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Eduardo Rodriguez, now and going forward
shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,492
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Post by shagworthy on Jul 22, 2021 15:27:50 GMT -5
He's been incredibly consistent! By year since 2017:
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP
| 2017 | 4.19 | 3.87 | 3.97 | 4.26
| 2018 | 3.82 | 3.68 | 3.65 | 3.90
| 2019 | 3.81 | 3.59 | 3.86 | 4.10
| 2021
| 5.19
| 3.66
| 3.51
| 3.34
|
This is about as consistent as you're ever going to see for a major league pitcher, and if anything there's a slight improving trend. This season has been his best yet, including both his best K/9 and his best BB/9 rates.
There is exactly one outlier in this table, and if you've watched most of his starts this season the cause of the outlier would be obvious (and is confirmed by his BABIP and xERA numbers): about as clear-cut a case of a bad luck stretch as you'll ever see.
He's only 28 too. I'd sign him to a 6/100 deal without having to think about it.
I diverge on 1, option 1 to me is Devers before anyone else. I say the same about JD, he's low on my priority, if I'm Chaim, I let JD walk, use that money to extend Devers, and install him at 3b/DH. Erod is a serviceable pitcher when healthy, but still hasn't reached the potential everyone thought he had, and his stuff is regressing. Buyer beware on him is my stance, if you can get him on short money (say 2years @ 30 with incentives) then fine, otherwise for me it's nice knowing you. And then I use the money saved on JD to make sure Bogey stays a Red Sox for life, and because he's getting up in age that DH spot could be flexibly used to get him and Devers off their feet when necessary without sacrificing offense later in his deal. Please read the post above and see that he's not regressing at all. When he came up he was regularly 94-96 with his fastball, he's now what regularly 90-93? I call that regression in my book. He's been fortunate to get away with diminished velocity, maybe he's learned how to pitch better with the stuff he has, but I'm not onboard with making him a priority re-sign. If he can be had for fair value, sure, but I think everyone overvalues him too much just because we don't have a replacement for him and that's a dangerous precedent to set that has long term impact on the financial and positional flexibility this team would need to be sustainable.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2021 15:33:56 GMT -5
Please read the post above and see that he's not regressing at all. When he came up he was regularly 94-96 with his fastball, he's now what regularly 90-93? I call that regression in my book. He's been fortunate to get away with diminished velocity, maybe he's learned how to pitch better with the stuff he has, but I'm not onboard with making him a priority re-sign. If he can be had for fair value, sure, but I think everyone overvalues him too much just because we don't have a replacement for him and that's a dangerous precedent to set that has long term impact on the financial and positional flexibility this team would need to be sustainable. Good major league pitchers all go through the same thing. The velocity goes down and the command gets better. He's throwing all of his pitches pretty well now, unlike when he was young and could barely throw anything but the fastball and changeup. I remember in some of those games his first two seasons, he would only throw those 2 pitches.
Command is way more important than velocity.
If they let him walk, they'd have to pay a lot to replace him. So that kind of diminishes the sustainability point.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,298
Member is Online
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Post by radiohix on Jul 22, 2021 15:37:43 GMT -5
When he came up he was regularly 94-96 with his fastball, he's now what regularly 90-93? I call that regression in my book. He's been fortunate to get away with diminished velocity, maybe he's learned how to pitch better with the stuff he has, but I'm not onboard with making him a priority re-sign. If he can be had for fair value, sure, but I think everyone overvalues him too much just because we don't have a replacement for him and that's a dangerous precedent to set that has long term impact on the financial and positional flexibility this team would need to be sustainable. Good major league pitchers all go through the same thing. The velocity goes down and the command gets better. He's throwing all of his pitches pretty well now, unlike when he was young and could barely throw anything but the fastball and changeup. I remember in some of those games his first two seasons, he would only throw those 2 pitches. Rodriguez when he was throwing 94-96: 7.8% Swinging Strikes Rate Rodriguez when pitching with "diminished velocity": 11.4% Swinging Strikes Rate
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 22, 2021 15:41:22 GMT -5
Velocity dropping a bit doesn't always equal regressing stuff.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,492
|
Post by shagworthy on Jul 22, 2021 15:41:45 GMT -5
When he came up he was regularly 94-96 with his fastball, he's now what regularly 90-93? I call that regression in my book. He's been fortunate to get away with diminished velocity, maybe he's learned how to pitch better with the stuff he has, but I'm not onboard with making him a priority re-sign. If he can be had for fair value, sure, but I think everyone overvalues him too much just because we don't have a replacement for him and that's a dangerous precedent to set that has long term impact on the financial and positional flexibility this team would need to be sustainable. Good major league pitchers all go through the same thing. The velocity goes down and the command gets better. He's throwing all of his pitches pretty well now, unlike when he was young and could barely throw anything but the fastball and changeup. I remember in some of those games his first two seasons, he would only throw those 2 pitches.
Command is way more important than velocity.
Fair and I agree on command, but without the velocity his margin for error goes down as well. We saw it with Price year 2 when he started loosing ticks off his fastball, when he missed the batters did not. I'm not against extending/re-signing him, I just don't think he's as high up on the priority list. Devers is a generational talent offensively, I don't want the same mistakes made that saw others like him leave the Sox in FA.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2021 15:46:46 GMT -5
Good major league pitchers all go through the same thing. The velocity goes down and the command gets better. He's throwing all of his pitches pretty well now, unlike when he was young and could barely throw anything but the fastball and changeup. I remember in some of those games his first two seasons, he would only throw those 2 pitches. Rodriguez when he was throwing 94-96: 7.8% Swinging Strikes Rate Rodriguez when pitching with "diminished velocity": 11.4% Swinging Strikes Rate In fact, here's his whiff rate on just his 4 seam fastball. Despite the diminished velocity, it's more than double of his rookie season.
