inning bcs when he does that he could be a top notch 2 in the league. An ace label would be a stretch for him even by the most outlandish metrics.
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Post by ramireja on Apr 29, 2021 13:42:13 GMT -5
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Post by manfred on Apr 29, 2021 13:46:47 GMT -5
Eddie is like Lester. Maybe he is not in the same conversation as the true elites, but he is more than a #2.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 29, 2021 14:03:08 GMT -5
Eddie is like Lester. Maybe he is not in the same conversation as the true elites, but he is more than a #2. I hope the Red Sox do the smart thing and lock E-Rod up to a four or year contract.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,298
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Post by radiohix on Apr 29, 2021 14:11:51 GMT -5
One thing to remember about Eddie: He never had arm problems (Forearm strain, elbow sorness...) and it's easy to understand when you see him pitch, his delivery is smooth and effortless (I remember Francona saying he wasn't worried about Lester's jump in workload when he went from 63 IP in 2007 to 210 in 2008 because of his delivery). We tend to forget when qualifying him as "injury prone" that his problems were related to a knees condition, that got fixed with surgery, and the only significant injury he got after that was also lower body related after a freak accident when Toronto's Gurriel attempted a dumb dive into first base. Extend him.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 22, 2021 4:34:08 GMT -5
ERod is a tough one for me. I really need to see the contract but right now, I’m leaning towards not wanting to go more than $15m per season but I need to see the rest of his season. This isn’t about what he’s worth on the open market. It’s about what’s smart for the Red Sox. Ultimately, need to see the numbers for him Versus other options. I’d love to see them go after a guy like Rodon, but does it make sense to go double lefty at the top of the rotation? Do you want 2 big money starters? Then fill in with Eovaldi and cheaper options. Does a big salary fit into the long term budget? They hopefully, will start filling in the roster consistently with cheap options, so does that allow you to add big salaries at the top? Do you prefer 2 15-18 pitchers or a 30m plus depth guys? Personally, I want another ACE pitcher to pair with Sale at the top.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 22, 2021 7:26:03 GMT -5
ERod is a tough one for me. I really need to see the contract but right now, I’m leaning towards not wanting to go more than $15m per season but I need to see the rest of his season. This isn’t about what he’s worth on the open market. It’s about what’s smart for the Red Sox. Ultimately, need to see the numbers for him Versus other options. I’d love to see them go after a guy like Rodon, but does it make sense to go double lefty at the top of the rotation? Do you want 2 big money starters? Then fill in with Eovaldi and cheaper options. Does a big salary fit into the long term budget? They hopefully, will start filling in the roster consistently with cheap options, so does that allow you to add big salaries at the top? Do you prefer 2 15-18 pitchers or a 30m plus depth guys? Personally, I want another ACE pitcher to pair with Sale at the top. I think ERod is a tough one for all of us here who have watched him and are followers of advanced analytics as his numbers don't always align with what we see. A stat that I like is whip, maybe a bit old school but it doesn't lie much. If you are good at keeping guys off the bases it always matters and ERod has a career 1.3 which is just ok to decent but not good. I think 15 is fair, based on his history some years that would be a bargain and others not so much. This might be a good player to do a BB type move. Let him get to FA and find out what his market is as it might not be that high but it might be closer to 18-20. If the Sox could get him LT at 15 I would be happy but not sure that is what the market will say. A bit of a head scratcher. I would like another ace at the top and yes a righty would be preferred. I like ERod as a 3.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 22, 2021 7:46:37 GMT -5
ERod is a tough one for me. I really need to see the contract but right now, I’m leaning towards not wanting to go more than $15m per season but I need to see the rest of his season. This isn’t about what he’s worth on the open market. It’s about what’s smart for the Red Sox. Ultimately, need to see the numbers for him Versus other options. I’d love to see them go after a guy like Rodon, but does it make sense to go double lefty at the top of the rotation? Do you want 2 big money starters? Then fill in with Eovaldi and cheaper options. Does a big salary fit into the long term budget? They hopefully, will start filling in the roster consistently with cheap options, so does that allow you to add big salaries at the top? Do you prefer 2 15-18 pitchers or a 30m plus depth guys? Personally, I want another ACE pitcher to pair with Sale at the top. I think ERod is a tough one for all of us here who have watched him and are followers of advanced analytics as his numbers don't always align with what we see. A stat that I like is whip, maybe a bit old school but it doesn't lie much. If you are good at keeping guys off the bases it always matters and ERod has a career 1.3 which is just ok to decent but not good. I think 15 is fair, based on his history some years that would be a bargain and others not so much. This might be a good player to do a BB type move. Let him get to FA and find out what his market is as it might not be that high but it might be closer to 18-20. If the Sox could get him LT at 15 I would be happy but not sure that is what the market will say. A bit of a head scratcher. I would like another ace at the top and yes a righty would be preferred. I like ERod as a 3. Erod is probably a tough case for the whole league haha. The stuff is there, the underlying numbers are solid but he's not exactly produced consistent results. If he gets to the market and receives offers 3-5 years 14-18 range it wouldn't surprise me if he accepted the QO. I'd personally love if he took the QO and bet on himself.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,835