Also, check out the XWOBA vs WOBA this year.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 22, 2021 18:20:24 GMT -5
Good major league pitchers all go through the same thing. The velocity goes down and the command gets better. He's throwing all of his pitches pretty well now, unlike when he was young and could barely throw anything but the fastball and changeup. I remember in some of those games his first two seasons, he would only throw those 2 pitches. Rodriguez when he was throwing 94-96: 7.8% Swinging Strikes Rate Rodriguez when pitching with "diminished velocity": 11.4% Swinging Strikes Rate Looks like the trump card.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 23, 2021 7:57:56 GMT -5
Erod is probably a tough case for the whole league haha. The stuff is there, the underlying numbers are solid but he's not exactly produced consistent results. If he gets to the market and receives offers 3-5 years 14-18 range it wouldn't surprise me if he accepted the QO. I'd personally love if he took the QO and bet on himself. He's been incredibly consistent! By year since 2017:
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP
| 2017 | 4.19 | 3.87 | 3.97 | 4.26
| 2018 | 3.82 | 3.68 | 3.65 | 3.90
| 2019 | 3.81 | 3.59 | 3.86 | 4.10
| 2021
| 5.19
| 3.66
| 3.51
| 3.34
|
This is about as consistent as you're ever going to see for a major league pitcher, and if anything there's a slight improving trend. This season has been his best yet, including both his best K/9 and his best BB/9 rates.
There is exactly one outlier in this table, and if you've watched most of his starts this season the cause of the outlier would be obvious (and is confirmed by his BABIP and xERA numbers): about as clear-cut a case of a bad luck stretch as you'll ever see.
He's only 28 too. I'd sign him to a 6/100 deal without having to think about it.
Yes his underlying analytics have always been good but as the statement above says the results haven't always been there. This year his WAR is .3, not exactly what you would hope for out of your #2 or #3 starter on a contending team. I like him and agree it would be expensive to replace him so I hope they extend him and I think 6/100 sounds about right. I think I have also just expected to see better results after the 2019 season and how he has looked at times, his best days could be in front of him.
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 23, 2021 8:09:51 GMT -5
There already has been a heated discussion about ERods stats in his "enigma-thread" forum.soxprospects.com/thread/5853/rod-2021-another-enigmaMy personal opinion: he is a lot better than his ERA looks. His xERA is 1.59 runs lower than his ERA. Nonetheless he loses leverage on the free agent market. I wouldn't be surprised if he looks for a 1 year contract to restablish his value. But maybe CB swoops in with a decent offer. I wouldn't mind signing him for 5 years.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 23, 2021 8:20:42 GMT -5
He's been incredibly consistent! By year since 2017:
| ERA | xERA | FIP | xFIP
| 2017 | 4.19 | 3.87 | 3.97 | 4.26
| 2018 | 3.82 | 3.68 | 3.65 | 3.90
| 2019 | 3.81 | 3.59 | 3.86 | 4.10
| 2021
| 5.19
| 3.66
| 3.51
| 3.34
|
This is about as consistent as you're ever going to see for a major league pitcher, and if anything there's a slight improving trend. This season has been his best yet, including both his best K/9 and his best BB/9 rates.
There is exactly one outlier in this table, and if you've watched most of his starts this season the cause of the outlier would be obvious (and is confirmed by his BABIP and xERA numbers): about as clear-cut a case of a bad luck stretch as you'll ever see.
He's only 28 too. I'd sign him to a 6/100 deal without having to think about it.
Yes his underlying analytics have always been good but as the statement above says the results haven't always been there. This year his WAR is .3, not exactly what you would hope for out of your #2 or #3 starter on a contending team. I like him and agree it would be expensive to replace him so I hope they extend him and I think 6/100 sounds about right. I think I have also just expected to see better results after the 2019 season and how he has looked at times, his best days could be in front of him. That's bWAR which is based on runs allowed (with adjustments for opposition, defense, etc.), so citing it is essentially just another way of pointing to his ERA. fWAR is based on FIP and they have him at 1.9.
Besides that, though, it looks like we don't disagree. I guess to sum up my view here:
1. They need a pitcher in Rodriguez' spot in the rotation, whether it's Rodriguez himself, Gausman, Stroman, or whomever. 2. I'm hopeful that Rodriguez' inflated ERA makes him the most affordable option of those guys (as well as the youngest); certainly Gausman figures to get a big raise. But I don't know if teams even look at ERA these days.
3. Make him a career Red Sox! People don't seem to have the attachment to him they did for, say, JBJ, or even Benintendi, but he's played his whole career here and it's nice to keep guys around.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 3, 2021 15:19:48 GMT -5
Before last night's game, I pulled over and texted my buddy that Eddie has 5 or 6 starts in September to show whether he's a 2-yr/$25m guy or a 4-yr/$80m guy. Sadly, his chances at something like 5-yr/$120m have passed him by.
Based on last night, he looks like he wants to get paid. It would be nice to see him get through 7 IP, though, if he wants something close to 4/$80m.
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