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jul 22, 2021 12:17:30 GMT -5
I think this upcoming offseason will be Chaims first chance to show what he can do with a big market teams money and he has a ton of options. Most contracts are coming off the books and with a great FA class and many extension eligible players he could really cement this team as a contender. At the moment what do you think he will or should do? Personally I think he should focus on resigning/ extending players next year by resigning Ottavino and maybe bringing back ERod on a relatively cheap contract and try to extend Xander and Raffy. If not I’d maybe try to bring in on the pitchers in the FA class because it’s stacked next year. Maybe a Scherzer or Thor are potential options and would really bolster the staff and would make a dominant rotation of Sale, FA, Eovaldi, Houck/ Pivetta/Whitlock I think his priorities should be in order; 1) Pick up the team option on Vazquez for ‘22 & sign him to a 2 year extension for ‘23 & ‘24 ($20m) 2) Extend J.D. for ‘23 & ‘24 ($40m) 3) Sign E. Rod 3 years $36m 4) Work on a Denver’s extension If E-Rod could be had for anything close to 3 years/$36M, CB would have already done it. If he goes to FA, he'll get offers for more than twice that much money and maybe three times as much. I'd be glad to have him back for 5 years/$90 million. You want SP, you pay.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 22, 2021 12:48:35 GMT -5
I think ERod is a tough one for all of us here who have watched him and are followers of advanced analytics as his numbers don't always align with what we see. A stat that I like is whip, maybe a bit old school but it doesn't lie much. If you are good at keeping guys off the bases it always matters and ERod has a career 1.3 which is just ok to decent but not good. I think 15 is fair, based on his history some years that would be a bargain and others not so much. This might be a good player to do a BB type move. Let him get to FA and find out what his market is as it might not be that high but it might be closer to 18-20. If the Sox could get him LT at 15 I would be happy but not sure that is what the market will say. A bit of a head scratcher. I would like another ace at the top and yes a righty would be preferred. I like ERod as a 3. Erod is probably a tough case for the whole league haha. The stuff is there, the underlying numbers are solid but he's not exactly produced consistent results. If he gets to the market and receives offers 3-5 years 14-18 range it wouldn't surprise me if he accepted the QO. I'd personally love if he took the QO and bet on himself. He's been incredibly consistent! By year since 2017:
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP
| 2017 | 4.19 | 3.87 | 3.97 | 4.26
| 2018 | 3.82 | 3.68 | 3.65 | 3.90
| 2019 | 3.81 | 3.59 | 3.86 | 4.10
| 2021
| 5.19
| 3.66
| 3.51
| 3.34
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This is about as consistent as you're ever going to see for a major league pitcher, and if anything there's a slight improving trend. This season has been his best yet, including both his best K/9 and his best BB/9 rates.
There is exactly one outlier in this table, and if you've watched most of his starts this season the cause of the outlier would be obvious (and is confirmed by his BABIP and xERA numbers): about as clear-cut a case of a bad luck stretch as you'll ever see.
He's only 28 too. I'd sign him to a 6/100 deal without having to think about it.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 22, 2021 13:04:32 GMT -5
Erod is probably a tough case for the whole league haha. The stuff is there, the underlying numbers are solid but he's not exactly produced consistent results. If he gets to the market and receives offers 3-5 years 14-18 range it wouldn't surprise me if he accepted the QO. I'd personally love if he took the QO and bet on himself. He's been incredibly consistent! By year since 2017:
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP
| 2017 | 4.19 | 3.87 | 3.97 | 4.26
| 2018 | 3.82 | 3.68 | 3.65 | 3.90
| 2019 | 3.81 | 3.59 | 3.86 | 4.10
| 2021
| 5.19
| 3.66
| 3.51
| 3.34
|
This is about as consistent as you're ever going to see for a major league pitcher, and if anything there's a slight improving trend. This season has been his best yet, including both his best K/9 and his best BB/9 rates.
There is exactly one outlier in this table, and if you've watched most of his starts this season the cause of the outlier would be obvious (and is confirmed by his BABIP and xERA numbers): about as clear-cut a case of a bad luck stretch as you'll ever see.
He's only 28 too. I'd sign him to a 6/100 deal without having to think about it.
Not to sound like a flip flopper but yes when you lay it out like that then I think I was definitely off track saying he's inconsistent so my bad on that. 6 years 100 would be a solid deal and depending on the bidding maybe even a little more would be fine with me. The more I think about it losing erod would be really tough to replace since they don't currently have any in house options to step in and be that 2/3 behind sale in the next 1-2 seasons maybe more. If you let erod go then you need to replace him with someone like scherzer who will cost more AAV but less term or a stroman/Gausman who probably cost roughly the same but last time either of them were in the AL East weren't putting up as good of numbers as ERod has.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 22, 2021 13:14:49 GMT -5
He's been incredibly consistent! By year since 2017:
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP
| 2017 | 4.19 | 3.87 | 3.97 | 4.26
| 2018 | 3.82 | 3.68 | 3.65 | 3.90
| 2019 | 3.81 | 3.59 | 3.86 | 4.10
| 2021
| 5.19
| 3.66
| 3.51
| 3.34
|
This is about as consistent as you're ever going to see for a major league pitcher, and if anything there's a slight improving trend. This season has been his best yet, including both his best K/9 and his best BB/9 rates.
There is exactly one outlier in this table, and if you've watched most of his starts this season the cause of the outlier would be obvious (and is confirmed by his BABIP and xERA numbers): about as clear-cut a case of a bad luck stretch as you'll ever see.
He's only 28 too. I'd sign him to a 6/100 deal without having to think about it.
Not to sound like a flip flopper but yes when you lay it out like that then I think I was definitely off track saying he's inconsistent so my bad on that. 6 years 100 would be a solid deal and depending on the bidding maybe even a little more would be fine with me. The more I think about it losing erod would be really tough to replace since they don't currently have any in house options to step in and be that 2/3 behind sale in the next 1-2 seasons maybe more. If you let erod go then you need to replace him with someone like scherzer who will cost more AAV but less term or a stroman/Gausman who probably cost roughly the same but last time either of them were in the AL East weren't putting up as good of numbers as ERod has. Yeah, I don't think the team can afford to lose Rodriguez from the rotation without replacing him with a comparable talent. Stroman and Gausman would be decent options but I think they'd be more expensive. Scherzer could work for the short term, and I'd kind of love that, if they're willing to blow through the CBT for a couple seasons. I wouldn't want to go 3+ seasons with him though.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,492
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Post by shagworthy on Jul 22, 2021 14:58:10 GMT -5
I think his priorities should be in order; 1) Pick up the team option on Vazquez for ‘22 & sign him to a 2 year extension for ‘23 & ‘24 ($20m) 2) Extend J.D. for ‘23 & ‘24 ($40m) 3) Sign E. Rod 3 years $36m 4) Work on a Denver’s extension If E-Rod could be had for anything close to 3 years/$36M, CB would have already done it. If he goes to FA, he'll get offers for more than twice that much money and maybe three times as much. I'd be glad to have him back for 5 years/$90 million. You want SP, you pay. I diverge on 1, option 1 to me is Devers before anyone else. I say the same about JD, he's low on my priority, if I'm Chaim, I let JD walk, use that money to extend Devers, and install him at 3b/DH. Erod is a serviceable pitcher when healthy, but still hasn't reached the potential everyone thought he had, and his stuff is regressing. Buyer beware on him is my stance, if you can get him on short money (say 2years @ 30 with incentives) then fine, otherwise for me it's nice knowing you. And then I use the money saved on JD to make sure Bogey stays a Red Sox for life, and because he's getting up in age that DH spot could be flexibly used to get him and Devers off their feet when necessary without sacrificing offense later in his deal.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2021 15:03:35 GMT -5
Erod is probably a tough case for the whole league haha. The stuff is there, the underlying numbers are solid but he's not exactly produced consistent results. If he gets to the market and receives offers 3-5 years 14-18 range it wouldn't surprise me if he accepted the QO. I'd personally love if he took the QO and bet on himself. He's been incredibly consistent! By year since 2017:
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP
| 2017 | 4.19 | 3.87 | 3.97 | 4.26
| 2018 | 3.82 | 3.68 | 3.65 | 3.90
| 2019 | 3.81 | 3.59 | 3.86 | 4.10
| 2021
| 5.19
| 3.66
| 3.51
| 3.34
|
This is about as consistent as you're ever going to see for a major league pitcher, and if anything there's a slight improving trend. This season has been his best yet, including both his best K/9 and his best BB/9 rates.
There is exactly one outlier in this table, and if you've watched most of his starts this season the cause of the outlier would be obvious (and is confirmed by his BABIP and xERA numbers): about as clear-cut a case of a bad luck stretch as you'll ever see.
He's only 28 too. I'd sign him to a 6/100 deal without having to think about it.
If E-Rod could be had for anything close to 3 years/$36M, CB would have already done it. If he goes to FA, he'll get offers for more than twice that much money and maybe three times as much. I'd be glad to have him back for 5 years/$90 million. You want SP, you pay. I diverge on 1, option 1 to me is Devers before anyone else. I say the same about JD, he's low on my priority, if I'm Chaim, I let JD walk, use that money to extend Devers, and install him at 3b/DH. Erod is a serviceable pitcher when healthy, but still hasn't reached the potential everyone thought he had, and his stuff is regressing. Buyer beware on him is my stance, if you can get him on short money (say 2years @ 30 with incentives) then fine, otherwise for me it's nice knowing you. And then I use the money saved on JD to make sure Bogey stays a Red Sox for life, and because he's getting up in age that DH spot could be flexibly used to get him and Devers off their feet when necessary without sacrificing offense later in his deal. Please read the post above and see that he's not regressing at all.
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